51. Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins (Age: 26, PREVIOUS RANK: 85)

The AL had such a strong rookie class last year, Joe Ryan didn’t even get a ROY vote. That’s not at all a knock on his play, and maybe it’s just me, but I had forgotten Joe Ryan was a rookie last year. Maybe it’s because he spent so much time as a strong prospect in the Rays’ system, or that he was very stable in his first big league season he seemed like a seasoned vet. A 3.55 ERA, hundredths of a run lower than his xERA, averaging 5.44 innings per start, and good control with 9.24 K/9. In fact, his minor league track record suggests there might be upside in the strikeout rate, as he routinely struck out more than 12 /9IP through the minors.  Look for more of the same or even some improvement from Ryan as he gets more comfortable in his big-league uniform. (Ken Balderston)

52. Ricky Tiedemann, Toronto Blue Jays (Age: 20, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Not many pitching prospects have risen as quickly as Tiedemann over the last year. He was almost an afterthought as a third-round pick in the 2021 FYPD, a tweener who didn’t get drafted the previous year but was eligible after transferring to Long Beach JC. Once the Jays cleaned up his mechanics, which helped add 3 mph to his plus fastball which now sits 95-96 and touches higher, but also improved his slider and change which are looking like above-average pitches as well. Ricky managed 11 innings at AA in his first pro season, but the Jays didn’t exactly block him this offseason either. If he can continue to strike batters out at a double-digit rate, we might just see Tiedemann make his major league debut this summer. (Ken Balderston)

53. Drew Rasmussen, Tamp Bay Rays (Age: 27, PREVIOUS RANK: 92)

The Rays sure do know a lot about run prevention, and Rasmussen is a prime example of their development. Primarily a fastball pitcher through the minors, and first season with the Rays, Drew developed a cutter last year sharing about half his normal fastball usage of 65% with the new pitch. The results are far fewer strikeouts compared to his minor league totals, but also fewer walks and runs allowed. Rasmussen matched his 2021 ERA of 2.84 and was again very stingy with home runs. There might be some hidden upside here if Drew can start striking batters out at a near 30% rate again, but the Rays are likely quite happy to just prevent runs and win games. (Ken Balderston)

54. Hunter Brown, Houston Astros (Age: 24, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Brown emerged as a top pitching prospect last year, after dominating the incredibly tough AAA PCL league to the tune of a 2.55 ERA in 106 IP, then being shut down for the Astros down the stretch, mostly out of the pen. Hunter throws a fastball sitting 96-97, a curve, slider, and generates a ton of ground balls, with a 64.7% rate in the majors and a ~50% average throughout the minors. Hunter has also struck batters out at a double-digit rate through most of his minor league career and had nearly 10 per 9 (9.74) in his major league debut. The only thing holding him back is playing time, as the Astros already have a full rotation, but rarely does a team go a full season without an injury to their starting staff, and Hunter Brown should be first in line to step in. (Ken Balderston)

55. Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals (Age: 26, PREVIOUS RANK: 112)

It was a long road to success for the former Royals’ top prospect, after two unimpressive stints in the big leagues, Brady looked to change the narrative in 2022. After starting the year in the pen, there were some mixed results through the end of June, with a 4.33 ERA and less than a strikeout per inning. The rest of the way went very well for Singer, as his final 16 starts saw him throw 99 innings with 101 K’s and a 2.63 ERA including 8 starts of at least 6 innings and one earned run or less. His WHIP was amazingly consistent at 1.14 in both splits, and as mostly a two-pitch pitcher (fastball/slider with his change usage breaking 10% from time to time) so it will be interesting to see which version of Singer we see in 2023. (Ken Balderston)

56. Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels (Age: 23, PREVIOUS RANK: 75)

Admittedly a favorite of mine, Detmers had an up-and-down season as a rookie, but it’s somehow hard to believe he was only 22 years old for most of the season. Armed with a true four-pitch mix, he throws a four-seam fastball, slider, curve, and change all more than 10% of the time, though primarily fastball-slider to lefties. The fastball comes in at the low to mid 90s, but he really commands his slider and curve, which he can throw on the black seemingly at will. Reid has already established himself as an important member of the Angels rotation, and will hopefully improve on his already impressive ERA of 3.77 and WHIP of 1.21. (Ken Balderston)

57. Kyle Harrison, San Francisco Giants (Age: 21, PREVIOUS RANK: 152)

What a ‘Giant’ leap up the ranks for Harrison, and deservedly so. After an impressive season in 2021, Harrison was gaining serious momentum but we were still looking at a pitcher who had dominated the lower levels of the minors, not entirely uncommon. He turned it up a notch in 2022, dominating high-A ball to start, and after only 29 innings at the level, was promoted to AA at the age of 20 years old. Kyle more than held his own, maintaining an elite strikeout rate of 13.61 K/9, and limiting runs with a 3.11 ERA. Harrison’s command was pressured at the advanced level, falling back into the 4.25 walks/9 range, and giving up 11 home runs in only 84 innings. This is something to keep an eye on as Harrison is an extreme fly ball pitcher registering a measly 35.6% ground ball rate. On the flip side, Oracle Park is one of the most difficult places to hit the ball out of, and a hot start by Kyle and the Giants could have him looking at a major league debut as early as June. (Ken Balderston)

58. Daniel Espino, Cleveland Guardians (Age: 22, PREVIOUS RANK: 102)

Espino has been around for some time, a former first-round pick of the Guardians in the 2019 FYPD has dominated at each stop in the minors. Few prospects have the strikeout ability of Daniel Espino, who has recorded at least 13.5 k/9 in his last 4 minor league stops and managed an incredible 45.6 K%-BB% in AA last year. Now, this is where the caution comes in, as that last ratio was in only 4 starts, due to patellar tendonitis and eventually a sore shoulder. Injuries are always a concern with pitching prospects, but not everyone is comfortable with those who are already showing wear and tear. It might be the ideal time to trade for Espino if you’re willing to trade caution for the upside here. (Ken Balderston)

59. Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 23, PREVIOUS RANK: 36)

This time last year, Shane Baz was nearly universally considered to be the top pitching prospect in baseball, with an effortless high 90’s fastball, a slider thrown as hard as 92 mph, and a tumbling changeup. Then, the worst case scenario occurred, as Shane had a ‘right elbow sprain’ eventually revealed to require Tommy John surgery, wiping out nearly all his 2022 season, and likely all of 2023 as well. This could create an interesting opportunity, as the former top pitching prospect is now ranked behind 7 other pitching prospects, many of whom have yet to make their major league debut. If you’re comfortable with modern-day recoveries to TJ, this might be an opportune buying situation in dynasty leagues. (Ken Balderston)

60. Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox (Age: 35, PREVIOUS RANK: 34)

On the surface, it was a difficult year for Lance Lynn, who began the year with a knee injury requiring surgery and forced him to miss the first four weeks. When he returned, the results were not good, as he threw 47.2 innings in his first 9 games back, with a 6.42 ERA, with a 1.36 WHIP, and 10 home runs allowed. There is optimism for the grizzled workhorse, in his last 12 starts yielding a 2.43 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 75:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. While Lynn doesn’t have the upside of the kids ranked ahead of him, he’s battled tested, and proven to be able to pitch a lot of high-quality innings. A sneaky good addition for those who are in win-now mode. (Ken Balderston)

61. Tyler Mahle, Minnesota Twins (AGE: 28, PREVIOUS RANK: 31)

I don’t think Tyler Mahle gets enough credit in fantasy circles to be quite honest, and that includes myself. The guy is just a good pitcher, and if he can throw another 180 innings as he did in 2021 you’re looking at a good SP3 type of player. Mahles ERA for last year was a sub-optimal 4.40 but a quick check underneath the hood reveals that his xFIP 3.87.

