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The Top 250 Dynasty Football Rankings 2.0 – Preseason Refresh

Plenty of talented fantasy writers advocate that fantasy football players stop paying attention to football between August 1st and September 1st. The thinking is that the extra information in tiny samples is more likely to cause us to overreact than improve our decision making.

Me? I always prefer more information. While I can’t say that I have ignored preseason, most of these changes reflect new information I’ve gleaned from being a sponge (philosophy #3) this past week and researching players further (mostly based on 2015 collegiate/NFL production, not preseason).

Where small sample preseason adjustments have been a factor in these rankings tends to be wisdom from some of the most accurate redraft rankers in fantasy history. For example, when 4for4’s John Paulsen says he will bump up RG3 in his newest projections and that he looks like the old RG3, I believe an incremental adjustment is appropriate.

#Dynasty250 2.0… enjoy.

*8/24 edit – a reminder these are geared towards 2QB/superflex, so fade quarterbacks for single QB leagues.

Rank Change NAME Position Comments
1 0 Odell Beckham WR Best combination of youth and proven production, even if they have come with some health issues.
2 0 DeAndre Hopkins WR
3 0 Russell Wilson QB The volume ticked up along with his efficiency as a thrower last year. Only benefitted from one rushing TD.
4 0 Aaron Rodgers QB Rodgers attempted a career-high number of passes last year. If he can do that with efficiency anywhere close to where it was pre-2015…watch out.
5 0 Andrew Luck QB Recency bias is strong. There were always more warts than was obvious even before last year, but I’m still buying with confidence.
6 0 Allen Robinson WR
7 0 Cam Newton QB Wouldn’t quibble with anyone that put him 1.1, which is why I traded down from the top of my most recent startup.
8 0 Julio Jones WR
9 0 Mike Evans WR
10 0 Antonio Brown WR If your time is now, go get him.
11 0 Sammy Watkins WR
12 0 Amari Cooper WR
13 0 Rob Gronkowski TE
14 0 Keenan Allen WR Fantasy’s least appreciated superstar had a fluke injury cut short his dominant ’15.
15 0 Brandin Cooks WR Still younger than many rookies.
16 0 A.J. Green WR
17 0 Dez Bryant WR
18 0 Demaryius Thomas WR
19 0 Alshon Jeffery WR
20 0 Marcus Mariota QB Last year was a good first step, but bust risk remains.
21 0 Jameis Winston QB RT: Last year was a good first step, but bust risk remains.
22 0 Blake Bortles QB Garbage time king has more warts than volume stats imply, but obviously I still like the overall package.
23 0 Derek Carr QB Probably a better real life QB than Bortles, but fewer weapons and doesn’t have the same wheels
24 0 Todd Gurley RB If anyone thinks there’s such thing as a good long-term running back investment, go sell them Gurley.
25 0 Ezekiel Elliott RB See Gurley comment.
26 0 DeVante Parker WR
27 0 Donte Moncrief WR Another impossibly young third-year wideout.
28 0 Jarvis Landry WR Can fade in standard (non-PPR).
29 1 Ben Roethlisberger QB
30 1 Tom Brady QB Obviously I don’t think he’s retiring any time soon.
31 -2 Corey Coleman WR Aggressive ranking due to favorable opportunity; not necessarily head and shoulders better as a prospect than other top WR’s
32 0 Kevin White WR
33 0 Jordan Matthews WR
34 0 Le’Veon Bell RB Damaged goods; trust me I get the tantalizing appeal, but I am staying away.
35 0 T.Y. Hilton WR
36 0 Randall Cobb WR Should benefit from Jordy’s return to the lineup.
37 2 David Johnson RB
38 2 Lamar Miller RB
39 2 Devonta Freeman RB
40 -2 Josh Doctson WR Getting frustrating Kevin White / Parker health vibes, but I really like the prospect and the WR ahead of him are old.
41 2 Philip Rivers QB
42 0 Allen Hurns WR
43 1 Matt Ryan QB Boring and reliable.
44 1 Andy Dalton QB Boring and reliable.
45 -8 Laquon Treadwell WR I don’t care about the 40 time, but increasingly weary of his pedigree as compared to cheaper options like Tyler Boyd.
