Which players are we avoiding this year, and why?  Are they over-valued, playing in a difficult environment, or on the precipice of a steep decline?  Whatever the reason, the Dynasty Guru writers have identified a few players whom we are avoiding.

NICK KURTZ (AGE: 22 RANK: 2)

One player I am avoiding for first base will be a shocker, well, maybe not. Nick Kurtz has so much helium and deservedly so, but when you dig deeper into his stats there are some very real concerns for a player many in the industry are ranking number one. He comes in at number two for us in our TDG Consensus first baseman rankings and let’s look at what concerns me even with that ranking.

First, what made Kurtz so highly sought after in the dynasty world and especially now after the 2025 season? A special season from a rookie. Over 117 games, Kurtz smacked 36 long balls to go with a 170 wRC+ and a slash line of .290/.383/.619. He added eight home runs in the minor leagues as well, for a grand total of 44. The power is real and when he hits the ball he does damage and gets on base, all good things, but the negatives get pushed aside for the insanely good aspects. He had a 4th percentile strikeout rate (30.9%), a 5th percentile squared up rate (19.6%), an in-zone contact of 76.3%, and a 1st percentile whiff rate (35.5%). He was equal parts amazing and scary bad at the same time.

The underlying data for Kurtz shows a hit tool that was just bad, but at the same time was good enough to have one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory. To put it politely, he misses more pitches than every major league hitter. His numbers were fueled by the biggest cheat code home ballpark we have seen in a long time. The Athletics played in what I deem a combination of Coors Field and Great American Ballpark with a minor league configuration including no tall structures in the outfield. This led fly balls to travel consistently way further than they would normally. 61% of his home runs (22/36) came at home and only 43% of his strikeouts (66/151). As long as he remains playing in the Athletics minor league home stadium, the numbers should remain very good.

This brings us to maybe the next biggest concern, what happens when pitchers and teams figure him out or at least in some capacity versus what happened in 2025. The 30% strikeout rate may move closer to 40% and the splits may start showing a hitter more designed for platoon hitting. Kurtz hit .197/.261/.423 against left handed pitching, with a .685 OPS. Not good. The strikeout rate was also a more worrisome 35.3%.

Ultimately, Kurtz is a player I could see taking a step back in 2026 and beyond depending on his numbers in the minor league ballpark of a home stadium. He really needs to improve his contact ability and limit his strikeouts a good amount. We are looking at a player that has a wide range of probability for his true player outcome. He could certainly improve and be one of the best hitters in baseball for years to come, but to me, I see a player who is being valued there already with a good deal of his faults being ignored. I still had Kurtz number 2 in the Dynasty first baseman rankings, but the gap between him and say Rice, Soderstrom, and Busch may not be as big as some think. Ultimately, Kurtz has a big future ahead, but maybe not worthy of a top 20 dynasty player just yet. I would liken him more to Rafael Devers in terms of hitting profile, as they match up rather well. If that is his ultimate outcome, I would avoid him at the current price.

(Daniel Labude)

KYLE MANZARDO (AGE: 25 RANK: 19)

My second avoid at first base would be Kyle Manzardo who comes in at #19. The biggest reasons right off the bat would be the underlying statcast data, but we will get to that.

Manzardo had a resurgent year in 2025 after hitting just .234/.282/.421 over 145 at-bats the year before. Last year, that slashline jumped up to .234/.313/.455 and he added 27 home runs with 19 doubles. The issues come when looking deeper into the pull happy profile. He struggled with contact and strikeouts, piling up a 27.7% whiff rate (28th percentile) and a 25.4% strikeout rate (23rd percentile). Even his expected batting average was not good, coming in at .224, which was low enough for the 11th percentile in the major leagues. Most worrisome for me, was the 70.6 MPH bat speed (25th percentile). The bat speed already regressed from 2024 where it was 71.8 MPH.

To go a bit further into the profile, I think what screams to me as a reason to avoid as well, would be the extreme fly ball, low batting average, and high swing and miss approach that has seen a few players rise recently, but then fade just as quickly. It is too reminiscent of Cristopher Morel and Issac Paredes for my liking. At least with Paredes you get a good OBP with the 25 home run power. What actually gives me pause for Manzardo, is that Morel and Paredes hit right handed and as a left handed hitter Manzardo was awful against left handed pitching. More years like 2025, where he hit .186/.253/.419 against lefties and he may be relegated to being a strong side platoon hitter. It isn’t the worst thing, but enough for me to avoid him at his current value. I think names like Jonathan Aranda, Alec Burleson, Munetaka Murakami, and Spencer Horwitz offer more stable profiles or upsides, which I would roster before Manzardo.

(Daniel Labude)