I Love Prospects, I Hate Prospects!
It goes without saying that a good knowledge of prospects is mandatory for long-term success in dynasty leagues. No matter how good your team is right now you still need to plan for the future. If you can build up a solid core of the top prospects in baseball chances are your team is going to be good for a long time, right? That is true — but maybe not to the degree we all expect.
Let’s face it: prospecting is like rolling dice. Sometimes you get boxcars sometimes you get snake eyes. No matter how good you are at evaluating prospects you are going to be wrong a lot. You can study all the major Top 100 Prospects lists each offseason, watch tons of video and go to minor league games and still make the wrong decisions regarding which prospects to invest in.
Let’s take a look at the 21 players who appeared on one or more consensus top five overall prospects in baseball lists in the last five years (2011-2015). We will organize them into three groups depending on how they have fared since being ranked as uber-elite prospects:
The Studs
Bryce Harper
Mike Trout
Gerrit Cole
Xander Bogaerts
Carlos Correa
Kris Bryant
These are the guys we dream about and hope to build our fantasy teams around. Superstar players we will own for years. Prospects of that elite status do not come cheaply very often. You probably paid a ton for these guys and it paid off in spades.
The Downers
Oscar Taveras
Javier Baez
Archie Bradley
Jurickson Profar
Dylan Bundy
Wil Myers
Matt Moore
Jesus Montero
Julio Teheran
Domonic Brown
Jeremy Hellickson
If you had any of these former elite prospects on your team you used to be very excited to have them. They probably cost you either an early draft pick, a big chunk of your auction budget, or maybe you traded a good player to get them. How is that expensive investment looking right now? Not so good. Some of these guys might still become good players but their value right now is much, much lower than it was when they were ranked as top 5 overall prospects.
Too Early to Decide
Addison Russell
Corey Seager
Shelby Miller
Byron Buxton
These guys still look like they will be good but haven’t proven it yet. Seager is probably the best of the bunch. Miller has been up and down but remains a hot property. If you have these guys you are still happy but may be getting a bit nervous about them living up to the price you paid to get them.
So that is 21 total players that appeared in the consensus top 5 prospects in the last five years. 11 have seen their stock drop way down due to poor performance or injury or both. Six have developed into legit star players. Four have seen their value stay the same. That means the failure rate is 52%, the success rate is 29% and the I-don’t-know rate is 19%. Is that what you hope for when you invest a ton of resources (draft, budget, trade) into a prospect? Are you thinking you have a one in three chance of getting a star and a 50/50 chance of a bust? I would bet most fantasy owners are more optimistic than that when they pull the trigger on that sexy prospect investment.
You might say, “Well Nick, prospecting can’t predict injuries. Taveras, Profar, Bundy and Moore would have been great if they hadn’t gotten hurt” and you would be absolutely correct. But they did get hurt. You invested big-time in players who failed to pay off for your team. It doesn’t matter why. Maybe they got hurt. Maybe they just sucked. What difference does it really make in the end? You get screwed either way. They may get hurt or they may fail to become star players but the result is the same: your team suffers.
We all know prospects can bust. We intuitively understand that prospecting is a risky endeavor. If you hit it big on the next Mike Trout you can win championships. If you miss out on the next Bryce Harper there are always going to be more chances. But let’s take a look at it from the other side. What about the superstar players who were never elite prospects or top prospects? What about the superstars who were never even prospects at all? There are a surprising number of stud fantasy players who you could have obtained absolutely free when they were nobodies in the minor leagues.
2015 AL MVP Josh Donaldson never appeared on a single top 100 prospect list published by Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus. He appeared at #76 on the ESPN list waaaaay back in 2008 immediately after he was drafted but then dropped off completely in subsequent seasons. By the time of his rookie year in 2012 he was nowhere near the prospect map.
2015 AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel never appeared on a single top 100 prospect list anywhere. Neither did 2014 winner Corey Kluber. Neither did 2012 winner R.A. Dickey. Sensing a trend?
2015 NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta was last eligible for prospects lists in 2010 and was ranked #99 by BA, #70 by BP, #90 by ESPN and #73 by FanGraphs. So he did get ranked, but just barely.
Perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt never appeared on any top 100 prospects lists anywhere. In fact, let’s take a look at the best hitters in baseball and the best rank they ever got from Baseball America.
Top 15 hitters in 5×5 roto leagues last year:
| 2015 | Best Rank by Baseball America | |
| 1 | Bryce Harper | 1 |
| 2 | Paul Goldschmidt | Never Ranked |
| 3 | Josh Donaldson | Never Ranked |
| 4 | AJ Pollock | Never Ranked |
| 5 | Nolan Arenado | 42 |
| 6 | Mike Trout | 2 |
| 7 | Dee Gordon | 26 |
| 8 | Manny Machado | 11 |
| 9 | Yoenis Cespedes | 14 |
| 10 | Nelson Cruz | Never Ranked |
| 11 | Chris Davis | 65 |
| 12 | Jose Altuve | Never Ranked |
| 13 | Jose Bautista | Never Ranked |
| 14 | Anthony Rizzo | 47 |
| 15 | Lorenzo Cain | Never Ranked |
That’s amazing. Out of the 15 best hitters in baseball last year almost half (7 of 15) never appeared on a BA Top 100 Prospects list. Only two of them ever made the BA top 10. Only four of them ever made a BA top 25. The rest of them you could have gotten for nothing even after they made it to the major leagues.
What does this mean? It shows that even if you corner the market on prospects and stash ALL of the top 10 prospects on your team you are still not going to get most of the best hitters in baseball. We simply cannot tell with any degree of certainty how good a player is going to be in the future when they are still in the minor leagues. Some prospects will underperform and some will overperform. We feel we are very good at knowing in advance how good these players will be, but we really aren’t anywhere close to perfect. Ranked players have a much better chance than unranked players, so prospecting is definitely a vital key to success. Just keep in mind that it is an inexact science.
Here is the big takeaway from this column: 1) Most top prospects fail to become fantasy stars. 2) Most fantasy stars were never top prospects.
Even if today’s fantasy stars were in fact elite prospects in the minors, chances are they were not always elite prospects. The guy who is drafted #1 overall and stays an elite prospect throughout his minor league development time and quickly blossoms into an MLB superstar is exceedingly rare. The chase to find the next Ken Griffey Jr ensnares a lot of team owners, most of whom will be heavily investing in prospects year after year after year because they will never escape the dreaded rebuilding mode. Most of today’s fantasy stars started out their minor league careers in anonymity and only after a couple of years in the low minors did they become top prospects. That means they could have been obtained very cheaply if you managed to snare them before they hit the top of the prospect charts. Even Mike Trout wasn’t always MIKE TROUT. Trout was ranked #3 in 2012 and #2 in 2011, but before that he was ranked #85 in 2010. If you got him in 2010 you made out like a bandit. If you waited another year until 2011 then you paid through the nose to get him.
That is where the opportunity lies in prospecting. You must get these guys before everyone else wants them. If you have a good team (and you should if you read this site regularly) then you are never going to have the draft picks required to get the uber-elite prospects. If you wanted to draft Bryce Harper you had to be the worst team in the league with the first overall pick in your draft. TDG readers don’t get the first overall pick in their dynasty drafts. So how are you going to get the next uber-elite prospects? By stockpiling a bunch of the guys from the back half of the top 100 prospects lists. Avoid the guys in the back half who are 25 years old and on the verge of the majors. Those guys don’t have high ceilings. Aim for the youngest players on the list who are still in the low minors but have already opened some eyes in the prospect world. These are the potential breakout players who might populate the top 10 of the lists in a couple years. You can get these potential boomers for a dime a dozen compared to the elite top 10 studs. If they boom you cash in, if they bust you didn’t lose much.
Looking at last year’s lists you could find guys in the back half like Rafael Devers, Tim Anderson, Alex Reyes, Franklin Barreto, Michael Conforto, Raisel Iglesias, Willy Adames, Ozhaino Albies, Reynaldo Lopez, Greg Bird and others who will rank much higher this year. It is easy to see this in hindsight of course. It is a real challenge to identify the right guys early enough to snag them before your leaguemates beat you to it. Keep reading this website and the odds will be in your favor.
