2018 Dynasty Baseball RankingsDynasty Baseball


Welcome to TDG top 500 OBP update, reader. Please share, join the conversation by commenting below, on Twitter and on our Facebook page. I’ll try to do a Reddit AMA, too.

By now you have surely scrolled down to the rankings and I’m writing for pride. If you’re familiar with my work, you won’t be surprised to see three prospects in my top 10. If you aren’t, let me just say that these are not normal times. I do not generally just slide the top prospects into the top of these lists, but these particular kids, man. They left me without a choice! I’ll also caution that I know not how to rank for a league that might fold, so know your league! If you don’t have confidence that your league will be around indefinitely, then sure, fade the kids.

While I can’t say I have done 500 proper deep dives, I can say that i have thoroughly dissected this year’s class of ‘pop up’ stars. Last year Tommy Pham came out of nowhere to lead this author to a first place finish in industry Devil’s Rejects. This year, guys like Francisco Cervelli, Max Muncy, Jose Aguilar, Brandon Nimmo, Ross Stripling and Jose Martinez (among others) have forced dynasty owners to reimagine where upside can come from and make quick, tough decisions with only small samples with which to evaluate. I generally expect this group to continue to have success if they can stay healthy, but I have yet to see anyone (besides me) trade for them across three industry leagues. In other words, I do not have a sense of what the masses think. Maybe that’s for the best.

Meanwhile, after getting caught up dreaming on Francisco Mejia (who could still be very good!) and AJ Minter (ditto!) I am actively trying to fade catchers and even my favorite closer specs. Meanwhile, in general I wouldn’t blame anyone who wants to fade all but the best of the best Proven Closers (TM) as teams like the Rays and Phillies tweak with their bullpen usage, more teams deploy their best relievers in non-save chances, and unfortunate Alex Colome / Kelvin Herrera-type trades make pumpkins out of our assets.

My ranks are heavily influenced by the fact that finding good hitters that run, (or even bad hitters that run), continues to be a challenge. Of course, as dynasty owners we must balance that instinct against the reality that speed and the willingness to run can decline very quickly.

Let’s talk Statcast for a moment. It was clearly overused in the preseason (gah… Austin Barnes’ xwOBA), but it’s a real punching bag right now when it can still be a valuable tool. Is it predictive? No. At least we don’t know how predictive it is. Is it descriptive? Generally, yes, and I would rather have that information than not. (I say generally, because there’s some evidence that Statcast can run hot and cold in different parks and also miss certain events entirely.) Preseason Jose Martinez and Brandon Nimmo were both guys that popped up on my “Statcast xwOBA darling” watch list… it giveth and taketh away if overused.

Finally, my ranks are influenced by two consistent realities in the dynasty leagues I am in. First – the natural tendency of a dynasty league is to become top heavy, with 30-50 percent of the league in some version of a rebuild. Therefore, with a high bar to start on a top heavy team, I’d prefer to take more chances on upside than roster so-so players in the Major Leagues. Second, the best teams separate themselves on OBP, which is why OBP-heavy players with shaky counting stats, such as Francisco Cervelli, tend to be more interesting to me for dynasty leagues. Said another way – the top teams are all going to float to the top of the counting stats by default, so rate stats can be the differentiating category.

Follow me on Twitter and feel free to hit me up with questions there directly.

