Dynasty BaseballScouting the Statline

Scouting the Statline – The Top 300 Projected Hitters

Scouting the Statline focuses on using aging curves and major league equivalencies to generate peak projections. Peak projections put all minor and major leaguers on equal footing for comparative purposes, allowing us to easily build data-based rankings and leaderboards.

In the last month we have published rankings articles while ramping up to our overall top projected dynasty hitters list. Find more information about these companion pieces below:

The Top Minor League Hitters Since 2006 – the best projected minor league hitters since 2006. This list demonstrates the efficacy of our models/processes and lets us see how current minor leaguers compare in the grand scheme of things. Click here for the full list of nearly 7,000 eligible hitters.

MLB’s Top Projected Prospects – a list of the best projected prospects. Complete with full statistical projections and historical player comps. Click here for the full list of over 1,600 eligible hitters. Once the season starts, this list will be updated weekly at statlinescouting.com. For the prospect-obsessed owners, don’t forget to also check in daily to see how our top prospect leaderboard and prospect hot lists evolve once the season begins at statlinescouting.com.

The table below shows peak projections for all professional hitters younger than 29 in 2022. For hitters 29 and over, 2022 projections are shown. The hitters are ranked by dynasty z-score, a comprehensive metric based on a blend of peak wRC+ and peak SB/600, with peak wRC+ weighted more heavily (or a blend of 2022 wRC+ and 2022 SB/600 for hitters 29 and over). For more information on our top projected hitters, please follow this link to view the full list of over 5,400 players, with and without regression applied!