It is important to be intimately familiar with prospects and do your best to acquire them for your fantasy squads. But it is NOT the most important thing. If there is one mistake that I see fantasy owners make more than any other it is relying too heavily on prospects to build their teams, especially in a startup draft. It is fine to stockpile prospects if you are rebuilding a bad roster, but you should not take prospects early in startup drafts. You should build your original roster with proven major league studs. You will have plenty of time to stockpile youngsters later. One thing is certain — there is a new crop of prospects every year. If you have a good team at the beginning you really only need to add one or two future studs to your team each subsequent season to replace your aging veterans. If you start out in rebuilding mode from the very beginning you will need to be extraordinarily lucky/skillful with your prospect investments to maneuver your team into contention in the future.
Nothing is more satisfying than seeing that prospect you have been nurturing for years finally burst into stardom for your team. That is an awesome feeling. We chase that feeling constantly and rarely get to actually experience it. You know what feels even better? Winning the championship. If you want to experience the glory of winning the title you should be cautious when investing in prospects. Don’t overpay for the elite ones. We have seen how they don’t pay off very often. Consider trading your prospects for proven veterans around 25-27 years old. Replenish the prospect pipeline with less expensive, ultra-young prospects from the back half of the lists. When/if their value shoots up you can trade them off for more proven producers and repeat the cycle again.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Are there any other players you would like some advice on? Got any potential breakout prospects we should discuss?
Nick Doran also writes for Redleg Nation. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @BlazingFastba11.
The Author
38 Comments
Rip ot, ?
Yeah really, R.I.P. Taveras. I think a small note about that above would’ve been good as Taveras is a “Downer” in another sense, not in the sense of what this article is about. He could’ve been great … at least, many of us will always believe that.
Oh, forgot to say “great article”. Really puts things into perspective when one is clinging onto ‘the next big thing’ that doesn’t pan out. Follows the general good advice of trade for known quantities (MLB players) with the unknown or possibly worthless (minors guys).
I agree. Sometimes the best way to benefit from your astute prospect investment is to cash him in with a nice trade for a proven veteran. I often say that a prospect’s value will never be higher than it is on the day he gets the call to the major leagues. That is when the excitement level exceeds his true value the most.
Yes RIP Oscar Taveras. He was a big loss for baseball. That was a shocker when the announcement came on the tv screen during the World Series.
He MURDERED his girlfriend and killed himself – I’ll never have sympathy for a drunk driver who endangers not only their own lives but the lives of others. Being a good baseball player doesn’t give you a pass for being a bad person
[…] explains why you shouldn’t fall in love with prospects in your dynasty […]
This is great. I wish I had this article before doing my first dynasty draft.
Thanks commish10. Glad you liked it and I hope it helps.
Great article. I love reading these on TDG. I have a comment and then I’d also like to ask your input on something.
My comment is on Javier Baez. I have him stashed on my “home” dynasty team (18 teamer entering it’s 16th season). Full disclosure, I am a Cubs fan. Being a Cubs fan I follow them very closely. The chatter that I hear (and that is all it is at this point, “chatter”) is that Maddon is enamored with the idea of Javier Baez being his next Ben Zobrist. I’m not talking about ability, I’m talking about Baez being Maddon’s next “super-sub” in that he could play every day, either starting or first man off the bench, at a different position. Baez has already shown the ability to play the field, and play it well, at 2b, SS and 3b. Watch what happens in spring training. If Baez is getting playing time in the OF during ST, I think that will be evidence of the direction the Cubs are heading with Baez. Of course he would need to hit consistently in order for this to be a sustainable plan, but the numbers he put up last season in AAA and after his big league call up (including playoffs) makes me believe that he could be a very valuable Swiss army knife on any fantasy team going forward. Take this for what it is but I believe Baez just might be a great “buy low” candidate right now, unless you are in my league because I’m not selling, I’m holding.
