The Dynasty Guru’s Top 200 Dynasty Starting Pitchers, Nos. 141-200

It’s the time of the year where we offer congratulations to those of you brave dynasty league owners that survived the offseason. The greatness that 2016 will surely offer is upon us and that means we’ll be spending the next six weeks moving our way through the positional landscape, offering thoughts on the respective values of roughly 700 players throughout the process.

We sincerely hope that you enjoy the countless hours of hard work that went into these rankings and continue to support The Dynasty Guru by showing your appreciation through this link or via the splendid ‘donate’ button located on the upper right-hand corner of the homepage. Donations of any size are greatly appreciated.

Players are ranked where they played 20 or more games at during the 2015 season at their highest position on the defensive spectrum, e.g. Chris Davis played 30 games in the outfield, meaning he’s an outfielder for our purposes. We can’t assume that a player will have eligibility at a position in the future (so no Hanley Ramirez at 1b for these rankings) or that a player will lose eligibility at a position in the future. This should clear things up for all non-Javier Baez/Jurickson Profar players, and we’ll do our best to explain where those players are ranked when the time comes. All DH types, such as Evan Gattis and David Ortiz, appear on the 1B rankings, as we will not be doing a UTIL rankings list.

Our final grouping of starters is led off by yet another Braves pitching prospect from their exciting stable:

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A Podcast For Your Eyes 2.0: It’s the Daniel Nava of Wines

As I hinted at in yesterday’s post on the updated Top 500 Dynasty League Rankings, Ben, Craig and I sat down to “record” the latest PFYE on the subject at hand. So for your amusement, we talked over gchat for almost an hour and a half about what we’ve liked and not liked so far during the 2013 season–along with some tough decisions to be made. The following conversation has not been edited, abridged or otherwise touched (besides cleaning up our names and the formatting so that it’s easier to read).

Without any further introduction (because this post is long enough as is), I present to you the Episode 2 of A Podcast For Your Eyes.

Bret:  i’m back, babydoll!


Bret:  so you guys ready to kick this thing off?

Craig:  as long as you’re not being Lucy to our Charlie Brown, yes.

Ben:  i am prepared.

Craig:  but seriously I just logged off twitter, so yes I’m ready

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The Top 225 Dynasty League Starting Pitchers, Part 2 (#51-125)

We both you know that you don’t want some sort of long-winded introduction here. You just want to see the list.

Your wish is my command.

And now your next 75 dynasty league starters, with commentary:

#51 – Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians

#52 – Jaime Garcia, St Louis Cardinals

Garcia is a guy I pumped hard last off-season and was burned by his injuries. I’m at it again this off-season, however, I freely admit that if he did not have the shoulder concerns, he’d be well inside the top-50. 2012, although shortened, was the second year in a row that Garcia achieved holy trinity status, and I don’t think it will be the last.

#53 – Tyler Skaggs, Arizona Diamondbacks

#54 – Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks

#55 – Matt Harrison, Texas Rangers

One of the best calls I made last pre-season was that I’d take Matt Harrison flat out over his more hyped rotation-mate Derek Holland (who has yet to make an appearance on this list). Harrison will never be a big strikeout guy, but his stuff is better than you would expect, and he has the skill to sustain his performance as a strong three-category performer.

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The Top 150 Dynasty League Prospects, Part 3 (#90-61)

Today is Day Three. Over the next 29 days, this site will be dedicated almost solely to the task at hand – the 2013 Dynasty League Rankings. If you’re looking for background on both the content you should expect and the dates you should expect them, check out the 2013 rankings homepage. And we’re kicking off the month-long project with the list that I’ve gotten the most questions about since the off-season started. The only difference between the original schedule and what you’ll see this week is that I’ve broken the Top 150 out into five parts, not three. Each day of the week, you’ll get thirty more guys until we culminate Friday with #1.

First, I have a couple of disclaimers specific to the prospect list before we jump in. These rankings are for fantasy purposes only, and do not directly take into account things like an outfielder’s range or a catcher’s pop time. Of course, these things do matter indirectly as they affect a player’s ability to stay at a particular position. So, while Austin Hedges may be a top-50 prospect in baseball, due in large part to his defensive value, he’ll be much lower in these rankings because his upside isn’t nearly as great for fantasy. Additionally, these rankings will take into account a player’s parent organization – so a pitcher likely to call Petco or Safeco home, will get a bump. Same with hitters who are likely to play at Coors or in Arlington. But most importantly, the intention of this list is to balance the upside, probability and proximity of these players to an active fantasy lineup. So, in a vacuum, I’d rather have the #104 player on this list than #105 on my dynasty league roster right now, based on all of those factors.

