The Dynasty Guru Annual Ranking Season is upon us!  Up next, first base!  The rankings presented here are the composite rankings of all the writers at The Dynasty Guru, and after healthy debate and only a little name-calling, we are ready to share them with you. The comments below each tier are the work of the writer cited at the end of the section.  Don’t forget to check out Chris and Drew’s analysis of each position on the Join the Ranks podcast.

31 – 40

In this 31-40 range of first base ranks, you really have a number of players that I view as steals this far down in the rankings. Jake Burger, Andrew Vaughn, Josh Bell, and Miguel Vargas all provide dynasty players with solid production, but not at the costs of the star players towards the top.

Burger in my opinion is being vastly undervalued due to his overall production in 2025. He battled through a wrist injury late in the year and it got to a point where Texas was platooning him just to try and help him make it to the end of the season. He only hit 16 home runs in 103 games and slashed .236/.269/.419. His barrel rate (13.9%) and hard hit rate (48.5%) were both above the 80th percentile among qualified players in the major leagues, as was his swing speed (74.6 mph). He’s been reliant in the past on his pull-side power, but whether due to his wrist injury or his other ailments, his pull rate last year sank to a career low of 34.6%. You can expect his power numbers and slash lines to return to his career averages. Outside of 2025, he’s hit .250 in every season starting in 2022 and has had a slugging number over .450. It’s all about staying healthy and on the field, while getting back to pulling the ball more and tapping into his 30+ home run power. He certainly provides the highest upside of this section.

Vaughn is an enigma, did the Milwaukee Brewers fix him after they traded for him mid-season, or was it a mirage designed to lure in unsuspecting dynasty players and fans alike? I for one believe his troubles are behind him and the end of his 2025 season are signs of better things to come. Last year after debuting for the Brewers, he had two months in which he hit over .365 (July and September). It could have been the protection he actually had in the Brewers lineup, but he did have a 75th percentile or better in almost every underlying stat: average exit velocity (91.6 mph), barrel rate (12%), hard hit rate (47.7%), launch angle sweet spot rate (38.4%), and squared up rate (32%). This is even with his numbers from his terrible performance to start the year with the Chicago White Sox, where he slashed .189/.218/.314 in 48 games. With his new found swing at the plate, he doesn’t project as a home run hitter from the first base position, which can hurt you in dynasty leagues, but he could be one of the better hitters with regard to batting average and might be a piece to roster if you have other players that can make up for his deficiencies.

Bell has been a model of consistency in recent years. He hasn’t posted the best stats, but he’s been steady nonetheless and that’s despite playing for seven different teams since the start of 2020. Last year, playing for the Washington Nationals, he had a slash line of .237/.325/.417, adding 22 home runs, 54 runs, and 63 RBI. Those numbers were lower than he was used to, but he wasn’t playing on the best team. Now on the Minnesota Twins, he could see a modest uptick in the counting stats. He doesn’t strike out much at all, his strikeout rates have decreased year-over-year for the last three seasons, with 2025 seeing it come in at 16.5%. He’s a solid producer, just don’t expect him to have any big breakout this year. Know what he’s done in the past and pencil those stats in and you can count on it coming to fruition.

Vargas has a lot of upside from this tier, he made some swing changes during the season in 2025 and saw his career trajectory bounce off rock bottom. On the year, he slashed .234/.316/.401, hit 16 home runs, added 32 doubles, scored 80 runs, and knocked in 60. In the month after he changed up his swing, he hit seven home runs, but saw the rest of the month’s totals sit at three or less. Don’t expect the boom he experienced to translate into any more improvements. He appears to be destined to be a low-to-mid batting average type hitter with a bunch of doubles, to go along with mid-tier run production. He has well below average swing speed (70.6 mph, 25th percentile), below average exit velocity (89.7 mph, 46th percentile), and a well below average hard hit rate (40.5%, 38th percentile). He has a clear path to everyday at-bats which will help with counting stats, but his time may come to an end in a few years if he hasn’t found a way to boost his underlying numbers.

