Rankings. Who doesn’t love ’em. I know I do.

This week, it’s the Hot Corner, starting with #31-50 with blurbs from Joe and Drew.

As a reminder, we rank for On Base Percentage (OBP) leagues and we are projecting the three-year impact each player will have on your dynasty roster.

Enjoy.

#31 – #40

Jeimer Candelario serves as the antithesis to a grouping filled with younger, higher-upside third-basemen. I was initially going to question his playing time, but Marte’s struggles (which have continued into his winter league) have made Candelario feel safe for ~550 ABs. Essentially, the road to Candelario losing time feels unlikely, as it requires the combination of a healthy Encarnacion-Strand and Lux, as well as a resurgence from Marte. My largest question is whether or not these are plate appearances you want. The bat heavily regressed last year (.280 xwOBA), but he still provided 20 HRs, which has value in leagues where you need to fill a CI spot. Like CJ Cron in Colorado, I see value in playing Candelario when the Reds are playing in GABP, where his power plays up. I would avoid playing him away from home and suggest you accept that his spot on this list might move down 10-20 spots come 2026.

The four younger third-basemen who have made their MLB debuts are all at slightly different stages of their MLB careers. The oldest, Ke’Bryan Hayes is a player whose incredible glove provides a strong floor of PAs. However, Hayes’s bat is one that I struggle to get excited about. After finally increasing his launch angle to 13.2 degrees in 2023, it shot back down to 4.8 degrees in 2024. Along with this decrease in launch angle came a step-back in terms of his quality of contact, which had long been a source of hope for Hayes. Despite a 25th percentile sprint speed, he does provide SBs at a strong rate, but I believe that the bat is too much of a detriment to all other categories to be worth rostering at this point. Brett Baty may also get to this point soon, but I am not yet ready to give up. I am interested in monitoring the Mets third-base position battle between Baty, Mauricio, and Acuña. As all three players have a remaining option, it is anyone’s game for the spot. I expect them to play it slow with Mauricio, given he is returning from a knee injury and may not be ready for spring training. This would likely leave Baty on the strong-side of a platoon with Acuña (RHB), giving him another opportunity to put it all together. As easy as it is to look within his own organization, I caution those expecting him to go full Vientos. He has a solid approach, does not strikeout too much, and has a history of good quality of contact, but has yet to make it fully work at the MLB level. If he is sitting on waivers (which is the case in my 12-team leagues), he is worth rostering at the start of the year to see if anything clicks. Jose Miranda and Jace Jung are guys I like a bit more than the other two. As a Twins fan, I try my best to avoid getting Twins players, as it typically results in twice the pain. However, other TDG members have warmed me up to Miranda. He has a strong bat, and seemingly safe playing time until Keaschall gets involved, which should be late 2025 at the earliest. For those who don’t know, Miranda has a very solid hit-tool (89.4% in-zone contact rate), but his tendency to chase bad pitches makes him produce weaker contact than he is capable of. Some additional selectivity at the plate may unlock a much more significant contributor than these rankings suggest, but that is not an insignificant ‘if.’ In Jung’s case, an inability to produce hard contact at the MLB level in his short cup of coffee in 2024 raises some concern. He currently holds the third-base spot for the Tigers, which will hopefully provide some runway to translate his strong approach in the minor leagues to major league success. 

Gosh do I love Cam Collier. After getting written off by many after a lackluster 2023, Collier bounced back with 20 HRs and a 129 WRC+ at High-A as a 19 year old. In my mind, age-to-level is the name of the game. Collier’s production as a 19-year-old lines him up with the other 19-year-olds at High-A such as Lazaro Montes (125 WRC+) and Max Clark (119 WRC+). He did this with a very solid 75% contact rate at the level. Montes and Clark High-A contact rates of 66.7% and 76.4% respectively. Yes, Collier is unlikely to provide any steals and is most likely destined to end up at first base, but the bat will play. Add in the launch pad that is GABP, and Collier could easily provide 30+ HR seasons at peak. Ultimately Collier is an undervalued prospect who may quickly climb rankings with a strong season at Double-A. Another power bat who caught attention last season was Eric Bitonti. While I have my hesitations with Bitonti, his potential is enticing. My primary hesitation is the high strikeout rate at Single-A of 29.5%, accompanied by a subpar contact rate of 68.1%. That said, he is willing to take walks and oozes power. While he may fit the mold of a high strikeout slugger, he has some time to make adjustments as he moves through the strong Brewers organization. 

