The Dynasty Guru Annual Ranking Season is upon us!  Up next, the starting pitchers!  The rankings presented here are the composite rankings of all the writers at The Dynasty Guru, and after healthy debate and only a little name-calling, we are ready to share them with you. The comments below each tier are the work of the writer cited at the end of the section.  Don’t forget to check out Chris and Drew’s analysis of each position on the Join the Ranks podcast.

51 – 60

Rank	Player	Avg	Min	Max
51	Roki Sasaki	50.4	31	86
52	Grayson Rodriguez	64	27	113
53	Tatsuya Imai	60.9	38	97
54	Jonah Tong	61.7	31	110
55	Kris Bubic	62.3	35	92
56	Robbie Ray	62.5	30	99
57	Edward Cabrera	63	20	102
58	Andrew Painter	63.7	27	129
59	Sandy Alcantara	64.4	30	117
60	Brandon Woodruff	65	37	125

The 51-60 range of our starting pitcher rankings offers a 10-pack of players who offer both promise and peril. Tatsuya Imai is the purest unknown in this group, with a sparkling NPB career under his belt but without yet throwing a professional inning state-side. If everything clicks for the 27-year-old, he profiles as a 2/3 starter for the Houston Astros, and an excellent value at his 3 year, $54 million contract.

Roki Sasaki’s entry into the MLB did not quite go as planned, as a shoulder impingement cost him most of the 2025 season before returning to star as a high leverage reliever for the Dodgers on their run to a second consecutive World Series title. Will he be a starter or a reliever long-term? That is the big question with the 24-year-old.

Sasaki is far from the only pitcher in this group who has struggled with injuries, as Grayson Rodriguez, Kris Bubic, and Brandon Woodruff all missed time in 2025 with injuries, and Edward Cabrera, Andrew Painter, and Sandy Alcantara put together healthy 2025 seasons following significant injuries of their own.

If there’s one player in this group who could shoot up the rankings in 2026 it’ll be Andrew Painter. Painter was an elite pitching prospect as a teenager, pitching to a 2.54 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP with a 33.9% strikeout rate as just a 19 year old at Double-A Reading back in 2022. Those innings would be the last Painter pitched until the 2025 season, missing all of 2023 and 2024 with an injury that ended up requiring Tommy John surgery. Painter’s 2025 campaign was somewhat uneven. Still just 22 years old, Painter spent all but 11 innings at Triple-A Lehigh, putting up at 5.26 ERA. But the silver lining is that Painter worked up to 118 innings and finished the year healthy. Painter is considered the favorite to claim the final spot in the Phillies rotation to begin 2026, and could be a top 20 starting pitcher if he can reclaim his earlier form.

I’d be remiss to not include some words here about Jonah Tong, the 2025 minor league pitcher of the year who joined Nolan McLean as a late season call-up for a Mets team trying desperately to hang on to a playoff spot. Tong struggled in his 18.1 big league innings, with a 7.71 ERA that was largely impacted by several starts where he got batted around. It’s dimmed Tong’s star some, but to be fair he probably should have been allowed to finish out what was by all accounts a stellar season in the minors to round out 2025. Tong relies on two pitches, his fastball and his changeup, more than I’d prefer in a starter, but if he can improve his curveball and maybe add another offering, Tong has a chance to anchor the Mets rotation alongside McLean for years to come.

(David Gofman)

61 – 70

Rank	Player	Avg	Min	Max
61	Kade Anderson	65.1	45	102
62	Tanner Bibee	65.6	40	161
63	Shane Baz	65.7	33	122
64	Trevor Rogers	66	36	87
65	Sonny Gray	68.3	36	121
66	Nathan Eovaldi	68.7	34	125
67	Luis Castillo	68.8	31	102
68	Jack Flaherty	71.9	51	92
69	Bryce Miller	73.1	44	124
70	Cade Horton	73.2	38	93

This tier of starting pitchers is definitely a fun one, well, maybe it could give you some heartburn also. It seems the pitchers fit pretty squarely into three categories here, the wild cards with potential, the stable crew with some issues, and the young guns.