Additionally, if you want to delve any further into the list or have specific dynasty league questions, either post them in the comments section below, catch me on Twitter at @dynastyguru or send me an e-mail to dynastyguru [at] gmail [dot] com and I will answer all of them. If you just want to say hello or tell me I’ve over/under rated someone you love/hate, that’s great too. I’m a firm believer that an ongoing dialogue is always more helpful than a singular monologue, and the goal of this is to be an additional resource in guiding your team to a championship.

So without any further ado, here is part three of the 2013 Top 150 Dynasty League Prospect list:

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John Lamb and Trusting the Process

Tommy John surgery is something that we, as a baseball community, have gotten a lot more comfortable with over the past decade or so – at least at the major league level. When a star pitcher like Stephen Strasburg or Adam Wainwright or Tim Hudson undergoes the procedure, we set our watches to 12-14 months in the future and wait for our beloved stars to return. We then all talk about how it really takes 18-24 months for a pitcher’s full arsenal (stuff + command) to come back once they go under the knife. By most sources, the success rate of Tommy John surgery across the board is roughly between 80% and 90%, and this appears to be universally accepted by even the casual fan. So why is it that we overrate the procedure when it comes to prospects?

The latest example of this is John Lamb – a left-handed starting pitching prospect in the Royals farm system. Lamb was a 5th round draft pick of the Royals back in 2008, although he was considered a first-round talent prior to a car accident which caused him to miss his entire high school senior season. He repaid the Royals belief in him early by pitching well in his 2009 debut across the Appy and Pioneer Leagues, but it was 2010 which put him firmly on the prospect map. Between Low-A, High-A and Double-A in 2010, Lamb went 10-7 with a 2.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 159 K in 147 2/3 IP. He entered 2011 as the #18 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America and the #11 prospect according to Baseball Prospectus. His star was firmly on the rise as a potential #2 starter who could be within 12 months of making the big league team.

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Drafting a Dynasty League Roster: Minor League Draft, Rounds 7-9

The Context –

I signed up for a newly-formed 20-team dynasty league so that I could write about building a roster the old-fashioned way (as opposed to the series on my rebuilding project). It is a 7×7 H2H league that uses all of the standard 5×5 categories, plus OPS/Total Bases for hitters and Quality Starts/Holds for pitchers. The active rosters are one player per position (OF are broken out by LF/CF/RF) plus a Utility player on offense, and nine pitchers (2 SP, 2 RP, 5 P). On top of that, there are 7 reserve spots, 3 DL spots and 20 minor league spots. So, all in all, it’s a very deep league with an active lineup that skews a little towards pitching and deep minor league rosters (400 total prospects will be rostered). Oh, and by the way, I’m the Minnesota Twins.

So here is a review of rounds four through six of the draft. I’m going to look at who I picked and why (along with others I was considering) and who the best/worst picks of the round were (mine excluded). Hopefully this helps with either your valuations of these prospects or the preparation for your own dynasty league draft.

Round Seven –

7.1     Texas Rangers: Marcell Ozuna (OF, Miami)
7.2     Colorado Rockies: Brad Miller (SS, Seattle)
7.3     Toronto Blue Jays: Sonny Gray (SP, Oakland)
7.4     Seattle Mariners: Ronald Guzman (OF, Texas)
7.5     San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson (OF, Pittsburgh)
7.6     Oakland Athletics: Aaron Hicks (OF, Minnesota)
7.7     Cincinnati Reds: Joc Pederson (OF, Los Angeles NL)
7.8     Houston Astros: Stefen Romero (3B, Seattle)
7.9     Detroit Tigers: Victor Sanchez (SP, Seattle)
7.10  Chicago Cubs: Arodys Vizcaino (RP, Chicago NL)
7.11  *Minnesota Twins: Dorssys Paulino (SS, Cleveland)*
7.12  Washington Nationals: Cory Spangenberg (2B, San Diego)
7.13  Los Angeles Angels: Brandon Nimmo (OF, New York NL)
7.14  San Diego Padres: Bruce Rondon (RP, Detroit)
7.15  Pittsburgh Pirates: Michael Wacha (SP, St. Louis)
7.16  Baltimore Orioles: Jairo Beras (OF, Texas)
7.17  Milwaukee Brewers: Luis Sardinas (SS, Texas)
7.18  New York Mets: Brett Jackson (OF, Chicago NL)
7.19  Arizona Diamondbacks: Kyle Gibson (SP, Minnesota)
7.20  Boston Red Sox: Christian Bethancourt (C, Atlanta)

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