Here at the TDG Headquarters, we’ve been busy looking for “The Next Big Thing.”   With that in mind, we’ve assembled a team of prospect prognosticators and developed a set of tiered rankings for each position. And once they’re all posted, we’ll wrap up with our Top 200 Overall Prospects, putting it all together.

Be sure to listen to the Join the Ranks podcast for more discussion about these prospects.

Today, we bring you the first base prospect tiers 3 and 4, which include prospects #15 – 40.

Tier 3

P.J. Morlando is my guy in this third tier. He was drafted in the 2024 MLB draft out of high school and has some of the biggest upside of anyone ranked in the third tier and below. He was regarded as the top high school bat before falling off some in his senior season. He has light-tower power but can struggle to show it in games. Once he transitions from raw batting-practice power to in-game power, he will rocket up rankings lists. (Brian Labude)

This tier has three standouts. Luis Merejo, Pablo Guerrero, and Abimelec Ortiz. Merejo really put things together after he turned 18 years old in 2024. He hit his way up to Single-A Lynchburg and excelled with a 145 wRC+. He is a big breakout candidate for 2025. Guerrero dominated the Complex League as a 17/18-year-old. He had a wRC+ of 119 and hit seven home runs in 51 games. The strikeout rate was at 30%, but he still managed to hit .301/.367/.502. He struggled at Single-A Hickory later in the year, so expect him to start back there in 2025 at a more appropriate age. He hits the ball very hard like his brother (Vlad Jr.) and big things are possible if he keeps improving as he gets older. Ortiz is the older player here at 22 years old at Double-A Frisco. He had a bad stretch in a weird season in 2024. Likely he was working on things and caught fire to finish the season, hitting .321/.413/.592, with a 1.006 OPS over his last 48 games. This included 13 of his 18 home runs, a walk rate of 13.1%, a strikeout rate of 20.1%, and a wRC+ of 179. A hot 2025 could propel him up to the big leagues after being written off by many in 2024. (Daniel Labude)

I like how we have two Brewers back-to-back here in our ranks. They have completely different profiles but each emphasizes how diverse the pool of first base prospects can be. Blake Burke was the first-round pick by the Crew this past year. A big boy already at 21 years old, he hit 20 homers as a junior at Tennessee while impressively maintaining strong K and BB rates each season. The bat will need to carry his profile since he is locked in at first base already. Such an aggressive pick by Milwaukee shows they are believers so we should be as well.

Right behind him in our ranks, but several levels above him in development, is Tyler Black. A plus runner with an above-average hit tool and below-average game power, Black is a nontraditional player to roster at first base. While he’s penciled in as a bench player to open the year, Black’s lack of smack even with good contact will inhibit his fantasy impact (trying saying that out loud, it was hard enough to type)! I’d take a flyer on him though. With consistent playing time, I’d expect 25+ steals and likely multipositional eligibility. If he keeps that average up as anticipated, then you have a (dare I say it) improved Luis Arráez on your hands. That’ll play. (Chris Knock)

At the top of this tier is the smooth-swinging Ralphy Velazquez. So far in his young career, he’s shown good pitch recognition, natural power, and good launch angles. The potential is there and Cleveland has been doing a great job with player development, so look for him to move up the list quickly. (Drew Klein)

Tier 4

Two of my favorite prospects came in ranked side by side and happen to be in the same organization, Tony Blanco Jr. and Axiel Plaz. Both have enormous power, but drastically different frames. Blanco Jr. is a massive human being already and is just 19 years old, listed at 6-foot-7 and 243 pounds. He has some of the most natural power you will see in a prospect. His issue so far in his early career has been health, he’s only played in 79 games across three years (two at the Dominican Summer League and one at the Florida Complex League). Last year in 30 games, he hit .305/.385/.505 and added four home runs. If he can stay healthy in 2025, he is one of my deep-league prospect breakout picks. Plaz has similar big breakout potential in 2025. He played 2024 at Single-A Bradenton in the Florida State League and was in the 79th percentile or better there in numerous metrics: wOBACON, AverageEV, MaxEV, EV90th, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. His slash line didn’t show it, .207/.303/.408, but with more progression during the offseason he could dial everything in and be a true monster at High-A Greensboro this year. (Brian Labude)

This tier has many interesting names, but the two that stand out to me are Engelth Urena and Romeo Sanabria. Urena spent last season in the Complex League for 40 games. There he did everything you love to see from a teenage prospect. He hit for a great batting average (.301), got on base at a good rate (.420), didn’t strike out compared to his peers (11.7%), and actually walked more than he struck out (14.8%). He added some solid power with eight home runs and 11 doubles. He capped all of it off with a wRC+ of 161. It was a great season and it sets him up for a big breakout year in 2025. Sanabria will get knocked because he has routinely been older than most players for each level he has played in the minor leagues. However, he keeps putting up good numbers. Between Single-A, High-A, and Double-A he hit .288/.396/.427, with 11 home runs and 30 doubles. The in-game power hasn’t taken off, but it could come at any moment. He also had a 130 wRC+ on the year. In this tier, I am definitely keeping my eye on him. (Daniel Labude)

A deep name I want to highlight is Justin Gonzales of the Boston Red Sox. Listed at 6’4”, the kid is likely even taller. He’s got plus pull-side raw power and showed a mature eye for a player at his stage of development. In the DSL last summer, he walked 19 times compared to striking out in only 20 plate appearances. Add in 5 homers and you have a great combination. On the flip, his size, defensive position, and distance from the majors is a rough combination that may keep his development in check. Still, I’d watch list Gonzales in almost all but the deepest of leagues (where I’d grab him if available). For those who watch list him, get ready to pounce once you have some stateside statistics and games to watch. (Chris Knock)

I’ve added Engelth Urena to all my watch lists and will pick him up in my deepest leagues. His 2022 season was cut short by a hand injury and he missed 2023 due to knee surgery, but he removed all doubt in 2024 by ranking in the top three in the Florida Complex League in SLG, OPS, and home runs (more complete stats in Daniel’s write up above). This could be the make-or-break year for Blaze Jordan which is a tough thing to say about a 22-year-old. He was much talked about after being drafted by the Red Sox in 2020, put up good numbers in 2021, then has regressed steadily since.  Last year he was hitting .283 before breaking his finger, and just .253 after his return, so that might have been a factor. I’m not going so far as to predict a breakout season, but the skills were there once, so stay tuned. (Drew Klein)