Think back to draft season 2019. German Marquez was being considered by some as a potential breakout starting pitcher who could make the jump into the ace tier. In 2018 he posted a record of 14-11 with a 3.77 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9. As expected his home/road splits were influenced by Coors Field, but with a 48.5% ground ball rate and a 28.2% strikeout rate, he seemed poised to overcome the home field handicap. Unfortunately for Marquez, and anyone who invested an early draft pick to obtain his services, the breakout did not come to fruition. His numbers regressed to a 4.76 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 9.1 K/9 while still managing a 12-5 record. These results caused many to write him off moving forward and chalk him up as “just another Rockies pitcher who you can’t trust,” but let’s take a closer look at some underlying stats and pitch mix trends over the last three seasons, and perhaps I can convince you otherwise.

First, examining his home/road splits, its not a surprise to see him fare better away from Coors Field, the undisputed leader in boosting offensive output among MLB ballparks. His away numbers do stand out considerably feeding into the argument that you can only trust him away from Coors, but you may be surprised to see very impressive FIP and xFIP numbers for both home and away in 2018 and 2019. This suggests that Marquez should have been equally effective pitching in home and away games. 

In looking at the batted ball data between the two seasons, the flyball and line-drive rates were practically identical, and the groundball rate increased slightly in 2019 from 48.5 to 50.2 percent. One thing to note with this data is that his HR/FB ratio increased by 28 percent in 2019 pointing to some underlying issue or change with his effectiveness. So perhaps you may think that he just got unlucky in 2019, but it doesn’t look that way as his BABIP dropped from the previous season, .304 versus .311. There was a noticeable increase in the exit velocities of batted balls, by 1.7 MPH, resulting in a four percent increase in hard-hit rate to 43.1%. These numbers placed Marquez in the bottom three percent for exit velocity and bottom 6 percent for hard-hit rate in the league. His Statcast data shows that he never tops in the league at limiting hard contact, but there was a significant difference between seasons. This drop in performance was a common trend for his expected stats as shown in the table below.

As mentioned earlier, Marquez’s strikeout rate decreased in 2019 from 10.6 to 9.1 K/9. This points to inefficiency in his pitch mix or the pitches themselves. Turns out, it was both. In 2019 his slider was bludgeoned by opposing batters to the tune of a .295 average and .583 SLG, a .133 increase in BA and .335 increase in SLG. The slider also accounted for 11 of the 29 home runs he gave up that season. Now not to make any excuses, but it needs to be noted that Marquez was not the only pitcher to struggle to throw an effective slider in 2019 due to the differences of the baseball, namely the decreased seam height. It was reported that Marquez faded the slider around midseason due to its poor performance for an alternate curveball, but it did not play off his normal curve well enough either. 

Marquez’s overall pitch mix was altered as he tried to navigate the 2019 season with a lame-duck slider. The most notable differences were a decrease in four-seam fastball usage from 46.0 to 35.5 percent and an increase in sinker usage from nine to 17 percent. This was likely the result of a pitcher struggling with his normal put-away pitch, seeing fewer strikeouts as a result, and trying to pitch to more soft contact to get outs. Unfortunately, the sinker was one of his worst pitches as well with a .364 BA against and a .545 SLG. The effectiveness of his four-seamer and curveball was consistent with the 2018 season, and his overall swinging strike percentage actually slightly increased in 2019 but the overall results just weren’t there.

Judging by the data presented above, two outcomes were plausible for Marquez: continue the struggles of 2019 or return to what worked for his successful 2018 season. Thankfully in 2020 his pitch mix looks much more in line with his successful 2018 campaign. The four-seamer usage is back up to 38 percent and the sinker usage is down to 11 percent.  Additionally, his “old” slider is back and effective once again with a wSL/C (slider runs above average per 100 pitches) of 4.70 and a Whiff percentage of 47.3 percent. The revamped pitch selection and the improved slider have lead to a stat line of a 2.25 ERA and 1.09 WHIP so far in 2020, including two starts in Coors Field. Adding his 2020 stat line to the tables above show he is off to a start that is much more in line with his impressive 2018 season than last year. The Statcast data backs up this early performance with numbers that look strikingly similar to his breakout 2018 season.  

As long as Marquez pitches half of his games in Coors Field, it will most likely keep him from fully reaching the level of a fantasy ace, but there is a lot to like about his pitching profile.  He keeps the ball on the ground about 50 percent of the time and has the stuff to be a strikeout-plus per inning guy. I would argue he is an intelligent pitcher who can realize what is and isn’t working in his arsenal and make adjustments to increase his effectiveness. He is also only 25 years old and should be viewed as only just coming into his prime as a major league pitcher.  He did sign an extension with the Rockies last year which would keep him in Colorado thru the 2023 season, with an option in 2024, so he is most likely stuck with Coors for awhile still barring a trade. Regardless, I think the numbers show that Marquez can prove to be a very valuable and underrated contributor to any fantasy pitching staff in 2020 and beyond.