The deep freeze of winter has engulfed much of the country and I for one, am colder than a polar bear’s behind and I’m the Polar Bear. While we all try to cozy up by a fire and thaw out a little, I guess you need some reading material, or kindling depending on how this goes. I want to start our Prospect Spotlight series off with a home run, so maybe the fireworks produced by this player can bring us all a little heat on a cold January night. Now the top half of our outfield prospect rankings are loaded with potential studs, but where’s the fun in doing a spotlight on a guy everyone knows? Nah, we’re going bold here out of the gate, so grab a cup of hot chocolate and throw another log on the fire, because Brandon Winokur is going to be the warmth you need to make it to the Spring thaw.

In 2023, Winokur was drafted in the third round by the Minnesota Twins out of Edison High School in Huntington Beach, California. The first thing which stands out about him on the baseball field is his size. He is 6’6” tall and weighs 210 pounds. The Twins did not waste any time, deciding to get him on the field quickly, sending him to the Florida Complex League. There, he would get into 17 games and have 71 plate appearances before the league ended its season. He made a big impression on fans in the short amount of time he had there. He launched four big home runs and added five doubles, while slashing .288/.338/.546. It was a true statement about the natural raw power he possessed and the skill level he was bringing with him into games. The only knock on him really was his plate discipline, he had a strikeout rate of 32.4% and a very low walk rate of 5.6%. This wasn’t too shocking, as taller/younger players tend to have more problems with the swing-and-miss aspect of their skillset and the adjustment process to playing in professional baseball.

To start the 2024 season, the Twins seemed to agree about Winokur, because they sent him to Low-A Fort Myers in the Florida State League (FSL). The Fort Myers team was definitely one to watch last season. Other than Winokur, the roster included some names like Walker Jenkins, Jose Rodriguez, Payton Eeles, Byron Chourio, Kaelen Culpepper, and Yasser Mercedes. Winokur would play in 94 games and be a more complete player than anyone went into the season believing he could be. He hit .249/.327/.434, with 14 home runs, 19 doubles, 23 stolen bases and a wRC+ of 116. He did have at least one trip to the injured list, but otherwise had a terrific first full season in pro ball. He even improved on his plate discipline from the prior season, decreasing his strikeout rate and increasing his walk rate, to 28% and 8.3% respectively.

Taking a closer look at Winokur’s performance from Low-A in 2024, he really took off at the beginning of August and did not let up until the end of the season. During that span, he played in 29 games, slashed .264/.319/.527, while adding seven home runs, six doubles, nine stolen bases, and a wRC+ of 136. His strikeout and walk rates were also pretty good at 26.9% and 7.6%. He was having a great stretch to end the year and allow himself to build on it and improve in the offseason.

What makes me optimistic that Winokur is poised to have a big breakout season in 2025 are the underlying metrics from the statcast data collected from games in the FSL. He finished the season with an average exit velocity of 89.6 mph, an average launch angle of 14 degrees, and a hard hit rate of 36.8%. Out of hitters with 200 plate appearances or more in the FSL, he ranked 11th, 20th, and 28th in those categories. Surprisingly, Walker Jenkins, a consensus Top-30 prospect, trailed Winokur in all three of those metrics. It shows there is some serious potential when it comes to the upside value of Winokur.

Now for the anchors holding Winokur down for the time being, his contact and chase rates are very bad. In 2024, his contact rate was 63.4% and his chase rate was 35.3%. Even his in-zone contact was a little low at 72%. Each of these anchors he currently has are ones that he can improve upon in the offseason and throughout the 2025 season. Building on his current approach at the plate will continue to help him stay quick to the ball and avoid longer swings. In 2024, his batted ball directional breakdown was 46.8% to the pull side, 23.2% to center, and 30% to the opposite field. If he can continue that approach and improve his contact and chase rates, his power and speed numbers will only grow in 2025. A 20 home run, 30 stolen base season is not out of the realm of possibilities for him in the next couple of years. That is, if he can improve enough to cut loose from some of his anchors. He could be rising significantly and could even become a Top-50 prospect.

(Brian Labude)