The Dynasty Guru Annual Ranking Season is upon us!  Leading off, the outfielders.  The rankings presented here are the composite rankings of all the writers at The Dynasty Guru, and after healthy debate and only a little name-calling, we are ready to share them with you. The comments below each tier are the work of the writer cited at the end of the section.  Don’t forget to check out Chris and Drew’s analysis of each position on the Join the Ranks podcast.

21 – 30

Having had the pleasure of facing Seiya Suzuki in multiple fantasy playoff matches this past season, it seemed like every time I checked a box score he had hit at least one, if not more, home runs. In 2025 he put together his most statistically imposing season, eclipsing 30 HRs for the first time in the states, and producing 103 RBIs. Still, I’m confident his 2026 will be even better. From a strength of lineup standpoint, the addition of Bregman offsets much of what was lost from Tucker, and players like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Moisés Ballesteros taking steps forward should only bolster the R/RBI production of Suzuki. Furthermore, Suzuki ran a career low BABIP of .282, which is projected to bounce back to ~.310 by most projection systems. This would bring the best of Seiya’s 2024 and 2025 together. I think he is a premier win-now bat in one of the best lineups in the MLB, with a favorable aging profile that makes him safe for a 3-year outlook. While Randy Arozarena did not have as strong of a finish to the season, he still accumulated 27 HRs and 31 steals, while providing solid ratios. Arozarena was actually better at T-Mobile Park than away (129 wRC+ vs. 111 wRC+), and continues to hit the ball hard (90th percentile hard hit%). His current output mirrors much of what Trea Turner is doing, but unlike Turner, Arozarena’s sprint speed is dropping with each year, bringing into question how many years one can rely on Arozarena to steal 30+, even 20+ bags. It may be worth looking to Christian Yelich for a comparison, as he dropped from 28 in 2023, to 21 in 2024 (in half as many PAs), to 16 in 2025. Now, Yelich’s injury history could be precipitating this drop, but I use him as a warning for Arozarena, who is getting much of his value from SBs. Yelich’s bat dropped from elite to good, which is supposed to happen when you turn 33. I believe you can expect this level of good to continue from Yelich, but I personally prefer to trade off a little of this good for the upside of a bounce-back from the following group of guys.

Of the three in this group, Jarren Duran’s definition of a bounceback is the haziest. I think it’s very feasible that he could go 20/30 again. He certainly has all the tools to do so, it is a matter of whether he is able to recapture the approach he had in 2024. Duran’s ‘struggles’ in 2025 were likely rooted in a boost to his chase-rate from 28.1% to 31.1%, a 3% rise that took him from 51st percentile to 30th percentile. His contact rate also dropped 5%, but this can best be explained by his increased chase, rather than any in-zone issues (88.7% Z-contact in 2024 vs. 88.0% Z-contact in 2025). The 2025 approach most closely resembles his 2023 approach, which is more than likely his true-self, rather than his 2024 self. Still, he feels safe for 15/25, with a realistic shot at 20/30, which is going to be valuable in a lineup that is producing a lot of runs in Boston, just without the stellar ratios of 2024. You cannot say the same about Michael Harris II’s floor going into 2026. Despite debuting a year earlier than Duran, he is still 5 years younger. The youth of Harris, combined with his incredible first two years in the MLB, make him an enticing buy-low. He has impressive bat speed (74.3 MPH), an obvious five-tool game, and is surrounded by a great lineup. However, none of this will be enough to overcome the 2nd worst O-swing% (swings at pitches out of the zone) of qualified hitters last year. Even worse is the fact that Harris II is not within the top 50 of hitters in Z-swing% (swings at pitches in the zone). He currently has a major issue distinguishing where the zone is, and pitchers are going to continue to attack this weakness until he can figure it out. I would go so far as to say this issue was present during his breakout 2022 and 2023 seasons, and has only been made worse as it gets attacked more. While his upside is larger, his floor is scary low, and I am not looking to take on his risk. What went wrong with Lawrence Butler in 2025? His contact rate dropped 6% to a dangerous <70% and he was unable to take advantage of the little league park they play in in Sacramento. Admittedly, it is difficult to predict what way his contact rate is going to go. Likely, he is in-between 2024 and 2025, making his ranking here completely deserved, but he is less likely than he was going into 2025 to take the next step to superstardom.