Mahle did lose one mile per hour off of his fastball last year so that will be something to check in with during Spring Training. After the trade to Minnesota last year his strikeouts dried up but I will chalk up his subpar performance being due to a new league/team/environment. I expect a rebound for Mahle this year and he’s a solid go out and trade for him option in my opinion. (Ryan Epperson)

62. Jordan Montgomery, St. Louis Cardinals (AGE: 30, PREVIOUS RANK: 81)

Like Mahle, I think Montgomery could probably move up our rankings a little bit more than at 62. Sure, he’s getting a little long in the tooth at 30 years old (my god that pains me to say) but in dynasty, I generally plan for three years out and he should still be a solid contributor in his age 33 season as well.

He had a slight dip in his K/9 last year (7.97 -> 9.27) but Lucas Kelly over at Fangraphs just had an excellent article on SwStr%. The article explains how it correlates well with the strikeout rate and Montgomery has always been above average in that regard. I think I talked myself into going out and trying to acquire him this off-season as his stock may be down. (Ryan Epperson)

63. Jeffrey Springs, Tampa Bay Rays (AGE: 30, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

It seems that Springs is the fantasy darling this off-season with a lot of hype surrounding the 30-year-old. After not starting a game since 2018 with the Rangers, Tampa Bay finally gave him the go-ahead last year where he logged 25 starts over the course of the year. His WHIP for last year was a minuscule 1.07 with a K-BB% (which measures the difference between K% and BB%) of 20.06 where the average is around 14.

The Rays could always do what they do and invent something new where he doesn’t start, but I’d say there’s a 99% chance of Springs sticking in the rotation. He’ll never give you more than five innings a start most likely, but most pitchers don’t nowadays. (Ryan Epperson)

64. Kodai Senga, New York Mets (AGE: 30, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

We obviously have very little to go on for Senga, and I don’t put much stock into foreign league equivalences. The Mets sure seem to like him though, as do the projections. Using Steamer, Senga is projected to have a K/9 of 10.26 and an ERA of 3.73. There are a lot of ways this can go but I like that projection and think it’s a nice middle-of-the-road expectation for Senga in his first year. (Ryan Epperson)

65. Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins (AGE: 25, PREVIOUS RANK: 13)

I’m still in on Rogers and consider him a solid buy-low candidate as his manager may have soured on him after the disastrous `22 season. The question seems to be if 2021 was a fluke year for a decent pitcher or if last season is more indicative of the skills he possesses. He dealt with back issues for half of the year landing on the disabled list twice (back spasms, and then a lat strain) which would seemingly mess with his mechanics.

I will hedge my bet and say he lands somewhere in between the two (lame, I know.) While he may not be an ace, I think he can come back up to a low-end SP2 or good SP3 for you and Steamer agrees to have the young pitcher from New Mexico having a 3.78 ERA with a rebound of his K-BB% to 16.2%. (Ryan Epperson)

66. Patrick Sandoval, Los Angeles Angels (AGE: 26, PREVIOUS RANK: 65)

It doesn’t seem like a good thing when a pitcher has a 10% BB rate, nor does it seem wise to be interested in a pitcher that consistently has a WHIP above 1.30. But yet, here we are, ranking Sandoval relatively high.

The issue with Sandoval has been known for a while now, he struggles against right-handed hitters and doesn’t have a go-to pitch against them, mainly relying on his fastball that is just clobbered (maybe don’t do that? I don’t know.) Somehow he makes it work but he`ll always be a bit of risk if he runs into a few right-handed heavy lineups. (Ryan Epperson)

67. Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays (AGE: 33, PREVIOUS RANK: 58)

Bassitt is just a solid SP3 where you can put him in your lineup and leave him there, he’s not going to wow you with anything but contribute solid ratios and a 3.50 ERA.  Moving to Toronto doesn’t move the needle much one way or the other, he should still be in line for the same number of wins.

Much like a good pair of broken-in boots, Bassitt is ostensibly getting better with age. He is 33 however and eventually, like boots, he will begin to break down. (Ryan Epperson)

68. Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins (AGE: 24, PREVIOUS RANK: 100)

He’s going to miss a lot of bats and limit hard contact, whether through balls or strikes. In 71 innings in the Majors last season, Cabrera was the proud owner of a 3.01 ERA but the underlying metrics don’t believe in it as his FIP was 4.59. His K-BB% is an average 14.4% due to the fact that his walk rate is an alarming 11.3%.

As the book comes out more and more on Cabrera, you will see hitters waiting for Cabrera to throw a strike as he only threw in the zone 41% of the time.

He has a rotation spot secured to start out the season, and the fantasy world is going to want to see if he’s able to make changes after the hitter does. (Ryan Epperson)

69. Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox (AGE: 33, PREVIOUS RANK: 29)

Here’s the deal, Chris Sale has thrown less than 200 innings in the past three seasons as he has dealt with a myriad of injuries including a torn UCL, a stress fracture in a rib, and a broken finger on his throwing hand. I don’t think anyone has a solid idea of what Sale will accomplish this year. Looking at the various projections, the one that I think will be most reflective of his season would be the ATC projection which has him throwing 128 innings with a 3.66 ERA and a K-BB% of 21.1%. (Ryan Epperson)

70. Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox (AGE: 26, PREVIOUS RANK: 40)

I still think in the long-term Kopech is going to be an elite closer as soon as they figure out this starting thing might not be for him. With Liam Hendricks on the shelf for the foreseeable future, it might come this year if Kopech once again struggles with his control. His stuff just plays up so much better when he can be full effort for an inning or two.