1Mike TroutCFLAA
2Bryce HarperRFWAS
3Francisco LindorSSCLE
4Mookie BettsRFBOS
5Vladimir Guerrero Jr.3BTOR
6Ronald AcunaCFATL
7Juan SotoRFWAS
8Carlos CorreaSSHOU
9Trea TurnerSSWAS
10Jose Ramirez3BCLE
11Jose Altuve2BHOU
12Kris Bryant3BCHC
13Manny Machado3BBAL
14Aaron JudgeRFNYY
15Freddie Freeman1BATL
16Nolan Arenado3BCOL
17Alex Bregman3BHOU
18Corey SeagerSSLAD
19Gleyber TorresSSNYY
20Ozzie Albies2BATL
21Andrew BenintendiLFBOS
22Christian YelichCFMIL
23Xander BogaertsSSBOS
24Noah SyndergaardSPNYM
25Fernando TatisSSSD
26Anthony Rendon3BWAS
27Victor RoblesRFWAS
28Yoan Moncada2BCHW
29J.D. MartinezRFARI
30Gary SanchezCNYY
31Rhys HoskinsLFPHI
32George SpringerCFHOU
33Giancarlo StantonRFNYY
34Paul Goldschmidt1BARI
35Chris SaleSPBOS
36Cody Bellinger1BLAD
37Luis SeverinoSPNYY
38Anthony Rizzo1BCHC
39Brendan RodgersSSCOL
40Nomar MazaraRFTEX
41Tommy PhamLFSTL
42Trevor StorySSCOL
43Bo BichetteSSTOR
44Nick Senzel3BCIN
45Rafael Devers3BBOS
46Eloy JimenezRFCHW
47Max ScherzerSPWAS
48Joey Votto1BCIN
49Charlie BlackmonCFCOL
50Jacob deGromSPNYM
51Aaron NolaSPPHI
52Corey KluberSPCLE
53Matt Olson1BOAK
54Byron BuxtonCFMIN
55Joey Gallo3BTEX
56Gerrit ColeSPHOU
57Brandon Belt1BSF
58Javier Baez2BCHC
59Walker BuehlerRPLAD
60Kyle SchwarberLFCHC
61Marcell OzunaOFSTL
62Jose BerriosSPMIN
63Stephen StrasburgSPWAS
64Nicholas Castellanos3BDET
65Jameson TaillonSPPIT
66Blake SnellSPTB
67Miguel Sano3BMIN
68Clayton KershawSPLAD
69Josh Donaldson3BTOR
70Jose Abreu1BCHW
71Carlos MartinezSPSTL
72Justin UptonLFLAA
73A.J. PollockOFARI
74Justin VerlanderSPHOU
75James PaxtonSPSEA
76Kenley JansenRPLAD
77Starling MarteLFPIT
78Michael ConfortoLFNYM
79Eugenio Suarez3BCIN
80Madison BumgarnerSPSF
81J.T. RealmutoCMIA
82Willson ContrerasCCHC
83Kyle TuckerCFHOU
84Austin Riley3BATL
85Yordan AlvarezLFHOU
86Khris DavisLFOAK
87Aroldis ChapmanRPNYY
88Craig KimbrelRPBOS
89Lance McCullersSPHOU
90Buster PoseyCSF
91Wil Myers1BSD
92Shohei OhtaniSPLAA
93Royce LewisSSMIN
94Teoscar HernandezLFTOR
95Willy AdamesSSTB
96Amed RosarioSSNYM
97Forrest WhitleySPHOU
98Edwin DiazRPSEA
99Miguel Andujar3BNYY
100Taylor TrammellLFCIN
101Trevor BauerSPCLE
102Brandon NimmoOFNYM
103Adam EatonCFWAS
104Matt Chapman3BOAK
105Whit Merrifield2BKC
106Chris ArcherSPTB
107Carlos CarrascoSPCLE
108Patrick CorbinSPARI
109Austin MeadowsCFPIT
110Mike FoltynewiczSPATL
111David DahlLFCOL
112Ian HappCFCHC
113Jose MartinezLFSTL
114Carter KieboomSSWAS
115Jesus SanchezLFTB
116Keston Hiura2BMIL
117Max Muncy3BLAD
118Gregory PolancoRFPIT
119Andrew McCutchenCFSF
120Yu DarvishSPCHC
121Mitch HanigerRFSEA
122Jesus Aguilar1BMIL
123Dee Gordon2BSEA
124Billy HamiltonCFCIN
125Eric Thames1BMIL
126Corey KnebelRPMIL
127Zack GreinkeSPARI