46 0 Ryan Tannehill QB
47 0 Sterling Shepard WR As with Coleman, aggressive ranking in part due to opportunity; if you’re rebuilding focus on cheaper options like Carroo or Boyd.
48 0 Jordan Reed TE
49 0 Doug Baldwin WR I am more on the “buying it” side of the fluke/real coin based on 2015 2nd half.
50 0 Stefon Diggs WR Diggs did not come out of nowhere; he was a highly-touted recruit out of high school.
51 0 Jeremy Maclin WR
52 0 John Brown WR
53 0 Drew Brees QB I don’t know that the size/arm strength is there to help Brees decline gracefully and remain in the lineup beyond this year.
54 0 Kirk Cousins QB
55 0 Teddy Bridgewater QB I think he can be more than a game manager, especially when AP finally retires or moves on. At minimum I think you’ll get to fill the QB slot for many years.
56 0 Matthew Stafford QB
57 0 Brandon Marshall WR I don’t know how much time is left, but I still expect WR1 numbers this year. Good enough for me.
58 0 Michael Floyd WR
59 0 Doug Martin RB
60 0 Jamaal Charles RB Wake me up when he isn’t dominant on the field.
61 0 Jordy Nelson WR ADP prices him as though he will automatically bounce back to register multiple WR1 seasons.
62 0 Carlos Hyde RB
63 0 Mark Ingram RB Looking increasingly likely that he could maintain a pass-catching role.
64 0 Jared Goff QB Bust risk is real, but even if he’s only a competent starting QB that means you can avoid an expensive QB market.
65 0 Eli Manning QB Durable, 100% job security and a top 10 redraft QB for me, too.
66 0 Zach Ertz TE My number two tight end has improved in every year; touchdowns are noisy and I think they’ll come just by law of averages.
67 1 Carson Palmer QB
68 1 Kelvin Benjamin WR Based on ADP you will never get him anywhere close to here. Between mixed reports, poor efficiency year one and the risk of another ACL injury, I am avoiding.
69 1 Travis Kelce TE
70 1 Tyler Eifert TE
71 15 Tyler Boyd WR Really impressive college production and draft position makes him arguably the most likely rookie WR to succeed.
72 2 Tyler Lockett WR
73 14 Will Fuller WR Draft pedigree explains most of WR’s success, historically. Fuller was a first round pick, which bodes well for his chances.
74 1 Greg Olsen TE Another great target if your time is now.
75 -2 Adrian Peterson RB If you’re going to pay up for him, then don’t half ass it… load up on win-now pieces instead of hedging.
76 2 Duke Johnson RB Perfect role and skill set to be the ideal modern fantasy running back, but the price has become that of a workhorse.
77 -5 T.J. Yeldon RB Love those talented non “lead” back that come at a discount.
78 -11 Devin Funchess WR If you’re in position to win, look to swap for one of the veteran receivers ranked just behind him.
79 0 Eric Decker WR Really nice player for a two year run at a championship.
80 0 Golden Tate WR
81 0 Julian Edelman WR
82 0 Giovani Bernard RB
83 1 LeSean McCoy RB
84 -7 Michael Thomas WR Preseason week 2 dud doesn’t phase me, but I’m rethinking preference over Boyd and Fuller after additional research
85 7 Josh Gordon WR Too many questions to take higher, too much upside to rank lower. Presumably someone else will bite for more.
86 -3 Larry Fitzgerald WR YPA is low, but he gets peppered with targets. Fading a tad due to injury because value is so tied up in him producing now.
87 4 Willie Snead WR
88 2 Marvin Jones WR Expecting a career year given opportunity, health and red zone chops.
89 32 Michael Crabtree WR  Was just too low on him considering nice mix of age/proven production.
90 -14 Emmanuel Sanders WR
91 2 Tyrod Taylor QB I’m avoiding on the grounds that we don’t know that the NFL believes he’s a starter or a high-end backup. The contract extension means almost nothing given cut risk. Plenty of upside, though.
92 2 Alex Smith QB Good chance he starts more games in the rest of his career than Wentz or Lynch, given bust rate. Don’t confuse average with bad.
