Every year, we at the TDG office identify Risers and Fallers from our consensus rankings. But how did we get here!? And what’s real and what’s noise? Well, the Gurus are here to help. In each “Risers and Fallers” article, the Gurus will take you on an explanatory journey as to why these players have seen a fortunate rise, or an unfortunate turn toward their demise. Thanks for reading!

RISING: LUIS GARCÍA JR., WASHINGTON NATIONALS (AGE: 25, CURRENT RANK: 10, PREVIOUS RANK: 38)

The Nationals rushed Luis García Jr. through the minors, and he left a trail of mostly mediocre stats along the way. His age relative to the levels he was at gave reason for hope, but after a .689 OPS in his age-23 season in 2023, the bandwagon was pretty much empty. Last year it finally clicked as García slashed .282/.318/.444 with 18 home runs and 22 stolen bases. And though it seems like he’s been around forever, he’s still relatively young.

García’s home run breakthrough was not a surprise. He has always had raw power, but his swing-at-everything approach led to a lot of groundballs. He’s slowly made progress in that area, with his flyball rate steadily rising from 16.3% in 2020 to 32.5% last season. There’s room for more growth if he can cut down the 36% chase rate and stick to pitches he can drive.

The stolen bases were a bit more unexpected, considering his mediocre sprint speed and 13-for-24 success rate his first four years. However, on the Nationals, everyone gets the green light. They led the league with 223 steals. Even Jesse Winker swiped 14 bags before being dealt to the Mets at the deadline, beating his previous career high of… one. If Winker can do that, García shouldn’t have a problem staying around 20. Just be aware this might not last if García changes teams or Washington changes managers.

García still has his flaws, but they’re tolerable at a weak position like second base. He’s hopefully established a solid floor, and has a chance to keep rising if he continues to refine his game.

(Ben Sanders)

FALLING: GLEYBER TORRES, DETROIT TIGERS (AGE: 28, CURRENT RANK: 21, PREVIOUS RANK: 4)

Falling: Gleyber Torres, Detroit Tigers (Age: 28, Current Rank: 21, Previous Rank: 4)

There were a lot of reasons for optimism with Gleyber Torres last season, and many of them are gone now. He had a very good year in 2023, hitting 25 home runs, stealing double-digit bases for a third straight campaign, and posting a career-best 14.6% K-rate. He entered 2024 as the Yankees’ leadoff hitter in front of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, a wonderful spot for anyone. At age 27, he seemed poised for big things.

Instead, he regressed in almost every category. His home runs fell to 15, he stole just four bases, and his K-rate rose to 20.5%, right around his career average. The Yankees didn’t bother with a qualifying offer, and Torres moved on to Detroit on a one-year contract. The Tigers have made strides the last couple years, but they call pitcher-friendly Comerica Park home. Statcast gives Torres just nine xHR last season had he played all his games there, compared to 17 xHR at Yankee Stadium. The Tigers also do not have a Soto or Judge to drive in their new second baseman, and it’s easy to see how valuable that is. Torres scored 38 runs in 56 games while leading off last season, and 42 in the other 98 when he hit somewhere else in the lineup.

Torres has been durable the last few years, and you can probably trust him to be a boring stat compiler for your MI spot. It’s just hard to see a lot of upside in his new environment with his power and speed trending the wrong way. The lack of a long-term contract also leaves his future a bit murky, and while I expect he still has at least a few more years as an everyday player, that’s not the lock it used to be. He now looks more like a useful role player than a core piece of a winning dynasty team.

(Ben Sanders)