Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals (ranked 9)

The first player I’m targeting here is Kansas City Royal Vinnie Pasquantino. It’s not a very hot take to say he’s a good player, after all, he’s in our top ten, but it’s the back half of the top ten, and he’s on his way up. If you look at the players ahead of him, Vladdy and Kurtz aren’t going anywhere soon, and Basallo will also be climbing the ranks, but Father Time is undefeated, and the other players will start slipping. You can’t convince me that Vinny P won’t be in the top four this time next year.  

Last year he hit a career high 32 home runs and 113 RBI. There were improvements from the previous year in his barrel percentage (7.1% to 10.8%), HR/FB rate (10.1% to 14.3%), and all three components of his slash line (.262/.315/.446 to .264/.323/.475). Combine the increased barrel, higher launch angles, and home run rates with a swinging strike rate under 8% and in-zone contact rates over 90%, and you have a recipe for excellent offensive output. And I don’t think he was joking on a recent podcast (Fangraph’s Effectively Wild) when he said he picked up some base stealing tips from Josh Naylor. Lastly, in case you missed it, the Royals moved in their outfield walls this offseason, which is another reason why 40 home run seasons are in reach for the Pasquatch. There are always a variety of fantasy options at first base, but it could be worth the trade capital to lock in a future top-four first baseman for the foreseeable future. 

Kyle Manzardo, Cleveland Guardians (ranked 19)

The second player to target for those of you looking further down the list is Kyle Manzardo. Yes, I see last year’s .234 batting average, but I also see the .265 BABIP and the uncharacteristic 25% K-rate. His swinging strike rates have been higher than in the minors, and he is also swinging at more balls out of the zone. In spite of this, my optimism lies in two areas. The first is that these stats, which are to be expected when facing major league pitchers rather than minor leaguers, are correctable as he gets more experience. The second is that his hard hit rates, barrel percentages, and exit velocities have all been increasing steadily, and last year his HR/FB ratio nearly doubled from 8.9% to 16.3%. To me, it’s clear he’s been changing his approach to the plate, which is why I think he’s poised for a breakthrough.