I wrote recently about Kyle Stowers in our “Lessons Learned in 2025” piece. I made the case that you can rarely if ever predict the kind of breakout Stowers had in 2025, and to an extent I still agree with this, but it’s still worth looking at what signs there were. Well, in 2024 Stowers swung the bat hard (73.7 MPH) and barreled up a lot of balls (10.9% barrel rate). While this was promising at the time, and you could make a case to apply this to a guy like Jordan Walker or Jesús Sanchez going into next year, Stowers did something that you really can’t predict. In 2025, he swung the bat harder (75 MPH), while simultaneously dropping his whiff (35.4% → 32.5%) and chase (32.6% → 27.9%). Importantly, his in-zone contact increased as well (76.8% → 79.3%), so the whiff improvement was not just an artifact of chasing less. The approach change is the thing that is most interesting to me. While it is true that he likely began chasing less because he started seeing more balls as pitchers became more afraid of him, his chase% stabilized around 26% by June through the rest of the season, showing it was a tangible change that he was able to hold through the season. I think he’s likely to repeat his incredible 2025, and will be watching for approach changes in guys like Walker or Sanchez going forward for reasonable opportunities to get in on these players before it’s too late. If there’s a guy in the bucket of hard-swinging potential breakouts that is most exciting, it’s Jac Caglianone. What differentiates him from the others is his minor league domination and contact skills. Despite swinging harder (77.4 MPH) than Stowers, Jac had a lower whiff rate (26.8%). The obvious issue for Jac is his chase-rate (38.5%). Unfortunately, there was no improvement in this facet either through the season. In this sense, he runs into the same problems that Michael Harris II does, which will likely be continually exploited. Still, the power is so prodigious that I am more willing to bet on Jac figuring it out than I am with Harris II. Additionally, with a .172 BABIP Jac is due some major positive regression next season. He is a favorite buy-low of mine right now.

Lastly, this group holds two blue chip prospects in Walker Jenkins and Max Clark. Both have similar questions of their ceilings, with likely differing answers. At 6’3” and 210 lbs, Jenkins has more room in his frame to add power. The hit-tool is solid, but not as elite as once thought with a 78.6% contact rate last season. He has been plagued by injuries, but has still shown an advanced approach for his age. How much power he is able to tap into will be the question, as he is expected to fall into the 10-15 steals range as he grows. My gut projects him to end up as a 25/10ish bat, with greater value in OBP leagues. The high safety of his profile (injuries aside) combined with the possibility for more impact than that are what make him a top-tier prospect, and one who should be hopefully getting his first taste in late 2026. Max Clark doesn’t have the same projection that Jenkins has, as he is already pretty maxed out for his frame at 6’0” 200lbs, but like Jenkins he has shown an incredibly advanced approach at the plate, and feels like an incredibly safe big leaguer. You can find these two interchangeably ranked on various lists, but I agree with our ranking of him above Jenkins. Despite the lack of projection, I think Clark just has ‘it.’ No, I’m not talking about his willingness to take on the most hard headed of baseball twitter, but rather the X-factor for Clark is just how hard of a worker he is. It was well publicized before the draft, and has shown to be true throughout his minor league ascent. I hate to get into narratives when analyzing fantasy baseball, but Clark seems like someone always willing to tinker to improve, which has me believing that he will unlock everything he can out of himself. Despite the home park, I like his chances to become a 20/40 hitter, and feel he is being slept on in the current landscape.