128Ross StriplingSPLAD
129Brent HoneywellSPTB
130Mike Moustakas3BKC
131Elvis AndrusSSTEX
132Jean SeguraSSSEA
133Yasiel PuigRFLAD
134Eric Hosmer1BKC
135Jake Lamb3BARI
136Jesse WinkerRFCIN
137Lewis BrinsonCFMIA
138Clint FrazierLFNYY
139Tim AndersonSSCHW
140Franchy CorderoCFSD
141Lorenzo CainCFKC
142Travis Shaw3BMIL
143Edwin EncarnacionDHCLE
144Daniel Murphy2BWAS
145Andrelton SimmonsSSLAA
146Garrett RichardsSPLAA
147Dallas KeuchelSPHOU
148Jon GraySPCOL
149Alex WoodSPLAD
150David PriceSPBOS
151Nelson CruzDHSEA
152Matt Carpenter1BSTL
153Mike ClevingerSPCLE
154Eduardo RodriguezSPBOS
155Carlos Santana1BPHI
156Salvador PerezCKC
157Sean NewcombSPATL
158Mike SorokaRHPBraves
159Cesar Hernandez2BPHI
160Eddie RosarioLFMIN
161Brian Dozier2BMIN
162Robinson Cano2BSEA
163Kyle Seager3BSEA
164Ryan BraunLFMIL
165Justin Turner3BLAD
166Jake BauersLFTB
167Didi GregoriusSSNYY
168Kevin KiermaierCFTB
169Jo AdellLFLAA
170Charlie MortonSPHOU
171Michael BrantleyLFCLE
172Aaron HicksCFNYY
173Miles MikolasSPSTL
174Masahiro TanakaSPNYY
175Jose QuintanaSPCHC
176Scott ScheblerRFCIN
177Johnny CuetoSPSF
178Nick WilliamsRFPHI
179Chris TaylorCFLAD
180Luis CastilloSPCIN
181Josh HaderRPMIL
182Ender InciarteCFATL
183Luis UriasSSSD
184Peter Alonso1BNYM
185Garrett Hampson2BCOL
186Jorge MateoSSOAK
187Josh Naylor1BSD
188Bradley ZimmerCFCLE
189Robbie RaySPARI
190Yoenis CespedesLFNYM
191Jonathan Schoop2BBAL
192DJ LeMahieu2BCOL
193Tyler SkaggsSPLAA
194Kenta MaedaSPLAD
195Yasmani GrandalCLAD
196Jorge SolerRFKC
197Justin Smoak1BTOR
198Gio GonzalezSPWAS
199Odubel HerreraCFPHI
200Paul DeJongSSSTL
201Max KeplerRFMIN
202Nick PivettaSPPHI
203Greg Bird1BNYY
204Marcus StromanSPTOR
205Scott Kingery2BPHI
206Ryan McMahon1BCOL
207Zack CollinsCCHW
208Adam JonesCFBAL
209Kevin GausmanSPBAL
210Jimmy NelsonSPMIL
211Andrew HeaneySPLAA
212Joc PedersonCFLAD
213Michael FulmerSPDET
214Addison RussellSSCHC
215Blake TreinenRPOAK
216Sean DoolittleRPWAS
217Carlos RodonSPCHW
218Sonny GraySPNYY
219Dylan BundySPBAL
220Francisco CervelliCPIT
221Felipe VazquezRPPIT
222Francisco MejiaCCLE
223Joe MusgroveRPPIT
224Jeimer Candelario3BDET
225Brian Anderson3BMIA
226Alex ReyesSPSTL
227Michael KopechSPCHW
228Mike ZuninoCSEA
229J.A. HappSPTOR
230Ryan Zimmerman1BWAS
231Shin-Soo ChooRFTEX
232Zack GodleySPARI
233Brad HandRPSD
234Raimel TapiaRFCOL
235Manuel MargotCFSD
236Justin Bour1BMIA
237Colin Moran3BPIT
238Matt KempOFLAD
239Luiz GoharaSPATL
240Jack FlahertySPSTL
241Freddy PeraltaSPMIL
242Shane BieberSPCLE
243Rick PorcelloSPBOS
244Sean ManaeaSPOAK
245Luis RobertCFCHW
246Leody TaverasCFTEX
247Estevan FlorialCFNYY
248Tirso OrnelasOFSD
249Jeisson RosarioCFSD
250Jhailyn OrtizRFPHI
251Daulton VarshoCARI
252Jesus LuzardoSPOAK
