2018 Dynasty Basketball Rankings

The Top 34 Rookies for Dynasty Basketball Leagues, July 2018

Welcome to TDG top 34 rookies for dynasty basketball, reader. Please share, join the conversation by commenting below, on Twitter and on our Facebook page. I’ll try to do a Reddit AMA, too.

RANKTierPLAYERTEAMPOSCOMMENTSPelton WARP538 Peak Wins Above Replacement
11Luka DoncicDALPGFar and away the best fantasy prospect.5.85.3
22Jaren Jackson JrMEMCTriple J had a block rate that exceeded Mo Bamba's and has the best combination of landing spot, pedigree, and analytics support.2.84.1
33DeAndre AytonPHOCVucevic with three point range? Ayton's block rate is half that of Jackson's, which limits his fantasy upside.3.23.1
43Trae YoungATLPGThere's little question he will put up volume stats early on, perhaps with acceptable percentages and certainly plenty of steals. The reason he's not in tier two is that there's risk that he's more Seth than Steph; the offense might not be good enough to offset poor defensive impact.33.5
53Mo BambaORLCWe know he can board and block at an elite rate, but how will his emerging three point stroke develops. Laughably poor assist rate, even for a big.2.53.4
63Marvin BagleySACPFThe draft pedigree, tools and offensive ability are tantalizing, but he's not a wing nor is he a good rim protector. In fact, some metrics suggest he's a very poor defender overall.1.53
74Mikal BridgesPHOSFPerhaps the safest non-elite prospect to be useful thanks to his mature game, ready made 3 and D skills and efficiency with a shot at "triple one" with steals/blocks/3's.2.52.3
84Wendell Carter JrCHIPFCarter Jr. lands in a favorable spot, but it's harder to imagine a path to fantasy stardom for him than others, in part due to low steal rate. Still draws statistical comps such as Kevin Love, Myles Turner and Aaron Gordon, so maybe I am selling him short.1.23.1
94Michael Porter JrDENSFEventually it makes sense to pay attention to where the real life GM's drafted Porter Jr. They make mistakes all the time, but collectively they're not dummies. Be prepared to wait a full year for him to see the court if he needs back surgery, but it's a big deal to lose a year of development and back surgery is concerning long-term.2.71.6
105Zhaire SmithPHISGHow good of a shooter is he? He shot 45% from three (that's great!), but it was only on 1.2 attempts/game and he shot only 72% from the line (that's not great). Smith is this year's "maybe he is Kawhi Leonard."1.43.2
115Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderLACPGGilgeous-Alexander has two solid fantasy skills in his assist rate and steal rate. If his shooting numbers can hold up with more volume (which I doubt they will), he could emerge as a top 50 fantasy player one day.1.22.7
125Miles BridgesCHASFScore-first wing should get the keys to the car and be good for some Harrison Barnes type volume seasons.1.81.4
135Colin SextonCLEPGFrom a fantasy perspective, there's a lot of pressure on Sexton to accel as a scorer due to a poor steal rate. It can be done (e.g. Dame Lil), but it does limit both the upside and floor.1.11.7
145Kevin KnoxNYKSFThe Knicks once again go young and we'll once again have to exhibit patience before we start seeing top 100 seasons from Knox, if ever. Knox's upside is based mostly on his youth and physical tools as opposed to his on-court production.1.10.9
156Kevin HuerterATLSGI think he's more Jeremy Lamb than Devin Booker / Klay Thompson, but that's what Atlanta is dreaming on.1.51.8
166Dzanan MusaBKNSG/SFA teenager who beat up on older professionals in the Adriatic league, eh? We've seen this before. Musa can score and will have a chance to play right away.2.41.3
176Troy BrownWASSGSteals, boards and dimes are a strength for Brown, but guards need to to be able to shoot. Glass half full is that he has the skills down that can't be taught.12.8
186Lonnie WalkerSASSGDispel yourself of the notion that all Spurs draft picks pan out. Walker is another player that hopes to become a 3-and-D role player, but neither the steal rate nor the shooting efficiency were particularly good. If you're in 9-cat leagues, Walker rarely turned it over in college.1.21.2
196Elie OkoboPHOPGCould develop into an impact starter, which is more than you can say about many players taken ahead of him.0.91.4
206Robert WilliamsBOSCA 'dive and D' big, if the Celtics roster stays as constructed he could provide hyper-efficient fantasy stats similar to what Clint Capela did in 2016-2017 in 20-25 mpg.1.41.7
216Josh OkogieMINSGHis coach does not play young players, but Okogie is a stand out at the guard positon for his block and steal rate.11.9
226DeAnthony MeltonHOUSGA defensive specialist with the best steal/block potential among all guards, Melton will need to develop some semblance of an offensive game or he'll be Tony Allen. That's not necessarily a neg... a Tony Allen fantasy career with pick 22 would be great!1.72
236Jacob EvansGSWSFPerimiter D, above average boards, low turnover rate, steals, blocks and a little bit of shooting ability? Sounds a lot like another wing on the same team.1.61.2
247Landry ShametPHIPGYou're hoping for Lou Williams-type scoring reserve. Really good offensive player.1.10.5
257Grayson AllenUTASGAllen is a really good shooter, can pass and get some steals. Sounds like a potential top 100 player to me.10.4
267Anfernee SimonsPORSGThe draft's mystery man lands in Portland where a sneaky aging Blazers team could use a dose of youth and upside to their backcourt, particularly if Napier doesn't return.N/A1.8
277Khyri ThomasDETSGHe has a shot at starting at some point this year. The steal rate makes him more interesting than Kennard and Stanley Johnson has yet to establish himself.0.70.5
288Mitchell RobinsonNYKCIf you don't know his story, Robinson was a top 10 HS recruit with insane athleticism and length who never played college ball. His production in the EYBL was that of a lottery pick. Really nice upside play here, but non-stretch bigs rarely sniff 30 minutes anymore.1.80.2
298Omari SpellmanATLPFSpellman can become the player we hoped Ivica Zubac on a team that is light in big men with any upside.0.50.8
308Jevon CarterMEMPGI'd run (not walk) to the waiver wire were Conley to go down again, because Carter has an absurd steal rate and advanced metrics think he has a chance, too.11.1
318Donte DiVincenzoMILPGI like his chances to become a scoring sixth man right away.10.9
329Jerome RobinsonLACPGBreakout junior year, but these pop up upper classmen (e.g. Denzel Valentine) don't have the best track record.-0.10.7
339Chandler HutchinsonCHISG/SFAnother older wing prospect. I think he can be left on the watch list unless he looks like he's going to earn starter's minutes.-0.20.7
349Aaron HolidayINDPGSee comment for Jerome Robinson. People will talk about the opportunity, but he still needs to be good to take the starting role.-0.10.3

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Tom Trudeau

Tom Trudeau

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