Shuffling the DeckUncategorized

Shuffling the Deck: Andy Pettitte, Fantasy Playoff Streamer

Many owners become afraid of picking up pitchers during the fantasy playoffs; afraid that one bad start could sink their ERA and WHIP. While it is necessary to avoid the terrible start that can sink your team for the week, the playoffs are not the time to change strategy and stop picking up advantageous pitching match-ups.

While many owners are asking “Who is pitching against the Astros?” or “Are the Marlins at home?”, I would like to humbly suggest that you pick up a pitcher whose best years are past him, but is still quite effective: Andy Pettitte.

I realize that you may be laughing, but please allow me to explain my reasoning:

  1. His next two starts are against the Orioles (2 starts, 12.2 IP, 3.55 ERA, 1.263 WHIP, 7 strikeouts in 2013) and the Blue Jays (3 starts, 20.1 IP, 1.77 ERA, 1.033 WHIP, 11 strikeouts in 2013).
  2. The Orioles’ best hitter hits lefty (Chris Davis), and Pettitte still dominates lefties (196/230/320 against lefties).
  3. The Blue Jays’ best hitter (Jose Bautista) and his career 323/417/710 line will not be appearing in any more games this season.
  4. Orioles with at least five PA hit 265/292/371 against him, and only 292/307/389 over the past two seasons.
  5. The Blue Jays hit a collective 218/277/333 against him, with Brett Lawrie (167/333/167 in 12 PA) and Edwin Encarnacion (000/000/000 in 12 PA) leading the way. The only Blue Jay likely to start with success is Rajai Davis (571/600/1000 in 15 PA).
  6. His next two starts are on the road, where he has pitched much better in 2013 (Home: 13 starts, 82.1 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.263 WHIP, 59 strikeouts; Away: 13 starts, 74 IP, 4.62 ERA, 1.541 WHIP, 50 strikeouts).
  7. He has pitched well over his past five starts, which includes two against Toronto (0.69 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 209/292/326 slash line) and one against Baltimore (1.71 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 237/293/325 slash line). His BABIP over his past five starts of .278 is below his career .309 BABIP, but not so much that a large regression appears on the horizon.
  8. His next start will probably be at home against the Giants, followed by at Houston with a playoff spot on the line. Two teams not in the playoff hunt will likely not be the most focused of opponents.
  9. He’s probably available in your league. As of Tuesday evening, he was only owned in 43% of Yahoo! leagues and 21.1% of ESPN leagues.

I hope it works out for you (and me)!

Until next time, @HypeProspect.

 

Sources:

Baseball-Reference

Fangraphs

The Author

M Foreman

M Foreman

2 Comments

  1. james
    September 12, 2013 at 12:22 am

    Okay, you make some great points. Would you start a two start Pettitte next week over Wacha @Col or T. Ross @Pitt?

  2. September 12, 2013 at 8:01 am

    I tend to avoid pitchers pitching in colorado, so I’d avoid Wacha there. Pettitte/Ross are probably a toss up, though Ross did get hit somewhat in his last start against the Buccos. Ross should get more Ks, so it depends on what your team needs. If you need Ks, go with Ross.

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