The Top 500 Dynasty League Overall Ranks, July 2013 Update
We’ve now reached the midpoint of the 2013 season. When we last took a look at this list in mid-May, we were still dealing with relatively small sample sizes from both major leaguers and prospects, so there weren’t huge shake ups to the order. This time is a little different. The further into the season we get, the biggest the variance from the preseason list gets. Whether it’s current fantasy superstars like Chris Davis and Yasiel Puig or minor leaguers who have taken legitimate steps forward like Gregory Polanco, Tyler Glasnow and Maikel Franco, we know more now–and with more knowledge comes more trajectory to the risers. The fallers, however, are still subject to similar whims as the first run through. For the most part, only injuries led to precipitous falls in the Top 500. But there are exceptions to every rule, and Ike Davis and Huston Street found this out the hard way.
As with any list like this, it is a snapshot of value at this exact moment. This list would be different if I put it together today and released it tomorrow–that’s just the nature of the beast. However, if you have any questions about values going forward, you can always just ask me. I try to be as accessible as possible, either through Twitter, e-mail or the comments on this site. You all are the reason why I continue to put so much time and effort into this site. So thank you for reading and interacting. You guys are the best.
And now for a couple of disclaimers. First of all, this list is for fantasy purposes only. Also, this list does not include any 2013 draftees–if you want to see how I feel about that crop of prospects, you can check out the Top 40 that I did a few weeks back for more detail. After the signing deadline passes, they will all get incorporated into the list as a group. Finally, the list is meant for a reasonably deep mixed league (15-16 teams) with standard categories, positions and farm systems. The list for a 10-team league would skew a lot more towards the high-upside players and the list for a 20-team league would have a heavier focus on steady players who project to have longer periods of production.
Finally, with the new rankings comes a reminder. If you’re enjoying the rankings, and all of the other work here at The Dynasty Guru, I hope that you will make a donation to show your support for the site. As a non-subscription site, this is how you can help make sure we’re still around at this time next year, producing the best dynasty league content out there. You can do that through this link, or by clicking the “Donate” button on the top-right corner of the homepage. All donations are truly appreciated.
And now what you came here for, the updated Top 500 list — as of July 1, 2013:
|278||Jackie Bradley Jr||OF||BOS||291||13|
|296||Delino DeShields Jr||2B||HOU||178||-118|
|308||Rafael de Paula||SP||NYY||359||51|
|324||Rubby de la Rosa||SP||BOS||311||-13|
|342||Alejandro De Aza||OF||CHW||285||-57|
|356||Jorge De La Rosa||SP||COL||362||6|
|376||Lance McCullers Jr||SP||HOU||402||26|
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I’m loving it. Surprised to see Upton and Castro still so high after the last two months they’ve put up. At least Castro is sort of showing signs of turning it around.
I’d watch out for Franco; even though Parks isn’t convinced, he’s putting up numbers comparable to Sano and if he can keep it up for another half season, it’ll look like much less of a fluke.
All in all, great list and now it’s time to exploit it as much as possible in my league.
Has Parks been down on Franco? I recall him thinking he was a breakout candidate, which he’s certainly been. Not being Sano isn’t a knock on someone.
Parks recently mentioned on twitter that he really doesn’t like Franco’s setup or “load” before his swing and that it leaves him a bit off balance. Also doesn’t help that he has 20-grade speed.
From the offseason write up:
“Fantasy Future: Has the potential to be an impact bat at the highest level, with plus power potential and a hit tool that should play. Lacks speed and isn’t a great defensive third baseman, but has a chance to stay at the position if the body stays under control.
The Year Ahead: If Franco brings his swing from last August to the Florida State League in 2013, his prospect status will explode and he could be sitting atop this list in short order. He can generate excellent bat speed and leverage, but he doesn’t always show the best bat control, and better pitchers with better stuff can exploit that kind of a weakness. Franco has an impact bat, but he’s still raw and needs to let the game come to him. He can play fast and loose, and while that might work in the lower minors, a more advanced level will require a more advanced overall approach. This kid could be very good.”
He was ranked #2 in the Phillies system. I hear what you’re saying but he definitely hasn’t been down on the kid.