Realistically, I could see Bitonti being in the same position as Brayden Taylor, Brady House, and Brock Wilken come 2027. Like Bitonti, all three have definite upside as power bats in the MLB. I think all will definitely get their shots, as the modern MLB has increasingly become slugger driven. This is difficult for me as these are not the profiles I usually chase. Taylor demolished High-A as a 22-year-old this season and continued to produce at Double-A. The point that scared me was a precipitous rise in strikeout rate to 36.8% at Double-A and a similarly noticeable drop in contact rate to 65.2%. The jump from High-A to Double-A is where I pay particular attention to these sorts of changes, as pitchers begin to have significantly better breaking balls and velocity at Double-A. If Taylor can adjust next year, he has the pieces to be a contributor in all five categories. House had an incredible 2023, but slowed this past year as he repeated Double-A (110 WRC+) and got a taste of Triple A (61 WRC+). What concerns me is the strikeout rate is staying near 30%, and the walk rate is not rising. House is younger than Taylor, so there is even more time for him to make adjustments, and his power is enough to potentially hit through a high strikeout-rate. Brock Wilken has some of (well one of) the most loyal supporters in the prospect space. Wilken had a very strong pro-debut after college, but his production slipped a bit in 2024. I am willing to look past this, as Wilken fractured multiple bones in his face after getting hit by a pitch. I cannot imagine stepping back in the box after experiencing this, so kudos to him for returning. Look for a bounce-back in 2025 as Wilken has a strong combination of patience and power. Watch out for swing-and-miss however, as Wilken was dangerously close to a 30% strikeout rate last year. In total, these three profiles bring a similar flavor but have the upside to eventually get their shot at the MLB level. Impacting the baseball is the name of the game today, so keep an eye on their ability to make adjustments at the plate.

(Joe Juliette)

#41 – #50

We know what we’re getting with…

Matt Vierling is a pretty good major-league baseball player, and that’s not a bad thing.  Last year he posted career highs in home runs (16), runs (80), RBI (57), and plate appearances (567).  He is also versatile on the field and in fantasy lineups, qualifying at third base and outfield. At least for the next year, maybe two, that level of usage and production should be consistent, but that could change if the Tigers sign a third baseman and Wenceel Pérez continues to develop. To quote the Bard, ay, there’s the rub; how much can you rely on a guy who could be squeezed out by Wenceel Pérez?  Vierling’s hard-hit rate last year was 39.8%. Of hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, 166 had a higher hard-hit rate. At 27 years old, Vierling could have more development, but it’s likely that he is what we see.

Willi Castro gives you four position eligibility and this is why you have him rostered. The versatility will get you at-bats and give you options on your fantasy roster if you’re dealing with injuries or days off in daily leagues. The 33 stolen bases from 2023 were not repeated in 2024, even though his OBP remained constant (in fact, opportunities for steals actually went up because he hit 30 more singles and drew 17 more walks). Castro’s hard hit rate increased from 31% to 36%, but it is still even lower than Vierling’s, with lower contact rates than Vierling. Castro hit double-digit home runs for the first time last year, and that feat is likely be repeated but 15 may be the ceiling.

Are we still believing in…

After 2022 when Addison Barger posted a .308/.378/.555 slash line across three levels of the minors, oh, yes,I believed!

After 2023 when he posted a .246/.353/.392 primarily in Triple-A Buffalo, of course I still believed because, after all, look what he did in 2022.

And now, after 2024 when he posted a .260/.391/.466 slash line in Buffalo and .197/.250/.351 in 69 games in Toronto, well, now it’s hard to believe.

Barger makes decent contact, but his chase rate could use some improvement, and his walk percentage went way down when he was in the majors. That could be the result of better pitchers, or that he was pressing, or that he wasn’t up to the challenge. He is a below-average fielder so his glove won’t force his way into the lineup, especially with George Springer and Anthony Santander in the corner outfield positions.  I’m not sure I see a path to playing time. My advice is to join me in looking elsewhere.

Deyvision De Los Santos barely has 3rd base eligibility for our rankings, so check your league settings to see if you’d get one more year of third base eligibility from him. I anticipate that he will be first base or utility going forward.  De Los Santos hits the ball hard, he hits the ball far, but unfortunately, he does not hit the ball very often. He has struggled every time he’s moved up a level, generally taking a year to adjust. When Cleveland selected him in the Rule 5 draft last year, I thought they had a steal, but they sent him back to Arizona pretty quickly. They may have regretted that when they saw him tear up Double-A Amarillo (.372/426/.696 slash line in 28 games) but probably less so after he was promoted to Triple-A Reno where he cooled off a bit (.289/.338/.588 in 49 games) and then he cooled off even more after the trade to Miami where he hit .240/.284/.459) at Triple-A Jacksonville. The power is tempting, but take a look at the chase rate (45.6% in the two Triple-A stops) and the contact rates (77% in zone, 66% overall in both Triple-A stops), accompanied by a 50% ground ball rate. Major league pitchers are likely to exploit that.  It’s probably worth a shot for some cheap power that may develop, but don’t overestimate his production.