(Joe Juliette)

31 – 40

What a fun group this is. In a start-up draft, there’s something here for the win-now philosophy and something for the stock up for the future philosophy. There are even a couple players who will contribute in one category but will need complementary players on the roster for the fantasy team to be successful.

The High Risk/High Reward Veterans

When Jo Adell was a prospect, the question was whether his baseball skills would catch up with his superior athleticism. The past two seasons have answered that question with a qualified yes. He has become a source of power and he almost had 100 RBI for the Angels last season. He won’t help much in other categories, but those power stats will play. On the other hand, 27-year-old Luis Robert, Jr. may have his best year behind him (2023). After hitting 38 home runs in 2023, he’s only hit 14 each of the past two seasons, and all other significant statistics, including batting average and slugging average, are moving in the wrong direction. Last season he hit only .211 against right-handers, could he be headed for a weak-side platoon? 

Although it feels like we’ve been talking about Andy Pages forever, he is only 24 years old. If he were on any other team, his .272/.313/461 slash line with 27 home runs, 86 runs batted in, and 14 stolen bases would get a lot more notice. He will continue to be an above-average producer. Another young player who has been on the radar for a long time is 22-year-old Jasson Domínguez. It’s not hard to see why some people are worried about his production. He chases too much (31% chase rate last year), his contact rate is slightly below average (84% in zone, 75% overall), and his walk rate and OBP have dropped significantly since his early days in the minors. On the other hand, last year his hard-hit rate increased over 2024, he plays in a lineup that will provide opportunities to drive in runs, and he’s the “best shoe tier” in the game. 

Heliot Ramos had a strong first half in 2025 (.262 BA, 14 HR), then tailed off in the second half (.248 BA, 7 HR). Heliot Ramos had a strong first half in 2024 (.298 BA, 14 HR), then tailed off in the second half (.242 BA, 8 HR). The full-season numbers aren’t terrible, but I’ll need to see a full season of consistent production before I buy in. 

The Highly Regarded Prospects

The three prospects in this tier are exciting. Lazaro Montes has some contact issues, but still managed to post a .241/.354/.504 slash line with 32 home runs across two levels in 2025. The power is very real, and he’s a pull-side fly ball hitter. I’m not letting the contact issues scare me away just yet. Josue De Paula and Zyhir Hope are the top two prospects in the Dodgers system, because, of course they are. De Paula is a left-handed pull hitter who is finding his power stroke. At 6’3” 185, he will grow into his frame and the power will continue to come. Like Montes he has some holes in his swing, but De Paula’s OBP and stolen bases set him apart from Montes. Hope came over to the Dodgers from the Cubs in the Michael Busch trade. Although Hope has a smaller frame than Montes and De Paula, he swings hard and does damage when he connects. Like the others, Hope will need to learn to handle the high heat, but at 20-years-old, he has time to work on that. 

The One Trick Ponies

Smack dab in the middle of this group are two players who will each provide fantasy value in specific categories. Kerry Carpenter will hit home runs against right-handed pitchers. Although he has hit some highlight home runs against lefties, his career splits make it clear that his value is in the strong side platoon. He’s a free swinger with decent contact rates who this year posted a decent .252 batting average to go with 26 home runs. In addition to platooning, injuries have limited his plate appearances, and his incredibly low walk percentage results will be a detriment in OBP leagues. On the side of that coin is Steven Kwan, who is a contact machine. Kwan has a great eye at the plate, as exhibited by a low 23% chase rate. When he did swing at a pitch out of the zone last season, his contact rate was 79%, and on pitches in the zone it was an other worldly 96%. Unfortunately from a fantasy perspective, he doesn’t provide much else. His BABIP and OBP dropped in 2025, and will likely rebound, but the Cleveland lineup isn’t providing much punch behind him, and he has yet to score over 100 runs in a season.

(Drew Klein)

41 – 50

I feel like Tommy when he walked into that empty room right before he got whacked in Goodfellas. They might as well have told me to dress up like a clown for your amusement while I write this. They must have thought this was funny. Funny how? Funny like a clown? Do I amuse you? What do you mean, you mean with the way I write? I’m here to make you laugh? How the heck am I funny? Tell me! Tell me what’s funny!? 