Let’s first start with the wild cards full of potential. I would group Tanner Bibee, Shane Baz, and Bryce Miller into this section. Bibee is my favorite of the trio. In his three major league seasons, he has seen his innings increased from 142, to 173.2, and then finally to 182.1 last year. His ERA has increased as well, going from 2.98, to 3.47, and then to 4.24. He struggled at times last season after losing the touch on his four-seam fastball. This also led to a downshift in his stuff overall and his strikeout rate took a hit as a result, dropping from 26.3% in 2024, down to 21.3% last season. What really stands out though, is how he rebounded at the end of the 2025 season. In the final month of the year, he pitched in four games, 27.2 innings, gave up just four runs, and struck out 26. The strikeout rate was back up to 25.5% and he only walked 4.9% of the batters he faced. If he can maintain those numbers and the stellar 2.38 FIP he had down the stretch, he could turn into a workhorse as the number one or two starter for the Cleveland Guardians. He might become one of the few 200 IP/200 K starting pitchers in baseball and that is with only a 10% increase in his innings and a return to his 26% strikeout rate. It is rare to possibly find that potential this far down the rankings and I think Bibee should be a definite target in deeper leagues as a result. Baz is in a similar boat to Bibee, but unlike him, his drop to this tier has been fueled by injuries. He has only thrown 286 major league innings over four seasons. Last year he made a big jump, going from 79.1 innings to 166.1. It was a huge increase, but it also came with 176 strikeouts. He hasn’t shown the big potential he once had back in 2021, but his strikeout rate increased from 21.6% in 2024, up to 24.8% last year. Another jump and we could possibly see Baz shoot for that 200 IP/200 K mark as well. His WHIP was a bit high and he is now with the Baltimore Orioles, so a change of scenery may do him some good. Miller is a wild card and it is because he burst onto the major league scene and broke out in 2024, with a 2.94 ERA and a 24.3% strikeout rate. Those numbers came over 180.1 innings pitched, but it was a giant step back in 2025. He only threw 90.1 innings, had a 5.68 ERA, and a 18.9% strikeout rate. It was a rough year, as his walk rate also doubled from his 2023 rookie season. His fastball velocity dropped from the 70th percentile two years ago, down to the 56th percentile last year, which likely fueled his ballooning numbers. His fastball run value completely tanked, going from the 77th percentile all the way down to the 8th in 2025. If he can regain his fastball, he has the potential to move up a number of tiers.

The stable crew of pitchers in this tier are Sonny Gray, Trevor Rogers, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Castillo, and Jack Flaherty. Probably the most interesting name of the group would have to be Rogers. He went from a 4.3 WAR, 2.64 ERA pitcher over 133 innings in 2021, to barely hanging on for three seasons. He popped back up last year with a 1.81 ERA and 3.3 WAR in only 109.2 innings. His strikeout rate was 24.3% and his walk rate 6.9%. He was an ace again over the shorter sample, but can he sustain it this year or will regression take hold? His fastball velocity has been up and down over the years and his hard hit rate in 2025 was in the third percentile, so I am expecting some regression. He could still be a good pitcher if the rest of his profile holds though. Castillo is a rollercoaster of a starting pitcher. His fastball has dropped in velocity for five straight seasons and his statcast is pretty much all blue now, but he keeps getting the job done. He has three straight seasons of 30 plus starts, an ERA of 3.34 to 3.64, and 162 strikeouts to 219 strikeouts. In-season there can be many different extremes. His home ERA was 2.60, but on the road it was 4.71. He was definitely doing better at the pitchers park in Seattle. Even month to month it was a bit shaky, going from a 6.70 ERA in August, down to a 2.50 ERA in September. So if you want good numbers, but with some in-season heartburn, Castillo is your man. Gray’s ERA jumped up to 4.28 last year, however, he is still pretty much a lock for 180 innings and close to 200 strikeouts. His age may be catching up to him, now at 36-years-old, but he is about as consistent as it comes on most stats. Eovaldi can be that consistent starter as well. From 2020 to 2024 his ERA only varied between 3.63 and 3.87. That is over roughly 655 innings, definitely someone you can count on for innings and counting stats. Last year, he even made the leap up, going 130 innings and having a 1.73 ERA. He is definitely a candidate to regress from there, but still should be a good pitcher. Flaherty is the guy that despite putting up similar numbers on repeat, I would avoid in this tier. He will give you 145 to 165 innings, but his ERA isn’t as good as the others in this group. He seems to go up and down more frequently from year to year and his pitch quality has been on a steady decline as well. He could have one of his rebound years, but it is not worth the risk in this tier given the upside floating around.