93 2 Carson Wentz QB
94 2 Paxton Lynch QB Cecil Lammey says he has the “it” factor. #Analysis. But seriously, Cecil is a legend and knows Broncos beat well.
95 2 Joe Flacco QB Bounce back is coming. Maintains solid job security.
96 2 Brock Osweiler QB
97 2 Tony Romo QB Pair with Prescott.
98 -10 Leonte Carroo WR A significant value play based on rookie draft ADP; excellent rebuilder’s buy due to poor opportunity.
99 -14 Eddie Lacy RB Only lack of competition stops me from sliding into the 100’s.
100 0 Breshad Perriman WR A boom/bust prospect, Perriman has rare speed/size combination but can’t stay healthy.
101 -12 C.J. Anderson RB
102 0 Phillip Dorsett WR
103 0 Thomas Rawls RB Too many variables that can prevent him from yielding significant value.
104 1 Melvin Gordon RB
105 1 Jerick McKinnon RB Maybe it doesn’t happen this year, but McKinnon has RB1 skills if AP goes down or retires. He’ll be a free agent in 2018.
106 2 Tavon Austin WR
107 2 Charles Sims RB RB1 skills with the opportunity, but will it come?
108 2 Latavius Murray RB Sell, sell, sell.
109 6 Tajae Sharpe WR Statheads’ favorite sleeper has excelled on the field.
110 7 Derrick Henry RB Not my kind of running back prospect, but looks good so far.
111 -10 Martavis Bryant WR Perfect gamble for a punt 2016 strategy; Gordon’s reinstatement is good news for Bryant owners.
112 2 Ameer Abdullah RB
113 -2 Kenneth Dixon RB Present depth chart and Kevin Cole’s research has me backing off incrementally
114 4 DeMarco Murray RB
115 -2 Nelson Agholor WR Excellent buy-low target, but the Eagles probably reached for him.
116 -12 Dorial Green-Beckham WR It’s a red flag when a team trades away their second-round pick from the year prior, but still pedigree to be a starter.
117 2 Eric Ebron TE
118 2 Coby Fleener TE
119 3 Devontae Booker RB
120 3 Matt Forte RB
121 3 Jeremy Hill RB
122 4 Ryan Mathews RB
123 -7 Rishard Matthews WR Hat tip to WaPo’s Michael Salfino for alerting me to his stand out YPA last year.
124 26 Robert Griffin III QB 4for4’s John Paulsen really liked what he saw in preseason and at minimum, he’s way better at spotting redraft value than I am, so let’s pay attention.
125 13 DeSean Jackson WR Best ball stud.
126 1 Torrey Smith WR Best ball stud with a lesser QB that may not throw down field.
127 1 Ladarius Green TE One of the least fun things to do in fantasy is speculate on vague health issues. I’m avoiding until there’s clarity.
128 1 Braxton Miller WR Something of a mystery man with limited college reps, which makes me skeptical of poor forecasts I’ve seen.
129 2 Jeremy Langford RB Expensive JAG (“just a guy” for noobies) was one of the least efficient running backs in the NFL last year.
130 0 Matt Jones RB See Langford, Jeremy
131 1 Theo Riddick RB An elite pass-catcher, but enough buzz about Abdullah taking some of those reps to move Riddick down. It’s true that there was a perfect storm last year in Detroit in Riddick’s favor.
132 1 C.J. Prosise RB A nice stash if you’re rebuilding. Tough to guess what happens in 2016 between health and depth chart.
133 1 Delanie Walker TE
134 1 Gary Barnidge TE
135 1 Markus Wheaton WR
136 1 Kamar Aiken WR ADP has caught up with the fact that he was actually pretty good and opportunity is still there.
137 2 Jay Ajayi RB
138 2 Arian Foster RB I expect nothing next season (2017), but I’ll ride him into the sunset because he is a complete player even with diminished athleticism.
139 -14 Jamison Crowder WR
140 1 Tevin Coleman RB
141 1 DeAndre Washington RB Awfully good chance he’s better than Latavius, IMO.
142 1 Jonathan Stewart RB
143 1 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB
144 5 Jay Cutler QB  Concerned about his long term job security with the Bears.
145 1 Danny Woodhead RB
146 8 Julius Thomas TE
147 9 Dwayne Allen TE
148 18 Vincent Jackson WR Still some juice left.
149 -37 Jaelen Strong WR If he’s really fourth on the depth chart, then he deserves to move back further.
