Today we discuss #11 – #30 on the First Basemen Consensus Rankings!

#11 – #20

This range might be the most fun grouping of players on this list. You can still find some reliable veterans who should maintain their production for the next few years, and while Samuel Basallo cracked the top 10 of our dynasty rankings at the position, this is where the other top prospects make their debuts. It’s likely that many of these players will be in the top 10 for years to come as the veterans at the top gracefully make room.

After spending the 2023 season between complex ball and single-A, Bryce Eldridge shot through the minors in 2024, with brief stints at both AA and AAA to finish out his age-19 season. Eldridge also asserted himself in the Arizona Fall League to round out his 2024 season, and enters 2025 with a chance to make his major league debut before seasons end. He’s got big-time power, and the 6’-7” lefty already has Giants fans daydreaming about kayakers fighting for his long balls in McCovey Cove.

It remains to be seen whether Coby Mayo will spend the majority of his career at first base or at third, but something that isn’t a question is that Mayo has mastered the minors at this point and is biding his time for an opening in the majors. Don’t be discouraged by Mayo’s disappointing 17-game sample in the majors in 2024 as he was never really given consistent playing time. He shouldn’t be faulted for struggling to transition to both major-league pitching AND being a situational bat off the bench for the first time in his career.

Nick Kurtz and Jack Caglianone were the top two first basemen selected in the 2024 amateur draft, with both players showing flashes of what tantalized the Athletics and the Royals respectively to close out the 2024 season. Kurtz is higher than Caglianone on our rankings for a few reasons. His eye at the plate, ability to make consistent contact, and his path to playing time giving him both a safer fantasy floor and an earlier estimated arrival to the big leagues.

And the final prospect in this section of our rankings is Xavier Isaac. Isaac was dominant in 2023, spending most of the season at single-A before closing out the season with a dozen games at high-A. Expectations were sky-high for the Rays first baseman heading into 2024, and while Isaac hit for a very respectable .264 average and 18 home runs between high-A and double-A, his strikeout rate climbed to 30.1% at high-A and then climbed again to 40.6% at Double A. The quantity of strikeouts should concern even the most risk-tolerant fantasy managers, however, it should also be said that Isaac was a different player after missing two weeks in the middle of the season with an undisclosed injury. To say that 2025 is an important season for Isaac would be an understatement, but he could reward patient dynasty managers who don’t take the temptation to move him before the season.

This range also features Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Colt Keith right in the middle, two young players with MLB roster spots who have a lot to prove in 2025. Encarnacion-Strand arrived in Cincinnati in 2022 in the deal that sent Tyler Mahle to Minnesota, and he gave Reds fans plenty to be excited about over his first 63 games in the majors in 2023, hitting .270 with 13 home runs. Encarnacion-Strand was expected to anchor the middle of the Reds lineup in 2024, but his age-24 season ended up being almost completely lost. He was limited to just 29 games before opting to have season-ending wrist surgery in mid-July, and in those 29 games, he hit for a bleak .190 average with just two home runs. Encarnacion-Strand should be fully healthy heading into 2025, however, his path to everyday playing time is considerably more complicated in a crowded Reds infield. But if he can regain his form, 30+ home runs isn’t out of the question, and the Reds would be hard-pressed to leave him on the bench very often.

Colt Keith looked to have the second base job locked down in Detroit after a very promising rookie season in 2024. However, the Tigers signed Gleyber Torres to cover the keystone for the upcoming season, and have announced that they’ll be sliding Keith over to 1st base for 2025. Keith hit 27 home runs in the minors in 2023 but managed just 13 over a full season in the majors in 2024. It’s not uncommon for a young player’s power to dip before bouncing back in the majors, and it’s really encouraging that his strikeout rate stayed steady through the transition. Keith is just 23 years old, and while he won’t be a big source of stolen bases, he profiles as a solid 4-category contributor for years to come and could touch 25 home run power in his prime.

And to round out this group of 10, we’ve got three veteran bats in Cody Bellinger, Christian Walker, and Jake Burger. Interestingly enough, all three of these players changed teams this off-season, with Bellinger going from the Cubs to the Yankees, Walker going from the Diamondbacks to the Astros, and Burger going from the Marlins to the Rangers. Walker is the oldest of the group, as he’ll turn 34 as the 2025 season gets underway. Despite the short porch in left field in his new home park, Walker doesn’t seem like he’ll benefit too much in the home run department, as his expected career home runs in Daikin Park are just two greater (147) than his expected home runs at his prior home park, Chase Field (145).