Within this section there are a few prospect studs as well, players that almost assuredly will make future lists above this section once they crack major league lineups. Charlie Condon might have the highest upside, maybe even more than any other player in this section. His 2025 season started about a month after everyone else due to being slowed by an injury. Once he did get into games, he tore it up at  High-A Spokane,  slashing .312/.431/.420, with three home runs in 35 games. After a promotion to Double-A Hartford, he struggled quite a lot with his hit tool, he slashed .235/.342/.465. I think he actually is due for a breakout in 2026, after he hit near .290 in his second month at Double-A and crushed six home runs. Ryan Clifford is another prospect in this section who has a ton of power. He repeated Double-A Binghamton in 2025, after slashing .231/.350/.456, hitting 18 home runs, and adding 21 doubles. 2025 though saw him improve his power numbers just a little, bumping the home runs up to 24, but seeing the doubles drop to 18. Despite having a similar slash line, he decreased his strikeout rate from 28.9% to 25.9% and his contact rate followed suit going from 68.9% to 74.3%. He still has some big swing and miss concerns, but the power may outweigh them if he can continue to decrease his strikeouts in 2026. Coby Mayo is a prospect I am avoiding entirely from this section. He finally got his shot at some extended at-bats with the Baltimore Orioles in 2025 and dropped the ball. In 85 games, he slashed .217/.299/.388, but did have 11 home runs. With recent off-season acquisitions, the Orioles have seemed to shut the door on Mayo’s career with them entirely. Pete Alonso is manning first base, Samuel Bassalo is at DH, and Jordan Westburg is at third base. Barring major injury to the guys ahead of him, Mayo will continue to fade down rankings and into the obscurity of the forgotten and failed prospects, that is unless he is traded to a team with more opportunities.

The last three players in this section are all cautionary tales about waiting for first baseman in dynasty leagues, don’t do it, at least not this far down. Nolan Schanuel is all hit over power, having 13 and 12 home runs in his first two seasons in the bigs. He’s never topped 55 RBI or 65 runs, if you are in desperate need of a body to fill first base, he could be your guy, just don’t expect much of anything compared to others at the position. On the surface, it appears Spencer Horwitz is in a similar mold to Schanuel, but his final two months for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2025 did show he could be a little more. During that span, he hit eight home runs with a .297 batting average and had as many walks as strikeouts for a 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He could have a breakout this year if he can build on the final stretch he put together. Rhys Hoskins rounds out this section and as of writing this hasn’t signed with a team. He hit 12 home runs in 90 games during 2025, but lost his everyday at-bats to Andrew Vaughn. He could sign with a team to be a bench bat, but otherwise stay away from him.

(Brian Labude)

41 – 50

I feel like when I think of Ryan O’Hearn, I think of the prototype big, slugging, lefthanded first base bat. That is not actually what he is. O’Hearn is solid but does not hit for much power. He hit a career-high 17 home runs in 144 games in 2025. He manages to hit for a relatively high batting average and gets on base at a good clip for OBP leagues. O’Hearn signed with the Pirates this offseason and will probably share first base and with Spencer Horwitz. The Pirates also signed Marcell Ozuna to play DH, so I’m not sure that O’Hearn will play another 144 games again which decreases his value. He could gain outfield eligibility as the Pirates will need to squeeze these three into two spots.

As an archetype, I’m not sure there’s a less valuable player than a first base-only prospect. Jonathon Long is of the longest shot of that variety; the dreaded right-handed hitting first baseman. Much like Rockies pitchers if you avoid this prospect group altogether, you’re going to show a profit. That said, Long has a good approach at the plate. He also shows some power though he currently hits too many grounders and sprays his contact in the air too much for it to translate to home runs.

Luis Arraez is the poster child of the single category fantasy player. That said, outside of last year he has been exceptional at it. As an added bonus, he signed with the San Francisco Giants who reportedly will be playing him at second base next season. This is a boon to his value. Arraez will still only be 28 years old, so projecting another .320 batting average season is very reasonable. It will come with under 10 home runs and steals…perhaps in total between the two categories.