So my fellow paisans at TDG set me up by ranking Mike Trout 41st among outfielders for 2026. And now I am the one who has to tell you that one of the greatest to ever play the game… this frickin’ guy who single handedly won fantasy championships since 2012 is now outside the Top 40? How can I write about anything else? Ehhh… Fuggedaboudid. Let’s get this over with. I’m going to sound like a mamaluke regardless. 

So, this kid from South Jersey hasn’t played anything close to a full season since 2022. For the first time since his 40-game cup of coffee in 2011, his OPS dipped under .800 last season. What I’m sayin’ is, if we look at the seasons where Trout had at least 350 at-bats, last year stunk worse than a cheap cut of gabagool. I mean this guy here had career lows across the board in AVG, xBA, OBP, ISO, and every advanced plus-stat out there. Whatchagunnado. To be fair to the kid we are comparing that to elite-type numbers he racked up in his prime. 

But there is a problem that might curtail any hope of a career renaissance. When you watch the tape, Trout simply can’t catch up to pitches like he used to. He admitted this last season, citing a reluctance to tweak his mechanics to match today’s velocity and movement. You see that in his career-low numbers against anything outside of a fastball. This is especially evident in his -2.8 runs above average against sliders. He isn’t necessarily chasing more, but he’s whiffing at a higher clip. Another thing I noticed is that his O-Contact rate cratered to 46.3% which is a far cry from the 60-plus percent he maintained for most of his career. Naturally, the league has caught on, and they’re feeding him breaking and off-speed pitches outside the zone. Now I’m no gidrul. I know even the slightest tweak in a swing is no small feat. 

But, let me give you the rigamarole on his hitting mechanics to show you somethin’. Trout’s stance is unique in that his elbows and hands are held up high toward his ear. He also utilizes an exaggerated leg kick that is parallel to his hip as the primary timing mechanism for his load. While common across the league, a kick this pronounced significantly narrows the margin for error. As his front leg reaches forward, his hands stay back, stretching his frame like a rubber band. Then comes the rotation with his front foot plants down and out, his hips clear thus stopping his back knee to generate power. All the while, his head remains centered, making it look as if he is physically moving into the ball through his follow-through. If that sounds complicated, it’s because it is. There are a lot of moving parts. A younger Trout possessed the raw twitch-fiber talent and timing to keep these moving parts in sync to meet or get under the ball for the best launch angle. But here’s the rub… the intricacies that made his swing look like something that should be taught in a textbook are now a hindrance to the superior balance and timing he once had.

Now, relax.. with all that being said, The Millville Meteor recognized this. In an interview with the Orange County Register during the final week of the 2025 season, Trout revealed that raising his hands and elbow caused his head to move in a way that prevented him from tracking the ball with both eyes. He plans to spend the entire off-season adjusting his loading phase, noting that he finally “knows what he needs to work on” to get back on track. So what I’m sayin’ is that this is the first off-season in years that this kid is actually healthy.

Another positive indicator was that he was pretty much at par with his career numbers in Exit Velocity, Hard Hit% and Barrels which tells me it isn’t a physical issue. So, let’s say we chalk up last season to him getting himself back to playing an entire season. Ya know what I’m sayin’? The kid needed to knock the rust off. Also, let us not forget he was dealing with a nagging bone bruise in his left knee for most of the season. It isn’t like the kid is over the hill! Maron’, the kid is only nine months older than Aaron Judge!

Ehhh.. 🤌 So what are we even talking about? Well, you didn’t hear it from me, but a little birdie told me that Trout will figure this out and this time next year make all of you look like clowns if you move on from him. Or maybe he won’t then all I can say is Ohhh… noooo!

