The Top 34 Rookies for Dynasty Basketball Leagues, July 2018

Welcome to TDG top 34 rookies for dynasty basketball, reader. Please share, join the conversation by commenting below, on Twitter and on our Facebook page. I’ll try to do a Reddit AMA, too.

RANK	Tier	PLAYER	TEAM	POS	COMMENTS	Pelton WARP	538 Peak Wins Above Replacement
1	1	Luka Doncic	DAL	PG	Far and away the best fantasy prospect.	5.8	5.3
2	2	Jaren Jackson Jr	MEM	C	Triple J had a block rate that exceeded Mo Bamba's and has the best combination of landing spot, pedigree, and analytics support.	2.8	4.1
3	3	DeAndre Ayton	PHO	C	Vucevic with three point range? Ayton's block rate is half that of Jackson's, which limits his fantasy upside.	3.2	3.1
4	3	Trae Young	ATL	PG	There's little question he will put up volume stats early on, perhaps with acceptable percentages and certainly plenty of steals. The reason he's not in tier two is that there's risk that he's more Seth than Steph; the offense might not be good enough to offset poor defensive impact.	3	3.5
5	3	Mo Bamba	ORL	C	We know he can board and block at an elite rate, but how will his emerging three point stroke develops. Laughably poor assist rate, even for a big.	2.5	3.4
6	3	Marvin Bagley	SAC	PF	The draft pedigree, tools and offensive ability are tantalizing, but he's not a wing nor is he a good rim protector. In fact, some metrics suggest he's a very poor defender overall.	1.5	3
7	4	Mikal Bridges	PHO	SF	Perhaps the safest non-elite prospect to be useful thanks to his mature game, ready made 3 and D skills and efficiency with a shot at "triple one" with steals/blocks/3's.	2.5	2.3
8	4	Wendell Carter Jr	CHI	PF	Carter Jr. lands in a favorable spot, but it's harder to imagine a path to fantasy stardom for him than others, in part due to low steal rate. Still draws statistical comps such as Kevin Love, Myles Turner and Aaron Gordon, so maybe I am selling him short.	1.2	3.1
9	4	Michael Porter Jr	DEN	SF	Eventually it makes sense to pay attention to where the real life GM's drafted Porter Jr. They make mistakes all the time, but collectively they're not dummies. Be prepared to wait a full year for him to see the court if he needs back surgery, but it's a big deal to lose a year of development and back surgery is concerning long-term.	2.7	1.6
10	5	Zhaire Smith	PHI	SG	How good of a shooter is he? He shot 45% from three (that's great!), but it was only on 1.2 attempts/game and he shot only 72% from the line (that's not great). Smith is this year's "maybe he is Kawhi Leonard."	1.4	3.2
11	5	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	LAC	PG	Gilgeous-Alexander has two solid fantasy skills in his assist rate and steal rate. If his shooting numbers can hold up with more volume (which I doubt they will), he could emerge as a top 50 fantasy player one day.	1.2	2.7
12	5	Miles Bridges	CHA	SF	Score-first wing should get the keys to the car and be good for some Harrison Barnes type volume seasons.	1.8	1.4
13	5	Colin Sexton	CLE	PG	From a fantasy perspective, there's a lot of pressure on Sexton to accel as a scorer due to a poor steal rate. It can be done (e.g. Dame Lil), but it does limit both the upside and floor.	1.1	1.7
14	5	Kevin Knox	NYK	SF	The Knicks once again go young and we'll once again have to exhibit patience before we start seeing top 100 seasons from Knox, if ever. Knox's upside is based mostly on his youth and physical tools as opposed to his on-court production.	1.1	0.9
15	6	Kevin Huerter	ATL	SG	I think he's more Jeremy Lamb than Devin Booker / Klay Thompson, but that's what Atlanta is dreaming on.	1.5	1.8
16	6	Dzanan Musa	BKN	SG/SF	A teenager who beat up on older professionals in the Adriatic league, eh? We've seen this before. Musa can score and will have a chance to play right away.	2.4	1.3
17	6	Troy Brown	WAS	SG	Steals, boards and dimes are a strength for Brown, but guards need to to be able to shoot. Glass half full is that he has the skills down that can't be taught.	1	2.8
18	6	Lonnie Walker	SAS	SG	Dispel yourself of the notion that all Spurs draft picks pan out. Walker is another player that hopes to become a 3-and-D role player, but neither the steal rate nor the shooting efficiency were particularly good. If you're in 9-cat leagues, Walker rarely turned it over in college.	1.2	1.2
19	6	Elie Okobo	PHO	PG	Could develop into an impact starter, which is more than you can say about many players taken ahead of him.	0.9	1.4
20	6	Robert Williams	BOS	C	A 'dive and D' big, if the Celtics roster stays as constructed he could provide hyper-efficient fantasy stats similar to what Clint Capela did in 2016-2017 in 20-25 mpg.	1.4	1.7
21	6	Josh Okogie	MIN	SG	His coach does not play young players, but Okogie is a stand out at the guard positon for his block and steal rate.	1	1.9
22	6	DeAnthony Melton	HOU	SG	A defensive specialist with the best steal/block potential among all guards, Melton will need to develop some semblance of an offensive game or he'll be Tony Allen. That's not necessarily a neg... a Tony Allen fantasy career with pick 22 would be great!	1.7	2
23	6	Jacob Evans	GSW	SF	Perimiter D, above average boards, low turnover rate, steals, blocks and a little bit of shooting ability? Sounds a lot like another wing on the same team.	1.6	1.2
24	7	Landry Shamet	PHI	PG	You're hoping for Lou Williams-type scoring reserve. Really good offensive player.	1.1	0.5
25	7	Grayson Allen	UTA	SG	Allen is a really good shooter, can pass and get some steals. Sounds like a potential top 100 player to me.	1	0.4
26	7	Anfernee Simons	POR	SG	The draft's mystery man lands in Portland where a sneaky aging Blazers team could use a dose of youth and upside to their backcourt, particularly if Napier doesn't return.	N/A	1.8
27	7	Khyri Thomas	DET	SG	He has a shot at starting at some point this year. The steal rate makes him more interesting than Kennard and Stanley Johnson has yet to establish himself.	0.7	0.5
28	8	Mitchell Robinson	NYK	C	If you don't know his story, Robinson was a top 10 HS recruit with insane athleticism and length who never played college ball. His production in the EYBL was that of a lottery pick. Really nice upside play here, but non-stretch bigs rarely sniff 30 minutes anymore.	1.8	0.2
29	8	Omari Spellman	ATL	PF	Spellman can become the player we hoped Ivica Zubac on a team that is light in big men with any upside.	0.5	0.8
30	8	Jevon Carter	MEM	PG	I'd run (not walk) to the waiver wire were Conley to go down again, because Carter has an absurd steal rate and advanced metrics think he has a chance, too.	1	1.1
31	8	Donte DiVincenzo	MIL	PG	I like his chances to become a scoring sixth man right away.	1	0.9
32	9	Jerome Robinson	LAC	PG	Breakout junior year, but these pop up upper classmen (e.g. Denzel Valentine) don't have the best track record.	-0.1	0.7
33	9	Chandler Hutchinson	CHI	SG/SF	Another older wing prospect. I think he can be left on the watch list unless he looks like he's going to earn starter's minutes.	-0.2	0.7
34	9	Aaron Holiday	IND	PG	See comment for Jerome Robinson. People will talk about the opportunity, but he still needs to be good to take the starting role.	-0.1	0.3