As of now, I’m not sure how confident I would be throwing Kopech out there at the SP position unless it was in a favorable matchup. (Ryan Epperson)

71. JACK FLAHERTY, ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (AGE: 27, PREVIOUS RANK: 18)

Once a darling of the dynasty world, after putting up a combined 7.0 WAR over 347.1 innings in 2018 and 2019, Jack Flaherty’s 2022 was one to forget.  His K/9 dipped to 8.25, his BB/9 ballooned to 5.50, and his FIP and xERA hovered near 5.00. Flaherty headed into 2022 with shoulder discomfort and the Cardinals’ training staff could not treat him because of the lockout. After allegedly speeding up his own rehab and debuting on June 15, Flaherty was back on the IL after only eight innings. He ended the season on a positive note, getting back on the mound on September 5 and pitching 28 innings over the remainder of the season. While the 28 innings were not ace-like, they did evidence signs of improvement. Those holding Flaherty on their dynasty squads have to hope that those 28 innings can serve as a launching point for 2023. (The Roto Red)

72. ROANSY CONTRERAS, PITTSBURGH PIRATES (AGE: 23, PREVIOUS RANK: 87)

After an abbreviated 2021 because of forearm tightness, Roansy Contreras entered 2022 as a top prospect (No. 80 at Baseball America, No. 71 at MLB.com, No. 41 at Fangraphs, No. 83 at The Athletic). He went on to pitch a combined 129.1 innings between Triple-A and the Majors. There were a couple of concerning trends after his promotion including his 12.06 K/9 tumbling to 8.15 K/9 and his groundball percentage dropping from 43.8% to 36.4% (all while running a below-average .257 BABIP). On the positive side, Contreras ran a 30.4% Called Strike Plus Whiff Rate (CSW%), which was ranked 32^nd in all of baseball (Min. 75 IP). Big picture:  a healthy 2022 season from Contreras was a very good sign and a strong 2023 should cause Contreras’s ranking to skyrocket if he can gain back some of the strikeouts that he lost in Pittsburgh last year. (The Roto Red)

73. LANCE McCULLERS JR., HOUSTON ASTROS (AGE: 29, PREVIOUS RANK: 41)

Lance McCullers Jr. remains a talented, yet flawed pitcher who consistently has trouble staying on the mound. 2022 was much of the same—47.2 IP, 8 starts, 2.27 ERA, 50 strikeouts, 22 walks, 1.24 WHIP. McCullers is an elite barrel misser, as his 4.9% barrel rate would have ranked third among starting pitchers (tied with Tyler Anderson). Of course he is; McCullers throws two elite breaking pitchers combining for a 51% usage rate. One interesting change to McCullers’s 2022 pitch mix was an increased usage of his cutter, going from 1.5% in 2021 to 7.8% in 2022. The cutter returned strong results—he did not give up a hit and it boasted elite spin rate and movement measures. Better health and increased cutter usage may unlock a new level for McCullers and open the door for a return to the Top 50 in our rankings. (The Roto Red)

74. JON GRAY, TEXAS RANGERS (AGE: 31, PREVIOUS RANK: 98)

The fantasy baseball world anxiously awaited Jon Gray’s departure from Coors Field. If you were expecting him to immediately reach ace status, you were likely disappointed. He hurled 127.1 innings with 134 strikeouts, a 3.96 ERA, and a 1.13 WHIP. Injuries were a serious problem in 2022, as he was placed on the injured list on three separate occasions (right middle finger blister, left knee sprain, left oblique strain). During his longest, healthiest stretch of the 2022 season, from May 3 through July 31, Gray started 16 games, went 7-4, threw 93 innings, had 105 strikeouts, and walked 30 batters, resulting in a 3.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a 3.14 FIP. That 16-game stretch should give dynasty owners hope that a healthy 2023 in Texas can be Gray’s true breakout. (The Roto Red)

75. SONNY GRAY, MINNESOTA TWINS (AGE: 33, PREVIOUS RANK: 61)

In 2022, Sonny Gray had his best surface-level statistical season since 2019. His season line of 119.2 innings with eight wins, 117 strikeouts, 3.08 ERA, and 1.13 WHIP was strong, even with three stints on the injured list. But a look under the hood reveals some concerns. Gray had his worst strikeout season since his time with the Bronx Bombers, registering an 8.8 K/9. He gave up more hard contact than in any of the previous five seasons (26.4% hard contact percentage). He also averaged less than five innings per start for the first time in his career. Gray has two pitches with elite spin rate (fastball and curveball) that led to missing a lot of barrels (5.5% barrel rate), but he had trouble getting whiffs (20^th percentile) and swings outside the zone (24^th percentile). At 33, Gray remains an effective starting pitcher, but dynasty owners have to hope that he can stay healthy in 2023, average greater than five innings per start, and bring his strikeout rate back up over 9.0 K/9. (The Roto Red)

76. BRAYAN BELLO, BOSTON RED SOX (AGE: 23, PREVIOUS RANK: 174)

After dominating the minors in 2022, the 23-year-old Brayan Bello was promoted to Boston. He made 11 starts and pitched 57.1 innings, but the results were a mixed bag. He walked over 4 batters per 9 innings and struck out less than a batter per inning. On a positive note, he did miss barrels at a good clip (80^th percentile) and he ended the season strong (31.1 innings of 2.59 ERA and a 31/12 K/BB in September and October). The young fireballer is penciled into Boston’s 2023 rotation and has plenty of time to develop. Dynasty owners can dream that the strikeout prowess that he showed in the minors in 2021 and 2022 (12.28 K/9) will return. If it does, watch Bello turn into a dominating starter for years to come. (The Roto Red)

77. BOBBY MILLER, LOS ANGELES DODGERS (AGE: 23, PREVIOUS RANK: 115)

After impressing in 2021, Bobby Miller continued to do so in 2022, reaching Triple-A in August. Albeit in a small sample size, he produced good results at Oklahoma City, pitching 21.1 innings with a 28/6 K/BB ratio and a 3.38 ERA. Triple-A batters mustered only a .218 batting average. Miller enters 2023 with the high expectations of universally being considered a top prospect and on the precipice of Los Angeles. If his development continues at the same rate, it is probable that Miller makes his debut this year. Harnessing an upper 90’s fastball with a slider, change, and curveball, Miller is anticipated to be an impact starter on Day One for an organization that excels in pitching development. It may already be too late, but dynasty owners would be wise to acquire the 23-year-old before he debuts and soars up our rankings. (The Roto Red)

78. FRANKIE MONTAS, NEW YORK YANKEES (AGE: 30, PREVIOUS RANK: 37)

Frankie Montas had a Jekyll and Hyde season in 2022. Prior to his trade to New York, Montas had started 19 games with 10 quality starts, pitched 104.2 innings with 109 strikeouts, carried a 3.18 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, and had a 3.89 K/BB ratio. After the trade:  eight starts with zero quality starts, 33 strikeouts in 39.2 innings, 6.35 ERA and 1.54 WHIP, and a 2.22 K/BB ratio. Even with Montas’s post-trade starts, he was still in the 65^th percentile for whiff percentage and the 86^th percentile in chase rate. Montas experienced shoulder inflammation both before and after the trade. Unfortunately for both Montas and dynasty owners, he is still dealing with shoulder issues and will miss the first month of the 2023 season. However, if Montas fully recovers and returns to the pitcher that we saw in 2021 and pre-trade 2022, then the 30-year-old has a clear path back to being a Top 50 dynasty starter. (The Roto Red)