And now my question. I understand I’m asking you to rate them in a vacuum, but disregarding your own fantasy team’s needs how would you rank this list of prospects if you had your choice of preference to add them to your fantasy team? I have my own rank but I like to compare notes with others who (at least appear to) know what they are talking about.
-Robert Stephenson
-Orlando Arcia
-Josh Bell
-Tyler Glasnow
-Blake Snell
-Nomar Mazara
-Kenta Maeda
These are all guys who have been added to their team’s 40-man roster during the offseason. Sorry about the long post. I look forward to your response.
regarding your baez point– i’d just be mindful that everyone was saying the same thing about arismendy alcantara last season and his prospect status has fallen to the lowest its ever been. For me, the question isn’t necessarily about what you think the player will do, but what you think his market value is compared to what he’ll do. If you believe Baez will be the stud people paid for in 2013/2014, then selling right now is probably selling low. If you think the risk of him collapsing is too high for you to be comfortable, then start looking for someone who believes in him more than you.
Sounds to me like you think he’ll recoup value. I personally agree, I think he’ll build his value back up. Something nick doesn’t explore here is the number of chances we’re all willing to give those guys who “bust”, the trade value of them is higher than it is for the guys who break out but aren’t ranked. Put another way, if a breakout guy and a former top prospect are projected to put up the same stat line, dynasty owners traditionally will pay more for the former top prospect in a trade or on draft day.
Thanks for the reply Tyler. I do think Baez will recoup value, but probably not to the overinflated levels that some paid for in 2013/2014. My Cubs fandom probably skews my bias for better or worse I suppose, but at the same time I was never on board with the optimism surrounding Alcantara last year. I get what you are saying about former top prospects and guys who were never ranked. I’ve been able to take advantage of a few situations like that where I’m content getting guys like Pollock and Altuve while others are clamoring over Puig or Buxton.
I’d like to hear your take on those guys I listed above. I won’t get into details, but those guys will basically be attainable in one of my leagues. Going by the criteria of “probability of making the biggest impact at his position” I have them ranked:
-Mazara
-Glasnow
-Snell
-Bell
-Maeda
-Stephenson
-Arcia
I have Bell ranked a bit higher in this league than I otherwise would because it’s OBP instead of AVG and TBs instead of HRs….thoughts?
Michael’s comments about Baez being the super utility player made me think the same as you did Tyler. They said the same thing about Alcantara last year. That didn’t work out to well because Alcantara forgot how to hit. Baez is a much better prospect.
I would rank those players Maeda, Glasnow, Snell, Mazara, Bell, Stephenson, Arcia.
So we really only differ on the value of Maeda. I think he will be good but his trade value should be even higher in most leagues. The big Japanese and Cuban imports tend to generate quite a bit of hype come draft time.
Thank you for your replies Nick. I love reading this site, especially during the offseason. The articles you guys write always give me something to think about.
I think our difference in the value of Maeda comes from how we are valuing this group. I’m looking at how much impact can this guy have stat wise over the course of his career in my yearly pursuit of the league championship. You’re looking at how much trade value would each player have come draft time, and I think you’re right. In terms of draft time trade value I think your ranking of that group is spot on.
I agree with the general point of the article, but the tiers for the top guys seem a little off. Why is Miller too early to decide when he’s pitched three full seasons, the same as Teheran? And Teheran and Miller have both performed very well so far in their careers, far from busts.
The only ones in this list I clearly look at as busts are Dom Brown, Hellickson, Montero, and Taveras (tough to include him on here since it’s hard to predict death). The rest are too early to decide. I get that the point of the article is to find guys before they get popular, but you’re being a bit pessimistic about top prospects and very optimistic about back-half of the top 100 guys and low minors prospects with high ceilings, both groups that have a much, much higher bust rate than top prospects.
I completely agree. Teheran has had 3 straight years with double digit wins and 170+ K’s, and 2 of the years he had an ERA- in the 80’s. That’s not a bust. He’s younger than Shelby Miller, BTW. I think the key to building a dynasty team is to just temper your expectations when evaluating prospects. They aren’t all going to be superstars, but if you hit on one and get a few stars that’s still pretty good. Teheran is 24 and he’s already been an All-Star (2014).
