This is a companion piece to our 2025 Dynasty League Rankings. The opinions below are my own and do not reflect the TDG consensus.

JACKSON HOLLIDAY, BALTIMORE ORIOLES (AGE: 21, RANK: 3)

When writing about players to avoid for dynasty leagues, I often feel like I am being forced into the role of the Tenth Man. It comes from a principle that is rooted in Devil’s Advocacy, but for the purposes of fantasy baseball, it is more along the lines of preparing for the worst-case scenarios. So when nine people in a room come to the same decision, it’s on the tenth person to challenge the conclusions of the others. It’s a lonely role at times and one that is difficult to push back against the majority. However, in this case, it truly is a necessity, in order to provide a complete picture of the fantasy baseball landscape.

With all of that in mind, let’s dive into my first avoid for the second base position. You might be shocked here, but I am using all of my skill and agility to avoid Jackson Holliday. Across the industry, he is virtually the unanimous choice as a top-three second baseman. As we continue forward, it is really important to remember this sentiment and refer to it throughout this article.

At the end of July last year, I highlighted Holliday as a faller in our consensus rankings and put a spotlight on his developmental flaws. To add to that, I also exposed his decrease in fantasy production at each level he has moved up to in the minor leagues and then ultimately at the major league level. To read about the argument I made then, be sure to check out the article. With Holliday’s 74 games at Triple-A and 60 games in the majors last season, we have ample statcast data to help give us a more robust snapshot of his profile than ever before.

In 2024, Holliday underwhelmed at Triple-A, but his underlying statcast numbers show a hitter who struggled with making good quality contact. In the 74 games mentioned, he slashed .271/.431/.477, while adding 10 home runs, and only eight stolen bases. His statistical profile does not pass the smell test of a top prospect in baseball, let alone one of the top second baseman. It is unquestionable that in the minor leagues he has great plate discipline and 2024 was no exception, with him having a 21.7% walk rate and a 22.3% strikeout rate. Looking deeper into his plate discipline and bat control, he had a 79.2% in-zone contact rate and a 33.1% whiff rate against secondary pitches. Those were good for 24th percentile and 49th percentile, respectively. His 8.5-degree average launch angle is also not conducive to racking up barrels, a batted ball that displays the perfect duality of launch angle and exit velocity (EV). This of course leads us to his exit velocities. He had an average EV of 90.3 mph, a 90th percentile EV of 103.5 mph (62nd percentile), and a max EV of 108.2 mph (44th percentile). All in all, his time at Triple-A, showed he was more of an average hitter with average underlying statcast data. Not the top prospect or one of the top dynasty second baseman.

Now, as for the statcast data from Holliday’s time in the major leagues, brace yourself. His 90th percentile EV and max EV increased by almost one mph each, up to 104.4 mph (63rd percentile) and 109.2mph (48th percentile) respectively. Even though his EV data improved compared to his time at Triple-A, they were still very poor when compared to other major league hitters. When you bring it back to him being the top prospect in baseball at the time and now ranked in the top tier of second baseman, it is even more bleak when looking at his plate discipline and bat control in more detail. He chased pitches at a 32% rate (58th percentile), he had an in-zone contact rate of 75.5% (7th percentile), and his whiff rate versus secondary pitches came in at 35.9% (30th percentile).

For me, Holliday has shown no signs of improving his profile, either from a statistical standpoint on the field or from the underlying statcast data. He is still very young, with 2025 being his age-21 season, so he has time to improve. I think the odds of him developing a better profile and doing it while at the major league level are low, given the pressure to produce for a playoff contender is very high. Also, when you bring it back to the price you will have to pay for the value you are getting, I am avoiding him at all costs moving forward.

MARCUS SEMIEN, TEXAS RANGERS (AGE: 34, RANK: 8)

My second avoid also comes from the top ten of our second base ranks, Marcus Semien. He is 34 years old and now on the downside of his career. Father Time is stalking him while wearing a cloak and disguising himself as the Grim Reaper. In 2024, Semien played like someone trying to be more than what they are. He hit .237/.308/.391, adding 23 home runs and stealing eight bases. His RBI totals dropped from 100 the year prior down to 74. About the only statistical categories that remained similar were runs scored (101) and games played (159). In fact, one of the best categories he can help with is stolen bases and even those have dried up, falling each of the past three seasons from 25 to 14 to 8.

What cannot be denied is the underlying statcast data that shows an aging animal falling behind the herd. His average launch angle has fallen year over year, from a high of 20.3 degrees in 2021 to 17 degrees in 2024. To compound this, he had a bat speed of 68.3 mph, which puts him in just the 10th percentile. Also adding to this scary picture is his average EV (87.4 mph) and hard-hit rate (35.2 mph) were in the 19th and 22nd percentile for the 2024 season respectively.

For Semien, it is looking like he can’t shake Father Time and will see his profile fall more and more with each passing year. As a top ten second baseman, he is someone I think is a must-avoid, because the price you have to pay to get him at that ranking will be lost, just like driving a new car off the dealership lot.

(Brian Labude)