CJ Alexander

The Bastard Son of xwOBA: xwOBA-lite for Minor Leaguers
How to best make sense of the recent proliferation of information on minor league hitters, specifically power metrics? This is a question I’ve been struggling with in the last few weeks/months (does anyone keep track of time anymore?) regarding minor league fly ball distance, exit velocity, and exit velocity on

Jordan’s Research Ramblings: Expected Power Leaderboards for Minor Leaguers
Last week, I generated an expected home runs per fly ball measure (xHR/FB) for minor leaguers based on their average fly ball distance and average exit velocity. The logic is this: a minor leaguer can be expected to hit a certain number of home runs per fly ball given their

Scouting the Stat Line: Top 3030 Hitting Prospects by Peak MLB wOBA Projection
Wander Franco (Left photograph: Rob Tringali / MLB Photos via Getty Images); Julio Rodriguez (Right photograph: wv_power, The Official Instagram for the West Virginia Power) Over the past year, I’ve developed translations that convert minor league statistics to their equivalent MLB statistics. I’ve also built aging curves to project when

2019 Breakout Prospects
Last week, the 2019 Impact Prospects detailed lesser-known potential impact prospects. This week, I will explore lesser-known potential breakout prospects outside the top 200 in the 2019 Top 500 Fantasy Prospects. In this context, a “breakout” simply means these prospects will greatly improve their fantasy stock over the next year. Some may

2019 First Year Player Draft Rankings
As the calendar approaches March, many dynasty leagues are preparing for first year player drafts. While the recently released 2019 Top 500 Fantasy Prospects includes the vast majority of first year player draft prospects, it may be difficult to separate such players from the pack. As such, these rankings specifically focus on