I didn’t say he was down on him, just not convinced. He even posted a tweet the other day about the swing.
My mistake. Sorry for misconstruing!
Only a small jump for Jason Kipnis? Was figuring it would be bigger with the season he is having combined with his age and shallow position. Also, how soon do you see Profar fulfilling his top 40 potential, and where does he play long term with Texas? Thanks for the hard work, it is such a valuable resource to those of us who love this game.
Kipnis is on the rise, but I want to see this for a whole season before giving him a big spike. He had similar fantasy numbers through July 1 last year and then fell apart:
Apr-Jun 2012: .275 w/ 11 HR & 19 SB
Apr-Jun 2013: .299 w/ 12 HR & 19 SB
As far as Profar, I think the performance will come as soon as he’s playing everyday. He’s been impressive thus far without the benefit of consistent playing time.
Pedroia is 18th on this list, and Kipnis is 73rd. Given the long-term durability concerns regarding second basemen as they enter their 30s, I could easily argue I’d take the three years of youth Kipnis has on his side over the older Pedroia…especially since Kipnis is outproducing Pedroia this season. The gap between the two last year wasn’t significant, even on a per game basis. Either Pedroia should slide down or Kipnis move up (I think the latter).
Appreciate the rankings, though…especially the depth of them.
Solid list, Wacha took a large jump but I guess that is not very unexpected. Just curious, for two guys that did not make the list, who would you rank higher, Alex Colome or Jose Alvarez (detroit).
I’d take Colome. Still think he’s a reliever, but he has more upside.
Guru, it still shows that Myers is with KC
Haven’t gone through the entire list, but what jumped out at me is Cargo well behind Justin Upton. I have both in a dynasty league and value Cargo higher in the long term. Even if he changes teams.
Don’t get too hung up on the difference. The dozen or so guys behind Stanton are all very close in value. Valuing CarGo ahead of Upton is perfectly reasonable – I just happen to prefer Upton.
Witht he current state of the SS position, and how SS are in general, I’m surprised Brad Miller is so low. Although I’m assuming with some steady play he could jump quickly, no?
I just don’t think his fantasy upside is all that special. Sure, he could hit for average, but I don’t see many HR/SB in his future.
While I agree with this, I am not sure I would rank him below Gregorius. Gregorius has him on defense, but in offensive categories I feel Miller has the upside which typically is more important in fantasy.
The risk is that Miller becomes a utility guy. Gregorius’ defense will likely keep him in a starting role unless he completely falls on his face offensively. Miller is pretty good on defense, but he’s no Didi.
Good point, that is one thing that is increasing value in guys like Arenado is that they are not liabilities but actually becoming assets defensively, which keeps them in the lineup.
I have a feeling Brad Miller is going to outrank Franklin at this point next year.
So you’re still “buying” Jesus Montero for the long haul?
Yep. Still think he hits – and enough to balance out the fact that he’ll be 1B-only in 2015.
No Cheslor Cuthbert? Interesting. I’d echo the lack of Colome on here, reliever or no. Olt also seems very low — he’s back to himself post-eye issue: An 88 spot drop based on what appears to have been a momentary issue that is now solved strikes me as draconian.
I like Cuthbert, but he’ll need to at least look the part in Double-A for me to start moving him back up. He doesn’t have superstar upside. Colome would have made the next 25 or so, but I don’t think he’s a starter or closer, and there are very few of those guys on the list. He’s more valuable in deeper formats. Then there’s Olt. I guess I didn’t get the memo that he was fixed. The strikeouts, the low average are indicators that he still may not adjust well at the major league level. I still think he’ll be a solid major leaguer, but if his upside is Todd Frazier-esque, how high should be really be, given that level of risk? He’s been passed in the prospect world and he’s not getting any younger. In fact, he’ll be 25 in August. He’s older than Mike Moustakas.
This is a fantastic list. I am sure it was a ton of work. I had a couple questions though. I am a little surprised Puig is so high because his BABIP is .500 and he was not top 10 prospect going into June. Did you end up marking him that high because you feel like his tools really might project to top 10 levels long term?
I also was wondering about the Omission of Geraldo Parra. I know he probably would not go super high but he seems like a fairly skilled young regular. Does he only jump into this list in OBP leagues?