The Top 300 Projected Hitters

NameZ-Score RankAgePA in SamplewRC+BAOBPSLGHR/600SB/600CS/600BB%K%BABIP
Juan Soto12321851870.3050.4760.5763512322%12%0.315
Fernando Tatis Jr.22315771700.2980.3970.6284427212%25%0.332
Mike Trout33015951800.2880.4420.5984112019%23%0.324
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.42319141710.3130.4080.612395113%10%0.297
Ronald Acuna Jr.52418651620.2850.4020.5773829315%23%0.318
Shohei Ohtani62716061430.2550.370.5413723514%28%0.299
Wander Franco72112561550.3130.3890.573311311%5%0.285
Yordan Alvarez82516081570.2820.3790.594413012%23%0.306
Julio Rodriguez9219621510.2970.3760.573612210%18%0.314
Bryce Harper102922201480.2660.410.5013013118%25%0.321
Jose Ramirez112921301370.2640.3640.5253427213%13%0.25
Mookie Betts122921161450.2830.3880.5213016213%16%0.298
Anthony Volpe13216631360.240.3490.5454017513%19%0.228
Aaron Judge143017111450.2710.3820.532345013%29%0.335
Luis Robert152413311450.290.3470.59402117%23%0.317
Bo Bichette162418851340.2950.3550.522292418%17%0.32
Rafael Devers172521301410.2840.360.548347210%18%0.299
Alex Bregman182820191460.2760.3930.517314015%12%0.269
Kyle Tucker192519401380.2740.3570.543521111%18%0.281
Trea Turner202922231300.2960.3550.507263128%19%0.334
Brandon Lowe212717781400.2560.3530.556408111%28%0.291
Randy Arozarena222715151280.2730.3490.504292259%26%0.331
Riley Greene23218091360.260.3530.5353611111%24%0.289
Freddie Freeman243223561360.2880.3870.48236113%19%0.333
Xander Bogaerts252921091360.2870.3720.505277011%18%0.319
Jordan Walker26203661380.2830.3480.556361238%20%0.303
Pete Alonso272721431380.2540.3470.555402011%24%0.272
Francisco Alvarez28205821380.2490.3550.542397313%18%0.24
Byron Buxton29289591340.2770.3230.578402116%25%0.304
Bobby Witt Jr.30227441210.2440.3150.529371858%22%0.247
Christian Yelich313019601340.2670.3860.4712518114%25%0.333
Zac Veen32204791150.2480.3550.4322219913%24%0.3
Matt Olson332821491360.2530.3580.527363013%22%0.269
George Springer343217721350.2630.3570.526346111%21%0.284
Josh H. Smith35244921250.2540.3470.4923019311%19%0.268
Oneil Cruz362310461300.2630.3390.529351729%24%0.293
Nick Yorke37204421310.280.3620.496278611%14%0.287
Gleyber Torres382518421260.2690.360.4782612311%18%0.295
Starling Marte393319741120.2820.3270.465223826%19%0.322
Brandon Nimmo402915101310.2690.3940.445217215%24%0.337
Jesse Winker412813911370.2820.3780.499271012%18%0.312
Corey Seager422813061350.2910.3680.51271010%18%0.321
Franmil Reyes432618091320.2530.3440.532363111%29%0.298
Alek Thomas442212731270.2660.3470.5053011310%19%0.284
Andy Pages452110291340.240.3440.54406212%23%0.245
Tyler O'Neill462714501240.2590.3290.518341228%33%0.332
Spencer Torkelson47225301340.2250.3430.544434214%20%0.207
Bryan Reynolds482718401290.2830.3710.474234111%22%0.34
Akil Baddoo492311271150.240.3480.4442523313%24%0.283
Ozzie Albies502521961220.2770.3390.494271628%16%0.29
Nate Lowe512618481280.2590.3710.466265014%24%0.311
Eloy Jimenez522514881350.2790.340.55436108%22%0.301
Manny Machado532922641250.2680.3510.492810110%17%0.286
Max Muncy543119481310.2380.3660.492332015%25%0.272
Tim Anderson552919191200.30.3330.494242035%22%0.36
CJ Abrams56213481240.2970.3520.482222428%14%0.323
Edouard Julien57235141170.2050.3520.4453116317%29%0.247
Gabriel Moreno58226671380.2950.3470.55534527%13%0.287
Ramon Laureano592715411220.2630.3370.498301739%26%0.312
Austin Riley602518241300.2730.3460.5232109%26%0.325
Brennen Davis61226921290.2470.3430.519358211%24%0.271
