Merry Christmas and happy holidays! We have a very special treat for you today. As you spend time with your family, we have put together The Dynasty Guru’s 2026 Consensus FYPD Rankings. This year we had five writers jump into the daunting task of breaking down players eligible for your upcoming first-year player drafts and generate the wonderful output you can see below. We included players drafted in the 2025 MLB draft, potential international free-agent signings, and rumored J15 signings. Please enjoy our Christmas gift to you!

 

Tier One

Rank	Player	Average Ranking	Highest Rank	Lowest Rank
1	Tatsuya Imai	2.80	1	6
2	Eli Willits	4.00	1	7
3	Kade Anderson	4.80	3	7
4	Seth Hernandez	4.20	1	10
5	JoJo Parker	5.00	2	9
6	Liam Doyle	5.20	1	11
7	Munetaka Murakami	6.00	3	12

Bulldog, tank, one tough SOB. These are the words that come to mind when we see Liam Doyle’s demeanor on the mound. When he’s got the ball, Doyle lets everyone know he will not back down from anyone in the batter’s box. It’s a page directly from the Mad Max Scherzer playbook. Much like Scherzer, Doyle has a full effort delivery and attacks batters with a mid-90s fastball that can touch 100 MPH. While not a harbinger of doom, the delivery does raise concern regarding his arm’s health. But I only award it a touch more risk, compared to pitchers with cleaner arm actions. Additionally, Doyle is not the classic, high-velocity/low-accuracy ‘thrower’ we see too often. Even with that much heat and effort, the southpaw can repeatedly locate his four-seamer where he wants it. The resulting low walk rates have maintained my confidence in his ability to handle a starter’s workload. The downside of having this command and firepower coming at batters from the left side? Doyle hasn’t yet needed to refine the rest of his arsenal to be effective. Undoubtedly, this adds some risk to the profile. Though it’s not as if he’s a one-pitch pitcher. His cutter, slider, and changeup all have the opportunity to become average or better pitches. If any pitcher has the work ethic to improve his arsenal quickly, it’s this potential front-line starter. With some of the Cardinals’ offseason moves, I think it’s less likely we’ll see Doyle in the majors in 2026. But I still have Doyle as my top pick, in the non-Japanese Pro-division of the FYPD. I love the upside and floor that much. (Chris Knock)

 

I share the opinion of several pundits that this is not a particularly strong FYPD class for fantasy purposes. In fact, for the first time in memory, if the picks fall right, I think I’ll borrow from the 2021 Angels strategy and select all college pitchers, although there’s no guarantee I’ll do much better than they did. That isn’t to say that there aren’t some interesting hitters in the draft (get used to this draft being described as “interesting”) and I’ll try to highlight a few of those hitters in this article.

I will let my colleagues go deep on the pitchers in our top tier. Personally, I rank them in the following order: Imai, Doyle, Hernandez, and Anderson. I think Imai should be on the top for proximity alone, and after that, I wouldn’t argue with any order of the next three. Personally, I love Doyle’s fastball.

The hitter in this group that I’m targeting is Eli Willits, a high school shortstop drafted by the Nationals. In the absence of low-risk power hitters that we’ve seen in the past couple of drafts, I’m looking for high-floor players like Willits. He has excellent contact skills and the defensive skills to stay at shortstop. At 18 years old, he is 6’1” and 180 pounds, and the power might come if he fills out and increases his hard hit rate. If the power doesn’t develop, his ceiling may be CI in deeper leagues. In this year’s draft, I’ll bet on the power development. (Drew Klein)

 

I love this tier and there really isn’t much of a wrong choice in the top seven, more of a preference. For a win now piece or a piece that can have actual value day one of the season, Tatsuya Imai and Munetaka Murakami are great picks. Imai has the looks of a Hurston Waldrep caliber of a starting pitcher, but with better fastball command. Should make an impact as a SP3 right away. Murakami, having just signed with the Chicago White Sox will offer much needed power and in a super home run friendly ballpark. He will be given every opportunity to produce, so his fantasy value might actually be higher now given the signing. My personal favorite in this tier is Seth Hernandez. You may have to wait longer for him to reach the major leagues, but his stuff (100+ MPH fastball and multiple plus secondary pitches) can be of the top level aces in baseball. He is a long way off, but if you value upside, Hernandez is my pick. He might have the highest upside of everyone in this draft. (Daniel Labude)

