2024 Dynasty Baseball RankingsUncategorized

Mid-Year Ranks: 3B Risers, Fallers and The Next Big Thing

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Alec Bohm #28 of the Philadelphia Phillies (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
Alec Bohm #28 of the Philadelphia Phillies (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

Now that we’re halfway through the season, it’s time for our Annual Mid-Year Rankings.  To accompany the positional rankings, which are posted on the TDG website, we’ll feature some risers and fallers, and one writer will highlight The Next Big Thing for each position.

Enjoy and feel free to let us know what you think in the comments down below, find us on Twitter/X, or better yet, join our Discord!

Riser: Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies (Preseason rank: 19, Mid-Year rank: 7)

Perhaps Alec Bohm was overlooked in our preseason rankings.  After putting up a season with 20 homers and 171 combined runs and RBI, Bohm just slipped into our Top 20 third basemen.  After the first half of the 2024 season, he is not overlooked anymore.
Bohm has announced his presence to dynasty managers with authority.  Over his first 462 plate appearances, he has put up a 130 wRC+.  His counting numbers are divine with 125 R+RBI, 39 doubles, and he has chipped in five steals.  Admittedly, his homerun total of 11 round-trippers still leaves a little to be desired.
What’s interesting is that he has only slightly increased his isolated power (by .020) and his plate-discipline numbers (approximately one-percent improvement in both walk rate and strikeout rate).  Those are the numbers that I usually look at when I am examining a potential breakout.
Instead, in Bohm’s case, we need to look at his Savant page to see where he has made his gains.  He has improved his barrel rate by about two percent and his hard-hit rate by about five and a half percent.  While he has not significantly improved his strikeout rate, what he has significantly improved is his chase rate by over four percent.
Additionally, Bohm has honed in on punishing the pitches he sees the most.  His batting average on fastballs (which he sees 60% of the time) has improved by 20 points and his slugging percentage by just over 60 points.  He has made even greater gains against breaking pitches, which he sees 30 percent of the time.  It is notable that he has done significantly worse against off-speed pitches this season, but he only sees them a shade under 10% of the time.
Overall, Bohm has established himself as a consistent middle-of-the-order presence on one of baseball’s best teams and that is great for dynasty managers.  It is unlikely that Bohm is ever going to put up gaudy home run numbers, but if he can continue to be a doubles machine with men in scoring position, he will be a real asset on any dynasty team.  Steady contributors in the early part of their physical prime are key cogs in any championship team and Bohm fits the bill.
Double R (@TheRotoRed)

Faller: Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals (Preseason rank: 15, Mid-Year rank: 11)

Looking over our rankings, there were no fallers that truly stuck out.  However, it felt like Arenado has taken the biggest hit in the dynasty community.  In our preseason rankings, here is what Chris Knock wrote:  “Nolan Arenado is entering his age-33 year, which is not too old to roster, but his numbers are decreasing and in 2023 he had career-high in ground balls, career low in fly balls, and pulled the ball more than ever. It could be that he’s pressing, but 26 home runs and 93 runs batted in are more than respectable.”
Half a season later, it appears that Arenado is not pressing, but instead in the twilight of his career.  The ground ball rate is just as high as last year and his flyball rate is even lower.  He is on pace for about 17 home runs and 75 RBI, which would both mark a career low for the second consecutive season.  His wRC+ of 102 would also be a career low.
Arenado is simply not hitting the ball with authority this season.  His average exit velocity is in the bottom 6% of the league and his hard-hit percentage is in the bottom 9%.  His barrel percentage is also at the bottom of the league.  As a positive, he has done a great job at limiting his strikeouts, but again, is doing very little with those additional batted ball events.
The Cardinals offense as a whole has been disappointing, and Arenado should take his fair share of the blame.  Perhaps we will find out after the season that Arenado has been playing hurt all year.  To me, this is signaling the end of Arenado’s status as an elite dynasty contributor.  It has been a wonderful run, but if I was rostering Arenado in a dynasty league, I would be looking for the next guy.

Double R (@TheRotoRed)

The Next Big Thing: Coby Mayo, Baltimore Orioles (Mid-Season Rank: 11)

Any article about The Next Big Thing at third base must begin with a disclaimer. Devers, Ramirez and Riley are going to continue to be Big Things for the next few years, and Junior Caminero is still the heir apparent.  So with all that said, and assuming not many readers are playing in four team leagues so you’ll be looking beyond those four, Coby Mayo is knocking on the door ready to be the third baseman everyone will want to roster. After all, there’s a reason that Baltimore didn’t move him at this year’s deadline, even before Jordan Westburg got hurt.

Mayo was a fourth round draft pick in the 2020 draft and passed on his commitment to the University of Florida to sign with the Orioles.  Since then, he’s shown massive power, with a raw power grade of 65, which has recently been increased to 70.  Over his four years in the minors, his slash line has been a cumulative .286/.384/.545, which includes a .301/.375/.586 in Triple A this year.

We’ve all known that he can mash, but it’s also important to note that he doesn’t sell out for power. His maturity at the plate is exhibited by walk rates over 10% and strike out rates under 25% the past two years. In Triple A the past two years, he’s had a 25% chase rate, which is low, and a 82% Zone contact rate, which is slightly above average.  Put that all together and you get a power hitting third baseman with above average contact skills and good knowledge of the strike zone.  That will play even in Camden Yards.  He may lose a couple home runs to that deep left field wall, but the way he pulls with power, there won’t be too many fly balls dying on the warning track.

And speaking of playing, Mayo has a rocket for an arm, which doesn’t count in fantasy but assures managers that he’s likely to stay at third base, even as the Orioles run out of places to play all their talented youngsters. Third base is going to have a lot of talent at the top of the ranks for the next several years, so managers may be faced with choices during start up drafts and trade season, don’t let Mayo get lost in that crowd.

Drew Klein (@aok_fan)

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Drew Klein

Drew Klein

Lover of all things baseball and determined to keep the fan in fantasy.

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