This is a companion piece to our 2025 Dynasty League Rankings. The opinions below are my own and do not reflect the TDG consensus.

Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers (AGE: 35, RANK: 5)

Imagine this, a walk-off World Series grand slam, four World Series home runs in four consecutive games, a .300 batting average in the World Series, a World Series championship, and finally the World Series MVP. The top was reached and now the floor may start falling out from beneath this pinnacle of excellence, piece by piece. Then one day it will just vanish and you are left with a player who you don’t recognize anymore, a player who can look up at the top of the mountain and remember the glory. Unfortunately, at the point in time where he has fallen through the floor, there will not be another climb to the top, for Father Time comes eventually to get us all. Yes, I am talking about Freddie Freeman and the crazy thought that he should be a fantasy baseball avoid for dynasty leagues.

Is this such a crazy thought to avoid Freeman in fantasy baseball, maybe, but I will be avoiding him in dynasty leagues and it does go beyond the surface reason of age. Let us get to the time factor right away though. Freeman will be 35 years old at the start of this season and turn 36 at the end of the baseball year. If you look at dynasty values over a three or a five-year time frame, he will be 38 and 40 by the end of those periods. It just isn’t likely he’ll maintain his level of excellence over that time and at that age. There is also evidence of age already taking a toll with the dwindling numbers from this past season. A .282 batting average: his worst since 2015, a .378 OBP: his worst since 2015, 22 home runs: his second worst since 2015, a .194 ISO: his second worst since 2015, and a .365 wOBA: his worst since 2015, and .002 away from being his worst since 2012. Needless to say, I believe we are seeing a downturn in his career.

To further draw an eye toward concern for Freeman, his statcast data doesn’t add a hint of optimism either. His swing speed is in the 20th percentile at 69.8 MPH. This would be fine if he was still barreling balls consistently, hitting the ball hard frequently, and had exit velocities well above average. Unfortunately, he is not, with those numbers all hovering around the 60th percentile in the 2024 season. Even his sprint speed took a hit as it went down to the 13th percentile.

Ultimately, Freeman has seen his better days come and go, with the value that comes with being a top five first baseman just not there anymore. Chances are he won’t return the value in this range compared to younger first basemen who come in below him in the rankings. He may still hold value more so in short increments and in a one or two year timeframe, but I am definitely avoiding Freeman as a longer-term player in dynasty leagues.

Colt Keith, Detroit Tigers (AGE: 23, RANK: 17)

My second first baseman to avoid is the opposite of Freddie Freeman and one who comes with much more long-term dynasty upside. The upside though comes with some gut-punching underlying statcast data. This player is Colt Keith. He has youth on his side and upside to dream on, but when you look deeper at his profile, it is one that I am avoiding in fantasy baseball at his current value.

Keith is transitioning to first base for the 2025 season and there his numbers will need a boost to be valuable for fantasy baseball players. In 2024 he hit .260/.309/.380, with a .689 OPS, 13 home runs, and seven stolen bases. He doesn’t walk much (26th percentile), doesn’t hit the ball hard (22nd percentile hard hit rate), and rarely barrels the ball (25th percentile). His bat speed was also on the slower side, sitting at 71.3 MPH in the 39th percentile. Without some major improvements, his profile is not conducive to seeing a power increase in the near future.

To top things off, Keith plays in one of the worst home ballparks for home runs, in Detroit. Almost all of his home runs were to the pull side, even more concerning, there were not many fly balls hit deep in parks that didn’t go out. He only hit about nine balls that went past the outfielders, distance-wise, that were not home runs. This led to him only having 15 doubles and a .120 ISO. Like many young players, there is room for improvement, but until Keith makes those changes to get better raw power, exit velocities, and swing speed, I am avoiding him in dynasty leagues. Much more traditional first baseman who can add big power numbers can be found ranked lower than him.

(Daniel Labude)