79. NATHAN EOVALDI, TEXAS RANGERS (AGE: 33, PREVIOUS RANK: 48)

After a tough 2022, pitching only 109.1 innings and seeing dips in his average fastball velocity (1.1 mph) and cutter velocity (1.9 mph), Nathan Eovaldi signed a two-year deal with the Texas Rangers. He remained an elite control artist, giving up only 1.65 walks per nine innings, but his strikeouts fell to 8.48 K/9, his lowest mark since 2018. Eovaldi landed on the injured list twice, once for lower back inflammation and once for right shoulder inflammation. In addition to (or perhaps because of) the lowered velocity, Eovaldi showed some problematic Statcast trends—he was in the 6^th percentile for both hard hit percentage and whiff percentage. At age 33, Eovaldi may have to learn to pitch with diminishing velocity, and our ranking shows skepticism that he will be able to do so. (The Roto Red)

80. GAVIN WILLIAMS, CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (AGE: 23, PREVIOUS RANK: 177)

Drafted with the 23^rd overall pick in 2021, Gavin Williams reached Double-A in his first professional season. At Double-A, Williams had a 10.54 K/9 and 3.34 BB/9, showing good strikeout stuff and above-average control. Batters had no chance against Williams, as they had a .166 batting average against at Double-A and .175 at Triple-A. Williams’s fastball remains his strength, with the ability to reach triple digits. Scouting reports note strong development of his two off-speed pitches, which with a show-me change, projects Williams firmly into a starting rotation. This is not surprising:  Williams’s landing spot with the Guardians is about as good as you can ask for. With a full developmental pipeline for Cleveland’s starters, Williams will have to continue to perform at a high level to break through.  But when he does, he should be a strong strikeout contributor across the board for dynasty owners. (The Roto Red)

81. Gavin Stone, Los Angeles Dodgers (AGE: 24, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Stone’s teammate, Bobby Miller, sits just a few spots away from him on this list, and that feels right as they are at essentially the same spot in their career. The way they got here could not be more different, though. Miller’s delivery is so violent that he appears to be running to cover first base on every pitch, while Stone has seemingly yet to ever even break a sweat on the mound. Miller rears back and uncorks dominant fastballs, while Stone executes brilliant command and a devastating changeup.

We have Miller higher on this list because, hey, who wouldn’t like such a sexy package. We’re just normal men, afterall. We’re just innocent men. But Stone could easily surpass him with his more reliable and projectable game. Neither pitcher is on the Dodgers 40-man roster, though, so the biggest thing holding them back has nothing to do with them; it’s the organization’s incredible depth. There is hope that a call-up could come sooner than later, though, as the team’s current rotation includes just one pitcher who has a 135+ inning season in either 2021 or 2022. Once Stone gets his shot, expect the 2022 MiLB ERA leader to be a ratios monster with solid strikeouts for a winning club. Certainly worth the stash, as he is likely to be rock solid moving forward. (Aaron Cumming)

82. Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks (AGE: 24, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Now we shift from the minor league ERA leader, Stone, to the minor league strikeout leader, Pfaadt. Despite minimal amateur innings, he is proving the validity of projecting someone with a starter’s body and has already built up to a starter’s workload. In 167 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season, he struck out 218 batters. Remarkably, that outstanding K total was paired with excellent command. His 26.9 K-BB% was good enough for 4th in the minors.

Drey Jameson and Ryne Nelson got the call to the big leagues last year ahead of him, but Pfaadt should get his chance in the Diamondbacks’ rotation very soon. Behind Zac Gallen, Arizona’s next three starters are some combination of bad, boring, and old. It’s easy to envision a handful of starts this year, and then opening 2024 as the team’s number 2 starter with no limitations. (Aaron Cumming)

83. José Berríos, Toronto Blue Jays (AGE: 28, PREVIOUS RANK: 22)

He is who we thought he was. Did things really change for Berríos in 2022? I mean, other than horrific ratios and paltry strikeout numbers. He had the second lowest walk rate of his career, a miniscule 6.0%. His xFIP (4.21) and SIERA (4.13) were right in line with his career averages (4.18 and 4.11, respectively). After making a career out of outperforming those metrics, though, things finally swung the other way.

It would be easy to look at that and just think this is a prolonged stretch of bad luck. But there are barely any differences in any of his “luck” metrics from 2021 to 2022. A higher BABIP? Sure. A worse LOB%? Yep. More home runs with a slightly higher fly ball rate? It’s all there. But nothing to the extent that should have led to this fall from grace. In fact, everything you look at would lead you to think that nothing at all changed. Similar pitch mix, similar velocities and movement, similar locations. But way, WAY worse outcomes. It makes no sense. So is Berríos the 83rd best pitcher? Almost definitely not. He will either revert back to being a reliable top-40 guy, or the mystery will continue, and he’ll end up with a three-digit ranking next year. (Aaron Cumming)

84. Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays (AGE: 22, PREVIOUS RANK: 162)

Bradley turns 22 about a week before Opening Day this year. Yet, he’s made it all the way to Triple-A, and shown impressive polish for a young-for-his-level prospect. Since his professional debut in 2018, he has lowered his walk rate at every single stop through the minors. He was able to increase his velocity during the vacated 2020, and has been fortunate enough to hang onto those gains.

The biggest thing holding Bradley back is his organization. While they have surely had a great influence on his growth and improvement, they also have more pitchers than they know what to do with. Not to mention their newfound willingness to give multi-year deals to starting pitchers (an extension for Jeffrey Springs and their biggest ever free agent signing, Zach Eflin). Despite already being on the 40-man roster, Bradley will likely only see the big leagues sporadically this year. And with their 5 man rotation all under team control through 2024, this ranking is a belief that his skills will either force an opening or a trade without having to wait two years. (Aaron Cumming)

85. Tink Hence, St. Louis Cardinals (AGE: 20, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Here is the list of qualified major leaguers who matched Hence’s strikeout rate:
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Here is the list of qualified major leaguers who came with 8 points of Hence’s strikeout rate:
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Here is the list of minor league starters with at least 50 innings that matched Hence’s strikeout rate:
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So why did we rank the best pitcher on the planet all the way down at 85? Well, the fact that I knocked the innings pitched qualifier on the last bullet point down to 50 should tell you something. Hence has only 60 professional innings under his belt, without seeing higher level competition yet, spending all of 2022 at Single-A. He has an electric fastball, a big curveball, and an emerging changeup. If he can stay healthy with his slight frame, and develop a feel for mixing in all of those pitches, he could shoot way up this list next year. (Aaron Cumming)

86. MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals (AGE: 24, PREVIOUS RANK: 103)

MacKenzie Gore has talent. That has never been in question. He spent four years hovering in the top 30 of most prospect lists, occasionally even grabbing the top spot. The litany of setbacks that prevented him from graduating off those lists were apparently considered less substantial than his potential. Somehow, last season was considered a success because Gore managed to throw 75 innings with San Diego before going down with an elbow injury. Thankfully, he was able to throw 12 innings in Triple-A in September after being traded to the Nationals’ squad to give us a bit of hope going into the offseason.