Anthony Garcia6230779800.210.3010.358170010%28%0.267
George Valera63215991260.210.3510.4943710316%23%0.21
Anthony Rendon643217331310.2790.3740.479242012%15%0.302
Carlos Correa652716921310.2690.3650.491282012%20%0.299
Luke Voit663115281320.2610.350.52340011%28%0.313
Giancarlo Stanton673214711320.260.3580.509322011%30%0.327
Alejandro Kirk68238861340.2740.3730.494282013%10%0.262
Ketel Marte692817941300.2970.3590.49624608%15%0.323
Jarred Kelenic702212711190.2320.3270.53515311%21%0.231
Teoscar Hernandez712918901220.2630.3310.508311228%29%0.323
Austin Meadows722718101260.2560.340.513310110%21%0.273
Robert Hassell III73205161120.2490.3490.4272117412%17%0.27
Ty France742719431290.2870.3440.51629107%19%0.314
Joey Wiemer75234721150.2240.3170.4953514411%25%0.235
Yoan Moncada762720781260.2680.370.46237112%28%0.346
Trent Grisham772518151190.2440.3540.4552614213%22%0.277
Paul Goldschmidt783422821230.2710.3640.458236012%24%0.335
Richie Palacios79256181150.2550.3490.4432316212%19%0.285
Marcus Semien803124101210.2580.3410.4832811010%19%0.275
Nick Castellanos813021691260.2770.3350.52131207%24%0.319
Dylan Carlson822317981250.2590.3530.486297112%21%0.288
Jorge Polanco832819301190.2750.3380.48126928%17%0.296
Rhys Hoskins842919931240.2360.3560.474303114%25%0.273
Jared Walsh852817831250.2540.3340.51534109%29%0.304
Jazz Chisholm Jr.862415381080.2240.3090.476322159%30%0.268
Jonathan India872513271170.2470.3510.4512510213%24%0.29
Jhonkensy Noel88207591250.2610.3190.54337627%19%0.26
Kris Bryant893018431210.2530.3450.477286111%26%0.302
J.D. Davis902914321270.280.3690.467232011%27%0.362
Triston Casas91228761220.2380.3550.465296214%20%0.255
Will Smith922715091240.2390.3430.498343012%24%0.261
Kyle Schwarber932918151250.2270.3460.496352014%29%0.264
Darin Ruf94354201320.2630.3810.468253014%30%0.346
Jose Altuve953220621210.2750.3450.47925719%15%0.288
Joey Gallo962817321220.1840.340.49406017%36%0.227
Willy Adames972619451210.2540.3460.476286211%28%0.312
Alex Verdugo982616701200.2890.3570.45219819%14%0.319
Yasmani Grandal993317571240.2260.3790.438262018%25%0.272
Josh Lowe1002414461140.2440.3440.4462520012%28%0.305
Everson Pereira101214781210.2190.3090.5364211310%28%0.232
Mark Canha1023317941170.2480.3530.448258113%22%0.287
Khalil Lee1032413711170.2450.3660.4222119414%30%0.33
Greg Jones10424535990.2360.3190.416223119%31%0.312
Miguel Vargas1052213301210.2710.340.48527819%15%0.28
Trevor Story1062921721130.2610.3360.453232329%26%0.326
J.D. Martinez1073421771230.2690.3510.478262010%24%0.322
Cedric Mullins II1082721101060.2530.3230.443232539%18%0.274
Cody Bellinger1092619061210.2420.3490.4712912013%20%0.26
Matt Fraizer110244991130.2440.3280.471298510%24%0.274
Gavin Lux1112416531200.2580.3530.461258112%20%0.291
Andrew Benintendi1122718661140.2660.3480.442112410%18%0.302
Ryan Mountcastle1132517071190.2690.3280.49829427%24%0.311
Francisco Lindor1142822021160.2580.3390.4672616210%16%0.266
Orelvis Martinez115206141200.2310.3030.54742428%21%0.213
Dustin Harris116227041130.2610.3320.464251219%17%0.277
Alex Kirilloff1172412091220.2720.3320.50830418%19%0.292
Michael Conforto1182920091200.2540.360.451244013%25%0.309
Jeff McNeil1193018521200.2920.3420.47923507%15%0.316
Mitch Haniger1203116701200.2520.3310.49932309%26%0.29
Matt Chapman1212920641180.2330.3370.479312112%29%0.279
Brett Auerbach122233681000.2150.2980.459311859%25%0.233
Taylor Ward1232815591190.2550.3520.459259112%27%0.316
Felix Valerio124219921090.2550.3390.4292115411%13%0.257
