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Drafting a Dynasty League Roster: Minor League Draft, Rounds 10-12

The Context –

I signed up for a newly-formed 20-team dynasty league so that I could write about building a roster the old-fashioned way (as opposed to the series on my rebuilding project). It is a 7×7 H2H league that uses all of the standard 5×5 categories, plus OPS/Total Bases for hitters and Quality Starts/Holds for pitchers. The active rosters are one player per position (OF are broken out by LF/CF/RF) plus a Utility player on offense, and nine pitchers (2 SP, 2 RP, 5 P). On top of that, there are 7 reserve spots, 3 DL spots and 20 minor league spots. So, all in all, it’s a very deep league with an active lineup that skews a little towards pitching and deep minor league rosters (400 total prospects will be rostered). Oh, and by the way, I’m the Minnesota Twins.

So here is a review of rounds ten through twelve of the draft. I’m going to look at who I picked and why (along with others I was considering) and who the best value picks and best upside picks of the round were (mine excluded). Hopefully this helps with either your valuations of these prospects or the preparation for your own dynasty league draft.

Round Ten –

10.1     Boston Red Sox: Matthew Olson (1B, Oakland)
10.2     Arizona Diamondbacks: Mark Montgomery (RP, New York AL)
10.3     New York Mets: Michael Fulmer (SP, New York NL)
10.4     Milwaukee Brewers: Ramon Flores (OF, New York AL)
10.5     Baltimore Orioles: Keon Barnum (1B, Chicago AL)
10.6     Pittsburgh Pirates: Stryker Trahan (C, Arizona)
10.7     San Diego Padres: Jason Stoffel (RP, Houston)
10.8     Los Angeles Angels: Edward Salcedo (3B, Atlanta)
10.9     Washington Nationals: Cheslor Cuthbert (3B, Kansas City)
10.10  *Minnesota Twins: Jeimer Candelario (3B, Chicago NL)*
10.11  Chicago Cubs: Henry Owens (SP, Boston)
10.12  Detroit Tigers: J.R. Graham (SP, Atlanta)
10.13  Houston Astros: Domingo Tapia (SP, New York NL)
10.14  Cincinnati Reds: Garin Cecchini (3B, Boston)
10.15  Oakland Athletics: Christian Villanueva (3B, Chicago NL)
10.16  San Francisco Giants: Jack Marder (C, Seattle)
10.17  Seattle Mariners: Franklin Barreto (2B, Toronto)
10.18  Toronto Blue Jays: Ryan Schimpf (2B, Toronto)
10.19  Colorado Rockies: Tyler Thornburg (RP, Milwaukee)
10.20  Texas Rangers: Adeiny Hechevarria (SS, Toronto)

My selection: I had a few safer and less exciting picks in the queue, but I decided to reach a little for one of my favorite deep dynasty prospects. Candelario is still raw and hasn’t played in full-season ball yet, but he’s also got immense offensive upside. There are still questions out there about whether he’ll be able to play a capable 3B as he moves up the chain, but for now, he still projects to stay there. In fact, I like Candelario so much that I contributed a sonnet about him in Craig Goldstein’s summary of the Chicago Cubs farm system over at Fake Teams. What can I say? I was inspired. [Other considerations: Jose Campos, Avisail Garcia]

Best value: Cheslor Cuthbert (10.9), Tyler Thornburg (10.19)
Best upside: Stryker Trahan (10.6), Henry Owens (10.11)

Yes, Cuthbert had a down year, but more than 200 players deep into this draft, you’re not going to find a ton of guys with a top-100 prospect pedigree. He can make the adjustments necessary to get back there in 2014. Thornburg is not that exciting, but in a league that counts holds, he’s a great value. There’s still a chance he could start, and if that doesn’t work out, closing may be in his future. I like Trahan a lot, and probably would have grabbed him in the previous round if I didn’t already have Swihart on my roster. It’s easy to grab my attention by putting up a 48-40 K/BB rate in the AZL while being young for both the league and his draft class. Owens is a high-upside arm whose stat line was very strange for a while at Low-A, as he was getting beaten up a bit, but still striking out a ton of guys. If he can harness his craft, he could be a #2 starter.

Round Eleven –

11.1     Texas Rangers: Jeff Locke (SP, Pittsburgh)
11.2     Colorado Rockies: Tyler Matsek (SP, Colorado)
11.3     Toronto Blue Jays: Taylor Jungmann (SP, Milwaukee)
11.4     Seattle Mariners: Lucas Sims (SP, Atlanta)
11.5     San Francisco Giants: Brad Boxberger (RP, San Diego)
11.6     Oakland Athletics: Andrew Heaney (SP, Miami)
11.7     Cincinnati Reds: Zack Cox (3B, Miami)
11.8     Houston Astros: Matthew Wisler (SP, San Diego)
11.9     Detroit Tigers: Avisail Garcia (OF, Detroit)
11.10  Chicago Cubs: Mitch Haniger (OF, Milwaukee)
11.11  *Minnesota Twins: Jose Campos (SP, New York AL)*
11.12  Washington Nationals: Enny Romero (SP, Tampa Bay)
11.13  Los Angeles Angels: Edwar Cabrera (SP, Colorado)
11.14  San Diego Padres: A.J. Ramos (RP, Miami)
11.15  Pittsburgh Pirates: Josh Sale (OF, Tampa Bay)
11.16  Baltimore Orioles: Jose Berrios (SP, Minnesota)
11.17  Milwaukee Brewers: Sean Gilmartin (SP, Atlanta)
11.18  New York Mets: Josh Vitters (3B, Chicago NL)
11.19  Arizona Diamondbacks: Jorge Alfaro (C, Texas)
11.20  Boston Red Sox: Adonys Cardona (SP, Toronto)

