Early Season Prospect Breakouts – Fact or Fiction
Devin Fitz-Gerald, SS, WSH – Fact
Before a shoulder injury ended his season last year, Fitz-Gerald had been showing signs of a strong profile. His plate skills were strong at the Complex and Single-A Fredericksburg in 2025, with a 16.2% BB% and 13.9% K%. One of the best signs you can see in a minor leaguer is a higher walk than strikeout rate with acceptable ISO (.180 in 2025 for Fitz-Gerald). In the early goings of 2026 he has maintained this skill, while skyrocketing his ISO to .325. He is a clear top-25 prospect, even if some of the power gains drop off as he progresses.
Ronny Cruz, SS, WSH – Fiction
The National’s new development system is on fire! Cruz was arguably the most significant major breakout of the early season, hitting three home runs at Single-A Fredericksburg and four at High-A Wilmington, showing off a stellar power stroke that had been lauded by scouts. However, a contact rate in the low 60s and concerning chase metrics have me suspicious that this will hold. In fact, he has already cooled off in May. While Cruz is enticing as a five tool profile, this kind of profile typically struggles as it moves up the ladder and faces more advanced pitching.
Eric Hartman, OF, ATL – Fact
Hartman’s breakout reminds me a lot of Fitz-Gerald‘s breakout so far this year, as both guys are finding incredible amounts of power and have already established strong plate skills (although Fitz-Gerald has shown stronger plate skills). Also they are both 20 years old at Double-A, which makes it easier for me. Hartman has already doubled his home-run output from last year (12 this year vs. 5 in 2025). What’s the most exciting about Hartman is that he has managed such strong numbers despite struggling at High-A Rome, which is historically a difficult spot for hitters. Minor league wRC+ doesn’t account for home park environment so it’s almost reasonable to say that Hartman has been better than one would think just looking at his numbers, which have been among the best in the minor leagues to this point.
Franklin Arias, SS, BOS – Fiction
Arias went on an absolute tear in late April, but I am going to be stubborn as I think Arias is still the same guy he was coming into the season. I am admittedly not entirely sure what has me doubting this breakout, but there is something deep within my being that has me doubting whether there is more than 20 home run power in here. Much of my hesitancy comes from my moderate distaste for these low walk and low strikeout profiles (8.8% BB% and 11.5% K% this season). This tends to be a sign of a chase heavy approach that can be exploited at the higher levels. I think Arias ends up with the middle to above average impact with the bat, and a great real life player, but one who leaves something to be desired for those who are quick to rush him into the top 10-15s of their rankings.
Xavier Neyens, 3B, HOU – Fact
Neyens is one of the most interesting Astros prospects in recent memory. Like Cruz, he has impressive raw power, but he importantly sits around a 70% contact rate. His 32.8% K% is actually a higher mark than Cruz’s 26.7%, however I would attribute this more-so to Neyen’s propensity for working a count, as he holds a 22.4% BB% to Cruz’s 11.0%. For how imposing his power is, the hit tool and approach are strong enough to hold the breakout.
A.J. Ewing, 2B/OF, NYM – Fiction
Ewing’s start to the season at Double-A Binghamton was really exciting for a guy who had done a lot of good in 2025. He quickly popped two home runs, nearly reaching his total from the previous season, and continued his trend of strong plate skills. He understandably slowed a bit at Triple-A Syracuse, and as we all know has quickly been moved up to help an ailing Mets team. I think Ewing is going to be a good player, as do I think Arias will, but I am personally pumping the brakes on the dreams of power for both these guys. There is definitely fantasy appeal for Ewing, who is going to steal a ton of bases, especially if he can tap into the next level of power. I am personally hesitant to believe he will take a Carroll or PCA-esque jump due to the lack of ISO as he has climbed. He hits a lot of ground balls, and his EVs have not been as impressive as I expected according to some reports I had heard. Of the ‘fictions’ on this list, I do think this is one I could eat my words on most. I personally put my money where my mouth was on Ewing when I recently traded him to get Walcott, who’s ceiling is much more enticing to me, even if I have to wait.
Cooper Flemming, SS, TBR – Fact
Flemming is the reason you should always be drafting high school prospects with projectable frames when available in the mid to late parts of your fantasy draft. If there is one thing to take away from this article, it is that you should be scooping any player who fits this mold and was given a 2nd round slot value. Relevant players of this ilk include Roman Anthony, Gunnar Henderson, and Caleb Bonemer, among others. The hit tools on these high school prospects can only be so certain, providing a great deal of variety in outcomes, which is what you want in those middle to late parts of your draft. It’s easy to project average at minimum power on the Cooper’s 6’3” frame, which when paired with his already established plus plate skills (12.9% BB% and 15.2% K% and likelihood to stick on the infield provides him an easy path to being top 50 prospect by years end.
Caden Bodine, C, TBR – Fiction
Bodine’s minuscule 3.7% K% strikeout rate is frankly remarkable. It’s accompanied by a .250 ISO, so he is not entirely selling out on power. Even yet, I am hesitant to anoint him as a top 100 fantasy prospect. The primary issue is that he is doing this at Single-A Charleston as a 22 year old, so until he is given the opportunity to prove it at High-A and Double-A, I will be for cooling the jets. Additionally, the bar to clear as a catcher in fantasy is obviously higher.
Anthony Eyanson, SP, BOS – Fact
Eyanson is the Cam Schlittler of this season. I am all in. He was already a good pitcher, then the Red Sox poured their magic velocity sauce on him and he is straight up dominant. Double-A will be an ultimate test, but the stuff is so strong that it is difficult to see him slowing down.
Junior Sanchez, SP, ARI – Fiction
This is admittedly a gut-feel thing, but I struggle to buy any pitching prospect who is shorter than 6 feet tall. He sits low-mid 90s, which I think will lead to struggles down the road.
Miguel Sime, SP, WAS – Fact
Sime reminds me a lot of his big org-mate Susana. These flamethrower profiles tend to stay highly ranked on their sheer potential alone, and I believe in control being a thing that can be figured out at any point on the long road of pitching development (just look at Misiorowski). In leagues where RPs are extra valuable, he’s even more exciting. There is obvious risk, but he is more than worth taking the shot on.
Bonus: Current Targets – Darell Morel, Alexander Frias, CJ Hughes
Small note: There is a ton of value in being active during the start of Complex and DSL ball. Ensuring that you have a few spots to churn the small samples is invaluable and one of the easiest ways to build a strong farm for your dynasty teams with minimal cost.