The last two starting pitchers are the young guns. Cade Horton and Kade Anderson. Anderson is just getting things going after being drafted in 2025, but he is a top pitching talent in a great pitching development organization. He could move fast and has multiple plus pitches to carry his profile. Horton was basically where Anderson was a few years ago. He finally broke out in his rookie season in 2025. Throwing 118 innings, striking out 97, had a 2.67 ERA, and a 1.08 WHIP. His stuff isn’t as exciting as some rookies, but he uses his pitch mix well and should be much higher than this tier in the rankings. There are some questions on whether he can sustain his success though. His sweeper and changeup carried his profile, as major league hitters couldn’t do much with them. If that continues, watch for him to jump up a tier or two by this time next season.

(Daniel Labude)

71 – 80

Rank	Player	Avg	Min	Max
71	Hurston Waldrep	76	38	112
72	Robby Snelling	76.7	36	122
73	Payton Tolle	78.7	33	112
74	Shane McClanahan	78.7	43	203
75	Jared Jones	80.2	36	170
76	Andrew Abbott	81.1	40	136
77	Zac Gallen	83	39	123
78	Logan Henderson	83.8	51	147
79	Seth Hernandez	84.2	25	132
80	Justin Steele	85.8	61	116

Had Sean Murphy not been hurt for most of 2025 and needed rehab time at Triple-A Gwinnett, I’m probably not writing about Hurston Waldrep right now. With Murphy’s help Waldrep started using a sinker more frequently and reduced his 4-seam fastball usage. This simple change instantly improved Waldrep’s results after he struggled to a 4.5 ERA/1.5 WHiP and a 12% walk rate in 2025 for Gwinnett. He was promoted shortly after this adjustment and in 56 innings he struck out 55 batters and registered a 2.88 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Waldrep works with a mid-90’s fastball that he can both cut and sink. Waldrep entered 2026 as a near lock in the Braves rotation. However, the Braves’ pitching elbow curse claimed another victim this spring. Waldrep will miss at least half the season to remove loose bodies from his elbow. He should recover and return to his new form, but Waldrep might not contribute heavily in 2026.

The Marlins acquired Robby Snelling at the 2024 trade deadline for Tanner Scott. He was considered a top 100 prospect entering that season but struggled enough to fall out of the top 100 in 2025. Under the Marlins’ guidance, Snelling has recovered his prospect status and then some. He is an athletic lefthander who works in the mid-90’s. Triple-A batters couldn’t do anything with him in 2025. Snelling had a 33% strikeout rate and a mere 7% walk rate. Not only is he working in the strike zone, but Snelling also allowed a lower contact rate on pitches in the strike zone than more heralded prospects like Jacob Misiorowski and Bubba Chandler. Snelling should make his Major League debut sometime in 2026 and should settle in to be at least a mid-rotation starter.

Payton Tolle is a large man on the mound, at a listed 6’6” and 250 pounds. He has a mid to upper-90’s fastball that he throws from a fairly low arm slot with elite extension. He leaned on this pitch heavily in his 2025 debut, throwing it 64% of the time. Tolle’s fastball-heavy approach doesn’t give hitters much opportunity to chase his offspeed pitches out of the zone, and Major League batters did not have many issues hitting Tolle hard in his 16-inning debut. In this small sample size Stuff+ rates all but Tolle’s slider as being well above average pitches, but his Location+ score was below average at 92. Tolle was fastball/cutter heavy in the minors as well, but that split was not as pronounced as he worked in his slider much more frequently in Triple-A Worcester. Tolle might profile better as a high-leverage reliever than a starter but finding a pitch he’s comfortable throwing to play off his strong fastball and slider will be key to his continuing to be a rotation candidate.

