GeneralThe Dynasty Guru Experts LeagueUncategorized

TDGX Draft Recap – Round Two

Welcome back to the second installment of the TDGX 2016 draft recap. With Opening Day less than two weeks away, we are going to pick up the pace and roll through the remainder of the draft in the next two weeks. We will also be recapping each week’s FAAB bidding, which begins with the first round of acquisitions next week, so stay tuned!

With the vast majority of the elite prospects coming off the board in the first 20 selections, the second round is where things started to get a little crazy with several veterans, a handful of closers getting snapped up, and Bret Sayre making four picks. Without any further delay, let’s dive into the picks. (George Bissell, Baseball Prospectus)  

2.1 – Daz Cameron, OF, Astros

Still being a year away, and knowing we were flush with prospects on the cusp of surfacing in the bigs it was important to add some high ceiling talent like Cameron. (Ralph Lifshitz, Razzball)

2.2 – Christian Arroyo, SS, Giants 

With our second choice, the decision started with some waiting. I had a list of players I would like, but with 19 other choices between their picks, the pickings slimmed quickly. When it got to our pick, two choices stood, the Giants Christian Arroyo and the Cubs Albert Almora. Both were similarly ranked in top 100 lists (around 85th), so I went to compare their offensive grades. Arroyo graded out better offensively, so he was the choice. (Jeff Zimmerman, FanGraphs)

2.3 – Kevin Newman, SS, Pirates

We were deciding between Pirates first-round shortstop, Kevin Newman and the Dodgers’ other young Cuban outfielder, Yusniel Diaz. The variance in opinions on Newman is about as wide as any prospect in the sport — we’ve seen him inside top 25 of prospect lists and off top 100’s entirely. Though the power is almost non-existent, few seem to deny his ability to stick at short long-term, put the bat-to-ball consistently and swipe a decent number of bags. With no clear long-term SS option in Pittsburgh, we like his chances of reaching the bigs quickly. He may get tagged with the dreaded “better IRL player than fantasy player” description, but for a league this deep where part-timers often round out starting lineups, Newman’s potential .300 bat with double digit steals will do just fine. (Tom Trudeau, MLB.com)

2.4 – Kolby Allard, LHP, Braves

My three primary targets that I was hoping would fall to me at number 24 (Willson Contreras, Austin Riley and Eddy Julio Martinez) were all long gone by the time my picked rolled around, leaving me with an extremely risky proposition in Kolby Allard. I felt Allard was the top prep arm available in the draft, so in that sense I’m happy to take him here, and I do feel he’s in an organization that knows what they are doing with young pitchers.  If things break right for Allard, he could be a nice trade chip as a top 25-50 prospect this time next year. If things on Allard break, this pick would have been better served by selecting Yusniel Diaz, who was my next option. (JJ Jansons, Baseball Prospectus/The Dynasty Guru)

2.5 – Cody Bellinger, 1B, Dodgers 

Allard interested us here, but J.J. took away that decision for us. We were down to Bellinger and Yusniel Diaz. We’re a bit cautious in case Bellinger’s 2015 was entirely California League-based, but the reports on his athleticism (could move to OF if needed) and intellect (the guy studies heat maps, according to the 2016 BA Prospect Handbook), as well as being further along in the developmental process was enough for us. Perhaps lower ceiling that Diaz, but a higher floor. (Brent Hershey, BaseballHQ)

2.6 – Steve Cishek, RP, Mariners

Cishek represented an opportunity to acquire my third closer of the offseason, making me a legitimate threat in the saves category in a crazy-deep league. (J.P. Breen, Baseball Prospectus)

2.7 – Yusniel Diaz, OF, Dodgers

We were pleased to see Yusniel Diaz still available. He’s a bit of an unknown, but we do know he hit as an 18-year-old in Cuba, earned an enormous bonus from the Dodgers and has upside uncommon in a mid-second round pick. With Harper, Pederson, Odor, Betts, Correa, Machado and Sano already on our roster, we can afford to overlook Diaz’ lack of power. Since this writeup is short, I’ll use my remaining time to say stop drafting pitching prospects, folks. Draft hitters and use them to trade for the pitchers that actually make it. (Tom Trudeau, MLB.com)

2.8 – David Hernandez, RP, Phillies

Grabbing David Hernandez in the second round was probably my lowest draft moment in an eleven-year fantasy-playing career, but the same principle applied: early Saves hold outsized value to my short-term interests, and sometimes you have to make painful choices to sacrifice long-term value to maximize present opportunity – especially in a league of this size and quality. (Wilson Karaman, Baseball Prospectus)

2.9 – Brady Aiken, LHP, Indians

(Mike Rosenbaum, MLB Pipeline)

