Gage Stanifer, Toronto Blue Jays, Double-A New Hampshire, Pitching Prospect Rank #46

If you go outside on a clear evening and toss a baseball high up in the air, look up at the night sky while you are waiting for the ball to come back down. You may get the chance to see hundreds of stars filling up the vastness of the universe above. They are illuminating the dark void of space in which you are gazing at. Among these stars there are only a select few that will have the honor of going supernova and participating in the final evolution of a high-mass star. The enormous explosion results either in a perfectly compacted neutron star or a black hole. You might be thinking at this point, why am I talking about astronomy and supernovae? Well, it is an apt comparison to a starting pitching prospect on the Toronto Blue Jays. A very rare star that has gone supernova and is looking to settle back into either a neutron star or be swallowed up by a black hole. I am, of course, referencing one of my favorite pitching prospects in baseball, Gage Stanifer and his meteoric rise in 2025 that has supplanted himself as one of those rare stars who has exploded, going supernova. His rise from a 19th round major league pick, to being on the cusp of breaking into the top 100 prospects in baseball and just a couple of minor league levels away from the big leagues in just one season has been truly special to follow.

Stanifer was drafted in 2022 by the Toronto Blue Jays out of Westfield High School. He went 22nd in the 19th round, 578th overall. He wouldn’t see games that year, as he made his professional debut in 2023 in the Florida Complex League as a 19-year-old. He would pitch in 11 games and throw 42.2 innings on the season. The results weren’t great, but showed a lot of promise for someone drafted as late as he was. He struggled to the tune of a 6.33 ERA, a 24.4% strikeout rate, but an 11.9% walk rate. His FIP came in at 4.42, showing he was actually pitching better than his ERA would suggest, by almost two full runs. His 31.4% groundball rate was a likely issue in the rough ERA, too many balls were hit in the air.

2024 came and Stanifer would see a bump up to Single-A Dunedin for his second minor league season. This time, over 19 games and 59.2 innings on the mound, he would virtually repeat his Rookie-ball statline. Hitters scored often on him, as his ERA was almost an identical 6.34 and his FIP took a bit of a tumble at 5.27. Again, a sign that he was pitching somewhat better than his ERA was portraying. His strikeout rate was still in line at 23.4% and his groundball rate improved, increasing to 38.5%. The higher groundball rate should have resulted in a better ERA theoretically, but his walk rate ballooned versus the more advanced Single-A hitters, rising to a worrisome 18.1%. His batting average against actually dropped from Rookie-ball to Single-A, seeing a decrease going from .262 the year before to .249 in 2024. There was noticeable improvement, but the walk rate and bevy of runners on the bases resulted in a lot of runs given up. Changes needed to be made and what resulted was a bona-fide supernova in the prospect world.

2025 came and Stanifer would be repeating the Single-A level, but this time things had changed. He improved his vision, increased his strength, and his pitch quality took a significant jump up. He went from a four-seam fastball (was a sinker according to Baseball Savant) with an average velocity of 92.2 MPH and transformed it into a 95.4 MPH pitch with almost 18 inches of induced vertical break. It was a truly elite pitch now and the increased velocity on his slider and changeup/splitter boosted those pitch metrics as well. He came into last year with the same repertoire, but somehow completely different. He had two elite pitches in the four-seam fastball and slider. The changeup/splitter wasn’t a great results pitch, but had the makings of becoming plus at a minimum. He began the season as the piggyback starter, pitching second after Trey Yesavage. Stanifer exploded from the first start of the year and annihilated Single-A hitters over seven games and 29 innings. He only gave up two earned runs on his way to a 0.69 ERA and a 2.24 FIP. His groundball rate skyrocketed to 56.3% and maybe more importantly, he struck out 36.9% of the hitters he faced. His command even took a gigantic leap, as he only walked batters at a 11.7% rate. His batting average against was an almost unheard of .112. Hitters didn’t collect a single hit against his slider, hit only .196 against his fastball, and hit .083 versus the changeup/splitter. He pushed his way up to High-A Vancouver in emphatic fashion. There, he would pitch in 18 games, move to being a starter again, and throw 76 innings. He pitched to a 3.20 ERA, but his FIP was a still sparkling 2.30. This time showing he was even better than his ERA. He continued mowing down hitters with a 36.5% strikeout rate and maintaining his lower walk rate at 11.7%. The groundball rate decreased to 40.3%, but with a batting average against of .203, it wasn’t much to worry about. At the end of the season, he would be bumped up to Double-A New Hampshire for a short two game stint. Things unraveled slightly in his eight innings there. He walked nine batters, gave up six runs, but still struck out eight. Over the three levels on the season, he pitched 110 innings and struck out 161. It was good for a 35.5% strikeout rate and just like that, Stanifer had exploded onto the baseball scene going from relatively unknown to the best qualified strikeout pitcher in the minor leagues. He was almost 2% better than the next closest qualified pitcher. It was a beautiful evolution from the season before.

Stanifer throws from a Dylan Cease like motion, one with a short arm action. This can lead to some of the wildness he has shown in the past and at times in 2025. Repetitions and more experience will help hone in his command and improving his changeup/splitter will elevate his game to the next level. He already can get hitters to whiff a lot on his fastball up in the zone or with his deathball slider down and sometimes even over the plate. He is very good at moving levels and pairing his pitches together, but a third pitch to help against lefties and possibly a more horizontal pitch to go with his vertical plate control are possibilities to get him to his next stage of development in 2026. He should begin the year back at Double-A and an end-of-the-year call up to the major leagues is possible, if he continues to dominate minor league hitters. His walk rates and that third or fourth pitch may be what holds him back some as he continues to develop though. His 62% strike rate was only good for the 48th percentile of minor league pitchers. He must find a way to be in the strike zone more, as he continues to move up levels. His FIP, xFIP, SwStr%, BAA, K-BB%, and K% all being in the 92nd percentile or better shows a pitcher with a solid base that will continue to keep improving. For fantasy baseball, he now has a very good floor and the ceiling is limitless. Just like those few stars who have gone supernova, Stanifer has a diverging path ahead. He can become a bona-fide unanimous top 100 prospect, or battle some control issues and be swallowed up by a black hole. From what I have seen and the work he has put into transforming and evolving into the pitcher we see in the night sky today, I am all in on him taking that next step. You should add him on your fantasy teams if you can, before time passes by and the ball falls into the glove.