THE DYNASTY GURU’S PLAYERS TO TARGET: THIRD BASE
Which players are we targeting this year? Is it the young player poised for a breakout year or the consistent veteran who may not be flashy but quietly contributes to several fantasy categories? Or could it be the rookie/prospect who is being overlooked in fantasy circles? The Dynasty Guru writers are happy to share some of the names we’re targeting in drafts and trades.
Dynasty baseball managers are always searching for the next big thing and can overlook established options that can be acquired for a low price either in a draft or via trade. Third base presents two of these options that many fantasy managers have moved on from in Matt Chapman and Austin Riley.
Apparently at age 32, you may as well be a relic from the Eisenhower administration the way the dynasty community values Matt Chapman. That doesn’t mean he can’t significantly contribute to fantasy baseball success playing every day in the middle of the lineup for the San Francisco Giants.
Chapman is a lock for 20 home runs, may very well approach 30, and end up at around double digits in steals with a batting average around .250. This is not a cornerstone of the lineup profile, but compared to the price he would cost in a dynasty draft or to acquire in a trade, it is great value.
On the surface it appears Chapman is not trending up as his average bat speed did decline from 76.6 mph in 2024 to 75 mph in 2025. A closer look reveals that the drop may not be alarming as his average bat speed in his last 100 plate appearances (75.9 mph) was an improvement over the same span in the previous two seasons (75.3 and 75.6 mph). In addition, Chapman injured his hand diving back into first base on a pick off attempt on June 9 and was placed on the injured list only to return too quickly and end up back on the injured list in August. Hand issues are known to affect power and this injury was probably a larger contributor to metrics such as his exit velocity and barrel percentage declining in 2025 than an actual loss in ability.
He is getting older so it is not likely (but not impossible) there will be a spike in power, and the inevitable decline may be gradual or sudden. The buy low opportunity exists because it may not be evident at all in the short term for 2026. Chapman also improved his walk rate from 2024 to 2025 from 9.9% to 13.3% getting him on base at a respectable .340. This did not pay off with an abundance in runs scored or RBI last season, but an emergence from Jung Hoo Lee or Bryce Eldridge may help improve this area in 2026. The home runs were still there, totaling 21 in 2025 which was actually a higher rate per plate appearance than his 27 total in 2024.
After averaging 36 home runs and a .286 batting average from 2021-2023, Austin Riley was a fantasy darling for the Atlanta Braves. The next two years saw substantial injuries which required season ending surgeries to the hand (2024) and abdominal muscle (2025), limiting his plate appearances as well as contributing to a decline in on the field performance. The hope here is that with a clean bill of health and in his age 29 season, Riley can return to fantasy prominence.
Aside from the counting stats which were clearly impacted by the prolonged injury absences, there is some cause for concern with the 2025 season from Riley. Before the injury, his strikeout rate was up to a near untenable 28.6% and walk rate down to 6% leading to a poor on base profile and limiting his batted ball opportunities. That plate discipline decline along with lingering effects of the injuries sustained in the last two years will determine Riley’s fantasy value. This is because his exit velocity remained at an elite 93.2 mph in 2025 and his barrels per plate appearance held firm at 9.8. A concern with a hand injury, like the one Riley sustained in 2024 after being hit by a pitch, is the effect it can have on power. That is clearly not an issue as in 2025 he placed in the top 12% of MLB players in average exit velocity (92.3 mph), barrel percentage (15.2%), and hard hit percentage (50.2%). With those underlying metrics still in place, any positive regression in his bat to ball approach will play up for fantasy categories as he hits in the middle of a loaded Braves lineup, likely around sluggers Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, Jurickson Profar, and Drake Baldwin.
Riley is expected to participate in spring training without limits as of this writing. Assuming that report holds true to form, and he regains even a fraction of his plate discipline regression experienced in 2025, he is poised for a productive season. This would become a valuable piece for dynasty teams in their competitive window, or for rebuilding dynasty teams Riley can bring a solid return in a trade with a team looking to win now.