(Ryan Felix Fernandes)

51 – 60

Throughout his minor league career Addison Barger looked to be the stereotypical utility player. He was playing 15-20 games at every infield spot with some corner outfield mixed in. Then Barger started flashing some game power and his profile changed. He will go into 2026 as a 3B and OF eligible player, but if the 2025 playoffs are any indication he will settle into the Blue Jays’ RF position going forward. On top of likely winning a full-time position for 2026 and the plate appearances associated with that, the good news is that his bat will play there. Barger hit 21 home runs in 135 games, and he kept his strikeout rate at a manageable 24%. Barger still has some warts in his offensive game as he is prone to chase which limits the walks he draws and keeps him out of good hitting counts. He posted 85^th or better average, 90^th percentile, and maximum exit velocities in 2025 and he gets all this hard contact into the air. If he can cut the number of swings he takes at pitches out of the zone Barger can take another large leap up dynasty outfield rankings.

After breaking out in 2024, Brenton Doyle struggled in 2025. He posted a .235/.276/.378 slash line with 15 home runs and 18 steals. Doyle’s results were sparkling at home, where he slugged .502…40 full points higher than his road OPS! As a right-handed batter he had similar splits against left-handed pitching and really struggled against righties. He had two blazing hot months in July and August, but the underlying numbers suggest he was either seeing his favored splits (vs. LHP while at home) during those months or he was getting some batted ball luck. Doyle remains one of the best centerfielders in baseball and the Rockies will need him patrolling their gigantic outfield. If he is healthy 550+ plate appearances are in his future in 2026, and he could be good value if he returns to his 2024 form. Unfortunately, his poor offensive seasons are outnumbering his good one 2 to 1.

Taylor Ward was involved in a fairly shocking trade this offseason, moving from the Angels to the Orioles for Grayson Rodriguez. The Orioles have been chasing power without much success for years through player development. They seem to have adopted a new strategy by acquiring established players. Ward hit 36 home runs last season in the Angels outfield and should take over the same role in Baltimore in 2026. Ward features one of the lowest bat-speeds in the major leagues, but he doesn’t chase pitches, makes contact when he swings at pitches in the zone, and hits the ball in the air. Despite his slow bat and low exit velocities, Ward has consistently hit 25 home runs each year since 2022 and is about 10% better than average on offense by OPS+. I don’t expect another 36 home runs in 2026, but another 20-25 while hitting in the back half of the Orioles lineup seems reasonable.

What to say about Jurickson Profar? At 32 years old he is also expected to play full time in Atlanta’s left field spot, should get 20-25 home runs if healthy, and will likely hit in the 5-7^th spot in the lineup. His bat speed issues are not as pronounced as Ward’s, as Profar’s run only slightly below average. One positive is that in Atlanta his ground ball rate dipped 7% over his historical 42% rate, though his swing may have gotten too steep. He also hit fewer line drives than ever, and his infield flyball rate spiked by 8% per Fangraphs. If he can find a happy medium between his former groundball profile and his new popup-heavy profile, Profar should continue his early 30’s resurgence after a mostly disappointing career for the former #1 overall prospect.

Sal Frelick is the prototype for the “better in real life than fantasy” player archetype. He is a young player who will grind out AB’s and doesn’t seem to care about anything but winning. A true throwback type of player. Frelick’s frame is going to limit him, and he is unlikely to hit more than 15 home runs despite being an everyday player. He’s a smart, fast baserunner who gets on base but probably can’t steal 25 bases. He hits a lot of ground balls, bunts for hits, and hates to strike out. Anecdotally, I think his poor batted ball numbers and low bat speed, hard hit, and exit velocities are more reflective of his “contact at all costs” approach than his true physical ability. His .288 batting average was well above his .255 Expected Batting Average per Baseball Savant. As a left-handed batter with a ground ball-heavy approach I am not sure it’s reasonable to expect another season among league leaders in batting average in 2026. If Frelick is not able to buoy your team’s rate stats, I’m just not sure he has a lot of value in anything but the deepest leagues.

