TDG Roundtable: FYPD 1st round mock
Every week on Fridays/whenever we get to them, our writers here at The Dynasty Guru will be bringing you some quick hit musings about a particular topic so you, the reader, can get a blast of info from a bunch of different writers with some passionate opinions. This week’s roundtable topic is a mock first round for a 2021 FYPD.
1.1 Ken: 1B Spencer Torkelson, 3B (DET)
I have Torkelson as the best player in the draft by a wide margin. His easy plus power to all fields stands out and at 6’1” 220 lbs he’s plenty strong, so he doesn’t have to sell out to drive the ball either. The hit tool is also plus and he has strong plate discipline, so there should still be strong batting averages even if he’s shifted on. The only downside to his fantasy game is Tork won’t run much, and with his build, I’d expect him to slow down even more in his mid-twenties. The bat is what you want here, and as high of a ceiling he has, the floor is equally high. This is a great year to have the 1-1 pick in your dynasty FYPD.
1.2 Keaton: Austin Martin, SS/OF (TOR)
Probably the best hit tool in the class, Martin makes consistent contact with a nice compact swing that will generate enough power to do damage in fantasy. He has enough speed to make a difference in steals as well, which with his ability to get on base should be a nice cherry on top of the overall profile. Martin has the skills to be an OBP monster at the top of a major league line up and with a nice touch of speed added to it, he was a relatively easy choice for me at #2 here.
1.3 Brett: Asa Lacy, SP (KC)
With such a talented draft, coming to this selection was not easy. What really sells me on Lacy is that he has three pitches that project to be 60-grade pitches. Those three pitches are his fastball, slider, and changeup. He also features a curveball that projects to be an above-average pitch. In my opinion, Asa shouldn’t fall past five in any drafts. The only concern I have with Asa is his control. If he can control his pitches then watch out. His Twitter handle might be prophetic.
1.4 Andrew: Zac Veen, OF (COL)
I was granted the opportunity to draft out of the four-hole in the Dynasty Guru 2020 FYPD mock draft. After the selections of Torkelson, Martin, and Lacy, my thought process instantly sprung to making a decision between the New Mexico State University star second basemen Nick Gonzales or the 18-year-old prep outfielder, Zac Veen.
After some deliberation, I decided to chase the upside and selected Zac Veen over the “safer” prospect in Gonzales. At 6’4” and 200 pounds, the Florida-commit agreed to an above-slot signing bonus (#9 overall) of five million dollars with the Colorado Rockies. With an athletic frame and a swing that creates a ton of leverage, it is easy to envision a future scenario where Veen hits in the heart of the Colorado order and terrorizes the NL West for years to come.
1.5 Taylor: Nick Gonzales, 2B (PIT)
I felt pretty darn good about picking up Gonzales in the five-slot here. Taken by the Pirates with the seventh pick in this year’s draft, he has a quick, pretty swing and while I don’t think the homers will come in bunches, he does have the natural ability to drive the ball to all fields. He also has decent speed, and to me seems like a consistent 15 HR/15 SB middle infielder, someone I wouldn’t mind having on a dynasty team in almost any format. I considered Hancock here as well, but at this point in the draft, I felt it safer to take a more polished college bat than gamble on the pitching upside.
1.6 Phil: Emerson Hancock, RHP (SEA)
A 6’4”, 215 lbs righthander hailing from the great state of Georgia, Emerson Hancock was originally drafted in the 38th round in 2017 before deciding to attend the University of Georgia. After a fine college career, Hancock was chosen sixth overall by the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners have taken collegiate pitchers in the first round of the past two drafts as well (popular dynasty assets George Kirby and Logan Gilbert) so one can see a theme.
The M’s love their college pitchers and Hancock will most likely be the best of the bunch. During his sophomore season (2019) Hancock started 14 games, earned eight wins, with an ERA of 1.99, 0.841 WHIP, a strikeout rate of 9.7 and a strikeout-walk (K/BB) rate of 5.39. Before 2020 he was in the discussion for first overall pick, then Covid happened and Hancock started only four games before the season prematurely ended. Here are his stats for those four games:
- Richmond: 4.0 Innings Pitched (IP), 6 Earned Runs (ER), 4 strikeouts (K)
- Georgia Tech: 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
- UMass: 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
- Santa Clara: 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
The shortened season never allowed Hancock to improve upon those two bad starts, and the Mariners took full advantage of him dropping in the draft. Hancock throws four pitches, a fastball, slider, changeup and curveball and shows good control and command (he hit a growth spurt later, so learned to pitch first). His ceiling is that of a frontline starter and he should get there sooner than later.
