The Top 250 Dynasty Football Rankings 2.0 – Preseason Refresh
Plenty of talented fantasy writers advocate that fantasy football players stop paying attention to football between August 1st and September 1st. The thinking is that the extra information in tiny samples is more likely to cause us to overreact than improve our decision making.
Me? I always prefer more information. While I can’t say that I have ignored preseason, most of these changes reflect new information I’ve gleaned from being a sponge (philosophy #3) this past week and researching players further (mostly based on 2015 collegiate/NFL production, not preseason).
Where small sample preseason adjustments have been a factor in these rankings tends to be wisdom from some of the most accurate redraft rankers in fantasy history. For example, when 4for4’s John Paulsen says he will bump up RG3 in his newest projections and that he looks like the old RG3, I believe an incremental adjustment is appropriate.
#Dynasty250 2.0… enjoy.
*8/24 edit – a reminder these are geared towards 2QB/superflex, so fade quarterbacks for single QB leagues.
Rank | Change | NAME | Position | Comments |
1 | 0 | Odell Beckham | WR | Best combination of youth and proven production, even if they have come with some health issues. |
2 | 0 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | |
3 | 0 | Russell Wilson | QB | The volume ticked up along with his efficiency as a thrower last year. Only benefitted from one rushing TD. |
4 | 0 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Rodgers attempted a career-high number of passes last year. If he can do that with efficiency anywhere close to where it was pre-2015…watch out. |
5 | 0 | Andrew Luck | QB | Recency bias is strong. There were always more warts than was obvious even before last year, but I’m still buying with confidence. |
6 | 0 | Allen Robinson | WR | |
7 | 0 | Cam Newton | QB | Wouldn’t quibble with anyone that put him 1.1, which is why I traded down from the top of my most recent startup. |
8 | 0 | Julio Jones | WR | |
9 | 0 | Mike Evans | WR | |
10 | 0 | Antonio Brown | WR | If your time is now, go get him. |
11 | 0 | Sammy Watkins | WR | |
12 | 0 | Amari Cooper | WR | |
13 | 0 | Rob Gronkowski | TE | |
14 | 0 | Keenan Allen | WR | Fantasy’s least appreciated superstar had a fluke injury cut short his dominant ’15. |
15 | 0 | Brandin Cooks | WR | Still younger than many rookies. |
16 | 0 | A.J. Green | WR | |
17 | 0 | Dez Bryant | WR | |
18 | 0 | Demaryius Thomas | WR | |
19 | 0 | Alshon Jeffery | WR | |
20 | 0 | Marcus Mariota | QB | Last year was a good first step, but bust risk remains. |
21 | 0 | Jameis Winston | QB | RT: Last year was a good first step, but bust risk remains. |
22 | 0 | Blake Bortles | QB | Garbage time king has more warts than volume stats imply, but obviously I still like the overall package. |
23 | 0 | Derek Carr | QB | Probably a better real life QB than Bortles, but fewer weapons and doesn’t have the same wheels |
24 | 0 | Todd Gurley | RB | If anyone thinks there’s such thing as a good long-term running back investment, go sell them Gurley. |
25 | 0 | Ezekiel Elliott | RB | See Gurley comment. |
26 | 0 | DeVante Parker | WR | |
27 | 0 | Donte Moncrief | WR | Another impossibly young third-year wideout. |
28 | 0 | Jarvis Landry | WR | Can fade in standard (non-PPR). |
29 | 1 | Ben Roethlisberger | QB | |
30 | 1 | Tom Brady | QB | Obviously I don’t think he’s retiring any time soon. |
31 | -2 | Corey Coleman | WR | Aggressive ranking due to favorable opportunity; not necessarily head and shoulders better as a prospect than other top WR’s |
32 | 0 | Kevin White | WR | |
33 | 0 | Jordan Matthews | WR | |
34 | 0 | Le’Veon Bell | RB | Damaged goods; trust me I get the tantalizing appeal, but I am staying away. |
35 | 0 | T.Y. Hilton | WR | |
