The Top 50 Dynasty League Third Basemen
The theme continues as we make our way to the final infield position – the right side of the infield is getting weaker from a fantasy perspective, as the left side of the infield is getting stronger. With Miguel Cabrera and Manny Machado joining the ranks, along with breakouts from Chase Headley, Will Middlebrooks, Todd Frazier and others, the third base position is primed for a run of quality and depth that hasn’t been seen in a long time. Even the top-10 only has three members over 30 years old (and David Wright just turned 30 last month).
The trend continues on the minor league side of the equation, as six out of my top 50 prospects are third basemen. This includes potential high-end talent in Rendon, Castellanos, Sano, Olt and more. In addition to that, there’s a whole wave of SS prospects that are unlikely to stick at the position long-term, and may end up at the hot corner. In fact, it’s not a stretch to say that four to five more top-50 prospects have the potential to end up at the position.
I think we’re pretty close to a renaissance for the position, and the biggest difference between the growth at shortstop and third base is that the revolution isn’t just approaching on the horizon, it’s here now. The position is deep and getting deeper, although it’s still impossible to touch the guy at the top.
And now your top 50 dynasty league third basemen, with commentary:
#1 – Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
It didn’t take the Triple Crown to tell you this one was a no brainer. There’s a valid argument that he’s the #1 player in fantasy today (though you’ll get opposition from the Trout and Braun contingents), and the only risk with Miggy is when he loses the 3B eligibility – though my guess is he maintains it through the 2014 fantasy season. But in the end, it doesn’t really matter.
#2 – Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
#3 – Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
#4 – David Wright, New York Mets
You wouldn’t get a huge argument from me if you arranged these next three guys in a different order, but Longoria’s youth rules out here. It’s not unreasonable to point out that I docked Tulowitzki for not being able to stay healthy, but am keeping Longoria above two other elite performers at the position – however, since Longoria came up to the majors in 2008, he’s played fewer games than Tulowitzki only once (11 fewer games in 2011). Beltre is a reliable stud, but he’s also going to turn 34 during the first week of the season and this party won’t continue on forever. I do, however, like it to continue for at least another few years – which is why he’s barely ahead of David Wright. The concerns with Wright are with how much he’ll steal as he ages, as he’s a different player when he’s stealing 25 bases than he is when he’s stealing 10-15. It will be very interesting to see where Wright’s strikeout rate settles in 2013, as he was constantly in the 16-17% range from 2004 to 2008, in the 21-24% range from 2009 to 2011 and back down to 16.6% in 2012. He’ll need to keep it there if he wants to be a .300 hitter going forward.
#5 – Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
Yes, this is aggressive, but Machado is going to be a star and soon. Possibly even as soon as 2013. He’s going to play the first half of the 2013 at the age of 20 and, although Mike Trout and Bryce Harper have ruined prospects for us forever, I expect him to build on his 200+ PA trial from this past season. In his prime, this should be a plus average, plus-plus power hitter with a very real shot at gaining SS eligibility within the next two seasons. On top of that, he’s fully capable of stealing 15-20 bases annually during the first half of his career. If he were SS eligible now, I’d rank him just above Jurickson Profar.
#6 – Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
I had to do a bit of a double take when I saw that Zimmerman will still play all but the last week of the 2013 season at the age of 28. His overall line for 2012 masks how good he was in the second half, when he hit .319/.381/.564 with 17 HR and 55 RBI in 298 AB. Despite the improved performance, his shoulder continued to be an issue throughout the season, and he had surgery after the post-season to repair the AC joint in his right shoulder. When healthy, Zimm can provide near-elite production.
#7 – Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants
Kung Fu Panda is a really valuable player when he’s hitting over .300 and puts up more than 20 HR. When he’s not doing either of those things, he’s a disappointment, as he’s not one to put up monster counting stats and he doesn’t steal bases. And as much as his home park plays against hitters, Sandoval (amazingly) had a .874 OPS at home and .718 mark on the road in 2012. I think Sandoval builds off his World Series MVP and re-establishes himself as a great fantasy option at 3B this season.
#8 – Brett Lawrie, Toronto Blue Jays
The hype was out of control with Lawrie during the 2012 pre-season, but the skills are still there which got everyone excited in the first place – we just need to keep it toned down this time. The now 23-year old, still has 20/20 potential, it just might take an extra year to get there. As part of that stacked-on-paper Blue Jays lineup, Lawrie could amazingly be undervalued heading into the 2013 season.