I’m having a dilemma with Carlos Correa, since he’s only 19 and likely won’t reach the majors until late 2015 or early 2016. My team has a shot at the title this year and I was considering dropping or trading him to use his spot to help with production this year. However, the 130 ranking has me thinking long and hard about it. Even though he’s younger than Addison Russell and Francisco Lindor, is his ceiling so high that it warrants the 130 spot? It’s really a time value question. 130 just seems so high considering the uncertainty of prospects panning out and having to wait a few years on top of it. But if he ends up being a top 25 player in his prime, then I suppose it’s worth it.
Yes. His ceiling is lofty. It’s an aggressive ranking, but he’s got a ton of talent.
Big jump for Gregory Polanco, is that just based on a re-evaluation of his upside?
It’s a combination of his ceiling increasing a bit, his timetable advancing and his floor rapidly rising. He’s always had this ability, but lots of guys break out in Low-A and don’t follow it up strongly. Polanco is proving he’s not just a pop up guy, but someone with legit holding power.
great list, thanks again guys. My one question is where is iglesies? im not a huge believer in him at all but hes hitting over .400 through 125 ABs. I know he doesnt have a ton of steals or homers in him and that he will cut that average down alot but he rarely strikes out and at a weak SS position i feel like he could be an average offensive ss which you dont seem to think considering you have roughly 35-40 other shortstops on here
I don’t think he ever becomes an average SS outside of another completely fluky BABIP-fueled stretch. I am not a believer in his bat.
I noticed no Adam Lind. Obviously I don’t think anyone believes he’s actually this good again but I was somewhat surprised to not see him toward the back 50-100. He’s still only 29. Is that position based or a lack of belief this resurgence is for real?
That is a mistake on my part – Lind should be on the list. I’d have him just ahead of Chris Carter among 1B. These are the minor perils of not having an editor.
No Smoak either, has that train left the station (I really need to unfollow Geoff Baker)?
For me, yea. I’m not particularly optimistic he’ll ever be fantasy relevant outside of very deep formats.
Dynasty format. H2h 5×5. U keep 25 out of 36 players on ur roster. I was offered cano for my Puig & eovaldi. Is this an obvious sell high or will Puig b a monster that a dynasty leaguer should not give up?
Puig might be a fantasy monster you’d regret trading away, but Cano is kinda that guy now, right? I’d make that deal if you need help at the keystone.
Well I start rendon and carpenter @ 2b & mi and Brad miller ss. Does that constitute needing help in your opinion? I’m guessing so lol
Love the re-ranks! Thanks for doing this.
I was curious how Rymer Liriano jumped 36 spots despite being out for the season.
It’s a reexamination of my ranking last time. Looking back on it, I didn’t like how much I dropped him due to an injury that should not affect him long-term. So it was a market correction for that.
Sorry, but a couple of these rankings just make little to no sense to me. Goldschmidt behind Castro? Really? I know SS is a thin position, but 1B isn’t what it used to be, and Goldy has a chance at being a 35-40 HR/15-20 SB type that hits close to .300. Castro will be lucky to hit .280 with double-digit HR. Also, Adam Jones has been an absolute monster, and he gets moved down a spot? Yet, HanRam has barely played at all and gets moved up 6 spots? I know these are all nit-picking type things, and when you do a list of this magnitude and size, you’re essentially opening yourself up to idiots like myself. Im just curious as to your logic of the Castro ranking(especially in relation to players such as Goldy and Chris Davis) and the Adam Jones ranking. The list, as a whole, is very good though.
I’m not bailing on Castro’s upside just because he’s having a rough season. I still believe in him long-term as a guy who can hit for high average with power and steals. I like Goldy a lot, but even with 1B being slightly down as a position, there’s still a lot of fantasy talent there. And Castro, despite Gavin been around longer, is still 2 1-2 years younger than Goldy.
As far as Hanley, with him healthy, he moves right back up to where he was in the preseason. I’m a big Hanley supporter and think he has a monster second half.
Keeper league, would you trade Pedro Alvarez for P. Corbin straight up?