36 | 0 | Randall Cobb | WR | Should benefit from Jordy’s return to the lineup. |
37 | 2 | David Johnson | RB | |
38 | 2 | Lamar Miller | RB | |
39 | 2 | Devonta Freeman | RB | |
40 | -2 | Josh Doctson | WR | Getting frustrating Kevin White / Parker health vibes, but I really like the prospect and the WR ahead of him are old. |
41 | 2 | Philip Rivers | QB | |
42 | 0 | Allen Hurns | WR | |
43 | 1 | Matt Ryan | QB | Boring and reliable. |
44 | 1 | Andy Dalton | QB | Boring and reliable. |
45 | -8 | Laquon Treadwell | WR | I don’t care about the 40 time, but increasingly weary of his pedigree as compared to cheaper options like Tyler Boyd. |
46 | 0 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | |
47 | 0 | Sterling Shepard | WR | As with Coleman, aggressive ranking in part due to opportunity; if you’re rebuilding focus on cheaper options like Carroo or Boyd. |
48 | 0 | Jordan Reed | TE | |
49 | 0 | Doug Baldwin | WR | I am more on the “buying it” side of the fluke/real coin based on 2015 2nd half. |
50 | 0 | Stefon Diggs | WR | Diggs did not come out of nowhere; he was a highly-touted recruit out of high school. |
51 | 0 | Jeremy Maclin | WR | |
52 | 0 | John Brown | WR | |
53 | 0 | Drew Brees | QB | I don’t know that the size/arm strength is there to help Brees decline gracefully and remain in the lineup beyond this year. |
54 | 0 | Kirk Cousins | QB | |
55 | 0 | Teddy Bridgewater | QB | I think he can be more than a game manager, especially when AP finally retires or moves on. At minimum I think you’ll get to fill the QB slot for many years. |
56 | 0 | Matthew Stafford | QB | |
57 | 0 | Brandon Marshall | WR | I don’t know how much time is left, but I still expect WR1 numbers this year. Good enough for me. |
58 | 0 | Michael Floyd | WR | |
59 | 0 | Doug Martin | RB | |
60 | 0 | Jamaal Charles | RB | Wake me up when he isn’t dominant on the field. |
61 | 0 | Jordy Nelson | WR | ADP prices him as though he will automatically bounce back to register multiple WR1 seasons. |
62 | 0 | Carlos Hyde | RB | |
63 | 0 | Mark Ingram | RB | Looking increasingly likely that he could maintain a pass-catching role. |
64 | 0 | Jared Goff | QB | Bust risk is real, but even if he’s only a competent starting QB that means you can avoid an expensive QB market. |
65 | 0 | Eli Manning | QB | Durable, 100% job security and a top 10 redraft QB for me, too. |
66 | 0 | Zach Ertz | TE | My number two tight end has improved in every year; touchdowns are noisy and I think they’ll come just by law of averages. |
67 | 1 | Carson Palmer | QB | |
68 | 1 | Kelvin Benjamin | WR | Based on ADP you will never get him anywhere close to here. Between mixed reports, poor efficiency year one and the risk of another ACL injury, I am avoiding. |
69 | 1 | Travis Kelce | TE | |
70 | 1 | Tyler Eifert | TE | |
71 | 15 | Tyler Boyd | WR | Really impressive college production and draft position makes him arguably the most likely rookie WR to succeed. |
72 | 2 | Tyler Lockett | WR | |
73 | 14 | Will Fuller | WR | Draft pedigree explains most of WR’s success, historically. Fuller was a first round pick, which bodes well for his chances. |
74 | 1 | Greg Olsen | TE | Another great target if your time is now. |
75 | -2 | Adrian Peterson | RB | If you’re going to pay up for him, then don’t half ass it… load up on win-now pieces instead of hedging. |
76 | 2 | Duke Johnson | RB | Perfect role and skill set to be the ideal modern fantasy running back, but the price has become that of a workhorse. |
77 | -5 | T.J. Yeldon | RB | Love those talented non “lead” back that come at a discount. |
78 | -11 | Devin Funchess | WR | If you’re in position to win, look to swap for one of the veteran receivers ranked just behind him. |
79 | 0 | Eric Decker | WR | Really nice player for a two year run at a championship. |
80 | 0 | Golden Tate | WR | |
81 | 0 | Julian Edelman | WR | |