253Franklin BarretoSSOAK
254Heliot RamosCFSF
255Sixto SanchezSPPHI
256A.J. PukSPOAK
257Daniel Robertson2BTB
258Maikel Franco3BPHI
259Josh Bell1BPIT
260Jake ArrietaSPCHC
261Colton Welker3BCOL
262Khalil LeeOFKC
263Jahmai JonesCFLAA
264Esteury Ruiz2BSD
265Tyler O’NeillLFSTL
266Raisel IglesiasRPCIN
267Jon LesterSPCHC
268Steven Souza Jr.RFTB
269Yusniel DiazRFLAD
270Nick GordonSSMIN
271Delino DeShieldsLFTEX
272Trey ManciniLFBAL
273Taijuan WalkerSPARI
274Jonathan Villar2BMIL
275Dustin FowlerRFOAK
276Matt Thaiss1BLAA
277Christin StewartLFDET
278Keibert RuizCLAD
279Yonder Alonso1BCLE
280Stephen PiscottyRFOAK
281Andres GimenezSSNYM
282Lazaro ArmenterosLFOAK
283Seuly MatiasOFKC
284Bobby Bradley1BCLE
285Luke WeaverSPSTL
286Jonathan LoaisigaSPNYY
287Brandon MorrowRPCHC
288Cody AllenRPCLE
289Alex VerdugoCFLAD
290MacKenzie GoreSPSD
291Dansby SwansonSSATL
292Scooter Gennett2BCIN
293Adam DuvallLFCIN
294Oneil CruzSSPIT
295Mitch KellerSPPIT
296Marcus SemienSSOAK
297Tyler FlowersCATL
298J.P. Crawford3BPHI
299Rougned Odor2BTEX
300Jason Kipnis2BCLE
301Kevin PillarCFTOR
302Brandon CrawfordSSSF
303Hunter GreeneSPCIN
304Cristian PacheCFATL
305Randal GrichukLFSTL
306Danny JansenCTOR
307Corey RayCFMIL
308Justus SheffieldSPNYY
309Andrew MillerRPCLE
310Orlando ArciaSSMIL
311Eduardo Escobar3BMIN
312Mitch Moreland1BBOS
313Vince VelasquezSPPHI
314Seth LugoSPNYM
315Matt DavidsonDHCWS
316Anthony AlfordLFTOR
317Brendan McKay1BTB
318Luis Alexander BasabeOFCWS
319Will BensonRFCLE
320Ketel MarteSSARI
321C.J. Cron1BTB
322Adrian Beltre3BTEX
323Brandon MarshRFLAA
324Jeurys FamiliaRPNYM
325Raul Mondesi2BKC
326Mallex SmithCFTB
327Jason HeywardRFCHC
328Shedric Long2BCIN
329Alex KirilloffOFMin
330Wilson RamosCTB
331Michael WachaSPSTL
332Jacob FariaSPTB
333David PeraltaRFARI
334Kyle HendricksSPCHC
335Danny DuffySPKC
336Josh ReddickRFHOU
337Corey DickersonLFTB
338Calvin MitchellOFPIT
339Akil BaddooCFMIN
340Hyun-Jin RyuSPLAD
341Monte HarrisonCFMIA
342Miguel Cabrera1BDET
343Zach BrittonRPBAL
344Evan GattisCHOU
345Willie CalhounLFTEX
346Brett GardnerLFNYY
347Todd Frazier3BNYY
348Aaron SanchezSPTOR
349Ian Kinsler2BLAA
350Jurickson ProfarLFTEX
351Adam OttavinoRPCOL
352Leonys MartinOFDET
353Roberto OsunaRPTOR
354Luis Garcia2BWAS
355DJ PetersCFLAD
356Seranthony DominguezRPPHI
357Ryon Healy3BSEA
358Enyel de los SantosSPPHI
359Asdrubal CabreraSSNYM
360Jose Peraza2BCIN
361Jeter DownsSSCIN
362Wander FrancoSSTB
363Archie BradleyRPARI
364Nolan Jones3BCLE
365Avisail GarciaRFCHW
366Michael TaylorCFWAS
367Kyle WrightSPATL
368Ryan MountcastleSSBAL
369Welington CastilloCCHW
370Jed Lowrie2BOAK
371Alexander CanarioOFSF
372Isan Diaz2BMIA
373Dexter FowlerCFSTL
374Lucas Duda1BTB