On top of the health concerns, Gore has had spotty control (at best) and wavering velocity. In his first nine games of the year (eight starts), Gore averaged at least 94.9 MPH on his fastball in all but one game. During that stretch, he had a 1.50 ERA with a 30.0% K-rate. From June 11th on in the majors, he started 5 games with 2 relief appearances and only broke 94.1 MPH on his fastball once. In that stretch, he had an 11.05 ERA and just a 12.6% K-rate. With health, you’d hope that his velocity would stay high, but that’s an impossible thing to bank on at this point… unless you’re the Nationals. (Aaron Cumming)

87. José Urquidy, Houston Astros (AGE: 27, PREVIOUS RANK: 71)

“Yes! I rostered José Urquidy!” exclaimed nobody. While he should be in the Astros rotation to start the season, there’s a reason he’s our 6th highest ranked Houston pitcher on this list. He is as predictable as he is boring, and he’s quite predictable. If you have an insatiable need for 160 innings of a 3.90 ERA and 130 strikeouts, have you ever come to the right place.

There’s definitely more downside than upside in the profile, but there’s not much variance either way. It’s a wide repertoire without any standout pitches, but without any real problem offerings either. He hasn’t had a year with an ERA over 4.00, but he also hasn’t had a year with a SIERA or xFIP under 4.00. Projections are unified in predicting another boring year, so if he is what you need, you’ll undoubtedly get what you expect. (Aaron Cumming)

88. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (AGE: 26, PREVIOUS RANK: 53)

Along with Casey Mize and Matt Manning, Skubal was part of a trio of can’t-miss Tigers pitching prospects who all came up and missed. To be fair, they all still have a chance to be good (if not great) starters, and Skubal has shown the most promise of the group. He’s also currently recovering from tendon surgery on his throwing arm, with an unknown timetable before getting back on the mound and trying to live up to that promise.

When healthy, Skubal is essentially a Robbie Ray clone. Much the same as the Cy Young award winner, once Tarik improved his strike throwing, he stepped up his game to a new level. Before the injury in 2022, he was sporting a 3.52 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. It seems unlikely that he makes his return before late-July or August, so this season will likely be a tune-up for 2024. But if he gets back on track, he could earn his keep as the Tigers ace and a fantasy stalwart. (Aaron Cumming)

89. Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs (AGE: 27, PREVIOUS RANK: 280)

Steele spent years toiling in obscurity in the Cubs farm system. He occasionally earned a single-digit ranking in their team prospect rankings, but never caught a whiff of any league-wide recognition. In 2021, he got the call to the majors and met his meager expectations. His opening salvo in 2022 was bearing out in a similarly boring fashion before a switch was flipped.

On July 4th, Steele declared his independence from his sinker. Ditching that offering and ramping up the use of his slider, he had a 1.46 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and a 28.8% K-rate against just an 8.8% BB-rate through the end of the season. He didn’t pitch at all in September with a back injury, but all indications are that he should be fine heading into this season. If the gains he made in the second half of 2022 stick, then he could be an absolute bargain. (Aaron Cumming)

90. Andrew Heaney, Texas Rangers (AGE: 31, PREVIOUS RANK: 156)

Heaney, proprietor of “Limited Edition” art gallery, recently met with former star quarterback David Dunn. Heaney had been trying to discover people with special talents, even going so far as to set in motion a variety of nefarious events to uncover these individuals. After discovering Mr. Dunn’s unique attributes, Heaney realizes his true calling of being a supervillain. Oh, wait wait wait. I think I’ve got Andrew Heaney confused with Elijah Price, aka “Mr. Glass,” from the movie Unbreakable. An easy mistake, given that they both suffer from brittle bone disease.

Jokes aside, Heaney has undeniable talent. He posts excellent K-rates, and has just a 6.6% BB-rate for his entire career. A move from Dodger Stadium to Globe Life Field is a huge step up for any pitcher, and Heaney should reap the rewards. While he’s on the mound, at least. All major projection systems have a similar take on his talent. A high-3’s ERA, a good WHIP, and an incredible strikeout rate. But the innings estimates range from just 90 to 140, leaving something to be desired even on the high end. If you are banking on a lot of production from Heaney, you could get lucky and find a hero, but more than likely, he’s going to play the role of villain. (Aaron Cumming)

91. ALEX COBB, SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (AGE: 35, PREVIOUS RANK: 148)

The late-career resurgence of Alex Cobb has been a great example that two bad years may not spell the end of a career. Being an Angels fan, I had watched most of Cobb’s 2021 starts and realized that if he’s healthy for a full season there’s a chance he could be one of the best starters on your roster. That is exactly what happened in 2022 with the Giants and he did not disappoint. Cobb’s  2.80 FIP and the highest K-BB% of his career over 150 innings poised him for a big jump in our rankings. While I would have him higher than 91, his age and health history does limit his long-term value from a dynasty perspective. If your team is in a win-now position, Cobb could be a great value trade target. (Joe Garino)

92. GARRETT WHITLOCK, BOSTON RED SOX (AGE: 26, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

In 39 innings as a Starter, Whitlock displayed more than enough for me to believe in his future. Striking out 23.2% of the batters he faced and walking just 5.5% are essentially the same splits Sandy Alcantara had in 2022. Whitlock’s 2023 projections seem to believe that if he’s given a chance to make 20+ starts that he could end up being one of the better starting pitchers in the American League. This could be your last chance to convince other managers to include him in a trade. (Joe Garino)

93. RANGER SUAREZ, PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (AGE: 27, PREVIOUS RANK: 73)

It’s incredible to think that a 27-year old who threw 155 innings with a 3.65 ERA is dropping 20 spots from their ranking last year. His luck based stats such as HR/FB and LOB% fell back to earth in 2022 and I would expect his 2022 line to be much more predictive of his future. Although, the additions the Phillies have made around the infield should help out Suarez’s ground ball heavy approach more than one would think. (Joe Garino)

94. JAMESON TAILLON, CHICAGO CUBS GIANTS (AGE: 31, PREVIOUS RANK: 116)

Taillon essentially missed all of 2019 and 2020 due to forearm injuries and surgeries. Since then, he’s thrown 321.2 innings and has seen moderate success earning himself a nice contract with the Cubs. His early career as a control specialist who keeps the ball on the ground has since gone away and he has become more even split since coming back from injury. Like Suarez above, the Cubs made some nice infield additions this season that should improve the defense that Taillon has behind him. Hopefully, the Cubs can get him to work towards this strength of theirs and get his ground ball rates to come back to where they were with the Pirates. (Joe Garino)

95. MICK ABEL, PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (AGE: 21, PREVIOUS RANK: 121)

The 2020 first-round pick for the Phillies had a successful 2022 that saw him reach AA. He will likely start there this season and could reach the Majors for a stretch run with the Phillies if they are in need of help in the rotation or the bullpen. He has major swing-and-miss potential with a plus fastball and curveball. My biggest concern here is command as his walk rates have been above 10% at every level he has visited. For reference, there were just 5 pitchers with a walk rate above 10% and more than 130 IP in 2022 (Out of 90 Pitchers total). If he figures out the control there is top end of the rotation talent but the floor is extremely low as well. (Joe Garino)