82 | 0 | Giovani Bernard | RB | |
83 | 1 | LeSean McCoy | RB | |
84 | -7 | Michael Thomas | WR | Preseason week 2 dud doesn’t phase me, but I’m rethinking preference over Boyd and Fuller after additional research |
85 | 7 | Josh Gordon | WR | Too many questions to take higher, too much upside to rank lower. Presumably someone else will bite for more. |
86 | -3 | Larry Fitzgerald | WR | YPA is low, but he gets peppered with targets. Fading a tad due to injury because value is so tied up in him producing now. |
87 | 4 | Willie Snead | WR | |
88 | 2 | Marvin Jones | WR | Expecting a career year given opportunity, health and red zone chops. |
89 | 32 | Michael Crabtree | WR | Was just too low on him considering nice mix of age/proven production. |
90 | -14 | Emmanuel Sanders | WR | |
91 | 2 | Tyrod Taylor | QB | I’m avoiding on the grounds that we don’t know that the NFL believes he’s a starter or a high-end backup. The contract extension means almost nothing given cut risk. Plenty of upside, though. |
92 | 2 | Alex Smith | QB | Good chance he starts more games in the rest of his career than Wentz or Lynch, given bust rate. Don’t confuse average with bad. |
93 | 2 | Carson Wentz | QB | |
94 | 2 | Paxton Lynch | QB | Cecil Lammey says he has the “it” factor. #Analysis. But seriously, Cecil is a legend and knows Broncos beat well. |
95 | 2 | Joe Flacco | QB | Bounce back is coming. Maintains solid job security. |
96 | 2 | Brock Osweiler | QB | |
97 | 2 | Tony Romo | QB | Pair with Prescott. |
98 | -10 | Leonte Carroo | WR | A significant value play based on rookie draft ADP; excellent rebuilder’s buy due to poor opportunity. |
99 | -14 | Eddie Lacy | RB | Only lack of competition stops me from sliding into the 100’s. |
100 | 0 | Breshad Perriman | WR | A boom/bust prospect, Perriman has rare speed/size combination but can’t stay healthy. |
101 | -12 | C.J. Anderson | RB | |
102 | 0 | Phillip Dorsett | WR | |
103 | 0 | Thomas Rawls | RB | Too many variables that can prevent him from yielding significant value. |
104 | 1 | Melvin Gordon | RB | |
105 | 1 | Jerick McKinnon | RB | Maybe it doesn’t happen this year, but McKinnon has RB1 skills if AP goes down or retires. He’ll be a free agent in 2018. |
106 | 2 | Tavon Austin | WR | |
107 | 2 | Charles Sims | RB | RB1 skills with the opportunity, but will it come? |
108 | 2 | Latavius Murray | RB | Sell, sell, sell. |
109 | 6 | Tajae Sharpe | WR | Statheads’ favorite sleeper has excelled on the field. |
110 | 7 | Derrick Henry | RB | Not my kind of running back prospect, but looks good so far. |
111 | -10 | Martavis Bryant | WR | Perfect gamble for a punt 2016 strategy; Gordon’s reinstatement is good news for Bryant owners. |
112 | 2 | Ameer Abdullah | RB | |
113 | -2 | Kenneth Dixon | RB | Present depth chart and Kevin Cole’s research has me backing off incrementally |
114 | 4 | DeMarco Murray | RB | |
115 | -2 | Nelson Agholor | WR | Excellent buy-low target, but the Eagles probably reached for him. |
116 | -12 | Dorial Green-Beckham | WR | It’s a red flag when a team trades away their second-round pick from the year prior, but still pedigree to be a starter. |
117 | 2 | Eric Ebron | TE | |
118 | 2 | Coby Fleener | TE | |
119 | 3 | Devontae Booker | RB | |
120 | 3 | Matt Forte | RB | |
121 | 3 | Jeremy Hill | RB | |
122 | 4 | Ryan Mathews | RB | |
123 | -7 | Rishard Matthews | WR | Hat tip to WaPo’s Michael Salfino for alerting me to his stand out YPA last year. |
124 | 26 | Robert Griffin III | QB | 4for4’s John Paulsen really liked what he saw in preseason and at minimum, he’s way better at spotting redraft value than I am, so let’s pay attention. |
125 | 13 | DeSean Jackson | WR | Best ball stud. |
126 | 1 | Torrey Smith | WR | Best ball stud with a lesser QB that may not throw down field. |
