This is a companion piece to our 2025 Dynasty League Rankings. The opinions below are my own and do not reflect the TDG consensus.

Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

Don’t get me wrong, I really like Garrett Crochet. He has a lot of attributes that I look for when I’m prospecting for pitching. Crochet throws hard. His main fastball is a 4-seamer that features 15.6 inches of rise and 8 inches of tail according to Statcast. It is a very effective pitch that he throws over 50% of the time. He pairs it with a cutter that is not quite as hard but runs in the other direction. Velocity is one of the top drivers in pitcher success and has been for a long time. The other less discussed factor is extension. The closer to the batter a pitcher releases the ball, the harder that pitch is perceived by the hitter. Pairing high velocity (97.2 mph on average for Crochet) with a high extension at release (7.1 feet) is a combination that is extremely hard to hit. This bears out as opposing hitters had an expected slugging of .321 in 2024 off Crochet’s 4-seam fastball, ranking it as a top 10 individual pitch in all baseball amongst starting pitchers.

The rub on Crochet is his injury history. It’s a long one. In 2020 he experienced shoulder soreness that delayed the start of his season before Covid finished it off. He was drafted by the White Sox 11^th overall after one start. The White Sox had Crochet pitch out of the bullpen in 2021, giving him 54 innings of work. He missed all of the 2022 and most of the 2023 season following Tommy John surgery. Why am I concerned about injuries given Crochet returned, threw 150 healthy innings, and had elite production?

Injuries can be predictive, unfortunately. Recent studies, one done by Major League Baseball in particular, did a deep dive into contributing factors to the recent increase in pitching injuries. One of the major contributors is throwing maximum effort at a high frequency. Here is a histogram from Statcast of Crochet’s fastball velocity in 2024:

As you can see, most of Crochet’s fastballs are thrown at near his maximum velocity. Higher velocity means more torque on a pitcher’s elbow. Coupling a maximum-effort approach to pitching with a large bump in workload could be a recipe for an injury sooner rather than later.

Crochet effectively missed all of 2020, pitched 54 innings in 2021, none in 2022, and only 12 innings in 2023. In 2024 Crochet pitched 146 innings. The White Sox didn’t allow him to go more than 3-4 innings after the trade deadline to manage his workload, but that is still a mammoth rise in innings. Not just speaking year over year, but 2024 vs. his total innings over the previous four seasons.

I do not believe that Crochet is a guarantee to miss a lot of time in 2025. I’m avoiding Crochet because I do think that there are warning factors. They’re saying that in the next couple of years, he is more likely to be hurt than most other arms. His price tag in trades, redrafts, and startup drafts is sky high right now. It could mean that I’m missing out on an elite starting pitcher in 2025 if he stays healthy. The factors above tell me that I should not be investing as heavily as would be required to get him. I hope I’m wrong because Crochet has shown that when he’s on the mound he is a dominator.

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

The pitcher formerly known as “Fastball” Freddy Peralta has changed his pitch frequently since becoming a full-time starter in 2021. His fastball percentage dropped from almost 80% to 53% in 2024 and he’s mixed in more changeups and sliders.  After battling some nagging shoulder injuries early in his career, Peralta has been durable the past two seasons making 30 and 32 starts respectively.

Peralta runs high strikeout rates as well as high walk rates.  He’s finished 6^th and 5^th in the National League in strikeouts the last two years. This leads to high pitch counts early in games. Peralta averaged 5.5 innings per start. Considering a starter needs 5 innings to get a win, he is going to have a hard time earning them even on a team as successful as the Brewers have been. This means he is a three-category starter (K’s, ERA, WHIP). We’ve established that Peralta is a strong strikeout contributor. However, his ERA and WHIPs relative to other pitchers in his NFBC draft range are both higher than most. This leaves Peralta as a superior contributor in only strikeouts.

Peralta has seen his metrics decline from 2022 to 2024. Even his extension, which was an elite 7 feet in 2022 is down to a 71^st percentile 6.7 feet last season. His pitch movement has not changed much, and his pitch mix has only added a lower-frequency changeup (15%) instead of a curveball. The problem I see is Peralta’s fastball was aided by his elite extension. His extension has trended downward, and his batted ball profile has gotten worse. Peralta has never been a ground ball pitcher, but he has gone from a 40% ground ball rate in 2022 to 36% in 2024. His hard-hit rate has gone from 26.9% to almost 32%. Peralta’s barrel rates went from 3.5% to almost 9%. All of this combines to Peralta giving up 26 home runs in each of the last two seasons. Given his near 10% walk rate it’s not hard to understand why his expected ERA and FIPs have also steadily risen in the last three seasons. When Peralta gives up a home run, it’s likely with someone on base.

Peralta is currently being drafted in NFBC’s in the same range as Logan Webb, Spencer Schwellenbach, Hunter Greene, Roki Sasaki and Tanner Bibee. Peralta is older than all those pitchers, despite only being 28 years old himself. Due to all of Peralta’s metrics declining, particularly his extension which allows his 94 mile per hour fastball to get on hitters quicker than they expect, I am avoiding Peralta in 2025.

(Brandon Ring)