 

Our Tier 1 is yet again loaded with the age old question for dynasty players, “Do you take the high school phenom hitter, the Konnor Griffin type,” or “Do you take the elite college pitcher that should move through the minor leagues fast, the Paul Skenes type,” or how about “Do you take the international stars coming to a baseball diamond in the big leagues this Spring.” In this tier, you have multiple choices of all of these, but I’m going for option four, “Take the high school flame thrower and bet on upside!” Seth Hernandez brings four pitches with him to the mound, three can be elite, the fastball is in the upper 90s already and could be generational, while the secondaries are special as well. The risk is high, but sometimes you have got to bluff the table, while holding nothing! (Brian Labude)

 

Tier Two

Rank	Player	Average Ranking	Highest Rank	Lowest Rank
8	Ethan Holliday	9.00	6	13
9	Aiva Arquette	9.20	5	16
10	Kyson Witherspoon	12.80	7	17
11	Ethan Conrad	15.20	11	28
12	Jamie Arnold	16.20	5	25
13	Jace LaViolette	17.40	14	19
14	Kazuma Okamoto	17.80	11	29
15	Xavier Neyens	17.80	11	21
16	Steele Hall	18.00	8	34
17	Andrew Fischer	21.00	10	29
18	Kruz Schoolcraft	21.00	10	29
19	Gage Wood	22.20	9	36
20	Kayson Cunningham	25.40	10	50
21	Tyler Bremner	21.00	9	34
22	Gavin Fien	22.00	12	35
23	Dax Kilby	22.80	14	37

Another one of the intriguing college arms in this FYPD class, Kyson Witherspoon may well end up as the best arm out of them all. The righthander has an upper 90s fastball that he pairs well with a 12-to-6 curveball that looks like will be his big wipeout pitch. Walks were a big issue his sophomore year but he cut them almost in half his draft season, dropping his walk rate to under 6% while increasing his strikeout rate. Those lovely adjustments left him with a 26% K-BB% last year in college and helped him pitch almost 6 IP every outing. These are all great things to see when you also look at who drafted him. Boston has developed a number of intriguing pitchers over the last few years, albeit with seemingly little fanfare. Perhaps because none have gotten fully seasons in the majors yet, but there are quite a few arms coming up through their development system at the moment. Regardless of that organizational competition, I’d be elated to get Witherspoon at the tail end of the first round in an FYPD. I’m excited to see what they can do with his raw talent. (Chris Knock)

 

Tier two has sixteen players, which is an excellent illustration of the talent distribution in the pool. You could put these players in almost any order, and with the hitters, the biggest differential will be the fantasy manager’s tolerance for risk. For the manager willing to roll the dice on potential power at the risk of a poor hit tool, Aiva Arquette would be the pick. Arquette played shortstop at Oregon State last year after playing second base at the University of Washington the year before. He’s built for power (6’5”, 220) and had one of the highest hard hit rates in the NCAA last year. The concern is the strikeout rate, which approached 20% in college and was 23% in 117 plate appearances at High-A Beloit last year. The low-risk hitter I like in this group is shortstop Kayson Cunningham, drafted out of high school by the Arizona Diamondbacks. Much like Eli Willits (see above), Cunningham has excellent bat control and contact skills and has not yet shown much power. Unlike Willits, Cunningham doesn’t have the frame that projects to develop power (5’10” 175), so it’s more difficult to project that he will have that as part of his game, but his hit tool could be very good, if not elite. (Drew Klein)

 

Andrew Fischer was the Brewers’ first round pick this season after hitting 25 home runs at the University of Tennessee. He ceded third base to Billy Amick and played mostly first before playing exclusively at third base in 19 professional games. At the plate Fischer batted .311/.402/.446 while playing through a wrist injury at High-A Wisconsin. He already sits highly in our Third Base Prospect rankings. When they are finalized, Fischer will also land in the back half of our overall Dynasty Third Base rankings. If he continues hitting while maintaining an acceptable level of defense, look for him to continue to rise at a very shallow fantasy baseball position. (Brandon Ring)