#9 – Aramis Ramirez, Milwaukee Brewers
I just recently wrote about what fantasy owners should do about Aramis Ramirez here, but the short answer is “hold onto him and enjoy the production”. He may be 34 years old, but he shows little sign of slowing down. His average season over the past ten years has been .294 with 28 HR and 98 RBI – and he’s been just as good, if not better, over the last two (.303, 27 HR, 99 RBI). The injury risk is also a little overblown, as Ramirez has only been on the DL twice in the last five seasons.
#10 – Chase Headley, San Diego Padres
My feelings about Headley can best be explained using a Venn diagram. This Venn diagram to be exact:
#11 – Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals
#12 – Nick Castellanos, Detroit Tigers
#13 – Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins
#14 – Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals
#15 – Will Middlebrooks, Boston Red Sox
#16 – Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds
This is where you really feel the depth at the 3B position. Both Middlebrooks and Moustakas will be 24 on Opening Day, which sets them a little apart from Frazier (who will be 27), even though Frazier had the better 2012 season. All three of these guys have the ability to hit for 25-30 HR power with reasonable batting averages – and if there wasn’t a glut of high-end guys in front of them, they’d be much bigger deals. I give Moustakas the slight nod because I think he has the most power potential of the group.
#17 – Martin Prado, Atlanta Braves
Prado falls victim to some positional fallout here, as his steady value is overshadowed by both the depth and upside of the 3B position in general – similarly to the next name on this list. I don’t see any reason why Prado will not continue as a .300 hitter with double digit power and a handful of steals – it would just be much more valuable if he were to gain 2B eligibility.
#18 – Mike Olt, Texas Rangers
#19 – David Freese, St Louis Cardinals
Freese is a great example of why you just can’t regress a player’s BABIP to some sort of league average. In parts of four major league seasons, Freese has never had a BABIP lower than his 2012 level of .352 – his career rate is .359. The reason he is not higher on this list is two-fold. First, he has a very checkered injury past. His 144 games played in 2012 was a career high, and he played in only 253 games over the last three seasons (including the minors). Secondly, as a solid (but not amazing) option at the position, he similarly falls prey to positional depth, like Martin Prado before him.
#20 – Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates
#21 – Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners
Just a pair of 25 year olds trying to make it in a tough position. Alvarez’s 30 HR power that he showed in 2012 is legit and repeatable, but the average will never make him a high quality option at 3B. It’s just tough to hit higher than around .240-.250 if you’re striking out over 30% of the time. Seager’s game is more about all-around production, and should benefit from the off-season dimension altering at Safeco. He’s also got more room for growth in the batting average department, making him a potential .270-15-15 player going forward.
#22 – Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
#23 – Kaleb Cowart, Los Angeles Angels
#24 – Matt Davidson, Arizona Diamondbacks
#25 – Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
#26 – Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Yes, the hip. And yes, the age. And yes, the down performance. And yes, the playoff benching. Even with all of those things in the equation, I still believe A-Rod still has some good performance left in him. Before he was hit by a Felix Hernandez pitch on July 24, he was hitting .276/.358/.449 with 15 HR and 11 SB in 400 PA. If he can come back healthy from his hip surgery (whenever that is), he could provide underrated production if everyone thinks he’s just flat out done.
#27 – Chris Nelson, Colorado Rockies
If I told you that there was a former first round pick heading into his age-27 season and coming off a year where he quietly hit .324/.363/.504 with 9 HR, 46 RBI and 41 R in 272 AB from June 1 to the end of the year, you’d listen, right? And if he could be had cheaply, played at Coors Field and also carried 2B eligibility? Even though Nelson’s BABIP was pretty unsustainable, he could hit .280-.290 with 20 HR power in 2013.
#28 – Richie Shaffer, Tampa Bay Rays
#29 – Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers
#30 – Kevin Youkilis, New York Yankees
#31 – Michael Young, Philadelphia Phillies
Just two old guys looking to bounce back. It’s like the start of a really bad CBS sitcom. Youkilis hasn’t hit 20 HR since 2009, but it’s mostly because of playing time issues (he hasn’t played more than 122 games since 2009 either). When he’s playing, he can still be productive, but you’ll need a capable backup. And as far as Young goes, the difference between a below-average and above-average Michael Young season usually comes down to BABIP. A swing back in the direction of positive luck could make Young look more like the 2011 version than the 2012 version this season, so don’t leave him for dead yet.
