Now that we’re halfway through the season, it’s time for our Annual Mid-Year Rankings.  To accompany the positional rankings, which are posted on the TDG website, we’ll feature some risers and fallers, and one writer will highlight The Next Big Thing for each position.

Enjoy and feel free to let us know what you think in the comments down below, find us on Twitter/X, or better yet, join our Discord!

Riser: Masyn Winn, St. Louis Cardinals (Preseason rank: 35, Mid-Year rank: 19)

There has been, and will continue to be, a great deal of volatility in dynasty shortstop rankings. Rankers looked at Winn’s 2023 performance in St. Louis and focused on the .179 batting average, which is admittedly hard to miss, and dropped him to 35 in our preseason rankings. The .196 BABIP and 47% ground ball rate could hardly be expected to produce anything much better than that.

This year has been a remarkably different story. Winn’s line drive rate has doubled to 26% and he’s spraying the ball equally to all fields, resulting in a .345 BABIP and a .287/.335/.416 slash line. With a contact rate of 85% (90% in-zone), he’s consistently putting the ball in play, and as long as he maintains that line drive rate, his batting average and on-base percentage is going to be high. He lacks power and speed and with all the talent available at the position, it’s not likely Winn will rise much higher than the top 15, but in a 15-team league, that makes him a starting shortstop. As players ranked above him, such as Volpe, Bichette, Kim, and Pena have hot and cold streaks, Winn’s consistency is something that a lot of fantasy managers will appreciate.

Drew Klein (aok_fan)

Faller: Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs (Preseason rank: 16, Mid-Year rank: 24)

The Dansby Swanson Q & A

Wasn’t he overrated to begin with?  Maybe, maybe not.  Since 2019, if you didn’t have one of the top shortstops on your roster, Dansby Swanson was the solid choice.  He could be counted on for over 20 home runs (adjusted for 2020), double-digit steals, and he played in lineups that were going to help him produce runs and RBI.

How long has this decline been going on? Last year, his batting average dipped, but an increased walk rate kept his OBP at a respectable .328. He still hit 22 home runs and the nine stolen bases is what you could always expect from him, aside from a career high of 18 in 2022.  So there were some signs of decline last year, but there were bright spots too.

And what about this year? This year, he’s virtually untradeable and in 15-team leagues he might even be droppable. The head-scratching part of all of this is that for most of his underlying stats, nothing much has changed in the past four years.  He still has a low chase rate (25%), average contact rates (73% overall, 79% in zone), and virtually no changes in exit velocity and hard-hit rates. The only stat with a significant change is his ground ball rate which has gone from 38% to 45% last year and 50% this year. It’s fairly obvious that more ground balls will result in lower BABIP, BA and OBP, so that’s not surprising, but it’s odd to me the only other metric that has changed significantly is his pull rate.

Which means what, exactly? Too many ground balls to the left side of the infield.

If he’s untradeable, are you dropping him?  Name value alone may be keeping him on rosters, and at 30 years old, there’s an argument to be made to be patient. I’m not ready to drop him yet unless there’s a pickup who will put me over the top.

Drew Klein (aok_fan)

Riser: Carson Williams, Tampa Bay Rays (Preseason rank: 34, Mid-Year rank: 23)

Carson Williams completed his 2023 season with some eye-popping stats for a 20-year-old at High-A. He displayed big power, as he slugged 23 home runs in 105 games, while also showing he could be a threat on the bases by swiping 17. The big knock on his game was the swing-and-miss issues that led to a monster 31.8% strikeout rate. At the conclusion of that season, he was at a pivotal crossroad, one which would see him fail or succeed based on the adjustments he would make at the plate. Everyone was hoping he could lower his strikeout rate and get past swing and miss issues.

Williams took the challenge head-on and started the 2024 season at a more advanced level, Double-A. For the first month of the season he cut the strikeout rate down to 26.8% and slashed .368/.415/.592. While his production has decreased each month since, he has shown that the strikeout numbers are remaining in the serviceable range 26.8%, 26.5%, 28.1%, and 25.7%.

The power and speed outlook for Williams still looks as bright as ever with him already crushing 14 home runs and stealing 24 bases. He might even have a chance at a 20/30 season this year and get a late season promotion up to Triple-A.

The more Williams can sustain the improvements he has made at the plate, the higher he will rise in the rankings and squarely affirm his status as a true top tier shortstop and dual threat fantasy stud for years to come.

