Every year, we at the TDG office identify Risers and Fallers from our consensus rankings. But how did we get here!? And what’s real and what’s noise? Well, the Gurus are here to help. In each “Risers and Fallers” article, the Gurus will take you on an explanatory journey as to why these players have seen a fortunate rise, or an unfortunate turn toward their demise. Thanks for reading!

RISING: Iván Herrera, St. Louis Cardinals (Age 24, Current Rank: 22, Previous Rank: 35)

Iván Herrera was signed out of Panama in 2016 as a part of the St. Louis Cardinals international free agent class. He climbed steadily through the Cardinals’ system and produced solid numbers at each stop. He made his Major League debut in 2023 playing 13 games, then spent most of his 2024 season with the Cardinals.

Herrera has been a consistent performer throughout his career. At every level, he has shown a patient approach, high contact rates, and the ability to hit for average. His power has stalled since hitting 17 home runs in 2021 at Double-A Springfield. Herrera hit just 6 home runs in 2022 at Triple-A Memphis then 10 more in 2023. Through 440 minor league games, he has a very solid .280/.392/.434 slash line.

He hasn’t hit many home runs, but he does have power. His exit velocities are excellent, with a 112 miles per hour maximum and a 105.3 miles per hour 90^th percentile. His zone contact rate was above average at 84.3%, but he only swung at 60% of those pitches he saw in the strike zone. He was only slightly more aggressive at Triple-A, swinging at 68% of pitches in the strike zone. Herrera is selective in the strike zone, so it makes sense that he would not chase pitches out of the zone either.

Herrera’s swing is in the launch angle sweet spot 38.2% of the time per Statcast, which is near elite. He pairs that with above-average bat speed and barrel percentages. Herrera hits 43% of his batted balls on the ground, which explains his lack of home runs despite how hard he hits the ball. He hits more line drives than league average, and fewer fly balls. His home run to fly ball percentage is league average at 9.4%.

I can see a solid catching option going forward in Herrera. His exit velocity and launch angle metrics suggest he can add some home run punch to his line that should include a high batting average and on-base percentage. I don’t think he’s likely to ever hit in the middle of the Cardinals’ order, but he can be a good contributor. Herrera is probably not a 600 plate appearance lineup anchor who is a DH on his off days. He is more of the lion’s share of a two-catcher system type.

He is still young and developing power, so this outlook can change. The Cardinals moved Willson Contreras to first base this offseason, which clears a direct path to playing time in 2025. I think it’s reasonable to expect 400 plate appearances this season with a .280 average and 10 home runs while hitting out of the 6^th through 8^th spot in the lineup.

FALLING: Sean Murphy, Atlanta Braves (Age: 30, Current Rank: 17, Previous Rank: 7)

Sean Murphy suffered an oblique injury on Opening Day in 2024. He was out for two months and never got on track. His playing time by the end of the season was usurped by Travis d’Arnaud. Catcher’s bats can age quicker than most position players’ due to the extra wear and tear on their bodies, but Murphy is only entering his age-30 season. Is it already time for a severe drop in the dynasty league catching ranks?

Murphy produced a career-worst slash line of .193/.284/.352 in 2024. He hit 10 home runs in 72 games, but only five doubles. His extra-base hit power was almost non-existent. His walk rate was in line with career norms at 10.2%, and his strikeout rate was also normal at 25.4%. Prior to 2024 he produced a below-average OPS+ one time in his six-year career, and that was a 98 OPS+ in 2021, or only 2% below average. In 2024, he posted a 76 OPS+.

Murphy’s bat speed was down 1.5 miles per hour, which is not insignificant. His maximum exit velocity was down 2 miles per hour, and his average EV was down 2.5.  His swing path flattened to a 10.5-degree angle, down from 13.5. Finally, his barrel percentage was down from 15.8% in 2023 to 9.6% in 2024. These numbers had a hand in his 13% rise in ground ball rate. Over the course of one season, he went from having well above-average metrics in all these categories in 2023 to well below average.

It does sound bleak, but it’s not all bad. Murphy is an excellent defender at an important defensive position. His glove will keep him in the lineup. Travis d’Arnaud is now playing for the Los Angeles Angels, and projected backup Chadwick Tromp is not likely to take much playing time from Murphy. Should he fail to regain his form, top prospect Drake Baldwin is a possibility to step in after a strong 2024 season. Baldwin is not on the Braves’ 40-man roster yet, and they are unlikely to bring him up to be a backup. I suspect it would take another injury to Murphy for Baldwin to be a serious threat in 2025.

I don’t think we can ignore Murphy’s 2024 season completely. The timing of his injury likely made it difficult for him to get into a rhythm at the plate. Because of this, I’m also not ready to write him off yet. Most projection systems aren’t ready either. The FanGraphs systems all project him to be much better than 2024, if not quite to his 2022-23 season standards. Catchers age quickly, but they don’t often fall off a cliff. I think Murphy can bounce back and be relevant, but probably not to the level that made him an upper-tier fantasy catcher.

(Brandon Ring)