96. MAX MEYER, MIAMI MARLINS (AGE: 23, PREVIOUS RANK: 46)

Meyer had Tommy John surgery last year after making two starts in the Majors for the Marlins. My guess is that he likely won’t pitch until August or September if at all but there are recent updates that he might begin a throwing program soon. Meyer is still an incredible talent and given the Marlins ability to turn just about anyone into a quality starter he should still be a safe bet moving forward. This seems a little too low for Meyer and if you have a chance to grab him, there’s a chance his value may never be lower than now. (Joe Garino)

97. HAYDEN WESNESKI, CHICAGO CUBS (AGE: 25, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

The Cubs have a large group of players vying for 5-6 spots in their starting rotation. Wesneski’s 2022 was certainly eye opening but the 84% left on base rate and low HR/FB makes me believe that he could have overperformed. There will be injuries and you could safely pencil him in for some playing time, but he does have 3 options left meaning the Cubs could play it safe and run out their older players while they still have years of control left with Wesneski. (Joe Garino)

98. MARCUS STROMAN, CHICAGO CUBS (AGE: 31, PREVIOUS RANK: 54)

Speaking of Cubs starters that will take priority in the rotation, Stroman certainly took a fall in our ranking this year. After a stellar 2021, Stroman was essentially the same pitcher but got hurt and made 8 less starts in 2022. I firmly believe this is an overreaction from our staff and he should be higher than this spot. He’s consistently between 3-3.5 ERA and will rack up innings and starts unless he runs into a major health problem. He turns 32 on May 1st, but I think there is quite a bit of value still left in his arm. (Joe Garino)

99. SEAN MANAEA, SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (AGE: 31, PREVIOUS RANK: 60)

Here at TDG, we expected a jump from Manaea after being traded to the Padres and he was basically just the same pitcher he was his whole career. Despite an ERA close to five, he had strikeout, walk, HR/FB, and a BABIP in line with his career numbers. I trust what the Giants have going on from a player development perspective so they might be the team to unlock his potential. (Joe Garino)

100. TYLER ANDERSON, LOS ANGELES ANGELS (AGE: 33, PREVIOUS RANK: 202)

Another player added to the list of Dodgers who went from forgotten to highly sought after. Anderson was the type of pitcher teams are okay with having at the end of their rotation. Keeps guys off base with good control and goes out there every five days to take his turn on the mound. He leaves the Dodgers and heads a little south to Anaheim to play for an organization I have very little faith in their ability to make players better. Anderson will likely be a nice piece for the Angels to fill into their rotation but I would not expect more than a 4 ERA and about 150 innings. (Joe Garino)

101. DL HALL, BALTIMORE ORIOLES (AGE: 24, PREVIOUS RANK: 96)

A former first round draft pick in 2017, DL Hall has moved up steadily in the Orioles’ system.  He has electric stuff and an elite fastball.  The downside is that he has not shown that he can keep his walk rate down.  His WHIP and ERA will not help your ratios, and there’s a definite reliever risk here as we saw during his debut with the Orioles last season.  (Drew Klein)

102. CADE CAVALLI, WASHINGTON NATIONALS (AGE: 24, PREVIOUS RANK: 79)

Cavalli, a 2020 first round draft pick, pitched in three levels in 2021 and spent most of 2022 in Triple-A. He had one start in the majors before being shelved with a shoulder injury and is expected to start 2023 in the Nationals’ rotation.  He has a power pitcher’s frame at 6’ 4” and, as you’d expect, relies heavily on his fastball.  Keep an eye on his walks, he had 4.4 BB/9 in 2021 which he lowered to 3.62 BB/9 in 2022; and on how well he recovers from the shoulder injury. (Drew Klein)

103. CHARLIE MORTON, ATLANTA BRAVES (AGE: 39, PREVIOUS RANK: 67)

On one hand, Charlie Morton will be 39 years old this season, and for a three year dynasty outlook, I wonder if he’ll be pitching at age 41.  On the other hand, he threw 16 pitches in the World Series on a broken leg.  If he wants to pitch at age 41, he will. The question is, how well will he pitch?  Last year he maintained a K/9% over 10%, while his BB/9% was his highest since 2018 at 3.38%, which is still a respectable number.  Last year was the first in which he surrendered more than one home run per nine innings (1.47 HR/9), which could be a concerning trend.  For dynasty purposes, I project that you can count on 150+ innings with more than one strikeout per inning. (Drew Klein)

104. AARON CIVALE, CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (AGE: 28, PREVIOUS RANK: 68)

In four major league seasons, Aaron Civale has only pitched over 100 innings once.  He has a modest strikeout rate, a good walk rate and surrenders 1.33 HR/9.  He has a low WHIP which has a lot of people projecting a breakout from him, but I’ll need to see him pitch a full season before I buy in.  Take a good look, there are good signs, but it’s too risky for my taste. (Drew Klein)

105. JOSIAH GRAY, WASHINGTON NATIONALS (AGE: 25, PREVIOUS RANK: 70)

Gray was a highly regarded prospect, but something happened to his control on the way to the major leagues.  After posting walk percentages under 7% in Double-  and under 4% in Triple-A, he hasn’t been able to keep it under 10% in the majors.  Making matters worse, he had the highest HR/FB rate among all pitchers who recorded at least 140 innings.  If he can’t cut down on walks and home runs allowed, he’ll continue to move in the wrong direction in these rankings. (Drew Klein)

106. MIKE SOROKA, ATLANTA BRAVES (AGE: 25, PREVIOUS RANK: 80)

In 2019, Soroka threw 174 innings with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.  Since that time he’s thrown only 38 innings at any level thanks to two Achilles injuries and a sore arm that shortened his return to the mound last year.  There was no structural damage to his arm reported last year, just the soreness, so it may be very possible that he returns to his 2019 form.  If and when he does, he’ll move well up this list and would be a very intriguing buy-low candidate. (Drew Klein)

107. ERIC LAUER, MILWAUKEE BREWERS (AGE: 28, PREVIOUS RANK: 107)

Over the course of a season, Eric Lauer proves to be a competent, let’s say average, major league pitcher.  He will have hot streaks that will carry your team in some formats, but in a roto format, by the end of the season he tends to finish with similar ratios each year, with a K% in the low 20s and a BB% between eight and nine percent. He’s a fly ball pitcher which leads to a home run rate over 1.5 HR/9 last year. You could do worse for SP4 or SP5 on your roster, but don’t look for much more than that. (Drew Klein)

108. CODY MORRIS, CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (AGE: 26, PREVIOUS RANK: 189)

Cody Morris was a seventh round draft pick in the 2018 draft and has moved rapidly through the Cleveland minor league system.  He posted very high strikeout rates in the minors, consistently over 30%.  In the minors, his walk rate has always been under 9% with the exception of a 15 inning stint in Triple-A last year.  His major league debut indicates that he’ll need to keep adjusting to major league hitting, as over 23 innings he posted a 8.57 K% accompanied by a 4.56 BB%.  Cleveland has been able to get the most out of their pitchers and I’m projecting a rise through these ranks for Cody Morris. (Drew Klein)