 

Dax Kilby had a terrific 18-game debut at Low-A Tampa for the Yankees. He slashed .353/.457/.441, had a miniscule K-rate and walked more than he struck out. For now, he’s a shortstop but many evaluators believe his arm is insufficient to stay there.  Kilby will probably shift to either 2B or left field sooner rather than later. The great news is that he’s already learned the “old person” skills at the plate. He controls the zone well, takes his walks, and he doesn’t chase, all while not being passive. He is athletic (16 steals in 18 games) and possesses a short, quick swing with some juice in it. The Yankees look to have gotten a steal at pick 39. (Brandon Ring)

 

This tier I am a bit skeptical of, and that starts out immediately with Ethan Holliday. He has immense potential, but I question the bat-to-ball skills and his 39.3% strikeout rate over 84 plate appearances after he was drafted did nothing to change my mind. If the strikeouts are reined in, Holliday could take off like his brother did.

This tier does have two of my biggest value picks of the class, Gage Wood and Kruz Schoolcraft. I fully believe this is a draft of starting pitching and Wood and Schoolcraft are two of the best. Wood has the swing and miss stuff to be a SP1, with his upper 90s fastball and multiple big breaking balls. If he can manage to throw more strikes, he will take that next step and be one of the best players from this class. I even have him in the top 10 in this class for that reason. The stuff is there and the pitches play great together, along with a repeatable delivery. He could be a fast mover through the minor leagues as well. Schoolcraft, like Wood, I have in my personal Top 10 FYPD rankings. He has elite size (6-foot-8) and elite extension on his fastball that can reach into the upper 90s. He can pair that with a plus changeup and what I think could be an even better slider down the line. If you miss out on Seth Hernandez, Schoolcraft is my next choice for a fast rising, elite upside, coming out of high school starting pitcher. (Daniel Labude)

 

This second tier holds so many of my favorite FYPD guys. You got Jace LaViolette standing tall above the pack though and he is my favorite pick for having a big breakout in 2026, with a meteoric rise up rankings following suit. A year ago, he was in the same position that Roch Cholowsky is in now, the consensus number one pick heading into the baseball season. LaViolette stumbled though, his home runs dropped from 29 to 18 and his slash line plummeted from .305/.449/.726 to .258/.427/.576. On a positive note, his strikeout rate stayed hovering around 25%, while his walk rates bumped up from 19.2% to 21.8%. As long as he keeps his OBP high and avoids letting the swing and miss run rampant, he should be able to tap into his plus-plus power and be the Paul Bunyan bat of first-year player drafts.

On the pitching side, I’m really high on Jamie Arnold. I think his Chris Sale – esque funky delivery is what stands out the most. His attack angles make at-bats uncomfortable for hitters, then you get to his stuff. A solid fastball paired with a wicked breaking ball, puts him into an elite category, in my opinion. He may have higher relief pitcher risk than the other pitchers because of his delivery, but his upside is just too good to not walk away with rostering him if you pick in this tier. (Brian Labude)

Tier Three

Rank	Player	Average Ranking	Highest Rank	Lowest Rank
24	Ike Irish	19.60	13	30
25	Devin Taylor	24.40	12	34
26	Jaden Fauske	31.00	22	38
27	Billy Carlson	31.60	12	55
28	Wehiwa Aloy	34.20	13	55
29	Josh Hammond	35.40	22	54
30	Sean Gamble	35.60	20	55
31	Gavin Kilen	40.40	21	62
32	Daniel Pierce	42.00	15	86
33	Quentin Young	42.00	18	86
34	AJ Russell	42.20	28	70
35	Anthony Eyanson	62.00	39	86