150 -3 Isaiah Crowell RB
151 0 Frank Gore RB  If you’re not confident in your team’s ability to win now you can steer clear.
152 0 Sam Bradford QB I think he is more likely than not to start elsewhere in 2017.
153 0 Pharoh Cooper WR In the Tajae Sharpe mold as someone with excellent age-adjusted production in college.
154 4 Jimmy Garoppolo QB I think he’ll start elsewhere when he’s a FA in 2018.
155 0 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE If you’re a risk taker Seferian-Jenkins still has a lot of talent, just lots of warts on and off the field now.
156 1 Clive Walford TE
157 2 Malcolm Mitchell WR Could shoot up these rankings in a year; nice cheap target for rebuilders.
158 2 Travis Benjamin WR
159 -11 Hunter Henry TE
160 -15 Chris Ivory RB
161 1 Davante Adams WR  I hope he was hurt last year, as poorly as he played. Was probably always a bit overrated as a prospect, regardless.
162 1 Kenyan Drake RB The cheapest back in Miami, he’s also my favorite based on ADP. Foster and Ajayi aren’t exactly pillars of health.
163 2 Keith Marshall RB I don’t like Matt Jones and Marshall is my preferred pick to beat him out, even if at present his place on depth chart today says otherwise.
164 23 Javorius Allen RB
165 3 Tyler Ervin RB A talented prospect made cheap by present depth chart blues, Ervin is a nice rookie draft target with a decent chance to return RB2 numbers within the new few years.
166 3 Jimmy Graham TE
167 3 Martellus Bennett TE
168 4 Antonio Gates TE
169 4 Shane Vereen RB
170 4 Paul Perkins RB Caught the ball well in college, but he’ll be behind Vereen this year and I don’t see the long-term probability to merit taking any higher.
171 4 Rashad Jennings RB Assuming I’ve developed a strong WR core, I like to go to battle with multiple Rashad Jennings-types at the start of the year and hope my bench backs turn in to starters.
172 68 James White RB May not have Lewis’ elusiveness or versatility, but as a pass catcher he showed similar efficiency.
173 18 Chris Conley WR Another boom/bust guy; looks to be the starter opposite Maclin.
174 3 Tyler Higbee TE
175 3 Maxx Williams TE The depth chart won’t forever remain this crowded.
176 4 Zach Miller TE
177 41 Christine Michael RB Maybe this is for real, but how much of this hype is due to short-term injuries to his competition? I’m selling to anyone caught up in said hype, but have to take notice.
178 16 Rashard Higgins WR There are worse dart throws if you’re speculating on a future starter for cheap.
179 4 Mike Glennon QB I think he’ll start somewhere next year and be a cheap good-enough QB. Great pickup for a rebuilding team.
180 4 Sammie Coates WR If he does in fact lose his starting job, it’ll be a feather in the cap of collegiate production vs. combine metrics. He did not produce in college.
181 4 Bilal Powell RB  If you build your team correctly, you can win with Bilal Powell in your starting lineup.
182 47 Mike Wallace WR Like him most for best ball and if your time is now, you could justify an even higher rank.
183 -7 Jordan Howard RB Sketchy fantasy profile, but the Bears have more quantity than quality in their backfield.
184 2 Justin Forsett RB
185 -4 Jace Amaro TE Opportunity knocks for this 2014 2nd round pick.
186 2 Darren Sproles RB Give us one more year, Sproles. One more…
187 2 Steve Smith WR
188 2 Terrance Williams WR  Really missed Romo  last year. Cowboys have yet to develop a significant receiving threat opposite Dez.
189 -10 Austin Hooper TE
190 2 Pierre Garcon WR
191 4 Cameron Artis-Payne RB A rare clear-cut backup RB, just wish he had more pass catching chops (and Cam at the goal line doesn’t help).
192 7 Shaun Draughn RB
193 7 Charcandrick West RB
194 -30 Chris Hogan WR
195 1 Jonathan Williams RB If McCoy goes down, he’s my pick over guys nominally ahead of him on the depth chart today.
