Planting Seeds: QB’s – Uncovering Future Starters
If you’re in a deeper two quarterback or superflex league, you’ve probably found that filling the quarterback position with a player you’re reasonably confident will be starter can sometimes be a challenge week to week. After all, there are only 32 starters in the league.
To that end, this post is focused on the “seeds” I am planting in hopes of unearthing a future starting quarterback cheaply. These players may never return star value, but finding starters before they emerge as starters helps us stay out of the expensive quarterback market and focus on beefing up the rest of our lineup.
Here are a few of my favorites quarterback seeds that I am planting in 2016, including their most recent ADP for two QB startup leagues. Absent are any Jets or Saints quarterbacks; I find it unlikely that Fitzpatrick or Brees’ long-term replacement is on the NFL roster today. If I absolutely had to invest a roster spot (maybe your league is obscenely deep), I’d choose Grayson (Saints) and then Petty (Jets).
- Mike Glennon (190) – My favorite quarterback spec play is Mike Glennon, because I think he has the best long-term upside and short-term opportunity to play. A free agent after this season, Glennon has the tools, production, size and good-enough draft pedigree that should make us reasonably confident that he’ll get a chance to start next year (or sooner with an injury to Winston). As Kirk Cousins showed last year, do not mistake mediocre for bad. Plenty of scouts and GMs have reportedly said off the record that they believe Glennon is an average starting quarterback.
- Brett Hundley (223) – If you’re a rebuilding team in a 2QB format, go get this guy. A prototypical YOLO quarterback stuck behind a Hall of Fame player, Hundley will require serious patience as he won’t be a free agent for three years and we know only an injury will afford him an opportunity in Green Bay. Hundley has exciting fantasy-friendly skills, has earned the confidence of his coaches and has flashed monster production in preseason.
- Dak Prescott (185) – Another YOLO QB prospect, the risk with Prescott is that Romo holds up and starts another four years. On the other hand, Prescott appears to be the backup today, which makes him both the short-term handcuff to Romo as well as the potential long-term replacement. If you’re a Romo owner, he’s a must-have QB handcuff because we’re talking both present utility and some future value, too.
- Jimmy Garoppolo (161) – Garoppolo is not Tom Brady’s heir apparent no matter how well he plays in September. Donald Trump’s friend, Tom will not be retiring any time soon. Garroppolo’s placement here is due to his relatively high odds of starting elsewhere when his contract mercifully ends after the 2017 season. Former Patriot backups tend to get opportunities to start elsewhere, Jimmy was a second round pick and he has always looked good enough. The most expensive way to acquire quarterbacks in QB-premium leagues tends to be via the rookie draft when owners’ expectations tend to run wild. Instead, target Garoppolo after Brady returns from suspension.
- Cody Kessler (203) I don’t love Kessler as a prospect, but Josh McCown is a stop-gap and forgive me if I am not a believer in RG3’s ability to solidify himself as the Browns’ QB of the future, (though some highly respected rankers were impressed by his preseason performance). In other words, I like his opportunity to play enough to find out if I’m wrong about him as a prospect.
- Jeff Driskel (236) – Yet another YOLO QB prospect, Driskel didn’t run as much as Prescott did in college, but the 49ers beat writers aren’t sold on Kaepernick nor Gabbert, which means Driskel could get a look as soon as this year. If you believe all prospects are just guys with an uncertain range of outcomes and probabilities of hitting those outcomes as I do, then we ought to consider using a roster spot to find out if Driskel can stick at quarterback.
- Trevor Siemian (255) – Some people believe Siemian looks better than Paxton Lynch, which isn’t to say that he is the Broncos’ long-term starter, but it’s looking increasingly more plausible that he could start week one, which will make him a prime trade candidate if and when Lynch eventually takes over in Denver. If the price is free or nearly free, take a flier and ditch him if he doesn’t get a shot early.
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