Teheran is a guy I am quite down on and have been for a long time. His “good years” were really not so good when you look under the hood. His peripherals made it easy to predict a big decline for him last year, which I did here: http://thedynastyguru.com/2014/11/24/now-is-the-time-to-sell-julio-teheran/
I took some heat for that prediction but I was 100% right. So far at least.
In my opinion Teheran is not worth nearly as much as he used to be, so his value is down. If you disagree you can move him to the success column without changing the validity of the article too much.
I counted Miller in the too early to tell section because even though he has been in the league for three years we still don’t really know how good he is going to be. He is still a prospect in that sense. I see a lot of talent but the peripherals (and hence the long term prognosis) are not that enticing to me. I think his value is similar to what it was when he was a prospect, so I can’t really move him to the success for failure columns yet.
I can say that when people were spending big to acquire Teheran and Miller as elite prospects they were not hoping to get a league-average pitcher. They were looking for stars. I don’t think either Miller or Teheran can be counted as stars right now. If you got them cheaply then you are not disappointed in them now. If you paid big prices you are disappointed. The point of the article was to caution people about investing heavy resources into prospects because chances are you are not going to profit from that investment. You have a decent chance of breaking even and a big chance of taking a loss — even if it is not a total loss.
don’t forget about miguel sano!
Sano has been a top 8-12 prospect the last three years but never made it into the top 5 elite prospects on consensus lists.
Great points in this article nick. The hardest thing to do when youre building your team, whether you inherit it or not is to tune out hype around prospects. The issue with trading/trading for prospects is someone will likely think they are with more than they are. The reason we do this is because when we research on sites like these they often will present a lot of good word about that prospect, those good words may stay stuck lodged in the back of our heads for a long time. Maybe so long that we reject a top current player for said prospect because we think they’re the next trout/harvey.
Anyway, I recently got a trade offer of yelich/cespedes for judge/bird and i turned it down. I sent an email to the address listed on this site but never got a response so I just let it expire. What’s your take on it?
I feel like everyone has started to become quite sour on judge so maybe this was selling high? I probably wont compete for at least a year because my pitching is quite horrible (my 1 is Lester) but I cant help but be compelled to ask myself why I valued him so highly that I didnt just contemplate accepting the trade in the first place. I guess upside is always the temptress in disguise.
I’d love to hear your opinion on that trade offer and if there’s any other similar move out there that youd suggest.
Thanks
Thanks for your comments JK.
I think the Yelich/Cespedes offer for Judge and Bird was fair. I think you probably did the right thing since you are rebuilding.
Welp, I wrote a really long comment and it didn’t get published for some reason… Ugh
Anyway, ill just ask the basics of my question. I sent an email here and never got a response.
I’m in a 10 team league with a rebuilding team that has horrible pitching (Lester is my no.1). I’ve seen people become quite sour on judge so I decided to offer some deals out. I got an offer of yelich/cespedes for judge/bird, I wasn’t quite sure if that was a slam dunk or not but it ended up expiring. My team is probably at least a year away, at least because of how poor my pitching is. What would you suggest I do? This article really made me think, “wow I probably really overvalued my prospects” for once. I think the most probable reason I didnt do it is because I was afraid of losing a high upside player on a rebuilding team for one who might not be good sooner than later.
Thanks, your columns are always great.
You could always just flip Cespedes for prospects after you get him. I think Yelich + whatever you get for Cespedes would be a big win.
No, I highly doubt that. I’ve sent multiple offers, some at even my own expense because I’m trying to get my team younger knowing I’m a few pieces away. No one wants guys once they hit like 31, they dont even care if it helps them win or not. Its ridiculous, if some of those offers got accepted it would’ve surely put them over the top for a championship. They’d rather hold on to 19/20 year old prospects and overvalue the hell out of them when they already can win now.
You should play in a league where people actually want to win. This is where prizes come in handy.
Its not that they don’t want to win its just that I joined a league where like 5 teams have a stash of good young talent and some highly touted prospects. I cant make trades with them because they want a king and his castle and i cant make trades with the other not as well off teams because they’re in a similar but worse situation.