Jake Burger is the youngster in this group as he’ll celebrate his 29th birthday a few weeks into the 2025 season, but in some ways, Burger feels younger as he got a later start to his major league career. Burger began his career with the White Sox before being traded in 2023 to Miami, where he concluded a breakout campaign that saw him club 34 home runs. He backed up his 2023 performance with a 29 home run season in 2024 and enters 2025 in a much better lineup with the Rangers. The much improved supporting cast may have the adverse effect of sending Burger’s bat lower in the lineup than he is accustomed to, but there’s no reason to think that we shouldn’t expect 30 home run seasons to be the norm for him throughout his prime years.

Cody Bellinger has been a tough player to pin down over his career, with huge year-over-year variance in his numbers. While he hit just 18 home runs last season, his lowest total in any season where he played at least 130 games, he kept his strikeout rate down below 16% for the second consecutive season, and there’s reason to be optimistic that the move to Yankee Stadium will provide a similar lift to his power numbers that it has to so many lefties before him. Bellinger also gives you a bit more speed than a typical first baseman, with 10-15 stolen bases being a nice add-on to his profile. It should also be noted that Bellinger is expected to cover center field for the Yankees this season, so it remains to be seen how long his first base eligibility will remain.

(David Gofman)

#21 – #30

This is an interesting bunch of names down here. Some are viable win-now 1B or CI pieces, a few have flickers of potential, and others have fantasy futures hanging by a thread. Who’s who? Let’s dive in:

Tyler Soderstrom has small sample-size alarms blasting in my face, but he’s worth the gamble at this point in his career and value arc. His 40% K-rate in May skews the season-long view but he never had another month over 30%. In fact, he had two separate months with under 20% strikeouts in the second half. His SwSt was 13% season-long, so I’m leaning in on the rough May being the outlier. I anticipate his 60-grade power to shine this year and the developing Athletic supporting cast to make him a riser by mid-season. 

Similar to Soderstrom, I think there’s great value in Michaels Busch and Toglia along with Kyle Manzardo in this group. After the trade to the Cubs, Michael Busch showed us the talent that we all were patiently waiting for the last few years: 21 Homers, 138 R+RBI, and a .335 OBP over last year. That seems in line with what to expect going forward while he continues to get the lion’s share of innings at first base on the North Side. Michael Toglia fulfilled the power dreams we’ve been waiting on for years. Last year he became the poster child of “yeah he strikes out a lot, but when he connects…whooo baby”. He’s a riskier proposition than many around here but who doesn’t love getting a potential HR leader this late? Manzardo is another player who almost was starting to get the Quad-A label thrown around. Intermittent playing time in his first MLB go-round last year helped shape that perception. But on his second try, admittedly with most PAs after rosters expanded, he started mashing in the majors. If his 2025 triple slash is anything remotely close to his September line of .270/.333/.540, Manzolorian will be a top 10 dynasty asset in a year. 

Out of the veterans in this grouping, I will admit to you (and reluctantly to my cohost on Join the Ranks) that Sal Perez is a great get still. He’s playing in a TON of games still and you likely would prefer to roster him at your catcher spot. But he just had another mid-20s homer year and added 150+ R+RBIs. It’s great consistency from the ageless wonder. I am starting to believe he’s such a warrior that he’s the next Nelson Cruz putting up All-Star or similar numbers until he’s 40 years old. Luis Arráez has value in average leagues, but he’s well known at this point for doing one thing really damn well. I tend to not target that type of player but I won’t be upset getting him this low in a start-up dyno.Yandy Díaz is another name I’m not in on. He’s kinda the OBP version of Arráez, though Díaz did finally put those giant biceps to use a few years ago reigniting the dream of an OBP power gawd. It was more of a flicker and unfortunately, I wouldn’t count on it by rostering him. 

Lastly, I’ll end with the final two names in my blocking: Jhonkensy Noel and Nolan Schanuel. Big Christmas (aka Jhonkensy Noel) is similar to Toglia a year ago. Big-time power with big-time swing and miss. The difference to me is that his K-rates are solidly in the 30% range and the Cleveland organization isn’t currently giving him consistent PAs at a position. He’s worth a bench spot incase he does break through but I wouldn’t want to count on him to start at the 1B or CI spot on my fantasy roster. Schanuel is another I’m not fully in on but for different reasons. He’s an OBP machine and will play consistently for the Angels. I squint and see Ty France in fantasy potential. Yeah, France had a good season and a half, but otherwise was a constant ‘sleeper’ pick that just kept hitting the snooze button. Similar to Noel, I don’t want him at 1B but I’m more lenient to keeping him at CI because Schanuel will be a stat accumulator at worst.

(Chris Knock)