Every year, we at the TDG office identify Risers and Fallers from our consensus rankings. But how did we get here!? And what’s real and what’s noise? Well, the Gurus are here to help. In each “Risers and Fallers” article, the Gurus will take you on an explanatory journey as to why these players have seen a fortunate rise, or an unfortunate turn toward their demise. Thanks for reading!

RISING: MARK VIENTOS, NEW YORK METS (AGE: 25, CURRENT RANK: 8, PREVIOUS RANK: 36)

Talk about coming up. When a prospect actually does well, we should all buy in. Vientos showed major power (and strikeout issues) in the minors, and he carried that over into his first full big league season, hitting 27 homers with a respectable .266/.322/.516 slash line in only 454 Plate appearances. His K rate was way too high at 29.7%, and that was about where he was in his minor league career. Can he succeed long-term with that? Ehhhhhhh….that’s the million dollar question. It’s not too hard to see an improvement in his walk rate to his minor league levels, and if he can just get to a 27% K rate, everything will be alright in the Big Apple.

There is a caveat about his future third base eligibility (as of this writing); it is not looking like Pete Alonso will return to NY, so Vientos will shift there, and that may end his 3B eligibility after this season. For Dynasty roster building, take note.

RISING: JORDAN WESTBURG, TEAM (AGE: 25, CURRENT RANK: 10, PREVIOUS RANK: 41)

With an upcoming birthday (2/18), Westburg heads into 2025 as the starting third baseman for a very good Orioles team; even though he’s penciled in to the #8 hole on Rosterresource (as of this writing), the opportunity for Runs and RBI should be plentiful. Westburg hasn’t shown the 10%+ walk rate he sported in the minor leagues yet at the big league level, so there’s room for him to grow his OBP. He may settle in as a solid yet unspectacular 25/10 guy, with his Runs + RBI separating him from the rest of the 25/10 third basemen. He is much, much more intriguing if he can his that 30/15 plateau with all those counting stats. This ranking assumes he will get pretty close.

FALLING: NOLAN ARENADO, ST LOUIS CARDINALS (AGE: 34, CURRENT RANK: 26, PREVIOUS RANK: 11)

He would have ranked higher if he would have accepted the trade to Houston, everyone loves taking a shot on a former perennial first rounder in new surroundings. Unfortunately for us, he declined the deal, and Arenado returns to an underwhelming Cardinals team where Runs and RBI will be in short supply. He could hit 25 homers and should provide a playable slash line, but it’s just so boring. Take a chance on some upside.

FALLING: BRETT BATY, NEW YORK METS (AGE: 25, CURRENT RANK: 40, PREVIOUS RANK: 28)

One Met goes up, another has to come down, them’s the rules. Baty is the unlucky one. He really hasn’t done much in his big league career; he’s accumulated a season’s worth of plate appearances over the last three seasons (602), and has a really poor slash of .215/.282/.325 with only 15 homers. The Mets will have him compete with prospects Luisangel Acuña and Ronny Mauricio for the job in Spring Training, so he may get one more shot at being a big-league regular. Here’s hoping for him.