Shane McClanahan underwent Tommy John surgery in August of 2023 and has not pitched in a Major League game since. All reports say that he is having a normal spring training buildup and is expected to be set to go in the Opening Day rotation for the Rays this year. A fully recovered McClanahan is a monster on the mound, a true frontline starting pitcher. While he is not fighting for a rotation spot this spring, I will be watching his appearances to see if his velocity has returned. I would expect some rust on McClanahan’s command and the sharpness of his offspeed pitches. He likely won’t begin the season as dominant as he used to be, though if he can stay healthy, I think both will improve as the season goes on. The gauge for success for McClanahan in 2026 will be getting through the regular season with a full or nearly full complement of starts under his belt.

Jared Jones is another injured but promising young starter. He suffered an elbow injury at the end of Spring Training last season, and it cost him all of 2025 and at least half of 2026. Jones put together a good rookie campaign, striking out 132 batters in 121 innings. Jones isn’t tall, but he pairs a 97mph fastball with 6.8 feet of extension that overwhelms hitters. His favored secondary is a short-breaking slider. Despite being a two-pitch starter, Jones did not have notable split differences between batters on either side. Before he was hurt, Jones was implementing an improved changeup that he was using frequently. Per broadcast radar guns he had good speed differential, and the pitch had good arm side fade though it didn’t look like it was a sharp movement. Adding an effective third pitch could be the difference between Jones becoming a solid mid-rotation arm and something better. The first step for Jones this season will be to return fully healthy and resemble the pitcher he was in 2024.

OK, so I will have to admit that after digging a little deeper into Andrew Abbott I under-ranked him. My perception of him as a pretty standard mid-rotation weak contact lefty wasn’t far off. Where I was off was in how good Abbott was at it in 2025? Abbott only averages 93 mph with his fastball and Stuff+ does not love it (or any of his pitches). Abbott locates well and each pitch in his arsenal seems to complement the others. As a rule, I don’t trust pitchers who rely on weak contact to repeat great seasons, in particular flyball pitchers who play in small home parks like Abbott. His ERA (2.87) outperformed his FIP (3.66) by nearly a full run and the Reds do not have a good outfield defense. Abbott has improved his walk rates every year, going from 3.6 walks/9 innings to only 2.3 last season. I think Abbott will have trouble duplicating his 2025 season, but I do think he’ll remain a very solid pitching option who is easy on his owners’ ERA/WHIP.

Zac Gallen might have had one of the most disastrous seasons leading to his first free agent year that I can think of. He was great in 2022 and 2023, struggled to repeat that level of production in 2024, then was awful in 2025. Gallen is not an overpowering pitcher, as he relies on command and working the edges of the zone. According to Location+, he commands his total arsenal well but in 2025 his slider and changeup locations were worse than prior seasons. He throws those pitches a quarter of the time, but perhaps the slip in command is enough to put him into more hitter’s counts or he can’t put those pitches in a location that fools hitters. Projection systems are not optimistic about Gallen’s future either, as most see him closer to 2025 form than returning to 2023 going forward. After turning down a qualifying offer in November only to return to Arizona on a qualifying offer-sized deal in February, it seems the league agrees with the forecasting systems.

Logan Henderson is another product of the highly effective Brewers’ Pitching Development group. He’s currently a fastball/changeup starter, and they’re both very effective pitches that he commands well. Henderson sits in the low-mid 90’s with his rising fastball, and he pairs it with what is one of the best changeups in the minors. The downside for Henderson is his durability. He was drafted in the fourth round in 2021 but has cracked 100 innings only once. Henderson managed 103 innings, including 25 terrific innings in his Major League debut, but suffered a flexor strain that ended his season. He has been highly effective with two pitches, but a third pitch that’s usable (and improved durability) could make him more than just a decent mid to back end of the rotation guy.

Seth Hernandez was one of the most exciting arms in the 2025 Amateur Draft. He was selected by the Pirates at the sixth overall pick. Hernandez hasn’t thrown a professional pitch yet, but he was considered one of the best high school pitchers in the draft over the past decade or so. As an amateur he featured a 100mph fastball and a devastating changeup. His breaking balls could use some sharpening, and like any young pitcher his control and command can use some improvement. He’s a great athlete and has a delivery that looks like he’s making no effort at all. Hernandez has true frontline starter potential, though he is likely still several years away from pitching in the Major Leagues.

