This is a companion piece to our 2025 Dynasty League Rankings. The opinions below are my own and do not reflect the TDG consensus.

MATT SHAW, CHICAGO CUBS (AGE: 23, RANK: 9)

Matt Shaw is on the cusp of making his Major League debut in a few months. As any frustrated dynasty manager knows, a team can keep a promising young player in the minor leagues for any number of reasons. Many of which don’t pertain to whether a player can help that team win. The Cubs have been guilty of this in the past, keeping Kris Bryant in the minors for six games out of spring training to delay his free agency by a season. This time around, the Cubs have two glaring holes. They don’t have anyone else to play third base at all. Second base could be another as Nico Hoerner has not yet resumed throwing (as of the end of January) after offseason elbow surgery.  These are currently two open major league positions that Shaw can play, giving him one of the best opportunities that a young player can hope for out of Spring Training.

Enough with the defense and roster talk. Shaw’s bat is what is most important to fantasy managers. In two minor league seasons Shaw has a slash line of .303/.384/.522. He finished last season with an excellent 30 games at Triple-A Iowa. Under the hood the numbers are interesting. He only swings at 60% of the pitches he sees in the strike zone, and swings at pitches that are out of the zone 30% of the time. Shaw somehow doesn’t strike out much (17% in Double-A) and that seems to be attributable to a ridiculous 75% contact rate on pitches out of the zone. He hits a few too many ground balls, north of 40% of batted balls, but he hits them hard.  His 90^th percentile exit velocity, max exit velocity, and average exit velocity are all relatively close.

It seems that the Cubs are holding the door open for him to walk into one of their open infield jobs. Barring an unfortunate injury or just an all-around terrible spring training Shaw will probably make his Major League Debut on Opening Day. Projections are muted for Shaw’s rookie year. This is likely due to his passive swing rates on strikes and a tendency to chase. If I were to make a prediction on him, I think his rookie year will resemble Colt Keith’s from a year ago. Struggles to start the season, then an adjustment that allows him to finish strong. The Cubs do not have other options for second or third base on February 1st. I expect a long runway in 2025 for him to make the necessary fixes if he’s having problems. That’s a great opportunity for a young player to have.

JOEY ORTIZ, MILWAUKEE BREWERS (AGE: 26, RANK: 30)

I’m sure that Joey Ortiz is not a popular choice as a target. I understand your skepticism, his 2024 season on the surface was underwhelming at best. His 2024 Baseball Savant page supports that skepticism. As a frugal person who can’t pass up free items, he presents an option as a low investment third baseman who could pay dividends quickly. Here’s why:

Ortiz’s 2024 season was split by a trip to the injured list on July 3^rd with a neck injury.  He first started reporting pain in late June, so I will make his split in the final week. As of June 25^th, Ortiz had slashed .278/.383/.459 with 7 home runs in 209 at-bats. He struck out only 16.4% of the time and walked 14%. After June 25^th, he slashed .204/.277/.342, striking out in 23.6% of his plate appearances and walking 8%. His xwOBA rolling chart on Baseball Savant also tells this story. Ortiz returned from the IL on July 12th. His final 250 plate appearances (they start on July 13th) show he was above league average upon reinstatement. By season’s end, he was well below average. XwOBA is measured using underlying data such as exit velocity, launch angle, and sprint speed depending on the batted ball type. Ortiz had fewer hard-hit balls and he hit them on the ground after his injury.

When drastic changes happen to a player’s stat line, I like to look for the reason why. Sometimes I don’t find anything. Other times I find an injury if things are going unexpectedly poor or a mechanical change when things are going well. Ortiz’s sudden downturn in xwOBA leads me right to his neck injury. Ortiz has good bat speed, he has a great idea of the zone, and when healthy makes a lot of contact. His sprint speed is 85^th percentile. I would take his Savant page with a grain of salt as it is a snapshot of his entire season. I think Ortiz can be a 20 home run, 20 steal third baseman. He might also add shortstop eligibility this season. Where I’m able to get him in drafts and in trades tells me that his former managers have already written him off, and that is the reason I’m picking him up when I can.

(Brandon Ring)