#32 – Jeimer Candelario, Chicago Cubs
#33 – Lonnie Chisenhall, Cleveland Indians
Still only 24 years old, Chisenhall hasn’t exactly ingratiated himself with Indians fans so far in his career, but hasn’t embarrassed himself either (.260 with 12 HR in 109 career games). The talent that made him a two time top-50 prospect in baseball (by Baseball America) is still there. He’s a worthy flier.
#34 – Trevor Plouffe, Minnesota Twins
The power is pretty legit with Plouffe, but unfortunately, so is the batting average risk. The biggest problem going forward is the fact that he’s now lost his SS eligibility – making him a much less interesting asset (though it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could get it back in-season).
#35 – Wilmer Flores, New York Mets
#36 – Cheslor Cuthbert, Kansas City Royals
#37 – Rio Ruiz, Houston Astros
One of my favorite final cuts from the Top-150, Ruiz carries upside everywhere with the bat, but he has some injury risk and he’s very young/raw. Definitely a potential breakout candidate for 2013 (or even 2014).
#38 – Juan Francisco, Atlanta Braves
#39 – Chris Johnson, Atlanta Braves
Juan Francisco may have the first crack at the Braves 3B job, but with his power comes severe contact issues. Chris Johnson is a better player than people give him credit for, and for his career has been decidedly average (100 wRC+ and 102 OPS+, with 100 being league average in both cases). He’s the perfect replacement-level player in a 14-16 team mixed format when he has a job — which may be soon if Francisco strikes out in 34% of his at bats like he did in 2012.
#40 – Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics
After returning to the A’s lineup on August 14th, Donaldson quietly hit .290/.356/.489 with 8 HR, 26 RBI and 3 SB in 176 AB. It’s tough to trust September stats all that much, but if you’re looking for a cheap flier who could bust out, Donaldson is as good as any.
#41 – Tyler Goeddel, Tampa Bay Rays
#42 – Stefen Romero, Seattle Mariners
#43 – Alberto Callaspo, Los Angeles Angels
#44 – Matt Dominguez, Houston Astros
#45 – Josh Vitters, Chicago Cubs
Raise your hand if you were a first round pick in the MLB draft! Now raise your hand if you have a career OPS+ greater than 10. You can put your hand down now, Josh.
#46 – Eric Chavez, Arizona Diamondbacks
Clearly, I’m not very confident in Chavez staying healthy with no DH position to fall back on. Plus, he appears to have lost his job to Martin Prado anyway.
#47 – Jordan Pacheco, Colorado Rockies
#48 – Stephen Piscotty, St Louis Cardinals
#49 – Scott Rolen, Cincinnati Reds
#50 – Placido Polanco, Philadelphia Phillies
Let’s be honest, you weren’t sure if either of these guys were retired either.
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19 Comments
I’m pretty much 90% sure Castellanos has been moved to the outfield.
I ranked him at 3B because that’s both where he’s eligible and where I think he ends up long-term. They may get him playing time in the OF this year if they call him up, but the Tigers would be insane to keep playing Miggy at 3B after V-Mart is gone following the 2014 season (at the latest).
Where’s Jedd Gyorko?
He’s on the 2B list.
Castellanos is not going to be back at 3B until Miggy moves off. Additionally, Castellanos is not a plus defender at 3B. He’s clearly not as bad as Miggy, but I don’t see them moving Cabrera off 3B for a significantly inferior bat and only a moderate defensive improvement. Also, Castellanos was a bit over-matched at AA. He’s still quite young and really I don’t see him being a significant offensive contributor for at least another 1.5 years. He will be good, but the idea that he will supplant Miggy at 3B and force Price to DH, by next year is way overstated.
Also, the idea the Machado would rank about Profar is laughable. He’s not only about half a year older than Profar, he’s never even posted a better line than Profar at any minor league level. Profar’s been better at every stop and he’s done it while significantly younger. Machado has never displayed plus-plus power at any minor league level. This is just a crazy overstatement of his talent. He’s a talented player that may have a few 25+ hr seasons in him, but that is quite a few years away in his prime. I think a very optimistic season for him this year would be .270+ average and 15-18 hr and 15-20 steals.
Derp is right.