I’d rather have Alvarez. Although it depends on your format – if you get penalized for his strikeouts or average, or if you don’t have a corner infielder spot. Even if he hits .240 over the next 5 years, he’s 26 and he can put up 35-45 HR seasons and there aren’t many players like that. You know what you’re getting with Alvarez. He just went nuts for a month. He could go on a cold spell for the next few weeks, but you know he has another mean streak or two in him this season. At the end of the day, he’ll get his numbers. I like Corbin a lot, but I’d aim higher for someone like Mike Minor or Archie Bradley.
Not knowing needs or format, probably not. I like Corbin a lot, but power at 3B is rarer than we thought coming into the year.
Any reason for Rhymer Liriano’s jump up? Just wondering cause I’m looking for a pickup in my dynasty league and he’s looking like the top available. (I was previously debating between Robert Stephenson and hometown fave Maikel Franco.
How far is Sonny Gray from cracking your top 500?
Great list, thanks!
Thanks! Very, very close. In fact, he was one of the last few names cut from the list. He’s had a very nice bounce back season this year.
Thanks. Waiting for yahoo to add him to the database then probably going to put a claim on him in my dynasty league. At the risk of sounding greedy, a top 600 would satisfy those of us in 20 team leagues with ~30 man rosters ;).
But yes I’m also well aware of the slippery slope you can venture down in that regard!
Why still such a believer in heyward?
I’m not sure of others opinions, but he’s still only 23. And he has a track record of some success at the MLB level already. So, I think it’s reasonable to still believe in his abilities. He was a slow starter last season as well. Perhaps that’s just who he is (?).
Would you trade Lawrie straight up for Wheeler if your third baseman was Machado? Or should I wait for Lawrie to come back and raise his value?
Do it now!
If this is a Dynasty list of players projected value for the next several years, why is Mo Rivera ranked at all? He will be retired by year end. Speaking of Yankees, why the big jump for Gary Sanchez?
Because Rivera is still very valuable this year, and closers are so fungible from season to season anyway. Sanchez keeps rising due to very positive reports both on his bat and his ability to stay behind the plate. He’s turning into a very exciting prospect for fantasy purposes.
Great work with the rankings and with the site–an indispensable reference. I’m in a newly formed 13-team 6×6 league (OBP instead of AVG, add SLG; K/9 instead of Ks, add INN) with 50 roster spots and 30 keepers per year.
I’m wondering about your #301 ranking of Lucas Sims. Most of what I’ve read projects him to have 3rd starter upside, and he’s still years away from the majors. Your ranking is much higher than anything else I’ve seen. He’s a free agent in my league–worth a pick-up immediately? What’s influencing your ranking most?
(To give a sense of what the FA pool looks like: Story, Ramirez, Berrios, and Owens are also available.)
Ouch. Traded Ryan Howard for Cozart in my Deep league (20 x 25) about a month ago because my Jeter was not returning as quickly as I initially anticipated. I was playing the likes of Nick Punto on my roster. That’s quite a drop for Cozart. Especially at the SS position (a hard position to fill IMHO). This is who he has always projected to be, I think (about 75-15-75 hitting between .250 and .275). He’s close to that mark. Why the drop now?
His .270 OBP probably has a lot to do with this. The guy isn’t going to hit for a high average and doesn’t walk at all.
I love the list. Great work. So my pitching is really strong but I could really use another OF in one of my keeper leagues. I was offered Kevin Gausman and Oswaldo Arcia for Shelby Miller. Thoughts? What is Arcia’s upside?
Any feedback would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!
I’m shocked to see Plouffe unranked yet Sandoval top 50. Plouffe and Sandoval’s average and OBP are similar but Plouffe has a higher SLG in 50 less at bats. And atm Plouffe has more home runs than Sandoval. Plouffe and Sandoval are also about the same age. Plouffe just turned 27 while Sandoval turns 27 next month. So I can’t see the logic behind ranking Sandoval top 50 yet not ranking Plouffe at all.
Shocked to see Mike Leake unranked given his age and what #’s hes been able to put through so far this year considering hes only 25.
How could taijuan walker possibly move down on this list after his performance this year?
He’s still pretty high, but despite the performance being impressive, he hasn’t developed his secondary stuff as well as some would like to see at this point. Especially the change. I believe he’ll get there, but if he doesn’t make improvements there, he’s probably either a disappointing starter or a great reliever long-term. We’re a long way off from that bring his destiny though.