375Miguel AmayaCCHC
376Frankie MontasSPOAK
377Dylan CoveySPCWS
378George ValeraOFCLE
379Nathaniel Lowe1BTB
380Miguel Hiraldo2BTOR
381MJ MelendezCKC
382Ronaldo HernandezCTB
383Fernando RomeroSPMIN
384Dermis Garcia3BNYY
385Gavin LuxSSLAD
386Lucius FoxSSTB
387Austin Beck
388Freudis NovaSSHOU
389Reynaldo LopezSPCHW
390Arodys VizcainoRPATL
391Keone KelaRPTEX
392Julio Pablo MartinezOFTEX
393Jackie Bradley Jr.CFBOS
394Jay BruceRFNYM
395Evan Longoria3BSF
396Ian Desmond1BCOL
397Joe Panik2BSF
398Wander JavierSSMIN
399Michel BaezSPSD
400Kolby AllardSPATL
401Dinelson LametSPSD
402Alec HansenSPCHW
403Adrian MorejonSPSD
404Mike MontgomeryRPCHC
405Albert AbreuSPNYY
406Rich HillSPLAD
407Josh Harrison2BPIT
408Aaron AltherrLFPHI
409Ben Zobrist2BCHC
410Matt Adams1BWAS
411Kendrys MoralesDHTOR
412Yangervis Solarte2BTOR
413Steven MatzSPNYM
414Julio TeheranSPATL
415Jeff SamardzijaSPSF
416Yulieski Gurriel1BHOU
417Ken GilesRPHOU
418Wade DavisRPCOL
419Drew PomeranzSPBOS
420Anthony DeSclafaniSPCIN
421Kyle LewisCFSEA
422Lance LynnSPSTL
423Logan Morrison1BTB
424Myles StrawOFHOU
425Austin BarnesCLAD
426Brad Miller2BTB
427Brandon WoodruffSPMIL
428Hudson PottsSSSD
429Jedd Gyorko3BSTL
430Jon DuplantierSPARI
431Chase AndersonSPMIL
432Marwin GonzalezLFHOU
433Corbin BurnesSPMIL
434Josh JamesSPHOU
435Ian AndersonSPATL
436Julio UriasSPLAD
437Pavin Smith1BARI
438Yohan Camargo3BATL
439Christian Villanueva3BSD
440Kyle Barraclough
441Griffin CanningSPLAA
442Tyler MahleSPCIN
443Blake RutherfordCFCHW
444Kevin Smith3BTOR
445Alex FaedoSPDET
446Nick Solak
447Tim BeckhamSSBAL
448Joe RossSPWAS
449Ervin SantanaSPMIN
450Mark TrumboDHBAL
451Wilmer Flores3BNYM
452Shane BazSPPIT
453Kelvin HerreraRPKC
454Nate PearsonRPTOR
455Jasrado ChisholmSSARI
456Kristian RobinsonOFARI
457Matt ManningSPDET
458Aledmys DiazSSTOR
459Yadier MolinaCSTL
460Michael Chavis3BBOS
461Ronald Guzman1BTEX
462Harrison BaderCFSTL
463Wilmer DifoSSWAS
464Tony KempOFHOU
465Zack CozartSSLAA
466Russell MartinCTOR
467Cavan Biggio2BTOR
468Nick KinghamSPPIT
469Domingo SantanaOFMIL
470Ke’Bryan Hayes3BPIT
471Derek FisherLFHOU
472Jose UrenaSPMIA
473Brusdar GraterolSPMIN
474Joe Mauer1BMIN
475Bubba ThompsonCFTEX
476Zack WheelerSPNYM
477Cedric MullinsOFBAL
478Starlin Castro2BMIA
479Brent RookerLFMIN
480Danny SalazarSPCLE
481Hunter RenfroeOFSD
482Niko Goodrum2BDET
483Trevor RosenthalRP
484Jeren KendallCFLAD
485Max StassiCHOU
486Daz CameronCFDET
487Dustin Pedroia2BBOS
488Kolten Wong2BSTL
489Cole TuckerSSPIT
490Erick FeddeSPWAS
491Chris DevenskiRPHOU
492Tanner RoarkSPWAS
493Micker Adolfo
494Chance SiscoCBAL
495Hanley RamirezDHBOS
496Dane DunningSPCWS
497Jordan HicksRPSTL
498Kyle FreelandSPCOL
499Zack BurdiRPCWS
500Edwin Rios1BLAD

