THE DYNASTY GURU’S 2025 PLAYERS TO TARGET: SECOND BASE
This is a companion piece to our 2025 Dynasty League Rankings. The opinions below are my own and do not reflect the TDG consensus.
Luke Keaschall, Minnesota Twins (AGE: 22, RANK: 25)
Among a relatively weak second-base prospect pool, I am particularly excited about Luke Keaschall heading into 2025. Following his strong pro-debut in 2023, Keaschall exploded in the first half of 2024, putting up a 187 WRC+ in 197 ABs at High-A with 7 HRs and 14 SBs. He cooled slightly at Double-A, posting a 138 WRC+ over 267 ABs with 8 HRs and 9 SBs. A Tommy-John surgery ended Keaschall’s season in August, but not before he was able to show off his blend of strong contact skills (82.4% contact rate), approach (13.4% BB / 17.2% K), and power-speed combination. I would argue the need for surgery made his season all the more impressive. It has been shown that TJS has a significant impact on hitters in the season before they undergo surgery. This recent study, which self-admits to having a small sample size, notes that hitters experienced a drop in ISO and OPS in the season they first experienced the injury. Thus, it is evident that playing through the injury likely hampered what could have been an even more impressive season from Keaschall.
Looking forward, Keaschall should begin to recover some of the lost OPS from the past season, although it may take longer for his ISO to recover. Anecdotally, Bryce Harper was able to recover much of the power he had lost following his TJS and Shohei Ohtani managed even more HRs than before the surgery. Suffice to say, while Keaschall may lose some power next year, the surgery is not a death sentence for a player who already has an average to fringe-plus power tool. Do not be concerned by a slow start from Keaschall. In fact, leverage it as a chance to target him even more.
So given the concerns with his power, why is Keaschall a target? In a season where Keaschall’s output should have been at its lowest, he still managed to be an impact bat. While being a year younger than Kristian Campbell, he actually outperformed him at High-A. Campbell’s ability to continue surging through the higher levels of the minors is why he is considered a consensus top-five prospect, but it must be considered that Keaschall’s injury may have stopped him from ever having that chance. Call me crazy, but I am currently preferring Keaschall to Travis Bazzana, who projects for a similar HR/SB blend, but lacks the track record at the major league level.
By consensus, Keaschall is a top-50 prospect. I expect him to rise in rankings as someone who can provide you production within all five categories. His potential to produce 20/20 seasons with high OBP should be especially valuable in a second-base landscape which is filled with players who are limited to 10 HR power.
Luis Rengifo, Los Angeles Angels (AGE: 27, RANK: 19)
Of the plethora of MLB second-basemen who make weak contact and steal bases, Luis Rengifo is my favorite. I have seen traded in almost every league I am in. This shows me that if you are willing to target him, someone is likely to be open to moving him. Now, why should you want this outcast of my dynasty leagues? First, his positional flexibility that covers second and third base is invaluable, especially in leagues carrying both MI and CI lineup spots. Second, I believe his 2024 season is flying under the radar.
Among second-basemen with 300 PAs (phew he just made it at 304 PAs), Rengifo ranked fifth with a .347 OBP. This put Rengifo ahead of other speedy second-basemen like Bryson Stott, Nico Hoerner, Brice Turang and the not-so-speedy *checks notes* Luis Arraez. But Joe! Rengifo only stole six bases in 2023, surely he is not a speed demon? Well, Rengifo must’ve had ants in his pants in 2024, stealing 24 bases in his 304 PAs. Extrapolating (a dangerous game) this to a full season puts Rengifo at 45+ SBs.
To pour some water on my fire, I must admit Statcast is not as big a fan of Rengifo. A .262 xBA suggests Rengifo got lucky in his 304 PAs (.300 batting average), which together with his career-high .339 BABIP suggests some regression is to come for Rengifo. Even with some regression in his batting average, Rengifo should be productive, as he did manage a .339 OBP in 2023 with only a .264 batting average. Additionally, Rengifo recorded a 37th percentile sprint speed so maybe he isn’t the speediest demon. I do not give too much weight to these sprint speeds, however, as guys like Freddie Freeman have shown if you want to steal you can. Rengifo has shown that desire.
I do not like to bet against Statcast, but in Rengifo’s case I will. He is for the first time in his career slotted to have a starting gig all to himself going into 2024, projected to bat 2nd for an Angels lineup that is sneaky solid. If Rengifo is able to finally blossom in this full-time role, blending the power and patience shown in 2023 (16 HR & 9.2% BB) with the willingness to run he showed in 2024, then he should provide immense value in 2025.
Bonus Targets: Gavin Lux, Angel Genao, Nick Yorke
(Joe Juliette)