To clarify, I mean to say Derp chose his name correctly because his reasoning is giving me Karsten’sFace. All Bret was saying was that by the time V-Mart’s contract is up, it’s reasonable to expect that Castellanos’ bat will be ready and that he’s more valuable to the Tigers at 3B, thus allowing Prince and Cabrera to share 1B/DH. This would help their lineup AND their defense because they would have a hole at DH (once V-Mart leaves) and since Cabrera is awful at 3B, Castellanos would be an improvement there. It’s not “forcing” Prince to DH or “supplanting” Miggy at third. It’s called optimizing your offense and your defense.
I’m not sure anyone said Castellanos was a plus defender but even if he was merely “below-average” he’d be better than Cabrera. That said, he’s also 20, which means he has time to improve and he had shown improvement in the minors. He should be no less than an average third baseman in time, given that he was a shortstop when he was drafted and while he didn’t have the range for that position he had the arm and his range is adequate enough at third.
Yes, Castellanos was definitely overmatched at Double-A in his first crack at it at age 20. I’m going to go ahead and say he’s got a chance at adjusting and improving during the 2013 season in a way that makes it conceivable he could play in the majors at some point in 2014. I’m not saying it’s a definite, but it is a possibility and one that isn’t so far-fetched, especially given how aggressive the Tigers are in promoting their prospects.
And now to Machado – which is where this comment got super derpy. His comment re: Machado over Profar (as I understood) pertained to where he’d rank them for 2013 and beyond. That INCLUDES 2013. Because, y’know, Machado is going to be in the majors all year while the Rangers have said that if Profar isn’t going to play regularly, he’ll be in Triple-A. It’s not necessarily implying that Machado is better than Profar as a player/prospect in general.
Additionally, I’m not sure what you mean by saying that Machado has never displayed plus-plus power at a minor league level? Do you mean statistically? Cause that’s not how scouting power works. Otherwise you’d think Darin Ruf has plus-plus power. He’s been young for his league every step of the way and is still filling out a lanky frame, which affects power output. Is a plus-plus ranking of it probably aggressive? Yes. Is it baseless? No. Its fine to disagree and all, but to say it’s a crazy overstatement of his talent is a crazy overstatement in and of itself. He’s a supremely talented player and was considered to be in lock and step with Profar as recently as 12 months ago (he often ranked above Profar). After a season where he was fine in Double-A and survived the majors (739 OPS) at age 20 (only 7 months older than Profar), knocking him doesn’t seem reasonable.
What he said. I mean, seriously, I was going to craft a response but it would look almost exactly like that.
And for the record, I think Castellanos can be average at 3B defensively (I never said plus), will possibly be ready for the bigs as early as the 2nd half of 2013 and the Tigers would be insane to play both Miggy and Prince at the corners into their 30’s.
Hmm, pretty overly combative and snide response for someone who wrote “Its fine to disagree and all…” I’m pretty sure nothing I wrote merited seething condescension.
Ok, going back and re-reading his Castellanos comment, you’re correct, he wrote after 2014. I have no problem admitting I misread that and interpreted it to mean for the 2014 season. I quite well understand the concept of optimization, having a background in engineering, thanks. However, given my incorrect interpretation of his stated timeline, I don’t think what I wrote was incorrect. Having re-read it, I don’t disagree with his timeline nor his assumed defensive changes.
Everything else you wrote is very similar to what I wrote. You’re arguing against things I didn’t say.
I wrote, “Also, Castellanos was a bit over-matched at AA. He’s still quite young and really I don’t see him being a significant offensive contributor for at least another 1.5 years. He will be good …”
You wrote, “Yes, Castellanos was definitely overmatched at Double-A in his first crack at it at age 20. I’m going to go ahead and say he’s got a chance at adjusting and improving during the 2013 season in a way that makes it conceivable he could play in the majors at some point in 2014. I’m not saying it’s a definite, but it is a possibility and one that isn’t so far-fetched, especially given how aggressive the Tigers are in promoting their prospects.”
Playing at some point in 2014 is about 1.5 years. You’re right, the Tigers are aggressive and that’s why we both estimated that he might get playing time in 2014. The only significant difference in what we wrote was my misreading of Brett’s assumed promotion timeline and your overreaction to my misreading.
Also, let’s not indulge in the canard of, “he was a shortstop when he was drafted…” Lots of players who have no business at SS were drafted there. Mike Morse was drafted at shortstop. Obviously, Castellanos is much, much, much better defensively, than Morse, but saying someone was drafted at shortstop is not much of an argument.