127 | 1 | Ladarius Green | TE | One of the least fun things to do in fantasy is speculate on vague health issues. I’m avoiding until there’s clarity. |
128 | 1 | Braxton Miller | WR | Something of a mystery man with limited college reps, which makes me skeptical of poor forecasts I’ve seen. |
129 | 2 | Jeremy Langford | RB | Expensive JAG (“just a guy” for noobies) was one of the least efficient running backs in the NFL last year. |
130 | 0 | Matt Jones | RB | See Langford, Jeremy |
131 | 1 | Theo Riddick | RB | An elite pass-catcher, but enough buzz about Abdullah taking some of those reps to move Riddick down. It’s true that there was a perfect storm last year in Detroit in Riddick’s favor. |
132 | 1 | C.J. Prosise | RB | A nice stash if you’re rebuilding. Tough to guess what happens in 2016 between health and depth chart. |
133 | 1 | Delanie Walker | TE | |
134 | 1 | Gary Barnidge | TE | |
135 | 1 | Markus Wheaton | WR | |
136 | 1 | Kamar Aiken | WR | ADP has caught up with the fact that he was actually pretty good and opportunity is still there. |
137 | 2 | Jay Ajayi | RB | |
138 | 2 | Arian Foster | RB | I expect nothing next season (2017), but I’ll ride him into the sunset because he is a complete player even with diminished athleticism. |
139 | -14 | Jamison Crowder | WR | |
140 | 1 | Tevin Coleman | RB | |
141 | 1 | DeAndre Washington | RB | Awfully good chance he’s better than Latavius, IMO. |
142 | 1 | Jonathan Stewart | RB | |
143 | 1 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | |
144 | 5 | Jay Cutler | QB | Concerned about his long term job security with the Bears. |
145 | 1 | Danny Woodhead | RB | |
146 | 8 | Julius Thomas | TE | |
147 | 9 | Dwayne Allen | TE | |
148 | 18 | Vincent Jackson | WR | Still some juice left. |
149 | -37 | Jaelen Strong | WR | If he’s really fourth on the depth chart, then he deserves to move back further. |
150 | -3 | Isaiah Crowell | RB | |
151 | 0 | Frank Gore | RB | If you’re not confident in your team’s ability to win now you can steer clear. |
152 | 0 | Sam Bradford | QB | I think he is more likely than not to start elsewhere in 2017. |
153 | 0 | Pharoh Cooper | WR | In the Tajae Sharpe mold as someone with excellent age-adjusted production in college. |
154 | 4 | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | I think he’ll start elsewhere when he’s a FA in 2018. |
155 | 0 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | TE | If you’re a risk taker Seferian-Jenkins still has a lot of talent, just lots of warts on and off the field now. |
156 | 1 | Clive Walford | TE | |
157 | 2 | Malcolm Mitchell | WR | Could shoot up these rankings in a year; nice cheap target for rebuilders. |
158 | 2 | Travis Benjamin | WR | |
159 | -11 | Hunter Henry | TE | |
160 | -15 | Chris Ivory | RB | |
161 | 1 | Davante Adams | WR | I hope he was hurt last year, as poorly as he played. Was probably always a bit overrated as a prospect, regardless. |
162 | 1 | Kenyan Drake | RB | The cheapest back in Miami, he’s also my favorite based on ADP. Foster and Ajayi aren’t exactly pillars of health. |
163 | 2 | Keith Marshall | RB | I don’t like Matt Jones and Marshall is my preferred pick to beat him out, even if at present his place on depth chart today says otherwise. |
164 | 23 | Javorius Allen | RB | |
165 | 3 | Tyler Ervin | RB | A talented prospect made cheap by present depth chart blues, Ervin is a nice rookie draft target with a decent chance to return RB2 numbers within the new few years. |
166 | 3 | Jimmy Graham | TE | |
167 | 3 | Martellus Bennett | TE | |
168 | 4 | Antonio Gates | TE | |
169 | 4 | Shane Vereen | RB | |
170 | 4 | Paul Perkins | RB | Caught the ball well in college, but he’ll be behind Vereen this year and I don’t see the long-term probability to merit taking any higher. |
171 | 4 | Rashad Jennings | RB | Assuming I’ve developed a strong WR core, I like to go to battle with multiple Rashad Jennings-types at the start of the year and hope my bench backs turn in to starters. |
