The Top 150 Dynasty League Outfielders, Part 2 (#51-150)
Not much of an introduction here for Part 2, as we’ll just jump right into the fold. The only thing to note is that here is where the underbelly of the position rests, and it causes there to be a minimal difference between a lot of players on this list. So if you think someone in the 80’s should be in the 60’s, you probably won’t get too much of an argument from me. Also, safety is out the window at this point in the list – since safety only works when the numbers are decent. For the back-end of your OF, it should be all about upside – which is the best way to take advantage of the depth in 4th and 5th outfielders.
And now your next 100 dynasty league outfielders, with sporadic commentary:
#51 – Shane Victorino, OF, Boston Red Sox
The combination of Fenway and John Farrell’s running tendencies should breathe life back into Victorino’s fantasy value. But to be perfectly honest, his value doesn’t even have to bounce back to be worthy of this spot – after all, he did hit 11 HR and steal 39 bases last year.
#52 – Andre Ethier, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
#53 – Jason Kubel, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
#54 – Cameron Maybin, OF, San Diego Padres
So a safe OF, a medium risk OF and an upside OF walk into a bar. Ethier should have plenty of RBI opportunities in that Dodger lineup and Kubel should retain a lot of value by not being the Arizona OF that got dealt away from the desert. But Maybin is a guy I have my eye squarely on. He’s still only going to be 26 on Opening Day and he has power potential in the bat. He’s a very worthy flier if you’re looking for a guy with full-on breakout possibilities.
#55 – Torii Hunter, OF, Detroit Tigers
#56 – Coco Crisp, OF, Oakland Athletics
Sometimes the less exciting guy is the more exciting guy, and with Hunter and Crisp, that certainly feels like the case. Both of these guys will slow down at some point, but I’m not going to bet against them in the short-term.
#57 – Dexter Fowler, OF, Colorado Rockies
Playing in Colorado is both a help and a hindrance on Fowler’s perceived fantasy value. It helps because, well duh, it’s Coors Field. It hurts because people are always predicting Fowler to have a “breakout”, when it’s much more fun to just appreciate him for the solid player he his.
#58 – Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Minnesota Twins
#59 – Tyler Austin, OF, New York Yankees
#60 – Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
#61 – Chris Davis, OF, Baltimore Orioles
#62 – Norichika Aoki, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Two of 2012’s most unlikely stars, Davis and Aoki enter 2013 with big eyes on them, judging whether or not their success was a fluke. The answer is likely no for each. Davis has legit power, and if his strikeout rate continues to stabilize around 30%, he can maintain a .260-.270 average due to his ability to hit line drives. Aoki wasn’t supposed to be this good, so it’s hard to wrap your head around it, but a 9.4% K-rate and 30 SB in his first MLB season? I like where this is going.
#63 – Colby Rasmus, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
He really flashed that potential in June, when Rasmus hit .291/.331/.547 with 8 HR, 25 RBI and a 17.7% K-rate. A slump and a groin injury slowed him down in the second half, and when I say “slowed him down”, I mean, “threw him into a bottomless pit”. But I’m a sucker for Rasmus and I know it – and he’s still only 26 years old, so I’m in for a couple more years of this.
#64 – Bubba Starling, OF, Kansas City Royals
#65 – David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies
#66 – Anthony Gose, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
It’s easy to forget about Gose since he hasn’t established himself as an everyday player in Toronto and he doesn’t qualify for prospect lists any more, but he’s too talented to fall into post-hype limbo. He will always have contact issues, but he has 50 steal potential – and need I remind you, no one stole 50 bases in 2012.
#66 1/2 – Dayan Viciedo, Chicago White Sox
#67 – Garrett Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates
#68 – Matt Joyce, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
#69 – Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs
This group is similar to the first group of sluggers in Part 1, except they’re worse. Jones is unplayable against southpaws (his career .590 OPS vs LHP is lower than the career OPS of Rey Ordonez), but very underrated against righties (career .852 OPS). Joyce is just a younger version of Garrett Jones, with his career .613 OPS vs southpaws and .851 OPS vs right-handers. However, Joyce has never hit 20 HR in a single season. Soriano just had one of the quietest 30 HR, 100 RBI seasons I’ve ever seen, and honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him do the same thing again in 2013.
#70 – Ichiro Suzuki, New York Yankees
The whole “Ichiro bouncing back with the Yankees” storyline was a nice one for 2012, but I’m not so confident that the party will continue into 2013. So while his BABIP jumped back up to .337, he also only walked 4 times unintentionally in 240 PA after the trade – a terrible number even for him. If he hits .300 again in 2013, it may come with a .310 OBP.
#71 – Angel Pagan, San Francisco Giants
The man traded by the Mets for Andres Torres in 2011 (yes, seriously) is starting to feel a gust as his back as people start to see how underrated he is from a fantasy perspective.