196 1 Justin Hardy WR  I’m watching him closely as no one has emerged to replace Roddy White and Sanu is so meh.
197 1 DeAngelo Williams RB
198 9 Alex Collins RB Monitor Seahawks’ situation closely as their individual values are fluid.
199 11 Dak Prescott QB Pair with Romo for strategic value.
200 -18 Josh Ferguson RB Rough preseason has him looking more like the the next failed Gore replacement, but don’t give up yet.
201 -30 Wendell Smallwood RB Uphill battle with uncertain place on the depth chart, but I like the pass-catching profile still long-term.
202 4 Blaine Gabbert QB
203 -1 Jason Witten TE
204 -1 Spencer Ware RB
205 -1 Kendall Wright WR A forgotten man, but with DGB out of the fold could be back in the mix as the slot stud he used to be.
206 2 Vance McDonald TE
207 2 Will Tye TE  Some risk the Giants start Donnell, but Eli throws to his tight ends in the red zone and I like Tye better.
208 3 Bruce Ellington WR
209 21 Chris Thompson RB
210 2 Terrelle Pryor WR If it’s not a thing (and it probably is not), you can ditch him.
211 NR Charles Johnson WR
212 NR Kenjon Barner WR Second straight impressive preseason looks to have put him in position to be Eagles’ No. 2 RB.
213 18 Marqise Lee WR  I’d love to own him and take a look weeks 1-4. Health has been the problem. High end prospect pedigree, which should still matter to you even now.
214 NR Jared Cook TE Fine, Packers’ starting TE deserves to be on this list.
215 -14 Mohamed Sanu WR Hate the talent, but undeniably sweet opportunity. If you’re a contender, you could do worse.
216 NR Virgil Green TE
217 -4 Darren McFadden RB
218 -3 Kyle Rudolph TE
219 15 Charles Clay TE
220 -4 Richard Rodgers TE  I think he’s better than Jared Cook. That doesn’t mean he will start, though.
221 -4 Zach Zenner RB
222 -3 Brett Hundley QB He will test your patience, but upside is immense.
223 1 Ted Ginn Jr. WR  Another good best ball player due to his “home run” hitting pedigree as a deep threat.
224 -4 Daniel Lasco RB  Not much talent in the backfield after Ingram.
225 -4 James Starks RB
226 -4 Jordan Cameron TE
227 -4 J.J. Nelson WR Speed! Wheeeee!!!
228 -3 LeGarrette Blount RB
229 18 Trevor Siemian QB Smart folks at ProFootballFocus thought he looked better than Sanchez and Lynch. Seems to have pulled ahead of Sanchez, fwiw.
230 -123 Dion Lewis RB Yes he’s a running back with serious health concerns, but he makes a pretty decent buy low for a rebuilding team.
231 1 Paul Richardson WR This 2014 2nd round pick is finally healthy. Once a pretty good prospect.
232 9 Robert Woods WR
233 NR Jermaine Kearse WR
234 NR Tyrell Williams WR
235 -8 Alfred Morris RB
236 -8 Andre Ellington RB
237 -70 Mike Thomas WR (Rams.) Another highly productive collegiate wide receiver, but not doing the things this summer that you want to see from a late draft pick to surprise.
238 -77 Karlos Williams RB Could parachute in to a nice situation or balloon (D+ weight gain joke) out of the league.
239 -4 Jeff Janis WR Given the variance in opinions, at this price, you ain’t getting Janis.
240 -4 Cardale Jones QB A viable handcuff to Taylor in case the Bills decide to part ways next offseason (and due to injury risk).
241 -4 Cody Kessler QB Not in love with the prospect, but no other plausible long term QB on the roster.
242 NR Kenny Stills WR
243 NR Lance Dunbar  RB Elite PPR back is off the PUP.
244 -51 Cody Latimer WR  Aggressive ranking, but there’s reasons to believe starting with the total lack of receiving talent in Denver after Sanders and Thomas.
245 -2 Chris Johnson RB Acceptable #ZeroRB for one more year.
246 -2 Devin Smith WR 2015 2nd round pick is worth a stash at the end of your roster in deep leagues.
247 -33 Ricardo Louis WR
248 -10 Colin Kaepernick QB Enough fantasy appeal with his legs to continue to monitor.
249 NR Rob Kelley RB Depth charts are fluid now, but considering Matt Jones is meh and Keith Marshall hasn’t wowed, let’s monitor Kelley who could open up as the No. 2 back.
250 NR Jesse James TE