Justin Steele has been a very solid starting pitcher in three of the last four years, averaging 26 starts, a 3.14 ERA, 1.19 WHiP, a 25% strikeout rate, and a 7% walk rate. Last year Steele was injured after making four starts and sat out the remainder of the season after surgery. He will miss the first couple of months of the season in 2026, targeting a May or June return for the Cubs. Steele has never been a hard thrower, relying on his excellent slider to play off his 92mph average fastball velocity. In 2024 he was a true 2-pitch pitcher, throwing them 90% of the time and forcing hitters to guess which was coming. After missing nearly a season and a half, his command might lag behind his stuff as he comes back to the rotation. For a pitcher who relies on tunneling two good pitches he may struggle to return to form in 2025 as he shakes off the rust.

(Brandon Ring)

81 – 90

Rank	Player	Avg	Min	Max
81	Liam Doyle	86.5	65	165
82	Jackson Jobe	87	30	164
83	Luis Gil	87.5	46	159
84	Luis Morales	87.7	40	138
85	Reese Olson	88	62	169
86	Jack Leiter	89	49	130
87	Shota Imanaga	90.6	39	189
88	Travis Sykora	91.8	60	133
89	Noah Cameron	92.2	48	131
90	Shane Smith	92.4	53	127

Whoops!  I’m the wrong guy to ask about Liam Doyle.  I don’t trust amateur statistics to tell me anything but folks love him and his 100 mile per hour fastball from the left side.  The Cardinals haven’t successfully developed a high-end starting pitcher since . . . Adam Wainwright?  There were a few good seasons for Jack Flaherty and Carlos Martinez.  Anyway, Doyle’s fans say he doesn’t need that much development anyway.

Jackson Jobe felt like he was on his way to breaking out when he broke.  He was our number 3 pitching prospect entering 2025 (behind Andrew Painter and Roki Sasaki—truly a cursed list.)  He was still walking too many batters and not striking enough out and then he underwent Tommy John surgery.  He’s expected to be back in the second half of 2026, but is still ranked this highly because of stuff he showed in the minor leagues.

Luis Gil had a few months in 2024 where he kept his walk rate under control.  He averaged 2.79, 2.67, and 3.67 walks per nine innings in May, July, and September/October.  He averages 6.93, 5.64, and 9.75 walks per inning in March/April, June, and August.  Largely on the back of those good months and a high strikeout rate, he won Rookie of the Year.  He suffered a lat strain in spring training 2025 and pitched 57 innings where not only did his bad walk rate returned, but he didn’t strike many people out either.  If you think good Gil gleams in the gloaming, this is your golden opportunity.  I’ll wait and see.

Luis Morales was considered a pretty high-end pitching prospect some places.  He had a pretty good season, pitching 42.1 innings at Double-A Midland, 47.0 innings at Triple-A Las Vegas, and 48.2 innings at the major leagues as a 22-year-old.  Ignoring his age, his major league results were not that impressive, although he appeared to be hindered by his home park.  In 20.1 innings away, he pitched to a 2.21 ERA with 9.74 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.54 walks per  nine innings.  He’s someone you hope would develop more but he may already be streamable.

Reese Olson was pretty good in 2024 and about the same in 2025.  But he hurt his shoulder and was limited to just 68.2 innings.

I’m surprised there aren’t more people talking up the Jack Leiter breakout.  His strikeout rate went up.  In fact, he struck out more hitters than Hunter Greene, Spencer Strider, Justin Verlander, and Nate Eovaldi.  Of course, that’s because Leiter pitched 151.2 innings, a moderately heavy workload for a starter these days.  Here’s hoping he makes further improvements.

Shota Imanaga did not reward fantasy owners who bought into his 2024 performance.  Basically all the good numbers went down and the bad numbers went up.  He can still provide some value if he can pitch better than he did in 2025.

Travis Sykora put up some bonkers strikeout rates in the minor leagues and then his elbow popped.  He’s likely to miss 2026 but will still remain an exciting young prospect in 2027.

At some point, you just have to believe in Noah Cameron like you believe in Andrew Abbott.  That point may not be now.  It may make sense to give it another year.  But he pitched 138.1 innings at a 2.99 ERA despite all the other numbers saying that he did not actually do that.  Among pitchers who pitched 100 innings he has the third biggest gap between his ERA and fielding independent pitching (a formula of home runs, strikeouts, and walks scaled to ERA) behind only Mike Vasil (!) and Gavin Williams   Savant chalks it up to limiting hard contact, but we need more data to determine whether that was luck.