The Author

Tom Trudeau

Tom Trudeau


  1. JT
    June 28, 2018 at 6:14 am

    Is it possible to see all 500 at once?

  2. […] TheDynastyGuru.com updates their rankings of the top 500 overall players for dynasty OBP leagues. […]

  3. Will
    June 28, 2018 at 7:20 am

    Darvish should be listed as 120, but he’s listed as 128. I’d also love to see all 500 at once. Thanks!!! Love your lists!

    • June 28, 2018 at 9:50 am

      Dunno how to do that, but I’ll ask around. We use a table plug in to present the ranks in a more attractive manner, but it looks like the view total maxes out at 100.

      • June 28, 2018 at 5:06 pm

        Any way you could add these to the Google Sheet doc with all the other rankings? Makes it a lot easier to manipulate the rankings. Thanks for the good work!

        • June 28, 2018 at 5:08 pm

          I will talk to TDG managers about doing what we did preseason where donations yielded consolidated google sheet. It’s not that I am opposed to helping out individuals with something more convenient, but the reality is that this is a free site and we rely on clicks to the blog (not google drive) to get ad revenue and position ourselves as a growing entity.

  4. Will
    June 28, 2018 at 7:26 am

    Where’s Fernando Romero? Thanks!

    • June 28, 2018 at 9:49 am

      Fixed. Hudson Potts was listed 2x.

  5. Will
    June 28, 2018 at 7:40 am

    Jon Lester?

    • June 28, 2018 at 9:49 am

      Fixed. Luis Robert was listed 2x.

  6. Neil
    June 28, 2018 at 9:00 am

    Hey Tom, you’ve got Luis Robert at both 245 and 267….

  7. Brian
    June 28, 2018 at 9:22 am

    Awesome list I appreciate the hard work that went into it!!!

    FYI Luis Robert is listed twice 245 & 267 as is Hudson Potts 383 & 428. You must like them twice as much as the other guys 🙂

    • June 28, 2018 at 9:49 am

      Thanks. Looks like they took Jon Lester and Fernando Romero’s spots. There may be other omissions so keep the nitpicks coming Brian and others.

  8. Eddie
    June 28, 2018 at 10:24 am

    Eddie Rosario looks like a true breakout but way down at 160. Believe thats lower than he was preseason. Thoughts?

  9. Eddie
    June 28, 2018 at 10:32 am

    Eddie Rosario looks like a true breakout and you’ve lowered him to 160. Thoughts?

    • June 28, 2018 at 11:14 am

      I knew he’d stand out to people because he’s young and having a great season. I expect production going forward closer to his projections, which is a slightly above league average hitter with 10 steals. I’m not opposed to being aggressive with breakout hitters, I just don’t really believe this is his true talent based on the batted ball data I looked at.

  10. Peter Kwiecinski
    June 28, 2018 at 1:26 pm

    Still pretty bullish on Miguel Sano…think he rebounds from this demotion??

    • June 28, 2018 at 3:21 pm

      Sure do. He was legitimately awful, but I can’t fade him anymore when he’s coming off three straight years of double digit walk rates and 220-260 ISO’s.

  11. Alex
    June 28, 2018 at 1:42 pm

    Hey Tom really appreciate the midseason rankings. How difficult would it be to include the player ages? If too much work no big deal but I always like that reference point.

    • June 28, 2018 at 3:22 pm

      I could have waited to release this and figured out how to do it efficiently, but I really wanted to get the ranks out. If Bret adds them for his top 500 maybe I can add them later.

  12. Fantasy Guru
    June 28, 2018 at 8:42 pm

    You really do like players that run. Jorge Mateo ahead of Paul Dejong? I personally think that you have prospects ranked too highly in general compared to players who have already had success in majors.

  13. Robert Brady
    June 29, 2018 at 8:12 pm

    Any way you could post a link so we could export this? Also curious if you could include previous ranking?

  14. Greg
    June 30, 2018 at 2:13 pm

    My league and I have been discussing this post for a few days and I decided it was important to put some of our issues into the comments. While I recognize ranking 500 players across the majors and minors is no small feat, I really have a hard time agreeing with some of your rankings.
    As a positive note, I think when you look at specific positions you have done ok in their order, but when comparing position to position is where this list goes off the rails. Although this is a little difficult to determine as some OF are put in by specific position, others are just OF. I’ll try not to just ridicule your individual ranks, but without examples it’s hard to really get my point across.
    In general, it seems like you have ranked everyone under the pretense of “ceiling remaining” and have negated a TON of the risk associated with nearly every ranked prospect. This is evident very early in your ranks as you have Soto Acuna and Vlad higher than Turner Correa Jose Bryant Machado Judge – all of whom are excellent proven players now. This is also seen with ranks of Buehler (59), Lewis (93), Adames (95), Whitley (97), Trammell (100) Honeywell (129) Brinson (137).. etc… Eddie Rosario is at 160 and is ranked in the top 10 hitters in my OBP dynasty league right now.
    I also think you have missed on some veterans who really provide little value:
    Cesar Hernandez (159) is fine in runs and OBP but brings nearly nothing in other counting stats
    Kiermaier (168) is 28 has poor ratios and has yet to be healthy
    Billy Hamilton (124) – you said OBP league right?
    Kipnis (300) – as a CLE fan this rank alone negates all credibility. He hit .230 last year and barely paced 15 homers. He is not good anymore and doesn’t belong on the top 500
    Avisail Garcia (365) – shouldn’t be on this list. He has never hit 20 homers and is owned in only 23% of Yahoo leagues. He is waiver wire material at best and you have ranked him around actual interesting and valuable players Seranthony Dominguez, Archie Bradley, and Kyle Wright.
    All of your catchers outside Gary Sanchez are at minimum 50-75 spots too high; Sanchez is only 15-20 too high. Catchers bring nearly nothing and the difference in what Sal Perez brings compared to Flowers, Ramos, and Gattis is not 150 spots difference. Buster Posey wasn’t even a top 100 HITTER last year, isn’t a top 100 hitter so far this year and you have him in the top 100 players overall. Catchers are routinely some of the last players drafted and many teams use the “hot hand” approach on the waiver wire to rotate the position because of the direction teams are now taking with platoons, evaluation of defense, and the general up and down nature of the position.
    I really do appreciate the 500 that TDG does as really there isn’t anyone in the industry who does something like this with prospects and current MLB guys. But in comparison to other top 500s, this one was pretty poor.