The Author

Tom Trudeau

Tom Trudeau

8 Comments

  1. […] 2016 Fantasy Football Rankings: TheDynastyGuru.com updates their rankings of the top 250 overall players for keeper/dynasty leagues. […]

  2. Jason
    August 23, 2016 at 12:02 pm — Reply

    There’s a strategic piece here that eludes me. I get that QB, TE, and WR have 7-12 year career peaks where RBs have 2-3 year career peaks. But doesn’t the nature of lineup submission mitigate the extent to which you downgrade RBs? If a lineup allowed for 5 starting WR and zero RB, of course they’d be valued that way. But depending on the league, I’m starting 1-3 RBs every week, and likely no more than 4 WR/TEs. At some point you get diminishing returns on valuing a position at which you can only start so many guys, right? I assume these rankings are not for a rebuilding team only. So when I’ve collected four WR who have more value than any RB on the list, how do I think about trade value to be able to correctly diversify my assets to full a lineup?

    • August 23, 2016 at 12:50 pm — Reply

      Thanks for the interesting question, Jason.

      You can win dynasty leagues without ever paying for a high-end running back provided that you’re building your team correctly.

      My rankings are developed to help owners have sustained runs of high-probability contention, which means emphasizing youth, longevity and (relative to RBs) low variance positions.

      With that in mind, the goal is to build your team to have no fewer than three, but hopefully four or more dominant wide receivers. At minimum, owners can start three WR with the FLEX spot, but 3x starting WR leagues and/or a second flex spots are increasingly common. In shallower leagues, a fourth dominant WR may seem like a luxury, but between bye weeks and injuries the utility is still there of having a stud WR even if he sits on your bench sometimes. Those four wide receivers are your foundation that sets you up to be among the best teams every single year, which is all you can ask for in a high-variance endeavor like fantasy football.

      If you get to a point when you have five or six dominant WR’s, then make sure you have stud quarterbacks and tight ends before you finally turn your attention to running backs. That said, I’m a #ZeroRB disciple, which means that I am very uncomfortable paying retail for a nominal starting running back ever.

      I prefer to utilize a boring, cheap Rashad Jennings or Franke Gore to hold down the fort until one of my lottery ticket backup running backs (this year think McKinnon, Sims, Booker, Dixon, Prosise) turn into a starter. To the extent that you’re worried about “diversifying assets” I’d recommend making sure you have a collection of plug and play boring RB’s to bide time for the pre-breakout, higher-upside #ZeroRBs waiting for their chances on your bench. If you chase whoever is the healthy starting running back at the time, I think you’ll be very disappointed.

      /EndRussianNovel

      • MP
        August 23, 2016 at 11:42 pm — Reply

        There is also the concept of discounting future value due to uncertainly (the league ending, rules changes, etc.) — which I don’t think your rankings fully account for (?).

        Also, what’s the theory behind valuing guys like Matt Ryan in the top 50? He’s totally replaceable and has limited upside — present or future. Thanks.

        • August 24, 2016 at 8:52 am — Reply

          While I am something of an agist, I do discount uncertainty associated with bust risk for prospects, high injury risk players, etc. However, it’s true that this list assumes your league will not fold. If that’s the case, you should contact me about joining a more serious league where that is not in doubt 🙂

          Regarding Matty Ice (and others like him, such as Dalton) –

          1. These are focused on 2Qb/superflex leagues in which they are not easily replaceable. I have re-added that note to the intro, (which was omitted as compared to last week’s rankings). If you play single QB dynasty then you should fade the QB rankings (and then ask your commish to change the format to 2qb, because it’s the way of the present/future.
          2. for redraft leagues I want upside. For dynasty leagues, I want to plug a hole with someone that I can count on to occupy the position indefinitely. Ryan is ultra durable and has tremendous long term job security. Once you lock in quarterbacks like Matt Ryan, you’re free to swing for the fences at other positions.

          My favorite projections for redraft have Qb’s 10-27 separated by 27 points, so if they’re all relatively similar, give me the one that is most reliable year over year.

          • MP
            August 28, 2016 at 6:31 pm

            Ah. Did not realize it’s for 2-QB leagues. That may be the way of the future, but not all that common now.

  3. […] *8/25 Edit. Find the 8/23 update here. […]

  4. […] It’s no secret that the analytically inclined are down on Matt Jones, who I called a JAG (just a guy) in my #Dynasty250. […]

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