Jake Fraley1252710731090.2320.3340.4372521212%27%0.281
Curtis Mead126216391150.270.3230.48827627%15%0.272
Luis Arraez1272516651170.30.3690.421134110%7%0.316
Josh Jung128245401220.2610.330.50731318%23%0.291
Ji-hwan Bae129229041060.2640.3510.3961424411%20%0.319
LaMonte Wade Jr.130284401140.2450.3350.461278211%26%0.291
Javier Baez1312919881100.2510.2980.504331525%32%0.314
Daulton Varsho1322513231160.2520.3330.4742814010%21%0.275
Nolan Jones1332414611150.2180.3550.435277116%30%0.277
Kevin Cron134299181250.240.330.521370010%30%0.282
Luis Matos135207811100.280.3210.465221226%11%0.28
Vidal Brujan136241444980.2430.3250.4041937310%16%0.26
Isaac Paredes1372315741190.2530.3580.447243013%13%0.253
Salvador Perez1383213911190.2690.3010.54336104%25%0.297
Austin Slater1392913461090.2530.3470.4171920111%29%0.338
Jo Adell1402313931130.240.310.498331028%28%0.276
Brandon Belt1413416521170.2470.3570.442243113%26%0.305
Mitch Garver1423110571190.2430.3410.478301111%29%0.298
Jordan Luplow1432811301180.2250.3430.469316214%24%0.247
Austin Martin144234181060.2380.3480.41912313%20%0.275
Drew Waters1452315301050.2490.3230.437231949%28%0.317
Shay Whitcomb14623444990.2170.2870.47331737%31%0.259
Oswald Peraza14722963970.2470.3090.425212648%19%0.271
Samad Taylor1482312881010.2270.3310.4072228312%27%0.282
Andres Gimenez1492315581070.2610.3140.464252727%21%0.29
Abraham Toro1502516941110.2440.3290.458278211%17%0.247
Nick Gonzales151233691170.260.3430.462255210%28%0.327
Juan Yepez1522410571180.2380.320.504342210%21%0.244
Anthony Rizzo1533220971150.2560.3380.46255110%16%0.265
Luis Urias1542518641150.2540.3510.439226012%21%0.294
Leo Jimenez155216631170.2790.3760.409144113%15%0.32
Vaughn Grissom156215641100.2690.3450.427189210%15%0.294
Michael Brantley1573519631170.2960.350.4518408%11%0.317
Seth Beer1582512751180.250.320.50833008%22%0.264
Jose Abreu1593521671160.2650.3270.48728108%23%0.301
Chris Taylor1603118291110.2570.3450.4292011010%31%0.348
Justin Turner1613717691160.2730.350.447212010%17%0.308
Nelson Cruz1624119171160.2430.3270.483312010%24%0.272
Jairo Pomares163215571210.2650.3060.54537315%23%0.281
Garrett Cooper164319181190.2770.3580.445201110%28%0.366
Robbie Grossman1653218231050.2370.3510.3921815214%22%0.284
Bryan Lavastida166237311070.250.3390.4232110411%19%0.28
J.T. Realmuto1673118601100.2650.3310.45221018%25%0.322
Xavier Edwards1682210931040.280.3550.3811022410%10%0.307
Adley Rutschman169246981150.2320.3430.453282213%19%0.239
Eddys Leonard170219011130.2320.3210.479326210%23%0.248
Heriberto Hernandez171227931140.2260.3380.454295213%28%0.27
A.J. Pollock1723414651120.2650.3180.482271106%23%0.303
Josh Bell1732919871160.250.350.444240012%21%0.284
Kristian Robinson174215471250.2270.3250.5324017011%25%0.234
Chris Gittens175289431190.2290.3560.44827-1015%33%0.308
Otto Lopez1762312411050.2750.3350.419161628%16%0.31
Tony Kemp1773012681090.2580.3520.411714112%14%0.28
Bryson Stott178246801100.240.3420.432237212%24%0.284
Vinnie Pasquantino179247611160.2430.3260.486312010%16%0.234
Jack Blomgren18023345910.250.3410.343818511%22%0.324
Cooper Hummel1812711891150.2290.3510.438263114%26%0.274
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.1822817221140.2730.3190.48727516%21%0.306
Miguel Sano1832916321140.2160.3250.478341112%37%0.291
Brayan Rocchio1842110551030.2510.3070.457261547%16%0.254
Yonny Hernandez185241391910.2280.3570.315834616%17%0.271
Keston Hiura1862517751120.2470.3250.471281009%31%0.318