This was a good read that really made me re-think how I want to approach my first ever MiLB draft starting in two days. The plan is to go with prospects set to make debuts in 2016 and 2017 and maybe draft 2-3 guys with 2018+ ETAs. Now I’m wondering if I should go half and half (12 prospects per team, 16 managers).
I always want to be in win-now mode, which is what the first half of this article espouses, but the second half talks more about targeting long-term guys to get the eventual stars. This is kind of counter to win now.
Either way, good food for thought.
Hmm. Nice article, but I certainly wouldn’t take the leaderboard for a single season and conclude that most “fantasy stars” were never prospects. If anything, it just illustrates the difficulty in predicting who the top players will be in a given season.
i think your point is valid, but the guys he lists all have more than one season track record. Maybe lorenzo cain is unlikely to be in the top 15 again in his career, but i don’t think anyone will need to pay for him to put up that level of performance on draft day anyway.
What I get out of this is that value comes from unexpected places. It’s like the old saying, you can’t win your league with your first round pick but you can lose it. I’ve been in leagues where guys spent their first round pick on top prospects and the risk there is enormous, probably even higher than with non-prospects. Ultimately, there will be guys who significantly outperform expectations who will be available much, much cheaper than the top 5 prospects.
I agree, and I think it kind of confuses the issue. All prospects are lottery tickets, and I think the top players listed above exemplify that perfectly. But not all lottery tickets have the same chance of winning, and in the case of prospects. Give me a random handful of top 25 prospects vs. your random handful of #50-100’s over the course of 5-10 years and I bet you’d see a huge difference in results.
If you could have 5 top 25 guys or 5 top 100 guys then obviously you are going to want the top 25 guys. But that is not the realistic choice presented in the article. In reality you can either get one top 25 guy or several top 100 guys. In that choice I would take the several top 100s.
The point I was making in the article is that “purchasing” elite prospects usually fails to pay off in the end. Instead of purchasing an elite prospect, you are better off using those resources to purchase a proven veteran player, then fill out your minor league roster with low cost prospects from the back half of the top 100 lists.
Top 5 elite prospects are obviously better to own than guys from the 50-100 part of the lists, but those elite guys cost a crap-ton of resources to acquire. The 50-100 type guys are relatively cheap and sometimes end up being stars.
I think I’d throw Jose De Leon on that quick riser list too! Thankfully snagged him Iglesias and Nomar Mazara last year fairly cheap.
Jose De Leon is a great example of a quick riser for sure! In fact, he is such a good example that he did not even make any of the top 100 lists last offseason. He sure will this year though.
Nick- Enjoyed the article, good stuff. I’m taking over for a moribund franchise with a pretty bare cupboard in a 14 team league. It’s weekly h2h points, but that’s not super important. You are allowed 7 minor league keepers, and I was permitted to make a “free” waiver pickup to exchange guys I didn’t want for available FA MiLB players. I don’t have to declare for about two more months. Anyways, I’d like your input on which 7 guys to keep from my available players, and if I erred in any of my drops:
Potential Keeps
Jose Berrios
Jorge Polanco (pickup)
Javier Guerra (pickup)
Luis Ortiz (pickup)
Albert Almora
Keury Mella (pickup)
Renato Nunez (pickup)
Jacob Faria (pickup)
Jomar Reyes (pickup)
JD Davis
Derek Fisher
Drops
Casey Gillaspie
Kyle Crick
Kyle Freeland
Josh Sale
Justin O’Connor
Anthony Garcia
Matt Lipka
Your first six keepers from that list are easy:
Jose Berrios
Jomar Reyes
Jorge Polanco
Javier Guerra
Luis Ortiz
Derek Fisher
All of those guys are in the top 110 of my personal top prospect rankings. I love the fact that you picked up four of those guys for free. That is a good sign that your leaguemates don’t know what they are doing! LOL
You have several good choices for the 7th keeper. I would lean toward Renato Nunez I think.
Keep us posted on your progress.
[…] If you missed last week’s column check it out here: I Love Prospects, I Hate Prospects! […]
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