Chris Paul Trade Dynasty Implications
Unless you’re living under a rock or have a very demanding job, you already know… Chris Paul is a Rocket. (A Rockets?) A Rocket, pretty sure. The thirty-two-year-old guard opted out of the final year of his deal, which allowed the Clippers to collect salvage value on the departing superstar while CP3 retains the right to get paid the “supermax” in Houston. For house keeping, here is the entire trade:
The Rockets will send the Clippers guards Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams, forwards Sam Dekker and Montrezl Harrell, the non-guaranteed deals of DeAndre Liggins, Tim Quarterman and Ryan Kelly, and a 2018 first-round pick (protected Nos. 1-3) for Paul, league sources told The Vertical.
So how does this impact the key stakeholders? I’ll speculate.
New Rockets… er, and old Rockets, too. You know, players who we expect to play in Houston this year.
- Chris Paul – dynasty value slightly up. Cp3 heads to a Houston team that ranked third in the NBA in pace and scored the second most points in the league, which is good. He also heads to a a team that would be better suited to be called the Houston Harden’s, whose sky-high usage rate leaves little for teammates to accumulate stats. That’s bad. Overall, Paul is incrementally less interesting to me as a redraft asset, however for dynasty this moves should help keep him healthier and on the court more often, both this year and into the future. The early word is that CP3 will be an off-ball guard, which means he’ll get to show off his spot-up shooting chops (he ranked in the 77th percentile last year in accuracy) and avoid the more physically demanding role of being a team’s primary ball handler.
- James Harden – dynasty value neutral. As good as he is, surely Harden will cede some touches to the Paul, perhaps the GOAT at his position. However, the incremental usage decline is a double edged sword if you’re a long-term Harden owner, as you want him healthy indefinitely. Fewer touches means it’s more likely that Harden can retain his excellent durability tag.
- DeAndre Jordan – dynasty value slightly down. There’s tremendous uncertainty about what this roster will look like when the season starts, including whether Jordan will even be a Clipper by then, but Jordan’s value is almost certainly going to go down. He’s still an elite real life player, ranking among the game’s best by ESPN RPM and anchoring the defense of yet another excellent (but not good enough) Clipper teams. However, without the ultra-efficient CP3 throwing him lobs, Jordan figures to see a marginal drop off his his field goal efficiency. Don’t overreact, because most of his (limited) scoring production comes from broken plays and offensive rebounds. He’s still a high-end punt free throw dynasty asset.
- Lou Williams – dynasty value neutral. Williams AND Jamal Crawford? There can be only one! Williams leaves the fast-paced Rockets team for which he was perfectly suited, but he becomes a candidate to start alongside the defensive minded Beverley. He makes for a nice trade chip in LA should they choose to rebuild, so I wouldn’t unpack my bags yet, Lou.
- Patrick Beverley – dynasty value down. Bevereley was already a starter in Houston, where he was an underrated steals and threes specialist. In LA, he’ll either be the same player with fewer opportunities, or thrust into a high usage role that would make him a field goal percentage assassin.
- Sam Dekker and Montrezl Herrell – dynasty value up. Finally some winners! Dekker was buried behind Ariza in Houston despite showing some promise as the three and D (with slashing ability) type late in the regular seasons. He has a chance to blossom into a useful fantasy role player and a real life starting small forward in LA. Meanwhile, Herrell might be buried behind Blake Griffin in LA, but many are speculating that this trade signals the end of Kia’s spokesperson’s run at Staples Center. He was miscast in d’Antoni’s system (and in the modern NBA, frankly), despite flashing with some productive stretches last year.