2.10 – Jonathan Villar, SS, Brewers

My team was seriously short on speed last season, so I tried to address that with my second-round selection of Jonathan Villar. He’s not likely to hit for a high average or get on base much, but I could see him swiping 15-20 bases with regular at-bats as the Brewers’ shortstop. Granted, he’s merely keeping the seat warm for Orlando Arcia, who figures to be up by mid-season. (D.J. Short, Rotoworld)

2.11 – Garrett Whitley, OF, Rays

I agonized over this choice for a while, but given where I am in the contention cycle I popped Whitley because of his upside. Am I super confident he’ll live up to what his tools suggest he can be? No. Am I super confident I’ll be able to sell him off at some point during his MiLB career? Yes. (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)

2.12 – Luis Alexander Basabe, OF, Red Sox

After two picks in the first round, I was staring at four picks in the back half of the second—three of which were acquired in trades during the season. In fact, I even had one more second rounder, which I dealt the night of the keeper deadline with Pedro Gonzalez for Alex Cobb. So I had the luxury of being able to take some chances here. Case in point, Basabe, who has some real power/speed upside and could be a breakout player in 2016. Plus, as long as I own him, I’ll always have a trade chip with Wilson. (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus/The Dynasty Guru)

2.13 – Tyler Jay, RHP, Twins

(Chris Mitchell, RotoExperts)

2.14 – Nick Plummer, OF, Cardinals

Another upside play, Plummer is a bat I still like a lot despite a rough pro debut. He is a ways away (he was a cold weather hitting prospect, and not the last I’d take in this round), but he has plus potential on both the hit and power tools (though it’s extremely unlikely to materialize on both). I wanted a bunch of hitting prospects heading into the draft, and I was now 4-for-4. (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus/The Dynasty Guru)

2.15 – Vladimir Guerrero Jr, OF, Blue Jays

I needed to replenish my minor league roster after trading away most of my prospects for major league help. The best prospects were gone by this stage of the draft so I opted for the guy I considered the most valuable of this year’s J2 crop. Note I said “most valuable” rather than best. His name recognition will guarantee him a spot on top prospect lists as long as he shows decent potential over the next couple years. He is light years away from the majors but as we have seen with the likes of Rafael Devers, Franklin Barreto and Gleyber Torres these J2 guys can have excellent value in dynasty leagues long before they reach the big leagues. Chances are slim I will hold him the six years it will take for him to start helping my team in games, but I can capitalize on his trade value whenever I need to. It seems like there are tons of Vlad the Impaler’s sons, nephews, cousins and in-laws playing in the minors these days, but Vlad Jr. is the best of the bunch. He has great power potential and a solid hit tool to go along with the famous name. He doesn’t have his dad’s rocket arm but who cares? (Nick Doran, The Dynasty Guru/FakeTeams)

2.16 – Tyler Goedell, OF, Phillies

This was before the Altherr injury, to be fair, but Tyler Goeddel is an upside play on a poor Phillies roster, someone who may not really be ready for big-league playing time but could get a long leash due to the club’s non-competitiveness. (J.P. Breen, Baseball Prospectus)

2.17 – Chase Headley, 3B, Yankees

(James Anderson, Rotowire)

2.18 – Colin Rea, SP, Padres

Now to change things up a bit. Rea has drawn a lot of praise for the Padres’ coaching staff this spring and looks like a lock for a rotation spot at this point. There’s not a ton of upside here, but I needed an extra arm and Rea has the added benefit of being able to sneak into a minor league spot if I need him to. Plus, Petco. (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus/The Dynasty Guru)

2.19 – Josh Naylor, 1B, Marlins

Like you thought I’d be able to pass up a portly slugger. Do you ever know me? (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus/The Dynasty Guru)

2.20 – Drew Jackson, SS, Mariners

Jackson’s stock got a huge boost from his MVP performance in the Northwest League. He hit .358 and stole 58 bases in 47 games, which are obviously eye-popping numbers. The average in particular was a leap from what you might have expected based on pre-draft scouting reports, but he reportedly changed his mechanics a bit to shorten the bat path. Jackson will stay at shortstop and if he can continue to hit some as he moves up, has a high fantasy floor thanks to his speed. (Greg Wellemeyer, Baseball Prospectus/The Dynasty Guru)

Coming up next week, we will take a look at the final three rounds of the TDGX draft and recap the first round of FAAB bidding.

George Bissell is a writer at Baseball Prospectus. You can follow him on Twitter @GeorgeBissell

The Author

Greg Wellemeyer

Greg Wellemeyer

No Comment

Leave a Reply

Previous post

The Case For The Franken-player

Next post

Curb Your Regression Enthusiasm: Francisco Lindor