109. DREY JAMESON, ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (AGE: 25, PREVIOUS RANK: 167)

Jameson was the 34th pick in the 2019 draft and made an immediate impact in the minors.  On the strength of a 65 grade fastball, he racked up strikeouts at rates over 30% in High-A and Double-A.  His 2022 season is a bit of an anomaly.  He was not effective in Triple-A where, over 114 innings, he posted a 6.95 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP.  Presumably the Diamondbacks saw something behind the numbers and called him up for four starts at the end of the season.  In those starts, he went 3-0, with a 24.5% K rate and 7.1% walk rate.  He throws his fastball over 60% of the time, and has a ground ball rate over 50%.  Major league hitters will hit fastballs, but if he can keep the ground ball rate high and work on his other pitches, he’s a player to keep an eye on. (Drew Klein)

110. TANNER BIBEE, CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (AGE: 24, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Bibee possesses a fastball that hits the upper 90s, throws a sweeping slider, and the Cleveland scouts draw favorable comparisons to Shane Bieber.  In his first year in the minors he pitched in High-A and Double-A and impressed with 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings with only 1.15 walks per nine across both levels.  There are no sure things when it comes to pitching prospects, but this is a player to add to your watch lists. (Drew Klein)

111. MERRILL KELLY, ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (AGE: 34, PREVIOUS RANK: 178)

In 2022, only eight pitchers threw over 200 innings, and Merrill Kelly was one of them.  That followed a year in which he threw 158 innings.  He gives you volume, and even with an average strikeout rate, the number of strikeouts will add up over the course of the season.  His ERA last year was 3.37, the second lowest since his return from the Korean league in 2019. His consistency will provide stability to fantasy rosters and is not a bad choice for your SP4 slot. At the age of 34, a drop off is possible soon, but I don’t think it’s imminent. (Drew Klein)

112. ZACH EFLIN, TAMPA BAY RAYS (AGE: 29, PREVIOUS RANK: 131)

Zach Eflin is a ground ball pitcher who doesn’t give up many home runs, doesn’t walk many batters and doesn’t’ rack up a lot of strikeouts.  Aside from 2019, he also doesn’t pitch a lot of innings. The move to Tampa is intriguing, as he’ll have a regular spot in the rotation.  This creates a ripple effect that will please many fantasy managers; Tampa may not need to use an opener as often, so there’s that.  Last season he had a 1.12 WHIP and a 4.04 ERA so there’s some hope that he can be a contributor, but I don’t see much that interests me from a fantasy point of view. (Drew Klein)

113. TYLOR MEGILL, NEW YORK METS (AGE: 27, PREVIOUS RANK: 127)

Tylor Megill didn’t get a lot of attention when he was drafted in the eighth round in 2018, but as he moved through the minor leagues, his high strikeout rates caught the eyes of many scouts.  He made his major league debut in 2021 and posted a K% of 26.1% and a BB% of 7.1%.  In 2022 he had increased velocity on his fastball, and posted similar percentages as 2021.  However, in both those years he had a high hard hit percentage against, because major league hitters can hit a fastball, and Megill’s ERA in those years was 4.52 and 5.13 respectively. If Megill can develop secondary pitches and keep hitters off balance, he has a chance to keep a rotation spot and move up these lists. (Drew Klein)

114. EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ, DETROIT TIGERS (AGE: 30, PREVIOUS RANK: 50)

If The Dynasty Guru had our core values posted on the wall of our headquarters, if we had headquarters, it would include “baseball players are human beings and we will treat them as such.” We don’t know what was going on with Eduardo Rodriguez last season, and I’ll respect his privacy as much as I respect the players who do speak about their personal issues.

Rodriguez returned to the Tigers in August last year, and in 9 starts he had a 6.58 K/9%, 2.94 BB/9%, and a 3.81 ERA.  In seven of those starts, he surrendered three or fewer earned runs.  The strikeout and walk percentages were lower than his career averages, which is understandable for a pitcher who missed three months for any reason.  He’ll be 30 years old this season and there’s good reason to believe that over the next three years he’ll pitch over 150 innings per year, with good ERA and WHIP, and he’ll accumulate strikeouts.  And let’s be honest, moving the center field wall in ten feet will not keep Comerica from still being a pretty good pitcher’s ballpark.  I know why he’s ranked here this year, but I think he’ll be top 75 on this list next year. (Drew Klein)

115. KYLE BRADISH, BALTIMORE ORIOLES (AGE: 26, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Bradish is coming off a rookie year in which he struck out 111 over 117 innings.  He posted an ERA of 4.90 and a WHIP of 1.4.  Scouts like his fastball, which is more of a cutter, that tops out at 95 mph, but he’ll need to cut down on his walk rate if he’s going to move up these ranks.  He’ll have a place in the rotation, but doesn’t project to make a big difference on your roster. (Drew Klein)

116. GERMÁN MÁRQUEZ, COLORADO ROCKIES (AGE: 28, PREVIOUS RANK: 49)

Raise your hand if you’ve drafted, or traded for, German Marquez, hoping that he’d be traded away from Colorado and Coors Field at that year’s deadline.  Keep your hands raised if you knew that his career HR/9 is only 0.13 higher at home.  Now keep them raised if you knew his K/9 is higher at home than on the road. Now, it’s true that there are other statistics, such as BABIP and the resulting BA against that make it clear it’s difficult to pitch in Coors, and you could even say that’s why his strikeout average is higher at home if that’s the only way to get hitters out there.  A look at is home and away splits do, in general, confirm the obvious assumption that he does better on the road, but a close look shows that since 2019, he hasn’t put up SP1 level numbers on the road either.  We would all like to see what he does if and when he does change teams, but take a close look before you overpay when that happens. (Drew Klein)

117. CARLOS CARRASCO, NEW YORK METS (AGE: 36, PREVIOUS RANK: 140)

Last year at age 35, Carrasco threw 152 innings, struck out 152 batters, while issuing only 41 walks, a 3.97 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.  And as I’m sure you recall, this was just two years after returning to baseball after beating cancer.  Even though he’s about to turn 36, I’m not betting against him.  He’ll give you 140 to 150 innings, with about a strikeout per inning, and ratios that won’t sink your team.  He’s a good asset for your roster while you wait to see which of your prospects develop. (Drew Klein)

118. TAIJUAN WALKER, PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (AGE: 30, PREVIOUS RANK: 117)

119. JACK LEITER, TEXAS RANGERS (AGE: 23, PREVIOUS RANK: 64)

Too often when I’m ranking young prospects, I keep remembering that “one thing” I heard “one guy” say once.  In Jack Leiter’s case, during his last year in college, some analyst said he was concerned that Leiter is a two-pitch pitcher, and unless those two pitches are elite, that won’t get him far in the major leagues.  I don’t know if that’s been an issue so far, and he’s young enough to develop more pitches, but what I do know is that he walks too many batters.  In Double-A last year he walked 5.44 batters per nine innings. As he moves up and hitters are even more disciplined, he’ll have to address that. (Drew Klein)