You do not have to squint to see similarities between Daniel Pierce and Carson Williams. Much like the young major leaguer, Pierce is also an athletic shortstop who’s got plus defense, lots of speed, and enough power to dream on. Negative comparisons are also easily made, mostly around the pretty important hit tool. But a hit tool question is rarely the exception when you’re a high school draftee. Not that it shouldn’t be listed for Pierce, he’s got a lot of noise in his swing. But with a focus on that early in his development path can help him to become an average hitter at the plate. And despite having Williams getting cozy in the majors, the Rays obviously love the potential in Pierce. He was their earliest first-round pick in the last 7 years, and Tampa gave him the full slot signing bonus to keep him from college. With the Rays’ player development track record, I will follow their lead and look to draft Pierce near the tail end of Round 2. (Chris Knock)

 

In the FYPD preview episode of Join the Ranks, Chris and I wondered which pitchers would be this year’s version of Gage Jump (Jump was not ranked in TDG’s top 100 FYPD in 2025 and surprised us by pitching across two levels and climbing up rankings lists). Two of my nominees are in this tier, A.J. Russell of the Rangers and Anthony Eyanson of the Red Sox. Russell is a 6’6” right-hander out of the University of Tennessee with a 70 grade fastball that sits at 93-94. He had elbow brace surgery in 2024 and pitched only 25 innings in 2025, which does create some doubt. Although he pitched in relief last year to manage innings, he is on track to be stretched out into a starting role. The risk is there, but the potential reward could be SP3 with better-than-average strikeout rates. Eyanson, on the other hand (figuratively, not literally, as he is also right-handed), pitched 108 innings last year at LSU and posted a 26% K-BB rate. Even though Eyanson’s fastball tops out at 98 mph, his best pitches are his slider and curveball. The Red Sox have had very good success developing pitchers recently and it will be no surprise to see Eyanson move up the rankings quickly. I’m making sure to target at least one of these pitchers in all my FYPD drafts this year. (Drew Klein)

 

The Athletics took Devin Taylor in the 2nd round and look to be getting a very solid player. During his three seasons at Indiana and two stints in wood-bat summer leagues Taylor did nothing but mash. He shows strong plate discipline and outside of his short professional debut has posted solid walk and strikeout percentages. Taylor hit 56 home runs in his college career and produced 90th percentile exit velocities of 104 mph and topped out at around 112 mph professionally. He has never stolen bases, and his outfield defense is awkward. He is already playing exclusively in the corner outfield spots, so there will be a lot of pressure on his bat if he continues to move down the defensive spectrum. Fortunately, he just might develop the type of bat that can handle that pressure. (Brandon Ring)

 

If you are chasing upside, Quentin Young is an eye-popping bat that could be a star if everything comes together. There are big questions about his contact skills and strikeouts may always be a question mark, but his power at 6-foot-6 could be very special. (Daniel Labude)

 

This third tier seems to house a bunch of the players that have been fading since the MLB draft back in July. Billy Carlson, Ike Irish, Gavin Kilen, and Daniel Pierce are among the players that have seen a step back in their dynasty value from where they were drafted. Someone who I think has the opposite turn in trajectory, is Jaden Fauske. He has a much better frame then a lot of the players in this tier, which helps to add to his power projection. His plate discipline should allow his bat to play up more than what his power will ultimately produce. A Caleb Bonemer type rise in year one could be in store for him if the White Sox can get him going from Day 1. (Brian Labude)

Tier Four

Rank	Player	Average Ranking	Highest Rank	Lowest Rank
36	Brady Ebel	42.20	31	56
37	Nick Becker	46.20	33	70
38	Landon Harmon	46.80	24	86
39	Slater de Brun	47.20	33	64
40	Marek Houston	47.40	23	86
41	Miguel Sime	48.00	29	64
42	Cam Leiter	48.60	21	86
43	Marcus Phillips	50.00	32	86
44	Patrick Forbes	50.80	36	86
45	Brendan Summerhill	52.20	26	86
46	Ethan Petry	55.40	27	86
47	Mitch Voit	56.40	33	86
48	Riley Quick	56.80	43	86
49	Tim Piasentin	63.80	26	86
50	Coy James	58.00	35	86
51	Zachary Root	58.25	39	86
52	Michael Oliveto	58.60	23	86
53	Taitn Gray	61.20	35	86
54	Josh Owens	62.20	34	86
55	Cam Cannarella	62.80	31	86
56	Caden Bodine	63.40	26	86
57	Luke Stevenson	63.80	39	86
58	Jordan Yost	65.00	37	86
59	Aidan West	65.60	34	86
60	Korbyn Dickerson	65.80	37	86

