Here at the TDG Headquarters, we’ve been busy looking for “The Next Big Thing.”  Just like you, we want to know who’s going to be the prospect that will become the core of our fantasy team, or be the trade piece that lands us the players who put us over the top. With that in mind, we’ve put together a team of prospect prognosticators and developed a set of tiered rankings for each position. And once they’re all posted, we’ll wrap up with our Top 200 Overall Prospects, putting it all together.

Be sure to listen to the Join the Ranks podcast for more discussion about these prospects.

Today, we bring you the third base prospect tiers 1 and 2, which include prospects #1-14.

Tier 1

If you want to be the trendsetter in your leagues, or be the one that all other managers envy, then you have to roster Ronny Mauricio. There will be a prospect spotlight dropping soon about him, but to quench your hunger now, he’s a 25 home run, 25 stolen base monster! You aren’t going to find that anywhere in the top tiers of third base ranks. Matt Shaw is really the only other option which could come close. Between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit 21 home runs and stole 31 bases. I’m a little hesitant to say he can maintain the power in the major leagues, but he did have good numbers at Triple-A with an average EV of 89.3 mph and an average launch angle of 14.6 degrees. Sebastian Walcott is further away from the big leagues and still needs to develop his power; he only hit 10 home runs in 116 games at High-A last season. In his brief cup of coffee in the major leagues, Coby Mayo fell flat on his face, much in the same way Jackson Holliday did. He hit .098/.196/.098 in 17 games. It was in stark contrast to his Triple-A numbers of .287/.364/.562. He even added 22 home runs and 23 doubles in 89 games there. Now he just needs an opening at the major league level to give him a second chance to show what he can do in Baltimore. (Brian Labude)

Third base might be one of the more exciting prospect positions out there at the moment. In this tier, I am avoiding Matt Shaw. Yeah, he comes in at the top, but I see some bumps in the road, and at this value it might be just too much to acquire in my opinion. He should be a solid major leaguer and contribute this season, but I am worried about how his power translates to the majors. Over 35 Triple-A games, he was amongst the lowest percentile in pulled fly ball rate, pulled rate in general, and even chase rate. Again solid hitter, but maybe not a top-tier one out the gate in the major leagues. 

Coby Mayo and Sebastian Walcott offer similar profiles, albeit at different levels. Mayo should carve out consistent major league at-bats this season, while Walcott will be in Double-A putting up big power and speed numbers. Both can have high strikeout rates at times, but the power is the real deal. Another successful season for Walcott could see him jockeying for the number 1 overall prospect status. (Daniel Labude)

Tier 2

I’ve talked about Brandon Winokur a bunch this offseason, so I won’t keep browbeating you about him, other than to say he’s a massive breakout candidate in my opinion. If you are looking for another buy low candidate in this tier, it has to be Cam Collier. After hitting only six home runs and slashing .246/.349/.356 in 2023, he broke out in the power department last season hitting 20 home runs. His value is all over the place, but if he improves on his contact and strikeout rates, he will regain the shine he has lost and then some. Eric Bitonti is another player that could rise up a lot throughout 2025. As an 18-year-old, he hit 16 home runs between the Complex League and Low-A last year. The power is real, but so are the strikeouts, he had a strikeout rate of 27.9% in 2024. He sure can do damage when he makes contact though. (Brian Labude)

The forgotten man in this tier is Orelvis Martinez. There are questions surrounding his suspension and position in the major leagues, but the product on the field keeps improving year after year, after year. In so many ways he is a mirror copy of Coby Mayo. In 2024 at Triple-A, Martinez had better numbers than Mayo in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, 90th percentile exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and even strikeout rate. Yes, Martinez struck out less than Mayo. The Blue Jays still have some spots in the lineup that could use added power and better offensive numbers. Depending on how the end of the offseason goes, Martinez could see regular playing time at DH or third base. A hot Spring Training and start of the season, could see him being one of the biggest sleepers of the season. Am I alone on this island, probably, but it is an island I am happy to live on. (Daniel Labude)