#72 – Mason Williams, New York Yankees
#73 – Jake Marisnick, Toronto Blue Jays
#74 – Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers
#75 – David Murphy, Texas Rangers
#76 – Ryan Ludwick, Cincinnati Reds
Two more terribly underrated outfielders. There were 10 hitters in 2012 who had a .300 average, 15 HR and 10 SB: Ryan Braun, Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Hill, Alex Rios, Carlos Gonzalez, Austin Jackson, David Wright, Yadier Molina and David Murphy. And he’s been doing his thing for five seasons now. Ludwick gets a bad rap for his days in San Diego and Pittsburgh, but those are pretty heavy pitchers’ parks – he can go 25/80 in the middle of that Reds lineup again.
#77 – Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers
For me, the signs point towards 2012 being the career year for Carlos Gomez. He’s not the type of hitter who is likely to maintain a HR/FB rate above 14%, and he’s never going to hit for average. The 30 steal potential is for real, but he also hasn’t stayed healthy, playing in fewer than 100 games in both 2010 and 2011.
#78 – Ben Revere, Philadelphia Phillies
On many teams, Revere would be a really good fourth outfielder. On the Phillies, he’ll get winded covering the two-thirds of the OF not being attended to by Delmon Young and Domonic Brown. He’s pretty much useless everywhere but steals.
#79 – Tyler Colvin, Colorado Rockies
Even with 350 AB, Colvin can still be a starting caliber OF in medium-sized mixed leagues. The question is how much playing time he will get. A Dexter Fowler trade would go a long way towards getting him that extra PT.
#80 – Jackie Bradley Jr, Boston Red Sox
#81 – Carlos Quentin, San Diego Padres
#82 – Michael Saunders, Seattle Mariners
The fences are coming (in)! The fences are coming (in)!
#83 – Denard Span, Washington Nationals
#84 – Alejandro De Aza, Chicago White Sox
Span and De Aza should be able to put up similar numbers, sitting atop their respective lineups going forward – it’s just a matter of whether you like the more steady option (Span) or the slightly higher upside option (De Aza). I lean Span for the safety.
#85 – Adam Eaton, Arizona Diamondbacks
#86 – Aaron Hicks, Minnesota Twins
Could these be your opening day CF for Arizona and Minnesota? It certainly looks possible at this point.
#87 – Cody Ross, Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona needed Cody Ross like John Bonham needed another drink, but they signed him anyway to a ridiculous 3 year contract. Fortunately for fantasy owners, Chase Field should help Ross as he’s a fly ball hitter, and the whole 400-500 AB per OF thing Kevin Towers is blabbing about now shouldn’t hurt him at all, as long as he’s not sitting vs LHP (career .928 OPS versus southpaws).
#88 – Albert Almora, Chicago Cubs
#89 – Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians
#90 – Jon Jay, St Louis Cardinals
There’s not a ton of upside with these two, but if you like to have predictability at the end of your OF, they are two of the best options around at this point. Both should hit for relatively high averages (.280-.290) and contribute a little bit across the board. They are great complements to lower-average sluggers like Colby Rasmus or Matt Joyce.
#91 – Emilio Bonifacio, Toronto Blue Jays
Bonifacio would rank a little higher if he wasn’t ticketed for a super-utility role in Toronto. I still think he’ll get around 400 AB for the year if healthy, which should make him good for another 30+ SB season.
#91 1/2 – Brett Gardner, New York Yankees
#92 – Peter Bourjos, Los Angeles Angels
I still believe Bourjos can hit. And the Angels should give him much more rope than they did last year, since there are no more Mike Trouts coming up through the minors for them. It’s just Vernon Wells’ corpse.
#93 – Chris Young, Oakland Athletics
Not a great scenario for Young in Oakland, with their offense suppressing home park and crowded OF, but he’s still talented enough to go 20/20 again (which he’s done three times in his career).
#94 – Gary Brown, San Francisco Giants
#95 – Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates
#96 – Will Venable, San Diego Padres
This is your friendly reminder that Will Venable is a career .276/.344/.455 hitter away from PETCO Park. He also posted a 114 OPS+ in 2012, which isn’t so out of line with his 106 career OPS+. He’s a great platoon guy in deeper leagues (to play on the road) and if he ever leaves San Diego, watch out.
#97 – Logan Morrison, Miami Marlins
#98 – Nolan Reimold, Baltimore Orioles
Injuries and sometimes underwhelming performances have kept these two former prospects from living up to their promise. Morrison gets a slight edge for being for years younger, but if I’m taking a chance on just one of them in 2013, it’s Reimold.
#99 – Michael Choice, Oakland Athletics
#100 – Domonic Brown, Philadelphia Phillies
One of these years, the Phillies are going to actually give Brown a full-time job and see what they have in him, right? Right? Oh, hey Delmon, didn’t see you there.
#101 – Juan Pierre, Miami Marlins
In his career, Juan Pierre has had 139 more stolen bases than strikeouts. That’s just awesome – and he’s still capable of stealing another 30-40 bags this year for a Marlins team that isn’t likely to be competitive.