    • June 30, 2018 at 3:11 pm

      Greg – it’s entirely possible that this particular list doesn’t work for whatever specific settings you and your league mates play with… you seem pretty adamant about catcher value, including referencing Evan Gattis, who loses catcher eligibility next year. It’s also entirely possible that this list *was* poor (the reality is around this time of year that you could make changes every day with more information about how players perform or what roles they have, etc.).
      As for the objections to the aggressive rankings of kids – if you prefer to wait for youngest players to prove they are better before ranking them higher, that’s your prerogative. It’s a reasonable stance that a lot of people that I beat in dynasty leagues every year take and I disagree with.
      I really do appreciate the time you took to point out where my ranks sucked, but in comparison to other comments, this one was pretty dumb.

  15. Jeramie
    June 30, 2018 at 3:41 pm

    I don’t know who this Greg guy is, but I feel like he is 100% on point with the insane over value of the kids on their first cup of coffee. These guys have not even been in the league long enough for pitchers to adjust ( or at all in Vlads case) yet you have 3 of them in the top 7 in ALL of baseball. Yes I get it is dynasty and the ranks will fluctuate but this is flat out preposterous. It is almost as if you have taken this once amazing list/concept and turned it into a peice written for reactions rather than a useful tool for us dynasty nerds.

    I wasn’t going to even post this until I saw your unprofessional response to Mr Greg above. Responding to your fan base in such a matter, not only lacks professionalism, but it is flat out “pretty dumb”

    • June 30, 2018 at 6:20 pm

      I thought my response was pretty tame. I challenge anyone to spend tens of hours on a project and be tamer to some dude who wastes my time and calls my work poor to no end. (Great. Don’t use the ranks, then.)

      I have heard versions of your criticism for years. It’s boring, because it’s lazy analysis and risk free to say proven veterans are more valuable than the unproven ones as a blanket statement. This is value I believe in, the evaluation process that I’ve had a lot of success with, and (not for nothing) in he industry leagues I’m in these three kids are the most untouchable assets in dynasty.
      I won’t knock anyone who values a Machado more highly than a Juan Soto. I get it. But do so at your own risk. These are not normal times and this trio aren’t generic top prospects du jour.

  16. MM
    June 30, 2018 at 7:44 pm

    Just curious why Whitley is 97 and Reyes & Kopech are 226/227. Not saying I disagree, just have seen a lot of other people value them around evenly… so just wondering what you see in Whitley that makes him 130 ranks higher when considering them in trades.

    Also. If you had to pick one contrarian favorite that could jump up the rankings by the next time you do them? Thanks for the list Tom!

    • Chuck
      July 5, 2018 at 7:38 am

      I’d be interested in any reasoning you have for the Whitley ranking as well. Taillon is another name that is notably high on this list that I would be interested in hearing an explanation for. (Similar to MM, I am not bashing these rankings, just curious the thoughts behind them).

      Appreciate the hard work.

      • July 5, 2018 at 8:25 am

        I don’t mind specific questions where you disagree or are confused… I like them. I don’t appreciate rudeness, though. I do these for free to share my enthusiasm for dynasty with the community.

        See above for Whitley feedback. I suppose I will add that this far into the season we shouldn’t be afraid to discount your preseason notions of what each guy is supposed to be. Reyes and Kopech are arrow down.

