TDG Consensus Dynasty Quarterback Rankings, January 2017

Welcome to the first installment of the The Dynasty Guru Consensus Positional Rankings. Over the next several weeks we’ll release consensus rankings for running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. The process is for five trusted dynasty players to make their own lists, we average them, fight about it, tinker and then mercifully release them to the wild for your enjoyment.

After the conclusion of these consensus rankings I will make one more pre-draft top 250 list followed by a post-draft list. (I strongly prefer not to rank 2017 rookies until they’ve been drafted, because as much as we like to play pro-scout and analyze stats, NFL draft position is the number one predictor of future success.)

Tier 1: The Consensus Top Asset

Rank Name High Low AVG Rank
1 Andrew Luck 1 1 1

All five rankers had Andrew Luck first overall. As I stated in my my curiously timed quarterback rankings from week 15, Luck has the best combination of track record, durability and age.
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Six Trades in 24 Hours

Sports has many clichés, perhaps to save fans valuable time and bandwidth that they can reinvest by ignoring their families on Thanksgiving afternoon. I like that the dynasty format has its own lazy catch phrase – “there is no offseason” – for writers to abuse. Ordinarily I might feel guilty about leaning on this crutch in my own writing, but such is the life of the TDG contributor with a full time job, an infant, and a massive addiction to making dynasty trades.

Never have I better exemplified the aforementioned lack of offseason than this Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening from 6:09 PM ET on 1/3 until 7:34 PM ET on 1/4 in one of my favorite dynasty football leagues. (Okay, so it was closer to 25 hours, but that title didn’t read as well.) During that time I executed six different dynasty trades in one league. Normally, I would assume readers don’t really care about any leagues other than their own, but how can I pass up a chance to chronicle such an epic volume of transactions?

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Digging for Diamonds: Dynasty Basketball Edition

I’m a sucker for two things when it comes to dynasty basketball prospects – efficiency and sexy defensive stats. If players are efficient, they’re more likely to get playing time and put up stats. Sexy defensive stats make for a high floor, because the player can be deployed as a useful specialist at minimum.

That’s why when I saw the ease and versatility with which Willy Hernangomez scores and the pace with which Richaun Holmes blocks shots and steals basketballs, I new I had to rip off the baseball writer’s “Digging for Diamonds” column.

Indeed, it does require some digging to find these two on anyones watch list. They only average about 30 minutes per game combined right now, but both have flashed per minute numbers that have piqued my interest.

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Dynasty Hoops Breakouts: Buy, Sell or Hold

When a blue chip prospect such as Karl Anthony Towns plays well, we can be reasonably sure that his production is a legitimate reflection of his true talent. On the other hand, when less heralded prospects break out it can be harder to trust their production will hold long term. Here’s my take on some recent lottery picks without the “can’t miss” tag attached to them enjoying career years.

  1. Myles Turner 

Age: 20 (21 in March)

PER: 21.23

Rookie WARP projection: 2.6 (8th in 2015-2016 draft class)

CARMELO 5-Year forecast: $50.7M (“Up-And-Comer”)

9-Cat Fantasy Ranking: 12th

Turner had a solid if unspectacular rookie year in 2015-2016, flashing a fantasy friendly skill set including a 95th percentile block rate. Despite falling to 11th overall in the draft, there had been a consensus view among scouts and the stat heads that he was an easy top ten pick in a top heavy draft. I ranked Turner 54th in my inaugural #Dynasty200 back in October. I thought that was aggressive at the time, but Turner has since broken out, hitting the high end of his potential outcomes.

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Dynasty Battle: Zach LaVine vs. Andrew Wiggins vs. D’Angelo Russell

Since my initial #Dynasty200 I’ve ranked these three Russell, Wiggins and Lavine, though I considered placing LaVine ahead of Wiggins in my December update. This is an interesting debate to me because Russell provides the most upside, LaVine has the most present value and Wiggins boasts the pedigree of the first overall pick. LaVine is already a top 50 redraft player thanks to his improved efficiency, play making ability and three-point shot making. Neither Russell nor Wiggins can come close to making that claim.

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TDG is Seeking Football and Basketball Writers

What the headline says. More details below in bullet point form. Thank you in advance for taking the time to submit something, I certainly do not take it for granted.

  • Please email DynastyGuru@gmail.com with the subject “I’m Not a Flakey Person.”
  • If you’re interested in writing about basketball
    • Please let me know what types of league(s) you play in
    • Please write 250-500 words on a pre-breakout player you think can be a nice buy-low OR a win-now veteran that you think is discounted unfairly due to age.
    • Please describe the commitment you think you’d like to make going forward
  • If you’re interested in writing about football
    • Please let me know what types of league(s) you play in
    • please write 250-500 words on either a college player OR a pre-breakout NFL player you think can be a nice buy low.
    • Please describe the commitment you think you’d like to make going forward
  • Evaluation Preferences (not pre-requisites) – familiar with analyzing prospects statistically (e.g. WARP for basketball and some familiarity with prospect bust rates for football based on draft slot).
  • Writing style preferences: Be yourself, but please be clear and concise (less is more) and avoid “mansplaining” every opinion. Please try not to be overly casual.

Looking forward to hearing from some of you soon.

-Tom Trudeau

David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell and Running Back Aging Curves

If you’ve checked out any of my #Dynasty250 rankings for fantasy football, you’ve probably noticed my rather extreme propensity to avoid paying a premium for workhorse running backs. (Please burn your eyes out when you get to number 18.)

If you’ve played fantasy football this year, you’ve probably noticed that David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell have both been one man wrecking crews.

If I’m honest, Johnson, Bell and rookie sensation Ezekiel Elliot have caused me to reconsider my bearish take on running backs. That’s a conversation for another day, one which needs to be weighed against the disappointing seasons of similarly highly regarded RB’s such as Todd Gurley and Lamar Miller. Instead, I’ll make the case that the time is now to sell Bell and Johnson in your dynasty leagues based on historical running back aging curves.

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