Hey! What are your thoughts on potential trade? I”m in a 12 H2H Dynasty league 15 keepers, 20 major league spots, 30 minor leaguers. Currently in first place but looking to bolster up my pitching staff which has been weaker part of my team. I have Harvey, Zimmerman, Shields, G. Gonzalez, Miller, Dickey, Hector Santiago, Kluber, Stults, S. Miller, Leake, Bumgarner. Would it be worth it for me to trade Hector Santiago (10 year contract) and Carlos Martinez (no contract since I haven’t promoted him) for Mat Latos (7 years left)? If I get him, Id probably use a keeper on him, thoughts?
Yes I’d do that, but it sounds like pitching isn’t a weakness for you. And is Hector Santiago really on a 10-year deal? Wow.
Haha, it could potentially go up to 10 years, but I just picked him up off waivers, so it was sweet :D. Thanks for taking the time to reply! 😀 Also, wondering what your thoughts are on Miguel Almonte and Ceiling/Risk?
So I have Buxton. In first this year, need a SP and maybe a bat.
What you think of these trades.
Buxton or Myers for Sale
Buxton and Starlin for Tulo
In a 12-team H2H point league that doesn’t count Ks for hitters, with a custom salary structure (but draft not auction)… I am tied for 1st with a fairly inferior team to the team I’m tied with. We keep 5 players with salary constraints, and one rookie who can be set to a low salary the following season. I have Puig and Archer as rookies already, also have Arenado and Sano. We can make trades in the offseason, but Archer and Puig are also low salary, so could be kept as normal players instead of rookies. Current 3Bs are Ryan Zimmmerman and Kyle Seager (also manning 2B ahead of Utley currently). We don’t start CI, just a normal lineup + 1 UTIL spot.
Question is this: If you needed to drop one of Arenado and Sano, with 50% focus on winning this year and 50% focus on having trade chips in the offseason/building for the future, Which do you drop? What is the difference in ceiling between Sano and Arenado? I don’t see either of these guys contributing meaningfully this year. Is Arenado a top-15 3B in 2014, and is Sano in the big leagues in 2014?
In a 12-tm, Arenado is much more replaceable than Sano, who has elite upside.
I got offered Ryu, Skaggs, Pedro Alvarez, Buxton for Derek Holland and Chris Sale in a 10 team dynasty roto… accept?
First year of a dynasty league my keepers are currently David Wright, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Jose Reyes, Yasiel Puig, and Jose Fernandez. What I can’t decide is whether to keep Upton instead of Wright(we can keep 1 player from rounds 1-3 and Reyes was dropped!). Why is Upton so high? Thanks
Also, why so low on Julio Teheran? I personally see him as a perennial 15/3.25/200 guy.
That seems pretty bold for right now. He’s promising, but that would make him a borderline fantasy ace and I don’t see that in his future.
So when’s that mid August list coming out?
January. Had the option to half-ass it and speed through a ranking last week and decided against it. I don’t half ass things, I whole ass things. Patience will be rewarded in the off-season.
My biggest problem with rankings that mix minor and major league players is it needs to be based on what you think these players will be in the primes and say target out 3-5 years. I’d honestly consider Buxton a top 10 player NOW in a dynasty league as far as how much value I think he should have since I think he is a lock to be a 30/30 type player in the majors in his prime. However a player like Profar I do not see as much more than an everyday solid SS/2B but with some limited fantasy baseball upside. Certainly not more fantasy upside that players like Harvey, Price, Craig, Scherzer, etc. However if you think Baez could be a 30 HR SS, then he may deserve to be in the top 50. When you weigh these factors you need to weigh their potential projected tools and not where they rank within Baseball America’s prospect rankings. Their rankings are based on much more than just offense, hence why Profar was the #1 prospect.
Josh Johnson at 110? Why is Rivera even on a Dynasty league ranking? A-Rod/Halladay, etc. ahead of youngster stars like Andrelton Simmons is laughable. It would be easier to just unrank anyone over 35 years of old unless they are producing at such a high rate and have years left on their current deal.
This might be my favorite comment ever.