Bryan Ramos appears to be on a similar trajectory as De Los Santos, with 22 home runs in 2022, 15 in 2023, and 10 minor league home runs before hitting three with the big club in Chicago in 2024. In spite of this drop-off in power production, his underlying stats give some reason for hope. In 32 games with the White Sox, he had a 45% hard-hit rate, hit 58% balls in the air (LD% + FB%), and had contact rates at league average. Over time, those should add up to slightly higher than average home run numbers.  He is also disciplined at the plate, with a low chase rate (24%). When he was signed out of Cuba in 2018, scouts gave him above-average power and speed grades, but the speed hasn’t been there after his first professional season. It feels risky to invest too much into a White Sox prospect these days, and there’s the question of where he will play in the long run, but still, of the three players in this section, he’s the one I’m most likely to roster.

What do we really know about…

A wrist injury in July suppressed Sal Stewart’s counting stats, and that combined with valid concerns over how a wrist/hand injury can impact hitting has likely kept him low in this year’s rankings across the industry, including here at TDG. Early last year, Stewart was the first poster boy of the JTR30, the Join the Ranks Podcast running list of the most overlooked prospects in each organization. In 2024, before his injury, his OBP was a career-low .391 (read that again, “low” is not a typo), and his slugging average was a career-high .454. If he had played a full season at that rate, he’d be ranked much higher on these lists. It might be too early to worry about position, [Ed. note: it is too early] but I project him to play more second base than third base. He’s going to be an asset in OBP leagues – in 2023 he walked more than he struck out, there is some pop in his bat, and he will provide some stolen bases Personally,  I’m looking to stash him on rosters now rather than putting him on a watch list and risk getting sniped.

After his trade from the Dodgers to the White Sox, Miguel Vargas became an Instant meme. We expect professional athletes not to wear their hearts on their sleeves, but it was hard not to feel bad for the guy. The question is, how did a player who scouts drooled over while he was in the low minors become tradeable?  Vargas has never been a power threat, but what is concerning is that his batting and on-base averages have dropped steadily since 2021 when he posted a .319/380./526 slash line with 23 home runs between High-A Great Lakes and Double-A Tulsa. He followed that up with .304/.404/.511 over a full year in Tulas in 2022. In 2023 he started at Triple-A Oklahoma City (.288/.407/.479 in 285 plate appearances) before getting called up to the Dodgers where he slashed .195/.305/.367. Last year after the trade to Chicago, he hit .104/.217/.170 over 157 plate appearances. TL;DR there’s been a steady decline in his hitting stats the past four years.

And yet, there may be hope. His chase rates are low, just over 20% which contributes to his high walk rates, and his zone contact last year was 86% with an overall contact rate of 81%. Last week at a White Sox event, he told reporters he’s gained twenty pounds of muscle in an attempt to increase his exit velocities. So maybe, just maybe, if he maintains his contact rates and hits the ball harder, he already has a 50% flyball rate, there might be hope that we see what the scouts thought we’d see back in 2019, and Miguel can turn that frown upside down.

There’s an old saying that the numbers don’t lie. Klein’s corollary is that “Numbers don’t lie, until they do.” This philosophical theorem is perfectly applicable to Shay Whitcomb. This man hit 35 home runs between Double-A Corpus Christie and Triple-A Sugarland in 2023. In case you’re wondering, his slash line for both stops was a respectable .240/.301/.470. Last year in Sugarland he hit 25 home runs with a .293/.378/.530 slash line before a brief call up to Houston, and by the way, he stole over twenty bases each of those years. After striking out over 30% of the time in 2023, he cut his chase rate from 39% to 27% bringing his strikeout rate under 20%. And he’s a right-handed pull hitter in the Houston organization. He’s no Alex Bregman, but as it becomes clear that Bregman’s leaving, why isn’t anyone in Houston saying, well, we have this Whitcomb kid ready to launch some balls into the Crawford boxes?  And why am I the only one in TDG HQ trying to rank this guy higher than 49? By the way, that’s a serious question, if you have ideas, put them in the comments below, I’d love to hear them.

All Tommy White did in 25 games at Single-A Stockton last year was hit .229 with two home runs.  And all he did at LSU was hit .374 with 24 home runs his junior year and .330 with 24 home runs his senior year. If you want to start an argument at the TDG HQ, ask if we overemphasize or underemphasize the small sample of professional experience for last year’s draft class, then stand back. I’m on the right side, that we tend to overemphasize that small sample and need to look at amateur stats and scouting reports, taking into account composite bats, lesser competition, and college parties. White’s a power-hitting corner infielder and he’s been available in the second round of my FYPD drafts, at least before my pick… Don’t get cute here. Don’t reach past the very top prospects, but don’t let him slip by you either.

Is anyone who lives outside of the greater Cleveland metropolitan area aware that José Tena played in the major leagues for parts of each of the past two years? He was traded to Washington last year where there are several promising prospects ahead of him on the depth chart. In his minor league career, he’s shown an ability to get on base, but that hasn’t been true at the higher levels. His walk rate is consistently under 10% and ten home runs is likely his ceiling in terms of power output. He doesn’t offer much to fantasy managers.

(Drew Klein)