Dylan Crews had the highest variance in the rankings in this area. He was as high as 33^rd on one list and did not make the list of one ranker. Crews was the second overall pick by the Nationals in 2023, making his Major League debut the following season. Questions arose late in the draft process related to his collegiate batted ball profile, and those have not abated. Crews currently hits far too many ground balls to be a productive hitter, despite good bat speed and a solid approach. The good news is that he’s only 24, is a solid centerfielder, and considering his draft pedigree the Nationals will not give up on him quickly. He will have opportunities to figure out his offense. I fear that all of his minor issues will be too much to overcome though.

Cam Smith had a whirlwind 18 months starting with the 2024 draft. He was the Cubs’ 1^st round pick at 14^th overall and had a sizzling .313/.396/.609 32-game debut and reached Double-A Knoxville. He was the top prospect the Cubs traded last offseason to get Kyle, and he then made the Astros opening day roster. Smith rewarded that choice with a solid .277/.347/.418 slash line in the first half. Then the wheels fell off and he hit .154/.247/.242 the rest of the way in 2025. Smith has 84^th percentile bat speed but does not barrel up pitches often. His average exit velocities are only 25^th percentile while his 90^th percentile and maximum exit velocities are both above average or better. In many ways his profile is similar to Crews, though Crews makes more frequent contact and does not reach Smith’s maximum exit velocities. Smith could end up in Triple-A to start the season to iron these issues out, or with a strong spring he can build upon his 2025 first half numbers. I’m not sure there’s a young player with such a wide variety of outcomes for 2026. He’ll be a fun player to track.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s season was similar to Cam Smith’s, in that it featured a post All Star break collapse on offense. Rafaela is an elite centerfield defender and baserunner, giving him a lot of real-life value and opportunities. His bat speed is only 31^st percentile, and he steadfastly refuses to take a walk. He swings at nearly every pitch he sees with a 2^nd (!) percentile chase rate. Amazingly he is making contact with those pitches on nearly 60% of those swings. As you can imagine this would serve to suppress his barrel and hard-hit rates just from the volume of terrible pitches that he’s able to hit. As bad as those numbers are, if you’re looking for a bright side, it’s that he’s still 25 and after three seasons his batted profile has incrementally improved. The key to Rafaela’s future breakout, if one is coming at all, might just be as simple as finding a way to identify and lay off pitches he can’t drive hard.

The Dodgers are loaded with good outfield prospects playing in Double-A and lower. Eduardo Quintero might end up the best of the bunch. After struggling in 2024 at Single-A Rancho Cucamonga after a late promotion out of the Rookie League, Quintero returned to Single-A with some swing tweaks that dropped his ground ball rate from 54% to 36% and rounded out his profile to have a better all-fields approach. He finished his 2025 season at age 19 in High-A and posted a .259/.384/.440 over his 32 games there. Quintero reportedly has struggled with improved velocity as he advanced levels and has a below average 76% zone contact rate. He does not chase, but that could be due to a slightly passive approach as he swings at only 57% of pitches he sees in the strike zone. Quintero is an above average runner and the Dodgers have kept him in center field so far.

Daulton Varsho managed to hit 20 home runs in just 271 plate appearances last season. His bat speed would have been an elite 75.6 mph had he had enough plate appearances to qualify for percentiles. His 90^th percentile and maximum exit velocities were above average. Varsho’s warts at the plate were still there, as he struck out 28% of the time, didn’t draw walks and chased pitches out of the zone frequently. One final indicator that his powerful 2025 results were sample size noise rather than true improvement is that 21% of his flyballs left the park, a number almost double his career norms. His glove should keep him in the lineup, though 2024 rotator cuff surgery sapped his arm strength. If healthy Varsho should approach his former production levels, but merely doubling his 2025 home run totals seems far-fetched. Expect another low average/OBP, 25 home runs, and run/RBI totals that you’d expect with wherever the Jays decide to put him in the lineup.

(Brandon Ring)