Every year, we at the TDG office identify Risers and Fallers from our consensus rankings. But how did we get here!? And what’s real and what’s noise? Well, the Gurus are here to help. In each “Risers and Fallers” article, the Gurus will take you on an explanatory journey as to why these players have seen a fortunate rise, or an unfortunate turn toward their demise. Thanks for reading!

Rising: Zach Neto, Anaheim Angels (Age: 24, Current Rank: 13, Previous Rank: 21)

OK, I admit it: Neto moving up 8 spots from TDG’s most recent shortstop ranking is not exactly a huge riser. Shortstop in 2025 is a very strong position and rising into the top ten of this list is a very tall task.

Neto was a first round pick in 2022 by the Angels. He played under 50 games in the minors before making one of the quickest debuts in recent memory in early 2023. After struggling in 2023, Neto took a big step forward in 2024 showing speed and power. He hit 23 home runs, stole 30 bases, and slashed .249/.318/.443. Neto scored 70 runs and knocked in 77 while hitting at the bottom of the order most games. His rise would indicate that The Dynasty Gurus are bullish on Neto maintaining those numbers and possibly improving upon them. Can he?

Neto’s MLB Statcast page has a wall of blue numbers and bars. If you’re not familiar with Statcast, that’s not great news. Those numbers and bars represent the underlying measures that give context to their actual production. Blue numbers mean he rates average or worse (red is above average) in many important metrics. I’m surprised at everything except his strikeout and walk-related numbers. Neto made slightly less contact than average on pitches in the strike zone and his exit velocities are just middling. He chases pitches out of the zone frequently.

The positive is that his fly balls turn into home runs surprisingly often given his contact quality. His tendency is to pull the ball rather than spray his hits all over the field is a good omen that his 15-20 home run power can stay consistent. Frankly, that’s easily the best thing I see on the page for fantasy. Neto’s top end speed is only 75th percentile. He is a volume base-stealer and he was caught one-third of the time.

All of this suggests a player who I might be writing about next year after a big drop in the 2026 shortstop rankings. Despite the underlying numbers, there is a small bright side to Neto’s profile. He is a good athlete and does not appear to have any competition for his job. If healthy, Neto will get a full slate of plate appearances. Neto was rushed to the majors and has been learning how to play professional baseball on the biggest stage. He’s just about to start his age-24 season. On top of that, Fangraphs’ projections believe that his 2024 numbers are real, so they might be seeing something that I am not.

There are some very tangible negatives to Neto’s profile, paired with some less tangible positives. He’s a mystery to me, and I have a difficult time reconciling Neto’s metrics with his excellent production. I find myself very cautiously optimistic. Due to the unique way the Angels have handled his career so far, he should be expected to experience some struggles. It is possible that he can continue progressing while playing at the highest level.

Falling: Ha-Seong Kim, Free Agent (Age: 29, Current Rank: 26, Previous Rank: 12)

This one is much less of a mystery. As I write, Kim is currently a free agent. He also tore the labrum in his throwing shoulder last August, which is a problem for a player who is a valuable defensive player. Kim’s days at shortstop could be numbered if his throwing arm doesn’t bounce back.

Kim had settled into a role as a top-of-the-order batter who gets on base and steals bases in front of the sluggers. He hit .260/.351/.398 with 17 home runs and 38 steals in 2023.  He was on pace to finish fairly close to those numbers in 2024 when his season ended in August.

Kim’s underlying metrics match a classic table-setter profile. He doesn’t chase pitches, he doesn’t miss the pitches he chooses to swing at, and he doesn’t hit them particularly hard. His exit velocities are very low. Fortunately, he is in the 75^th percentile in baseball in keeping his contact in the “sweet spot” (sweet spot explained) which keeps his batted balls airborne.

Why did he fall? Kim was probably over-ranked last year in hindsight. More players are stealing a high number of bases since the pickoff rule changes and that dilutes Kim’s biggest strength. 35 steals are still very solid, but they just aren’t what they used to be without contributions in other categories. His injury certainly played a part. I believe that for the next few years Kim will be a consistent performer, providing fantasy managers with ten or more home runs, 30 steals, and solid on-base numbers. If his shoulder is healed, he may even retain shortstop eligibility for those seasons. Ultimately the reason he fell is that those numbers do not equate to a top-15 shortstop in baseball anymore.