Someone in a Discord forum was on my case about Shane Smith.  In fairness, I think of all White Sox starters right now as the same.  When Shane Smith shaves in the morning, does he have to be sure he isn’t  Sean Burke or Davis Martin?  But Smith, a Rule 5 pick from the Brewers, was the best of them.  He pitched largely in relief in the minors where his strikeout rate was sky high.  It will be interesting to see how he matures.

(Bob Kelly)

91 – 100

Rank	Player	Avg	Min	Max
91	Ryan Sloan	93.8	44	150
92	Troy Melton	102	49	205
93	Zebby Matthews	95.5	65	167
94	AJ Smith-Shawver	99.8	43	171
95	Aaron Nola	99.8	67	155
96	Jarlin Susana	100	70	139
97	Ryan Weathers	100.8	70	140
98	Braxton Ashcraft	111	45	204
99	Casey Mize	111.5	57	197
100	Will Warren	116.1	69	164

We kick off the top 100 starting pitchers for dynasty leagues with the 91-100 group and I for one am a little worried with the quality of players you can find here. You’ve got your secured starters that have jobs locked up, but are they really worth rostering, some like Aaron Nola, Zebby Mathews, and Will Warren might not be. Then you’ve got an injured AJ Smith-Shawver working his way back from Tommy John surgery and some pitchers with a lot of talent, but questions causing concerns like Ryan Weathers and Braxton Ashcraft. Before we tackle the high variability pitchers, let’s check out the cream of the crop that made it just into the top 100. Ryan Sloan and Jarlin Susana are hands down the top two pitchers in this group and they haven’t even made it to the major leagues yet.

Let’s start with Sloan, he’s a bona-fide top 100 prospect and in my opinion a top 50 prospect. He wrapped up 2025 throwing 82 innings between Single-A and High-A, racking up a 27.0% strikeout rate, on the way to a 3.73 ERA, with a 1.16 WHIP. What truly places him into the elite tier of pitching prospects and into our top 100 dynasty pitchers is the command and control he has of his pitch arsenal. On the season he only walked 4.5% of the batters he faced (97th percentile) and had an astounding 67.8% strike rate (96th percentile). He’s got a monster fastball that is continuing to improve, to go along with a killer sweeper, which could become his best pitch, if it is not already. He is only going to soar up the rankings from here, you might want to enjoy the ride if you can.

Susana blasted onto the prospect scene a few years ago thanks in part to what could arguably be called the best fastball in the minor leagues. He routinely averages over 100 mph on the pitch and has touched 102 mph and 103 mph like it’s nothing. Why he’s not higher are injury concerns and control issues. In 2025, he only pitched 56.1 innings due to a sprained UCL and we all know throwing that hard can lead to even more of those problems, but he’s been unreal when healthy. Those 56.1 innings came at High-A and Double-A and saw him have a better than respectable 3.51 ERA, but he did struggle with a 1.31 WHIP. It’s the control that keeps nipping at his heels, his 63.3% strike rate (62nd percentile) wasn’t terrible, it was his 13.9% walk rate (22nd percentile) that continues to be his problem. In fact, if he could just reduce the walks some more, he could vault into stardom territory on the backs of his insane strikeout ability alone. In 2024, his strikeout rate was a robust 35.4% and last year it climbed to 38.9%. Both Susana and Sloan have true SP1 upside and can be good buys in this range.

The other good value buys here are Weathers and Ashcraft. The uncertainty regarding their health and youth in Ashcraft’s case are the main factors seeing them ranked this low. Since debuting in 2021 with the San Diego Padres, Weathers has not thrown more than 100 innings in any season at the major league level. His last two seasons for the Miami Marlins did see him put up some decent stats while he was on the mound. He had an ERA below four and a strikeout rate hovering around 22% during those years. He has a pretty big fastball, which has given him some lofty aspirations for his new team, the New York Yankees. He should have a lot better of an outlook now that he has been traded away from a bad team to a World Series hopeful one. His fastball saw an uptick of one mph in 2025, going from 95.9 mph in 2024 to 96.9 mph. The increase in velocity saw a decrease in opponents batting average versus it, dropping from .313 to .260. He is a strong breakout candidate heading into 2026 and could bring you a ton of value if he lives up to his hype.