Ok, on to the Machado/Profar argument. Yes, you’re correctly explaining to me what “dynasty” refers to. However, I would argue that when weighing 2013 vs all of the other years in the future, 2013 is probably not more valuable than all of the other years in the future. If this were a 2013 only list, I would agree with you regarding their playing time and Machado ranking ahead of Profar for 2013 only, if both had SS eligibility, which neither of them have for 2013 by the way. You’re kind of making my argument for me by telling me “where he’d rank them for 2013 and beyond. That INCLUDES 2013.” To me, ‘beyond’ probably includes more years in it than 2013 and is therefore, in my opinion, something that was not adequately taken into account when saying Machado would rank ahead of Profar at SS.
I’m also, aware that power on the 20-80 scouting scale is not simply measured in slugging percentage or isolated power. I’ve never read anything by any scout that has seen Machado describe him as having plus-plus power. How many minor leaguers would you say have plus-plus power? A small handful? Machado is absolutely not a 70-80 power. I’m sorry, but that is baseless. Do you think Machado and Miguel Sano have similar power profiles? Sano is a 70-80 power bat. Machado is absolutely not. Also, we both know that 7 months is not viewed as an insignificant age difference by scouts. I’m not saying it’s a crucial difference, but it is important.
The rest of what you wrote is arguing against things I never wrote. I didn’t knock Machado at all. I simply wrote that he has been older than Profar at every level and underperformed him. Saying he underperformed the best position player prospect in baseball isn’t much of a knock.
Yeah I agree it was a bit combative and I apologize for that tone, but there’s a few things here. You call me out a few times for making arguments for you that you didn’t make, when your original post was full of the same strawman’s you’re accusing me of. To whit:
Re: Tone – I’d go ahead and re-read your own initial response to Bret and check the tone in that one. I will admit to a poor and improper tone, but I was responding to one as well. That’s not an excuse for mine. I was wrong. But it is a reason.
Re: overmatched – I was agreeing with you and taking it a step further. Not making up something that you said. Yes, the difference was my reiterating the original point whereas yours was not understanding it. I wasn’t “arguing against something you didn’t say” – I was clarifying what Bret was saying since you didn’t understand it, as you just admitted.
Re: SS’s when drafted – the point of that is to say he was a legitimate athlete. As was Morse who played over 500 games at shortstop in the minors. I ALSO expanded to say that his range wasn’t good enough for SS but more than adequate for 3B. I didn’t write that for my health. THAT WAS SPECIFICALLY NOT INDULGING IN A CANARD (meant for emphasis, not for yelling. Would italicize given the option).
Re: Machado/Profar – You aren’t understanding my point and that’s probably my fault for not making it well at all. I meant to say that given that Machado and Profar aren’t worlds apart talent wise, factoring in 2013 and a full season of at-bats is a legitimate reason to rank Machado above Profar (at least to me). If you want to disagree with that, that’s fine (I swear) but you said it was a “crazy overstatement of his ability” which seems insane to me given that most publications had Machado above Profar not 12 months ago. I wasn’t ignoring the “beyond” part or at ALL saying 2013 had more weight than all the other years (who is making up arguments for who now?). All I was saying was that given their comparable profiles, 2013 probably weighed in a substantial amount when Bret made that statement.
Re: plus-plus power: I already said I agreed that Machado didn’t have it. I just said it’s not ridiculous to say he could in his prime, 7 years from now. It’s a difference of opinion again. Not a “crazy overstatement of his ability”.
Re: 7 months not being a big difference in age – I agree it’s not nothing but you wrote “significantly younger”. I’m going to go on the record as saying 7 months is not significantly younger. They’d qualify as (freakish) Irish twins. It’s confusing that you say it’s not a crucial difference but it is significant.
Re: Me saying things you never wrote – I pretty much responded to your paragraph in a detailed way. If you want to point out more things I wrote that you said but didn’t I will absolutely apologize for them because it was not my intent to misquote you or misattribute your sentiments, but merely to disagree.
Also, I take it as a point of pride to be called condescending by someone who starts a paragraph referring to something someone else wrote as “laughable”. Yeah, nothing warranted my tone at all…
Fair enough. You’re right, I was a bit pushy in that first comment and I really did not at all intend to be. Upon re-reading it, your point of using “laughable” is well taken. I apologize for that and when I was writing it, I really didn’t intend for it to come off that way. Bad word choice, I was just taken aback by his comment. That being said, I made one over-the-top and unnecessary comment. Your response was riddled with them and they were quite a bit more strongly phrased.