#102 – Jorge Bonifacio, Kansas City Royals
#103 – Avisail Garcia, Detroit Tigers
#104 – Courtney Hawkins, Chicago White Sox
#105 – Lewis Brinson, Texas Rangers
#106 – Rajai Davis, Toronto Blue Jays
Say what you want about Davis, but he’s stolen at least 30 bases in the last four seasons. The only other two players who can say that are Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton.
#106 – Delmon Young, Philadelphia Phillies
#107 – Andy Dirks, Detroit Tigers
How often do you see it? The man vacating the LF job in Detroit is ranked just behind the one taking his place. Delmon Young is a pretty bad baseball player, but don’t forget that all of things he’s terrible at (getting on base and playing defense) are not fantasy categories. Philly will be a nice fit for him, if they can put up with his defense. Dirks is a much better all around player and can hit for both some average and power.
#108 – Brett Jackson, Chicago Cubs
#109 – Bryce Brentz, Boston Red Sox
#110 – Leonys Martin, Texas Rangers
#111 – Nate McLouth, Baltimore Orioles
McLouth was shockingly good with the Orioles after they acquired him, hitting .268/.342/.435 with 7 HR and 12 SB in only 55 games. And I don’t think it was entirely fluky. He could really go 15-15 in 2013. I can’t believe I just typed that.
#112 – Travis Snider, Pittsburgh Pirates
After coming over to the Pirates mid-season, Snider had a 23.4% K-rate in 145 plate appearances. This would have been the lowest rate of his career. Of course, he also had a .078 ISO, which also would have been the lowest of his career. He’s a worthy flier, but that’s all he is at this point.
#113 – Lucas Duda, New York Mets
#114 – Mike Carp, Seattle Mariners
Sometimes I feel like Duda and Carp should be the same player. Both 27 years old and drafted by the Mets. Both are pretty abysmal defensively in the OF and still have the potential to hit for 20-25 HR at the major league level.
#115 – Marcell Ozuna, Miami Marlins
#116 – Slade Heathcott, New York Yankees
#117 – Kyle Parker, Colorado Rockies
#118 – Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers
#119 – Gerardo Parra, Arizona Diamondbacks
#120 – Drew Stubbs, Cleveland Indians
When an outfielder built for power and speed (but kills you everywhere else) goes to a park that is much worse for power and to a manager who is less aggressive on the basepaths, his value goes down.
#121 – Justin Maxwell, Houston Astros
If you can handle the batting average drain, Maxwell could provide more pop than anyone you’re going to find this far down on the list. And by batting average drain, I’m talking Carlos Pena level drain (he owns a 32.2% career K-rate).
#122 – Justin Ruggiano, Miami Marlins
Nope, not buying it one bit. It was fun while it lasted, but that .401 BABIP and .222 ISO are not going to come walking through that door in 2013.
#123 – Seth Smith, Oakland Athletics
A nice weapon to have at your disposal in deep and single-league formats, Smith had an .805 OPS with 12 HR in 313 AB vs RHP last season.
#124 – J.D. Martinez, Houston Astros
#125 – Trayce Thompson, Chicago White Sox
#126 – Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins
#127 – Domingo Santana, Houston Astros
#128 – Darin Ruf, Philadelphia Phillies
#129 – Jonny Gomes, Boston Red Sox
#130 – Scott Hairston, Chicago Cubs
Bring on the lefty-killers. Ruf isn’t a star, but he can potentially carve out a Scott Hairston/Jonny Gomes type career (without the defensive value). But if any of these guys see extended at bats against right-handers, they’ll be over-exposed.
#131 – Eric Young Jr, Colorado Rockies
#132 – David DeJesus, Chicago Cubs
#133 – John Mayberry, Philadelphia Phillies
#134 – D.J. Davis, Toronto Blue Jays
#135 – Nomar Mazara, Texas Rangers
#136 – Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels
#137 – Chris Heisey, Cincinnati Reds
The best thing you might be able to say about these two is that I like their chances to reach the playoffs. Well, and that Vernon Wells is literally made of money.
#138 – Ryan Kalish, Boston Red Sox
If it weren’t for bad luck, Kalish would have no luck at all.
#139 – Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners
#140 – Eric Thames, Seattle Mariners
#141 – Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle Mariners
#142 – Jason Bay, Seattle Mariners
Do you think the Mariners have enough outfielders?
#143 – Brennan Boesch, Detroit Tigers
#144 – Fernando Martinez, Houston Astros
Quite a fall from grace for the 4-time Baseball America Top 100 prospect and former Mets savior. Maybe he’ll follow the lead of the prior Mets savior, Lastings Milledge, and take his talents to Japan.
#145 – Drew Vettleson, Tampa Bay Rays
#146 – Jairo Beras, Texas Rangers
#147 – Craig Gentry, Texas Rangers
#148 – Matt Szczur, Chicago Cubs
#149 – Gregor Blanco, San Francisco Giants
#150 – Jeff Franceour, Kansas City Royals
I guess you could do worse. I mean, Grady Sizemore is still available.
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