Nick Pratto1872315541090.2040.3160.473412112%31%0.24
Yandy Diaz1883015721140.2610.3670.408172113%17%0.3
Jordan Westburg189235061030.2240.3180.438279311%26%0.261
Jesus Sanchez1902413881130.250.320.4829318%24%0.284
MJ Melendez1912314221120.2050.3130.488374212%29%0.225
Nolan Gorman1922213091100.2270.3040.49735409%25%0.24
Josh Donaldson1933615381140.2290.3530.432251015%24%0.268
Nolan Arenado1943121891130.2620.3310.46325109%16%0.275
Jeimer Candelario1952820241130.2540.3480.435222011%23%0.307
Victor Bericoto196203251260.2690.3720.46238013%24%0.333
Jorge Soler1973017221140.2260.3270.476321011%27%0.261
C.J. Cron1983216661140.2510.3290.47128009%25%0.292
Wil Myers1993115861080.2490.3360.432213210%32%0.338
Bobby Dalbec2002716501130.2180.3090.498373010%34%0.27
Luisangel Acuna20120713910.240.3190.381620510%19%0.276
Greg Allen202291321970.2650.3250.395143217%23%0.332
Harrison Bader2032814481060.2490.3260.437231529%27%0.312
DJ LeMahieu2043321311090.2820.3470.41815519%14%0.316
Jake McCarthy20524905900.2120.2960.409242749%26%0.25
Michael Harris II20621632950.2580.3240.39141839%17%0.294
Bradley Zimmer20729686880.2310.3170.367152549%36%0.344
Tyler Freeman2082310281120.2950.3240.471211215%10%0.301
Jonathan Aranda209248611120.2620.3380.445222110%20%0.298
Steven Kwan210249471100.270.3440.427188110%11%0.277
Willson Contreras2113016821090.2470.3330.442244210%28%0.313
Ian Happ2122718131070.2260.3420.418239113%31%0.299
Jonatan Clase21320343970.2270.3320.3841832012%24%0.276
Wilmer Flores2143013981130.2750.3320.46223108%14%0.287
Marcell Ozuna2153116641130.2560.3390.448235010%22%0.3
Trey Mancini2163019311120.2580.3310.4625009%24%0.304
Roberto Ramos217279861150.2250.3270.483331011%34%0.289
Jarren Duran2182512751020.2480.3130.442242528%26%0.299
Marco Luciano219206691070.2120.3110.47336311%22%0.213
Brett Baty220226131080.2230.3310.439274212%26%0.261
Kevin Alcantara221193121110.2520.3180.47829918%22%0.276
Whit Merrifield222332427960.2750.3210.399132916%16%0.315
Tyler White2233112721120.2480.3630.405180114%23%0.307
Amed Rosario2242619821050.280.3250.434181706%19%0.326
Jose Miranda2252416261110.2690.3140.4826116%14%0.266
Cavan Biggio2262718161090.2240.3590.42112116%27%0.283
Kevin Smith2272514891040.2280.3020.471311418%29%0.268
Brian Anderson2282916981090.260.3380.43421509%25%0.322
Dylan Moore229291319930.2150.3010.4182531310%28%0.259
Andrew Vaughn230247141090.2410.330.444252111%18%0.254
Luke Berryhill231243301120.210.3040.503392210%32%0.242
Austin Wells232224691020.210.3140.44299112%25%0.231
Terrin Vavra233258701080.2420.3550.41811114%21%0.288
Daniel Vogelbach2342914971120.2090.3610.409250018%25%0.247
Connor Joe2352912191120.2420.3520.425221013%25%0.295
Ji-Man Choi2363114411120.2310.3530.424241014%27%0.286
Austin Shenton237245981150.2370.3210.488320010%25%0.261
Michael Reed238294791220.2450.3620.4562610013%34%0.335
Taylor Walls2392513611000.2260.3380.3911919413%24%0.273
Peyton Burdick240258041070.2090.3270.439296213%31%0.259
Keibert Ruiz2412311851110.260.3260.46225109%8%0.23
Luis Campusano2422311391110.2590.3340.44823109%17%0.279
Mike Yastrzemski2433118221100.2390.3260.456274010%28%0.291
Gio Urshela2443013961100.2780.3230.46322106%21%0.325
Mark Vientos2452210651110.2360.3110.48632119%24%0.258
Canaan Smith-Njigba246239881030.2330.3580.3731612115%25%0.297
Jake Cronenworth2472817501080.2650.3370.42919819%17%0.296
Tommy Pham2483419141010.2330.3440.3851718313%24%0.289
Alec Bohm2492513631070.2590.3350.42620609%22%0.306