It seems to me, that almost everything we wrote about actual baseball, we more or less wrote the same if not very similar things and misunderstood each other.
When referring to Machado’s “talent” and “crazy overstatement of his ability,” I was referring only to the discussion “plus-plus power”. I think very highly of him, but I strongly disagree with his take on Machado’s power. I also originally wrote that during his prime he could be a 25+ hr guy.
“He’s a talented player that may have a few 25+ hr seasons in him, but that is quite a few years away in his prime.”
My point on the rankings is that it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me to, on one hand, acknowledge ranking Machado 5th is aggressive because of projection and what we think he will grow into in future seasons and on the other hand say he should be ranked ahead of Profar at SS just because he will get more PAs in 2013. This seems to me to be somewhat of a question of career WAR. Profar or Machado? I pick Profar and although, it’s not a blowout, I don’t stress over that pick. That’s just my take.
Significantly younger from a scouting perspective; not real-life “Irish twins” perspective, ha. To clarify, I’m saying the difference in their age is significant enough to take into account, but not crucial enough to hold it drastically against Machado. If it was a year or a year and a half age difference I think we would agree it would be very significant, as it would be a lot closer to age appropriate for the minor league level?
Fair enough. I disagree that my comments were “riddled with them” as much as a) I like typing derp, b) I really wanted to say Karsten’sFace but your point is well met. I mean that legitimately. Apologies all around.
I guess I misunderstood your use of crazy overstatement of his ability. I apologize for the mischaracterizations thereafter.
I guess I just don’t see that much of a distinction in regards to the issue in your 5th ‘graph. I think an aggressive ranking of Machado goes hand in hand with a ranking over Profar. I also think there’s the potential to misunderstand what Bret is doing here. That’s ranking for fantasy. It’s not a question of WAR (which includes defensive stats), it’s a question of fantasy output. I don’t think it’s inconceivable to think that Machado could be the more valuable fantasy player between the two (if they played the some position). If we’re talking overall value, I agree and I imagine Bret would as well (though he can chime in on his own) – but these rankings are for fantasy. And again, I think given their fairly competitive offensive games going forward, the accumulation of a full year’s stats at the front end does factor in – at least for me.
As to their age difference – I still think it’s just not that huge a difference. I agree it can factor in, but phrasing it as “significantly younger” seems slightly (and not intentionally) dishonest to me. You say it’s not crucial enough to hold it “drastically” against Machado. That’s fair, but where age generally matters in prospects is in the near term development. When we’re talking about these guys’ whole career and their respective values, 7 months is hardly a major factor given their polish and proximity to the majors. I don’t see the point in making a distinction between the two in this particular discussion with these two particular players. But that just may be a point we disagree on.
Chris Nelson might be the favorite to win the starting 3B job in Colorado but Jordan Pacheco is the only one with any fantasy value and will at least cut in to Nelson’s playing time.
On the list of positions that Plouffe can play, SS would rank behind corner outfield and 2B so I really don’t see any chance that he moves back to the position, despite the fact that the Twins have no one else. I still think Plouffe deserves to be in the top 25 with guaranteed at-bats and a real potential to hit 30 HR if he stays healthy.
What fantasy value does Pacheco have? He’s some average and nothing else. He’s also awful defensively, so I can’t imagine him getting very much PT. He could be a nice deep league play if he gets his C eligibility, but without that, no thanks. Nelson at least has some pop.
With Plouffe, I think .250 with 25 HR is his absolute upside – and there’s a very real chance that his power regresses to a more reasonable level based on his ML track record. That’s just not a very interesting player for me with the depth accumulating at the position.
Plouffe went through some really serious struggles last year with his early-season slump and his injury and was never able to get thing going in the second half like he did in the Month of June when he hit 11 home runs. You can’t really believe that last year is the best he can possibly do when he was injured and learning a new position?
Maybe he wasn’t able to get going in the 2nd half because his first half wasn’t his true talent level and pitchers started to figure him out.
Is it impossible that he’s a 30 HR hitter going forward? No, but I’m certainly not on the side that thinks he is.
Pacheco has C eligibility in Yahoo leagues I think. Started 5 games there last year.
So what time can we expect today’s portion of the OF list to be posted? I’ve been anxiously waiting all weekend. 🙂