172 | 68 | James White | RB | May not have Lewis’ elusiveness or versatility, but as a pass catcher he showed similar efficiency. |
173 | 18 | Chris Conley | WR | Another boom/bust guy; looks to be the starter opposite Maclin. |
174 | 3 | Tyler Higbee | TE | |
175 | 3 | Maxx Williams | TE | The depth chart won’t forever remain this crowded. |
176 | 4 | Zach Miller | TE | |
177 | 41 | Christine Michael | RB | Maybe this is for real, but how much of this hype is due to short-term injuries to his competition? I’m selling to anyone caught up in said hype, but have to take notice. |
178 | 16 | Rashard Higgins | WR | There are worse dart throws if you’re speculating on a future starter for cheap. |
179 | 4 | Mike Glennon | QB | I think he’ll start somewhere next year and be a cheap good-enough QB. Great pickup for a rebuilding team. |
180 | 4 | Sammie Coates | WR | If he does in fact lose his starting job, it’ll be a feather in the cap of collegiate production vs. combine metrics. He did not produce in college. |
181 | 4 | Bilal Powell | RB | If you build your team correctly, you can win with Bilal Powell in your starting lineup. |
182 | 47 | Mike Wallace | WR | Like him most for best ball and if your time is now, you could justify an even higher rank. |
183 | -7 | Jordan Howard | RB | Sketchy fantasy profile, but the Bears have more quantity than quality in their backfield. |
184 | 2 | Justin Forsett | RB | |
185 | -4 | Jace Amaro | TE | Opportunity knocks for this 2014 2nd round pick. |
186 | 2 | Darren Sproles | RB | Give us one more year, Sproles. One more… |
187 | 2 | Steve Smith | WR | |
188 | 2 | Terrance Williams | WR | Really missed Romo last year. Cowboys have yet to develop a significant receiving threat opposite Dez. |
189 | -10 | Austin Hooper | TE | |
190 | 2 | Pierre Garcon | WR | |
191 | 4 | Cameron Artis-Payne | RB | A rare clear-cut backup RB, just wish he had more pass catching chops (and Cam at the goal line doesn’t help). |
192 | 7 | Shaun Draughn | RB | |
193 | 7 | Charcandrick West | RB | |
194 | -30 | Chris Hogan | WR | |
195 | 1 | Jonathan Williams | RB | If McCoy goes down, he’s my pick over guys nominally ahead of him on the depth chart today. |
196 | 1 | Justin Hardy | WR | I’m watching him closely as no one has emerged to replace Roddy White and Sanu is so meh. |
197 | 1 | DeAngelo Williams | RB | |
198 | 9 | Alex Collins | RB | Monitor Seahawks’ situation closely as their individual values are fluid. |
199 | 11 | Dak Prescott | QB | Pair with Romo for strategic value. |
200 | -18 | Josh Ferguson | RB | Rough preseason has him looking more like the the next failed Gore replacement, but don’t give up yet. |
201 | -30 | Wendell Smallwood | RB | Uphill battle with uncertain place on the depth chart, but I like the pass-catching profile still long-term. |
202 | 4 | Blaine Gabbert | QB | |
203 | -1 | Jason Witten | TE | |
204 | -1 | Spencer Ware | RB | |
205 | -1 | Kendall Wright | WR | A forgotten man, but with DGB out of the fold could be back in the mix as the slot stud he used to be. |
206 | 2 | Vance McDonald | TE | |
207 | 2 | Will Tye | TE | Some risk the Giants start Donnell, but Eli throws to his tight ends in the red zone and I like Tye better. |
208 | 3 | Bruce Ellington | WR | |
209 | 21 | Chris Thompson | RB | |
210 | 2 | Terrelle Pryor | WR | If it’s not a thing (and it probably is not), you can ditch him. |
211 | NR | Charles Johnson | WR | |
212 | NR | Kenjon Barner | WR | Second straight impressive preseason looks to have put him in position to be Eagles’ No. 2 RB. |
213 | 18 | Marqise Lee | WR | I’d love to own him and take a look weeks 1-4. Health has been the problem. High end prospect pedigree, which should still matter to you even now. |
214 | NR | Jared Cook | TE | Fine, Packers’ starting TE deserves to be on this list. |