        Taillon is too high, you guys. Eventually I have to hit publish, but with more looks he would be around 100. I tip my hats to the analysts whose opinion is unchanged week to week, but my evaluation is more like the stock market where we should pay attention to every new data point (e.g. Taillon’s crummy last start) and try not to overreact (e.g. Sonny Gray and Marcus Stroman, who is turning things around after he was radioactive for much of the season). That said, he checks a lot of boxes (velo, ground balls, park, age, pedigree, good peripherals), so I do expect the ERA to come way down.

    • July 5, 2018 at 8:16 am

      Ooo fun questions!

      1. Whitley is my number one pitching prospect, then for fantasy we get to consider that he has the best team in the majors (wins! defense!) and a pitcher’s park to pitch in. I have no shares, so it’s not a bias thing (which is a real problem from rankers, such as myself).
      2. Meanwhile Reyes (health) and Kopech (command / production) are doing what great pitching prospects do, specifically get hurt and struggle with command in the high minors. The ceilings remain high for both, but we can already see the long term floors (always hurt and/or a power reliever).
      3. A lot of the potential ‘jumpers’ are amateur draft guys that aren’t listed… my guy is Xavier Edwards. Further, my contrarian favorites are already very high (e.g. Tirso Ornelas, Josh Naylor, Oneil Cruz, Miguel Hiraldo). I try not to be influenced by any other ranks… the more I do this, the more you realize how much subjectivity there is between like 30-150 AND how different fantasy is than real life industry lists. If Max Muncy can sustain this run, he can also make it into the top 25. Obviously, most people don’t expect him to keep *this* up.

  17. Doug
    July 2, 2018 at 11:43 am

    Did I miss Brian Dozier?

    • July 2, 2018 at 11:45 am

      Doug – sometimes when I move guys around I will accidentally copy over a player. Dozier was in the 150 range if I recall. Thanks for catching that!

  18. Nate
    July 6, 2018 at 7:45 pm

    A. Almora?

    • July 7, 2018 at 7:34 am

      Sure he could be on this list somewhere, but he looks a lot more valuable to the Cubs than to Fantasy players. Power, speed and playing time are all an issue.

  19. Andrew
    July 8, 2018 at 12:34 pm

    Obviously you still feel pretty strongly about Amed Rosario at 96, but how long would you expect it to be until he’s actually playable in fantasy? I’m in a contract/keeper league where he’s a free agent, but we only have 3 bench spots so it’s kinda hard to keep a guy that you can’t play. Still have faith in him? He’s not even playing full time anymore and has been pretty abysmal.

    • July 12, 2018 at 9:30 am

      It’s a big 2nd half for Rosario. If he doesn’t play better, he’s definitely someone that could slip into the 150-200 range and continue to follow a guy like Addison Russell out of the top 200 after that. I would point to Tim Anderson as a reason you don’t give up on Rosario, who I think has more raw power and is a little faster. I know it might seem hard to believe right now, but with more seasoning, confidence and production Rosario has 20 bombs and 40 steals in him. He’s a 6 or a 7 in the field, so the playing time should be there on a bad team. He’s still very young and has shown progress since last year’s truly abysmal debut.

  20. Jack
    July 11, 2018 at 12:32 pm

    Great stuff Tom, thank you!

  21. Chris
    July 11, 2018 at 4:56 pm

    No Joey Lucchesi?

    • July 12, 2018 at 9:25 am

      He’s fine, but there’s plenty of Luchesi / Suarez types that can sneak in with a strong second half that don’t really need to be here yet. That said, 300-500 (or even 550 if it went that deep) can be re-arranged generally. In a month I’m sure there will be guys outside the top 500 that deserve to be in the 300’s and guys in the 300’s that don’t belong. Like I said earlier, eventually you have to click publish!

  22. Brian
    July 12, 2018 at 9:07 am

    How much would your pitching rankings change if you replaced Wins with Quality Starts?

    • July 12, 2018 at 9:23 am

      Not much because wins are already really hard to project and don’t factor too much for dynasty. In terms of short term considerations I care more about the park and defense. I imagine QS/wins differences are more important in redraft or in any given year than a dynasty list. I’m focused way more on how good I think the pitcher is and for how long they can sustain that level.

      The big changes would be based on things like points leagues where steals matter way less. I know some points leagues are structured such that Fernando Rodney scores more points than Josh Hader. So you do have to know your league.

  23. Michael
    July 13, 2018 at 12:22 pm

    Trevor Bauer at 101? I would gladly trade with any manager who values Bauer so low.

  24. Cody
    July 14, 2018 at 3:21 pm

    Where is Triston McKenzie?

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