Myles Straw250271773920.2460.3360.3531135311%20%0.299
Anthony Alford251271230970.2380.3230.4192269%36%0.344
Max Kepler2522919041050.2250.3220.439277012%18%0.224
Rowdy Tellez2532715501110.2440.3190.47429209%22%0.265
Ke'Bryan Hayes2542515171050.2590.3370.4131812110%20%0.306
Avisail Garcia2553116681040.2550.3160.44723827%26%0.312
Jordan Groshans256226191110.2650.3490.427191111%19%0.307
Miguel Andujar257279551100.2720.3150.47826216%15%0.277
Diego Cartaya258203441150.2340.3210.491332110%22%0.244
Adalberto Mondesi259261348950.2450.2970.434235716%28%0.306
Liover Peguero26021827930.2410.3080.404191938%21%0.278
Esteban Quiroz261307791110.2250.3320.449282012%28%0.271
Eddie Rosario2623018781020.2560.3010.46125916%16%0.258
Clint Frazier2632711911080.2340.3340.434256012%27%0.287
Hoy Park2642613511020.2310.3550.3711613215%23%0.286
Nick Madrigal2652510291080.2970.340.425141627%5%0.293
Justin Dirden266243501020.1980.3050.453335312%32%0.237
Jorbit Vivas267219281050.2570.320.44222828%13%0.254
Tyler Stephenson2682512351100.260.3490.419180011%21%0.309
Johan Camargo2692814621090.2670.3330.4421008%22%0.317
Euribiel Angeles27020689990.2710.3280.399141238%13%0.297
Noelvi Marte27120810980.2290.3170.4172312310%21%0.252
Jacob Robson272271406980.2310.3370.3831719412%34%0.333
Eguy Rosario273221512960.2440.3190.4181749%20%0.282
Diego Infante27422854990.240.3170.42122939%28%0.302
Alex Ramirez27520171850.2220.2720.42825405%28%0.263
Dominic Canzone27624534980.2310.2910.458291027%22%0.244
Buddy Kennedy2772310991010.230.3210.426247111%22%0.258
Brandon Marsh2782414011020.2380.3390.3981913112%29%0.314
Michael Hermosillo279279711030.2320.3150.441261329%32%0.305
Joc Pederson2803015761060.2280.3050.47532219%25%0.248
Carlos Mendoza281224911010.2520.3550.3641115013%15%0.289
Kolten Wong2823116601000.270.3280.408151728%18%0.311
Luis Garcia2832216421060.2690.3180.4522727%13%0.275
Josh VanMeter2842714341050.2310.3360.4192310112%25%0.278
Tommy Edman285272059950.2650.3130.407162226%17%0.3
Ryan McKenna2862514381030.230.3350.412212112%26%0.286
Sean Murphy2872711311080.2280.3210.457291011%25%0.257
Eugenio Suarez2883020811080.2230.3190.459301011%31%0.274
Geraldo Perdomo2892211511020.2340.3480.3841714214%18%0.261
Jeremy Pena290247901020.2390.3090.447261318%23%0.27
Heliot Ramos291221474990.2230.3050.44271129%25%0.254
Maikol Escotto29220599920.2260.3240.3771715311%28%0.296
Manuel Margot293271598950.2530.3210.392162359%16%0.279
Gabriel Arias2942214981040.2590.3230.43521518%23%0.311
Joey Wendle2953215301000.2680.3170.424181536%21%0.319
Jake Meyers296261441990.2420.3110.429231118%25%0.29
J.D. Orr29725533850.2480.3350.324626511%20%0.314
Cal Stevenson298251135980.2310.3540.3561314215%20%0.276
Joshua Mears29921486980.1920.2990.447339311%35%0.244
Jesus Aguilar3003216611070.2460.330.437230010%23%0.285

 


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The Author

Ross Jensen

Ross Jensen

Ross has been a passionate fantasy baseball player and League Manager for over a decade. Ross's approach is to build league powers through hunting down talented minor leaguers and targeting players on the verge of breakout based on a variety of metrics, statistical analysis, and assumptions.

2 Comments

  1. John Vaghi
    March 30, 2022 at 7:25 am

    Some of the best content in the industry! awesome stuff guys

    • April 4, 2022 at 10:39 am

      Thanks a lot John, we sure appreciate it!

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