Some guys are just too good at contact for minor league pitchers to get out. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is one of those guys. He also has learned over the course of his 500 Major League plate appearances what Major League-caliber pitching does to guys who are so good at contact that they think that any pitch near the strike zone is a good one to hit. Encarnacion-Strand now finds himself behind Sal Stewart and Ke’Bryan Hays at the infield corners. At this point he is a 26-year-old righthanded hitting first baseman who may not hit without a drastic improvement in his approach.

C.J. Kayfus was in the batch of outfield prospects I wrote about earlier this offseason. You can read what I wrote here. The Guardians year after year seem to just throw a bunch of guys out into right field to see who sticks. This year I think Kayfus has an excellent chance to be the one that stays. He’ll likely hit in the bottom half of their order, but if he can manage 500 PA’s I don’t think that 20 homers are out of the question.

The Blue Jays signed Kazuma Okamoto from Japan this offseason. He hit 277 career home runs in Japan while slashing .274/.355/.501 through his age-29 season. The Jays seem to be handing Okamoto the third base job, as Vladimir Guerrero is cemented at first base. “My” projection system (it’s just a 50^th percentile average of my five favorites) thinks he’s a solid signing, projecting him to be pretty similar to Matt Chapman at the plate. After losing Anthony Santander for the season, Okamoto does not have any competition at third base. Even if he struggles defensively, he should get 500+ plate appearances if he’s healthy. He should be solid for fantasy purposes.

Poor Daulton Rushing. Similar to most Dodger prospects, he’s getting buried by talented Major League veterans that the Dodgers bring in via their bottomless wallet. Barring an injury to Will Smith, Rushing will not see much time at catcher in the near future, and he might not be second in line if Freddie Freeman is hurt either. He served as a backup catcher last season, catching 41 games but struggled at the plate in his sporadic playing time. He’s still an excellent hitter, slashing .278/.413/.519 across four minor league seasons. Rushing hits for power and has a good approach at the plate. His maximum exit velocity is merely average, but he doesn’t chase and seems to identify pitches well. Similar to Michael Busch a few seasons back, for Rushing to regain his fantasy value he needs a trade desperately.

I have no idea how Ryan Mountcastle sees many plate appearances barring injuries next season. Pete Alonso will play first base every single day, and rookie Samuel Basallo was slated for the DH role when he wasn’t spelling Adley Rutschman behind the plate. That leaves Mountcastle with a smidgen more than the weak side of a DH platoon’s worth of playing time. Keep in mind he slugged under .300 vs. left-handed pitching last season, so that might not even hold up. Given Mountcastle’s lack of defensive value, he might end up released at the end of spring training. Latching on with another team might also be his clearest shot at 400 plate appearances in 2026.

Xavier Isaac had a very dramatic 2025 minor league season. He underwent “live saving” brain surgery in July, described here. Isaac’s 2025 season is a lost one, but he still slugged .446 in Double-A over 41 games. Isaac has some issues with strikeouts, whiffing at a nearly 30% clip. I am still a believer in him, despite the fact Isaac is a first-base only prospect. To me he profiles similar to Adam Dunn if everything clicks for him. He’ll probably not hit for high averages, but he draws walks (19% walk rate in 2025) and when a pitcher makes a mistake Isaac will hit the ball hard. Isaac is an up-arrow prospect for me on this list.

Abimelec Ortiz was part of the prospect group that the Rangers sent to the Nationals to acquire MacKenzie Gore this offseason. He’s a 5’10” bowling-ball of a player, which is shorter than ideal for a first baseman. Ortiz has power, producing great exit velocity metrics in Triple-A Round Rock last season, and hits the ball in the air to the pull side. His body type looks like it might be difficult to maintain, and if he gains weight he’ll be a full time DH. Even if he doesn’t, there aren’t many first basemen shorter than 6’ so he may land there anyhow. The good news is that Ortiz may get a chance to play in Washington earlier than he would have in Texas as they may look to show off some of the young players they received for Gore. ZIPS in particular likes Ortiz, projecting him for 18 home runs over 130 games in 2026. That’s a ringing endorsement from a system that is tough on young players who have not yet debuted.

(Brandon Ring)