1.7 Joe Drake: Max Meyer, RHP (MIA)
Even though this mock is just for fun, I was stoked to get Max Meyer at 7th overall. Miami Max sliced and diced the Big Ten for 2.5 years (2.13 ERA in 148 IP w/ 187 Ks) before being selected 3rd overall by the Marlins this past June. He brings a truly electric — and MLB-ready — fastball/slider combo to the mound along with a changeup that’s closer to average. The fastball sits 96MPH and touches the upper 90s and the slider, which features sharp, 2-plane movement, comes in right around 90. Meyer’s an analytical darling, too, with his big-time extension (over 6 ½ feet), high-spin fastball (2500+ RPMs), and slider (2700+ RPMs). Don’t overlook his 6-foot frame, either. That, combined with his excellent extension, pairs up perfectly to produce a beautifully flat vertical approach angle on a high-90s fastball that will dominate up in the zone. Meyer is exactly the type of pitcher I like to target in an FYPD: He’s got a high floor and an even higher ceiling. Meyer’s stuff is more than good enough to start and if the changeup takes a step forward, we could be looking at an impact frontline starter. If for whatever reason he needed to move to the bullpen, you could plug him in as an above-average high leverage guy right away with an elite closer type of ceiling. Either way, you’re likely coming up roses here.
1.8 Greg: Garrett Mitchell, OF (MIL)
With the 8th overall selection in the FYPD draft, I selected Brewers toolsy outfielder Garrett Mitchell. The UCLA product has some of the biggest upside of anyone in the draft, highlighted by his plus speed and above-average hit tools, and growing in-game power. Getting Mitchell in the back half of the first round can easily be a steal a year from now and with an ETA of 2022-23 he can be making an impact on your fantasy team sooner-than-later. I’m expecting his ADP in first-year player drafts to have a bit of a wider range than some others, but no matter what pick you use, drafting Mitchell is a wise decision.
1.9 Ben: Garrett Crochet, LHP (CWS)
Crochet was blowing 100 MPH fastballs past major league hitters before anyone else in his draft class even debuted in the minors. The White Sox called up the 6’6 southpaw for the end of the regular season and a brief playoff cameo, and in that time he threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings, struck out 10 of the 24 batters he faced, and didn’t allow a walk. He threw fastballs on 72 of his 85 pitches, and with an average velocity of 100.1, why not? His slider gives him a second potential plus pitch, and he throws a changeup as well.
Crochet comes with his share of risk. His MLB success came in an extremely small sample, and out of the bullpen. To succeed as a major-league starter, he’ll have to continue to hone his command and stay healthy, things he struggled with at times in college at Tennessee. But he’s got as much upside as any first-year pitching prospect, and his fast debut puts him a step ahead in my book.
1.10 Jordan: Ha-seong Kim, SS (KBO)
It’s rare an MLB ready shortstop in his prime is available outside the top five in a first-year player draft. Although I was tempted to take Heston Kjerstad or Reid Detmers here, I ultimately could not resist the allure of Ha-Seong Kim, the 25-year-old KBO (Korean Baseball Organization) star transitioning to the MLB this offseason. Clay Davenport produces peak major-league equivalent statistics for players who play in different leagues, like the KBO. By these measures, Kim’s KBO performance translates to around a .290/.370/.440 triple slash at peak. His KBO performance also suggests he could push for 20 homers and 20 stolen bases right away. ZiPS is even more bullish than Clay Davenport’s major league equivalencies, projecting him at .274/.343/.470 in 2021, with a 119 wRC+, 9% BB, 17% K, 23 HR, and 17 SB, pushing 4 WAR in a bit less than 600 PA. Dan Szymborski (ZiPS creator) suggests he should be a solid defensive shortstop as well. Don’t let this guy fall too far in your FYPD!
1.11 Jake: Austin Hendrick, OF (CIN)
Picked 12th overall by the Cincinnati Reds, Austin Hendrick looks like he could become a future all-star. Hailing from a cold-weather state, Hendrick is a true five-tool talent with just one major question: will his hit tool be good enough at the highest level? I’m banking on yes. Hendrick’s smooth lefty swing is not just pretty to look at; frankly, it’s ferocious. Baseball America says that Hendrick’s bat is, “the quickest bat speed in the class and complements it with light tower raw power.” While I don’t believe he has burner speed I’m confident his speed will allow for double-digit stolen bases. Overall this could end up being a .260-.270 hitter with 30+ home runs and 15 steals annually from a corner outfield spot. That player would easily be drafted in the first two rounds of a fantasy draft. Get Hendrick while you can.
1.12 Kyle: Reid Detmers, LHP LAA
Unless there is an automatic #1 overall worthy pitcher in the class, I tend to lean into the polished and lower-risk type of hurler. Detmers is 2020’s version of the “most polished pitcher in the draft class” and has one of the highest floors of all pitchers taken in the 1st round. I briefly considered (read: agonized for far too long) taking the risk on an upside play like Mick Abel, but in the end, the eye-popping strikeout totals for Detmers in his sophomore and junior seasons at Louisville pushed the needle over the edge. The fastball is only 91-94 right now, but it plays up from that due to a deceptive delivery and a devastating curveball he can throw from the same arm angle and slot. He is currently working on developing his circle change and adding a slider, and it’s reasonable to expect both to be average to above-average offerings sooner rather than later, given his feel for pitching.
Detmers had a K/9 of 13.3 in his junior year and was all the way up to 19.6 through the first four starts of 2020 before the season was canceled. The control and command he has with his two best offerings is fantastic (39 BB in his last 135 IP) and should lead to a quick ascension to the major leagues as Detmers is poised to churn through minor league bats like a hot knife through butter. You can chase the upside of younger high-velo arms in a FYPD if you want, but I’ll take a short minor league career with a high floor and a decent ceiling from my pitcher selections every day of the week.
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