Tyler Nevin

Scouting the Stat Line: Top 1000+ Hitters Under 30 by Peak Projected Dynasty Performance
Note: data update 3/8/2021. Peak wRC+ and dynasty z-score are unchanged. Other metrics updated, but they remain consistent with peak wRC+ and dynasty z-score. See ‘Table note’ for more detail.

The Bastard Son of xwOBA: xwOBA-lite for Minor Leaguers
How to best make sense of the recent proliferation of information on minor league hitters, specifically power metrics? This is a question I’ve been struggling with in the last few weeks/months (does anyone keep track of time anymore?) regarding minor league fly ball distance, exit velocity, and exit velocity on

Jordan’s Research Ramblings: Expected Power Leaderboards for Minor Leaguers
Last week, I generated an expected home runs per fly ball measure (xHR/FB) for minor leaguers based on their average fly ball distance and average exit velocity. The logic is this: a minor leaguer can be expected to hit a certain number of home runs per fly ball given their

Scouting the Stat Line: Top 3030 Hitting Prospects by Peak MLB wOBA Projection
Wander Franco (Left photograph: Rob Tringali / MLB Photos via Getty Images); Julio Rodriguez (Right photograph: wv_power, The Official Instagram for the West Virginia Power) Over the past year, I’ve developed translations that convert minor league statistics to their equivalent MLB statistics. I’ve also built aging curves to project when

Monthly Prospect Update: Infielders, August 2019
Each month, The Dynasty Guru will provide a prospect update, including notable performances (good and bad), assignments, promotions, trades, injuries, and suspensions. Most importantly, the monthly update will examine prospects with increasing and decreasing fantasy value, from the elite to the obscure.

Monthly Prospect Update: Infielders, May 2019
Each month, The Dynasty Guru will provide a prospect update, including notable performances (good and bad), assignments, promotions, trades, injuries, and suspensions. Most importantly, the monthly update will examine prospects with increasing and decreasing fantasy value, from the elite to the obscure. At the beginning of May, TDG reviewed April performances for infielders,

Top 200 Fantasy Prospects, May 2019
This past week at The Dynasty Guru, we examined infield, outfield, and pitching prospects with increasing and decreasing fantasy value. As the culmination of the monthly review and update, we shall revisit the 2019 Top 500 Fantasy Prospects, published in January. Fantasy value is ever-changing. Like the stock market, there are stable

Top 50 Stats-Only Offensive Prospects using The Dynasty Guru’s New Sortable MLB Equivalency Leaderboards
In early April, The Dynasty Guru released a tool for translating minor league statistics to MLB equivalent statistics, also demonstrating their predictive validity for projecting 2019 performance. In March, we released a four–part aging curves series leveraging a new twist on the delta method. Now, we’ve combined those two projects to

2019 Top 500 Fantasy Prospects
‘Tis the season of prospect rankings! With many sites publishing real-life top 100 prospects lists, it is about time for a fantasy top . . . 500 prospects list! The 2019 Top 500 Fantasy Prospects represents the culmination of nearly three months of positional prospect rankings (links below). To see

The Dynasty Guru’s Top 50 Third Basemen, #21-50
WELCOME BACK!!! Despite a scorching hot stove (I can’t believe the player you’re thinking of did or did not sign with the team you thought they would!), January and February can be some of the darkest months of the year (figuratively and literally). But fear not, restless readers. The Dynasty