120. MILES MIKOLAS, ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (AGE: 34, PREVIOUS RANK: 312)

As you can see from his previous ranking, we weren’t sure how Miles Mikolas would bounce back from the forearm injury that plagued him in 2021.  Let’s see, in 2022 he was one of only 8 pitchers who threw over 200 innings (202), posted a 3.29 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP, and 153 strikeouts.  He pitches to contact, and that’s something that fantasy managers shy away from, but he’s managed to do that and keep his WHIP and ERA in ranges that won’t hurt your team. I wouldn’t argue with anyone who said we had him ranked a little low here. (Drew Klein)

121. Luis Ortiz, Pittsburgh Pirates (AGE: 24, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

The top five players that have similar velocity and movement on their pitches per Baseball Savant last year were; Sandy Alcantara, Hunter Greene, Luis Castillo, Gerrit Cole, and Jordan Hicks. That’s quite the list to be a part of for velocity and movement on their pitches. If that doesn’t get your juices flowing then I don’t know what will.

All of that movement and velocity comes with a downside, of course, he generally has no idea where the pitch is going to go. Add in the fact that he’s essentially a four-seam/slider pitcher I would never really look for him to give you a ton of innings. (Ryan Epperson)

122. Martin Perez, Texas Rangers (AGE: 31, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Perez enjoyed the best season of his career last year sporting a 2.89 ERA to go along with a mediocre WHIP of 1.26. He gets by, by utilizing mostly five pitches with his cutter, changeup, and sinker thrown the majority of the time and keeping hitters off balance.

This will be his age 33 season and the strikeouts are never going to be impressive, but the underlying numbers seem to suggest that last year was less of a fluke than I originally thought as his FIP was 3.27. (Ryan Epperson)

123. Cal Quantrill, Cleveland Guardians (AGE: 28, PREVIOUS RANK: 86)

Vanilla is delicious and can be used in multiple ways in different applications, from vanilla ice cream to vanilla icing. Vanilla is underrated and yes a little bland much like Cal Quantrill.

Quantrill is nothing to write home about, but he is putting together a case to be rostered in anything larger than a 12-teamer as a back-end starter or streaming option. I’m not going to throw numbers out at you, as they’re generally bad besides his ERA. He’s pretty much a net zero in strikeouts, not hurting you but certainly not helping, and his WHIP is average.

But yet he continues to get people out regularly. I don’t quite understand it, and neither do the projections and I think he will be one of those players that consistently outplay their projections. (Ryan Epperson)

124. Noah Syndergaard, Philadelphia Phillies (AGE: 30, PREVIOUS RANK: 63)

The Norse God will most likely never wield Mjölnir again as injuries have derailed his career, but there is still some hope there and we saw a little bit of it last year as he had a sub 4.00 ERA. All of his pitches have certainly taken a step back in terms of velo and movement but he’s still a better than average pitcher. He’s like most of the veteran pitchers around this ranking, he’s fine he’s not going to kill you in any category but he can certainly be rostered. I’m not going to count out Thor yet, as I think he can learn to be a pitcher instead of a thrower and learn to lean on sequence instead of hammering them. (Ryan Epperson)

125. Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins (AGE: 30, PREVIOUS RANK: 130)

What a mountain of a man Bailey Ober is, standing 6`9” and weighing 260 pounds he may be the tallest man in baseball (I don’t really care if this is true or not, sue me). I imagine the next sentence you expected would be about his blazing fastball that can knock down mountains. As the great Steven A. Smith says “BUT!” Ober throws a 91mph four-seamer which assuredly plays up as he’s in the 95th percentile in extension because he’s a humongous human being.

With the addition of Pablo Lopez there’s recent talk of Ober starting the year out in Triple-A and remaining stretched out in case they need a starter. Ober has an above-average K-BB% at 17.6% thanks to locating his deceptive fastball and slider extremely well. (Ryan Epperson)

126. Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers (AGE: 23, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

What a wide range of outcomes for the 23 year old Rocker. With a devastating fastball and slider combo Rocker could develop an effective third pitch and put injury concerns behind and become a terrific top of the line starter. He could also struggle in a starting role for a few years before finally moving to the pen where he’s above average and maybe even great. Time will certainly tell, if he can stay healthy this year, he could be a fast mover and should be considered in the top 25 in FYPD this year. (Ryan Epperson)

127. Ross Stripling, Toronto Blue Jays (AGE: 33, PREVIOUS RANK: 207)

Stripling enjoyed his best season to date last year going for a 3.01 ERA and logging 134 innings. He also upped his chase rate from an average rate to an excellent rate (24.8% -> 34.5%) while dropping his BB% to a minuscule 3.7% ranking in the 98th percentile.

He does a good job of keeping hitters off balance and switched up his pitch mix last year deciding to throw his two best pitches much more often. He’s not going to give you a lot of innings and is more of a streamer option at this point. I wouldn’t count on a sub-4.00 ERA again or that walk rate continuing to be so low. (Ryan Epperson)

128. Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers (AGE: 25, PREVIOUS RANK: 76)

If Mize wasn’t a first-overall pick, I believe he would have moved down the rankings even further if not completely out of our top 200. Mize`s calling card during the draft was an advanced repertoire with solid control of all of his pitches who would be at least a mid-rotation starter. Unfortunately, injuries have derailed his career almost from the onset as he began to experience shoulder inflammation as early as 2019 and the results since have suffered as he never regained the same movement and control of his pitches from before.

He won’t pitch for much of the year in the Majors as he’s recovering from Tommy John, he’s someone you can safely drop in all formats I believe, and is someone I would stay away from in general. (Ryan Epperson)

129. Matt Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals (AGE: 23, PREVIOUS RANK: 95)

Well, that wasn’t the way you want to start your major league career. A 5.97 ERA to go along with a K-BB% of 6.2% is well, terrible. He was most likely called up too early due to injuries, but even after being sent down, he struggled mightily in Triple-A posting a 5.17 ERA.

The problem for Liberatore is two-fold, he has no current put-away pitch and he has an eminently hittable fastball. Hopefully, he can stay down in Triple-A for the year and find some way to improve his fastball. If he fails to do that, it’s hard to see a path forward for him as a starting pitcher, and may eventually move to the bullpen. (Ryan Epperson)

130. Ken Waldichuk, Oakland Athletics (AGE: 24, PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

Waldichuk has shown an ability to strike people out, never falling below a 25% K rate throughout the minors thanks in part to his wipeout slider and a plus changeup. He utilizes a 94mph four-seam that plays slightly up due to a deceptive delivery, but he has so far lacked the command to locate it effectively and batters have teed off on it to the tune of a 50% hard-hit rate in the Majors.

If he can locate the fastball effectively and stop leaving it over the heart of the plate he could make a jump up these rankings next year. As of now he does not have a rotation spot locked down and may spend some time in the bullpen where his slider/change combo could play up. (Ryan Epperson)