215 | -14 | Mohamed Sanu | WR | Hate the talent, but undeniably sweet opportunity. If you’re a contender, you could do worse. |
216 | NR | Virgil Green | TE | |
217 | -4 | Darren McFadden | RB | |
218 | -3 | Kyle Rudolph | TE | |
219 | 15 | Charles Clay | TE | |
220 | -4 | Richard Rodgers | TE | I think he’s better than Jared Cook. That doesn’t mean he will start, though. |
221 | -4 | Zach Zenner | RB | |
222 | -3 | Brett Hundley | QB | He will test your patience, but upside is immense. |
223 | 1 | Ted Ginn Jr. | WR | Another good best ball player due to his “home run” hitting pedigree as a deep threat. |
224 | -4 | Daniel Lasco | RB | Not much talent in the backfield after Ingram. |
225 | -4 | James Starks | RB | |
226 | -4 | Jordan Cameron | TE | |
227 | -4 | J.J. Nelson | WR | Speed! Wheeeee!!! |
228 | -3 | LeGarrette Blount | RB | |
229 | 18 | Trevor Siemian | QB | Smart folks at ProFootballFocus thought he looked better than Sanchez and Lynch. Seems to have pulled ahead of Sanchez, fwiw. |
230 | -123 | Dion Lewis | RB | Yes he’s a running back with serious health concerns, but he makes a pretty decent buy low for a rebuilding team. |
231 | 1 | Paul Richardson | WR | This 2014 2nd round pick is finally healthy. Once a pretty good prospect. |
232 | 9 | Robert Woods | WR | |
233 | NR | Jermaine Kearse | WR | |
234 | NR | Tyrell Williams | WR | |
235 | -8 | Alfred Morris | RB | |
236 | -8 | Andre Ellington | RB | |
237 | -70 | Mike Thomas | WR | (Rams.) Another highly productive collegiate wide receiver, but not doing the things this summer that you want to see from a late draft pick to surprise. |
238 | -77 | Karlos Williams | RB | Could parachute in to a nice situation or balloon (D+ weight gain joke) out of the league. |
239 | -4 | Jeff Janis | WR | Given the variance in opinions, at this price, you ain’t getting Janis. |
240 | -4 | Cardale Jones | QB | A viable handcuff to Taylor in case the Bills decide to part ways next offseason (and due to injury risk). |
241 | -4 | Cody Kessler | QB | Not in love with the prospect, but no other plausible long term QB on the roster. |
242 | NR | Kenny Stills | WR | |
243 | NR | Lance Dunbar | RB | Elite PPR back is off the PUP. |
244 | -51 | Cody Latimer | WR | Aggressive ranking, but there’s reasons to believe starting with the total lack of receiving talent in Denver after Sanders and Thomas. |
245 | -2 | Chris Johnson | RB | Acceptable #ZeroRB for one more year. |
246 | -2 | Devin Smith | WR | 2015 2nd round pick is worth a stash at the end of your roster in deep leagues. |
247 | -33 | Ricardo Louis | WR | |
248 | -10 | Colin Kaepernick | QB | Enough fantasy appeal with his legs to continue to monitor. |
249 | NR | Rob Kelley | RB | Depth charts are fluid now, but considering Matt Jones is meh and Keith Marshall hasn’t wowed, let’s monitor Kelley who could open up as the No. 2 back. |
250 | NR | Jesse James | TE |
8 Comments
[…] 2016 Fantasy Football Rankings: TheDynastyGuru.com updates their rankings of the top 250 overall players for keeper/dynasty leagues. […]
There’s a strategic piece here that eludes me. I get that QB, TE, and WR have 7-12 year career peaks where RBs have 2-3 year career peaks. But doesn’t the nature of lineup submission mitigate the extent to which you downgrade RBs? If a lineup allowed for 5 starting WR and zero RB, of course they’d be valued that way. But depending on the league, I’m starting 1-3 RBs every week, and likely no more than 4 WR/TEs. At some point you get diminishing returns on valuing a position at which you can only start so many guys, right? I assume these rankings are not for a rebuilding team only. So when I’ve collected four WR who have more value than any RB on the list, how do I think about trade value to be able to correctly diversify my assets to full a lineup?
