Michael Arroyo is not in our top tier of second base prospects. I understand that the expectation of a Spotlight article is that I write about a player in the tip-top tier. In other articles, I’ve mentioned that I am a frugal person. I don’t think the price tag in a dynasty league on our tier one players is ever going to be higher unless they ascend to their star ceilings. For someone like me, the time to acquire them in my leagues has passed for now. Therefore, I want to spotlight a prospect who can hit his way into the upper tier but isn’t there yet. Arroyo fits that bill.

He signed a record bonus for a player from Colombia by the Seattle Mariners in 2022, and while he’s not a big guy, standing 5’8”, he has a strong build. Arroyo started out as a shortstop but has already migrated down the spectrum to second base at age 19. That looks to be his defensive home going forward, as his arm does not give hope for a potential move to third base. I think we’re looking at a future bat-first second baseman, which is going to put a lot of pressure on his bat. Fortunately, he may have an appropriate offensive profile.

That being said, or a smaller player, Arroyo has displayed impressive power. In 231 career minor league games he has 95 extra base hits including 30 home runs. Arroyo split his season in 2024 evenly between Low-A Modesto and High-A Everett. His combined slash line was .285/.400/.509, which is excellent for a player 2 to 3 years younger than his competition. Arroyo is not an efficient base-stealer, stealing only 30 bases in 44 attempts.

A snapshot of his High-A overall production shows a 26% strikeout rate, a 20% chase rate, and a 76% zone contact rate. Arroyo took about 100 plate appearances to adjust after his promotion. A look at his rolling charts is encouraging. After those 100 plate appearances, his strikeout rate was below league-average, and his zone contact increased to over 80% by the end of the season. I would not call his first 100 plate appearances a struggle, but the ability to adjust is important. His rolling charts suggest that he might be able to make critical adjustments going forward with helps make his offense more sustainable at the upper levels. One aspect that did not improve was his chase rate, as it increased he also increased his frequency of swinging at balls in the strike zone. This dropped Arroyo’s walk-rate to below league-average by the end of the year.

Arroyo has an encouraging batted ball profile to go with a good approach at the plate. His ground ball rates are below 35%, he hits fly balls at a 39% clip, and 46% of his batted balls are pulled. While he played in friendly home parks in 2024, he also showed that he could lift the ball over the fence to all fields. Given his size and young age, that is impressive.

I believe the Mariners could challenge Arroyo right away in 2025 with an assignment to Double-A. It doesn’t seem like High-A holds any mysteries for his advanced bat, and he does not need to be placed on Seattle’s 40-man roster until after the 2026 season to protect him from the Rule V draft so they can be patient which the Mariners have been known to do. He has fallen down the defensive spectrum to second base, so he will need to blast down the door to the Majors with his bat to arrive sooner. If there is a player in the low minors who can do exactly that, it’s Arroyo. I believe his approach, quick bat, and surprising power could make him an upper-tier second baseman. It seems reasonable to expect him to hit for a respectable average, hit over 20 home runs, and if he can improve his stolen base efficiency he can approach 10-15 steals. The possibility that Arroyo will exceed those numbers is what makes him exciting at a shallow fantasy position.

(Brandon Ring)