Ashcraft pitched mostly out of the bullpen in 2025 for the Pittsburgh Pirates, starting 8 games out of his 26 appearances. He was pretty special in those games, he had a 2.71 ERA, a 2.78 FIP, a 24.3% strikeout rate, and a 8.2% walk rate. He attacked hitters with a healthy split between his slider, fastball, curveball, and sinker. Batters only had a barrel rate of 4.6% (94th percentile) and he induced a heavy amount of ground balls (50.8%, 85th percentile). It looks like he will earn a rotation spot this year during spring training and if he can keep his numbers up as a starter, he will be a big boom for the Pirates and dynasty owners.

Moving on to some of the downtrodden pitchers that you might want to avoid and there are actually a few of them in this grouping. The first is Nola and his 6.01 ERA from 2025. He only pitched 94.1 innings, but had a scary WHIP of 1.346 and his fastball velocity dropped from an average of 92.5 mph in 2024 to 91.9 mph last year. Some of his issues on the mound can be attributed to how his curveball performed. In 2024, it had a run value of 12, but last season it dropped to a -3. He should have some sort of bounce back in 2026, but it is not worth the risk, even ranked this far down among starting pitchers.

Mathews is another pitcher in this grouping I would steer clear of, if at all possible. He’s got a rotation spot secured, especially after the injury woes the Minnesota Twins have experienced in spring training. However, he sported an ERA north of 5.5 in each of his first two stints in the major leagues, while last year he also had a 1.487 WHIP. His FIP was only 3.79, suggesting he might have had bad luck force his ERA to the extraordinarily high levels. Either way, he’s not someone to bank on improving too much, as he had a 9th percentile 33.1% groundball rate, to go along with a 21st percentile 9.9% barrel rate.

Warren was not as bad as Nola and Mathews, but he doesn’t give off fuzzy vibes of improvement to me. He pitched 162.1 innings in his second year in the bigs and compiled some nice strikeout numbers, registering 172 punch outs (24.1%) on the season. He was in the 15th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, chase, barrel, and hard hit rates. Early on in the season you can expect him to be a mainstay in the New York Yankees rotation, but once their pitchers start to get healthy and return from the injured list, he might be the odd man out if he hasn’t corrected things in 2026. His fastball was pretty good last year, having a run value of 11, which was good enough to be in the 95th percentile for pitchers. A move to the bullpen could help him utilize that pitch more and keep him providing value to the team and fantasy GM’s.

The two Detroit Tigers pitchers, Casey Mize and Troy Melton, have a lot of talent, but are fighting each other for a rotation spot in spring training. Melton is already behind in the battle, as it looks like he might miss the start of the season with a trip to the injured list. Last year, he started four games and came out of the bullpen for 12 games, even getting four holds. He had a 2.76 ERA and a 4.60 FIP, meaning he was getting more luck than not while out on the mound. In Triple-A last year, he had an excellent 37.4% strikeout rate and could overtake Mize very quickly once he returns. The Tigers could also opt to send him back to Triple-A or move him to the bullpen again, where he does hold a considerable high upside ceiling as a high-leverage reliever with his big fastball. Last year, he averaged 96.8 mph on the pitch and also had an average extension of 6.9 feet (87th percentile). He’s a good arm to roll the dice with, as he has a floor of a top-end relief pitcher to cushion the fall for dynasty owners. This brings us back to Mize, where he is at a crossroads for fantasy GM’s. Last year was his best season, but he still didn’t provide a ton of value outside of a good ERA (3.66) and a good WHIP (1.27). He had a career high strikeout rate of 22.2%, but below average barrel and hard hit rates (9.1% and 42.5% respectively). At this point in his career you get a solid arm, not someone who has a lot of upside left though. He will also have Melton chasing him down, so he could be someone you might want to avoid as well.

Smith-Shawver rounds out this group and is coming back from Tommy John surgery. He may not pitch this season, after having the surgery mid-summer last year. He could be a potential buy-low arm right now though.

(Brian Labude)