Which players are we avoiding this year, and why?  Are they over-valued, playing in a difficult environment, or on the precipice of a steep decline?  Whatever the reason, the Dynasty Guru writers have identified a few players whom we are avoiding.

Pitching at the major league level and even in the minor leagues has never been better. The depth across the sport makes it difficult to spot some clear-cut avoids at the position. However, there are a few that do come to the forefront of the mind as spring training gets into the full swing before the World Baseball Classic.

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners, Age 28, Rank 21

My first pitcher to avoid is George Kirby, who is ranked 21st in our consensus rankings. Last year was a rough season for him, one which saw his ERA balloon to 4.21 and his FIP come in at 3.37. He started the season late due to injury and was never able to get into a nice groove or even look remotely like he did the year prior when he had a 3.53 ERA and a 3.40 FIP. He started to turn things around in the postseason, but then the Toronto Blue Jays sized buzz saw cut the hopes he had turned a corner in half and killed it right then and there. On October 15th, the Blue Jays opened up the floodgates on their way to scoring eight runs off of him in just four innings. For the season he was hit hard and too often. Batters had an average exit velocity of 90.6 mph (14th percentile), an 8.5% barrel rate (47th percentile), and a 43.9% hard hit rate (21st percentile) against him. The big reason that makes him an avoid for me was how much his fastball dropped in value from 2024 to 2025. In both seasons, the velocity was almost identical at 96.0 mph and 96.1 mph, but his induced vertical break (iVB) went from 15.8 inches to 13.4 inches last year. Ultimately, this led to the pitch having a -2.1 run value versus -0.2 in 2024. Unless his fastball regains the iVB he lost, his value being ranked 21st is too risky, especially with pitchers like Jacob Misiorowski, Trey Yesavage, Jacob deGrom, Kyle Bradish, and Spencer Strider all below him. For mid-sized dynasty leagues, he just doesn’t have the look of a SP2 anymore and for the deep 30-team leagues, I would not want him as my SP1.

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies, Age 22, Rank 58

Andrew Painter as an avoid, a little shocked aren’t you? He was generally regarded as the number one pitching prospect and next potential superstar from the position, but then he had Tommy John surgery and everything came off the rails for him. He missed the 2023 and 2024 seasons, only pitching during the Arizona Fall League in 2024. He was ready to go for 2025, but struggled to the tune of a 5.65 ERA at Triple-A, with a 1.547 WHIP that was beyond worrisome. He got hit hard throughout the season, coughing up 20 home runs (2nd percentile), batters had a BABIP of .330 (25th percentile), and a line drive rate of 25.5% (21st percentile). The skills that had separated him from his peers were gone and he ended the year with an average strikeout rate of 23.7% and a just above average walk rate of 9.0%. It appears his struggles might have been due to his arm slot lowering, though he might have been able to correct that during the off-season. Regardless, until he regains his form from prior to the surgery, or shows drastic improvement on last season’s woeful performance, he is someone I will be avoiding unless it is a buy-low opportunity.

(Brian Labude)