My selection: After considering it for the last three rounds, I finally decided to take Jose Campos – the high-upside Yankees arm who just about fell off the face of the earth after suffering an elbow injury a month into the 2012 season. I had been trying to find information on him EVERYWHERE, and nothing was available. No word on whether he was pitching at instructs, no word on whether they expected him to be healthy by spring training. So I decided to just take it on faith and go with the upside play – after all, Campos was looking like a surefire top-100 prospect when he got injured. [Other considerations: Jorge Alfaro, Jose Berrios]

Best value: Andrew Heaney (11.6), Avisail Garcia (11.9)
Best upside: Tyler Matzek (11.2), Jorge Alfaro (11.19)

Yes, Andrew Heaney will never project as more than a #3 starter, but he was still a top-10 pick on merit and was being passed over in favor of higher upside, but much riskier arms. In a 20-team league, that profile has real value. Garcia may be in the Tigers starting OF on Opening Day and he has the upside to be a very strong fantasy contributor across the board. Matzek is a complete lottery ticket, but the arm is still special – unfortunately, his odds of reaching his sky-high potential is slim at this point. Jorge Alfaro is a great pick this deep and could be a fantasy monster if his hit tool/plate discipline allows his power to play. He has upside that starts at Wilin Rosario’s 2012 season and only goes up from there.

Round Twelve –

12.1     Boston Red Sox: Philippe Aumont (RP, Philadelphia)
12.2     Arizona Diamondbacks: Kyle Smith (SP, Kansas City)
12.3     New York Mets: Sebastian Valle (C, Philadelphia)
12.4     Milwaukee Brewers: Nick Travieso (SP, Cincinnati)
12.5     Baltimore Orioles: Ty Hensley (SP, New York AL)
12.6     Pittsburgh Pirates: Juan Carlos Paniagua (SP, Chicago NL)
12.7     San Diego Padres: J.J. Hoover (RP, Cincinnati)
12.8     Los Angeles Angels: Matt Szczur (OF, Chicago NL)
12.9     Washington Nationals: Jesus Aguilar (1B, Cleveland)
12.10  *Minnesota Twins: Adalberto Mondesi (SS, Kansas City)*
12.11  Chicago Cubs: Pierce Johnson (SP, Chicago NL)
12.12  Detroit Tigers: Stephen Piscotty (3B, St Louis)
12.13  Houston Astros: David Holmberg (SP, Arizona)
12.14  Cincinnati Reds: Erik Johnson (SP, Chicago AL)
12.15  Oakland Athletics: Neftali Soto (1B, Cincinnati)
12.16  San Francisco Giants: Jose Pirela (2B, New York AL)
12.17  Seattle Mariners: Joe Benson (OF, Minnesota)
12.18  Toronto Blue Jays: Jonathan Villar (SS, Houston)
12.19  Colorado Rockies: Cesar Hernandez (2B, Philadelphia)
12.20  Texas Rangers: Vinnie Catricala (3B, Seattle)

My selection: I went way young for this one. Mondesi was the youngest player in state-side professional baseball this year, as he started in the Pioneer League before he even turned 17. Not only that, but he hit .290/.346/.386, which is pretty insane. He’ll likely start 2013 in extended spring before heading to the Appy League, but there’s an outside chance he could prove to be ready for Low-A in May or June instead. He has the chance to be an offensively inclined shortstop, who does not project to have to move off the position. [Other considerations: Drew Vettleson, David Holmberg]

Best value: Matt Szczur (12.8), David Holmberg (12.13)
Best upside: Nick Travieso (12.4), Jonathan Villar (12.18)

If you believe in Szczur, this is a bargain. If you don’t, this is a waste of a pick. I’m straddling the fence on this one, but for name value alone, this is a good spot for him to go. David Holmberg has solid mid-rotation potential and gets lost behind the higher upside names in the Diamondbacks system (Bauer/Bradley/Skaggs). He shouldn’t though – and I was bummed to have to cross him off my list. Travieso continues what seems like a long tradition of the Reds taking high-upside arms early in the draft. They are hoping he can follow Robert Stephenson’s lead from upside play to top prospect. Finally, Jonathan Villar. He gets completely forgotten about, but he’s 21, spent all of 2012 in Double-A and has a bag of tools. He’s similar to Anthony Gose in that he’ll need to prove that he can make enough contact for it to matter, but that type of upside is there.

Stay tuned for the next installment, in which I take a couple of Rays, a pitcher I’ve written about and a deep, deep sleeper.

The Author

The Dynasty Guru

The Dynasty Guru

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