Brian Labude (@Polar_Bear_Ball)

Faller: Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles (Preseason rank: 7, Mid-Year rank: 11)

The heir apparent to stardom and greatness, the number one prospect in baseball, everything was coming up aces for Jackson Holliday on April 10th, 2024. However, from the moment he made his major league debut, he looked overmatched and struggled for the duration of his stint with Baltimore. He went 2 for 36, with a 50% strikeout rate. Were the struggles a bump in the road, or a giant sinkhole trying to drag the future star down before he could get his career started?

It’s a rarity to see prospects debut in the major leagues and not experience a drop in their performance and a delay in their production as they adjust to the increased level of competition. However, I think Holliday was not ready for the promotion on a number of levels and was exposed once he made the jump. To explain why he faltered and as to why he has fallen in our rankings, you have to look at what he has done in the minor leagues.

Holliday has not swung the bat nearly enough in Triple-A this year and that is indicative of his entire career thus far. 44.1% of his at-bats are ending without the ball being put into play, which I believe led to and will lead to more struggles on the horizon for him. A similar story can be seen in his power and speed development. In 1,031 at-bats in his career, across all levels, he only has 23 home runs, equating to one home run for every 44.8 at-bats. For perspective, Junior Caminero has 54 home runs in 968 at-bats above Rookie-ball. This equates to one home run every 17.9 at-bats.

Looking at stolen bases, in 131 games above High-A, Holliday has only swiped 12 bases and has been caught stealing 3 times, for an 80% success rate on minimal attempts.

This is all highly concerning for me, the speed and power are not translating into games anywhere near what would be expected from the top prospect in baseball. Holliday is sliding down prospect rankings and conversely, positional rankings as well. To remain in the top-tier discussion as a prospect or even the positional rankings, he will need to show the in-game development with regard to the power and speed, otherwise, his dynasty value will continue to fall. As it stands, the power and speed are still projectable enough to not warrant any drastic drop, but if they remain stagnant, he will continue to slide.

Brian Labude (@Polar_Bear_Ball)

The Next Big Thing: Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (Mid-Season Rank: 3)

The next big thing at shortstop is actually a big shot who is proving all those doubters wrong, strikeouts be damned! Well, at least this season that is for sure. Elly De La Cruz is a star taking aim at the top two shortstops for fantasy and he is coming hard and fast down that line.

Coming into the season, De La Cruz was ranked 5th for shortstops, but there were some warts and question marks across the industry. The biggest issue was how well would his numbers play given his high strikeout rate. Last season over 98 games, he hit .235/.300/.453, with a .779 OPS. He dazzled with counting stats galore. He racked up 13 home runs, stole 35 bases, also adding seven triples, 15 doubles, 44 RBI, and 67 runs. He had all the tools, along with the numbers you can dream on, if he could get on base more. The issue was the vomit inducing 144 strikeouts, which came to a strikeout rate of 33.7%. Very troubling numbers when paired with an 8.2% walk rate.

It was a roaring start to this season over 30 games, which saw De La Cruz hit .279/.385/.577, .962 OPS, eight home runs, 17 stolen bases, a 13.9% walk rate, and a 30.3% strikeout rate. He was fighting back the analysts predicting the doom and gloom associated with super high strikeout rates. Then May came and so many naysayers were jumping for joy as he hit a wall and put up some sketchy numbers. He hit .208/.298/.287, .585 OPS, one home run, 14 stolen bases, walking 9.6% of the time, and a 34.8% strikeout rate. The power disappeared as the strikeouts increased into a scary range. Over the next 44 games though, superstar De La Cruz took shape again, as he hit .284/.364/.568, with a .932 OPS. The walk rate increased to 10.1% and he dropped the strikeout rate down under the mythical 30% mark, to 29.1%.

For Elly De La Cruz, his season as a whole has been worthy of superstar status in the fantasy world. His season numbers have improved dramatically over his 2023 season and that includes those gaudy counting stats. He has hit .262/.353/.496, with a .849 OPS. He has launched 18 home runs, swiped 51 bags, while adding 45 RBI, 70 runs, seven triples, and 21 doubles. He is on pace for 29 home runs and 82 stolen bases. The walk rate increased to 11% on the season, but there is still that pesky strikeout rate at 31%. Instead of the doom and gloom over strike three calls, let’s just dream on what could be, if the 22-year-old lowers the strikeouts as he gains experience and learns how major league pitchers attack him. A shortstop that can hit 30 home runs and steal 100 bases is not just a make-believe dream anymore, it could be within reach, and just a matter of time with De La Cruz. He is clearly a top-ten fantasy hitter this season and the potential is there with better strikeout rates to be the best of the best, the true next big thing.

Daniel Labude (@OrcaBaseball)