Thanks for the interesting question, Jason.
You can win dynasty leagues without ever paying for a high-end running back provided that you’re building your team correctly.
My rankings are developed to help owners have sustained runs of high-probability contention, which means emphasizing youth, longevity and (relative to RBs) low variance positions.
With that in mind, the goal is to build your team to have no fewer than three, but hopefully four or more dominant wide receivers. At minimum, owners can start three WR with the FLEX spot, but 3x starting WR leagues and/or a second flex spots are increasingly common. In shallower leagues, a fourth dominant WR may seem like a luxury, but between bye weeks and injuries the utility is still there of having a stud WR even if he sits on your bench sometimes. Those four wide receivers are your foundation that sets you up to be among the best teams every single year, which is all you can ask for in a high-variance endeavor like fantasy football.
If you get to a point when you have five or six dominant WR’s, then make sure you have stud quarterbacks and tight ends before you finally turn your attention to running backs. That said, I’m a #ZeroRB disciple, which means that I am very uncomfortable paying retail for a nominal starting running back ever.
I prefer to utilize a boring, cheap Rashad Jennings or Franke Gore to hold down the fort until one of my lottery ticket backup running backs (this year think McKinnon, Sims, Booker, Dixon, Prosise) turn into a starter. To the extent that you’re worried about “diversifying assets” I’d recommend making sure you have a collection of plug and play boring RB’s to bide time for the pre-breakout, higher-upside #ZeroRBs waiting for their chances on your bench. If you chase whoever is the healthy starting running back at the time, I think you’ll be very disappointed.
/EndRussianNovel
There is also the concept of discounting future value due to uncertainly (the league ending, rules changes, etc.) — which I don’t think your rankings fully account for (?).
Also, what’s the theory behind valuing guys like Matt Ryan in the top 50? He’s totally replaceable and has limited upside — present or future. Thanks.
While I am something of an agist, I do discount uncertainty associated with bust risk for prospects, high injury risk players, etc. However, it’s true that this list assumes your league will not fold. If that’s the case, you should contact me about joining a more serious league where that is not in doubt 🙂
Regarding Matty Ice (and others like him, such as Dalton) –
1. These are focused on 2Qb/superflex leagues in which they are not easily replaceable. I have re-added that note to the intro, (which was omitted as compared to last week’s rankings). If you play single QB dynasty then you should fade the QB rankings (and then ask your commish to change the format to 2qb, because it’s the way of the present/future.
2. for redraft leagues I want upside. For dynasty leagues, I want to plug a hole with someone that I can count on to occupy the position indefinitely. Ryan is ultra durable and has tremendous long term job security. Once you lock in quarterbacks like Matt Ryan, you’re free to swing for the fences at other positions.
My favorite projections for redraft have Qb’s 10-27 separated by 27 points, so if they’re all relatively similar, give me the one that is most reliable year over year.
Ah. Did not realize it’s for 2-QB leagues. That may be the way of the future, but not all that common now.
[…] *8/25 Edit. Find the 8/23 update here. […]
[…] It’s no secret that the analytically inclined are down on Matt Jones, who I called a JAG (just a guy) in my #Dynasty250. […]