It’s no secret that I like athletic shortstops. So, my choosing to highlight Coy James shouldn’t be a surprise. Despite not playing up to scouts’ full expectations leading into the draft, James still played well enough to win the North Carolina HS Player of the Year. Swing and miss became a large part of his game as a senior, and his added strength slowed down his base-stealing abilities. Despite the stock drop, the Nationals still gave him a well over slot signing bonus in the 5th round – after taking Eli Willits to boot. That says a lot for some of his underlying tools. That strength I mentioned did help out his in-game power.  With some further work with professional coaches, it’s possible he’s able to continue into a dynamic fantasy threat. MLB.com compared him to Trevor Story as a 90% outcome, but I’d rather see him lean into more power. My 90% dreamcast outcome is more Brandon Lowe than Story, and yes, that includes a potential move to 2B. (Chris Knock)

 

Out of all the players in this draft, I may actually be most excited to see what becomes of Taitn Gray. The Iowa kid has huge fantasy potential but is extremely raw and unproven. In case you missed my rundown on him on our Join The Ranks FYPD pod episode, Gray is a switch-hitting, power-over-hit, cold-weather HS catcher. If that mouthful of descriptors has you plenty nervous to draft him, I understand. But can I tell you that he his 109 MPH showcase exit velocity was later topped by his Draft Combine exit velocity of 114.5 MPH! That was the third-highest of any HS or college batter! Gray was hitting homers that day from both sides of the plate with ease. And while that swing is long, it is also simple and powerful. He’s also not some lumbering backstop. Gray is pretty athletic for his size and per Baseball America may be able to cover an OF corner spot at some point. If Tampa wants to keep Gray behind the plate, the prospect road will be long. Depending on the league type and my roster makeup, I may not be drafting Gray because of that. But I will definitely be watching him because if that bat clicks, his stock will soar. (Chris Knock)

 

In my personal rankings, I had catcher Caden Bodine in the tier above this one. Keeping with my personal theme of low-risk high-contact bats, the switch-hitting Bodine had strikeout rates under 10% through college and hit .326 in his brief pro debut last year. He only reached double digits in home runs once in his college career and won’t be a dependable source of power. Bodine was drafted by Baltimore and traded to Tampa as part of the Shane Baz deal.  I don’t worry too much about FYPD players being positionally blocked for many reasons, but since Baltimore seems to stockpile catchers, the Tampa system may have a clearer path for Bodine.  That said, switch-hitting catchers who are still working on their receiving skills do not rocket through systems, so managers who draft Bodine should be prepared to stash him for a while. (Drew Klein)

 

Once upon a time the Nationals were a player-development machine. They won a World Series title with a completely homegrown core of superstars. Fast forward to present day and it’s a very different story, as they have struggled to draft and develop any players of consequence. One demographic they are starting to work some magic in are tall, athletic, hard throwing pitchers such as Jarlin Susana and Travis Sykora. The latest player to fit that mold is third round pick Landon Harmon. He is a 6’5” righthander who already has mid-upper 90’s in the tank at times. High school righthanders are inherently risky in the draft, and Harmon is definitely not a sure thing. Harmon needs to sharpen up his command and secondaries, which is not uncommon for young pitchers. Fortunately he possesses a terrific foundation to build upon and the Nationals look like they’re about to start churning out some very good arms soon. Harmon is certainly a pitcher to keep a close eye on in this tier of the ranks. (Brandon Ring)

I have seen a lot of hype on guys like Slater de Brun after recent drafts. Lately when speedy, smaller framed outfielders come out of the draft the common comparison is Corbin Carroll. Let’s face it, none of these guys are Corbin Carroll. He is a unicorn. That’s not to say de Brun cannot be a good MLB player, it’s just that more of these guys are Sal Frelick or Adam Eaton at their peak outcome. De Brun can fly, and reports suggest that he has a strong hit tool and approach. He was recently traded as a part of the package that sent Shane Baz to the Orioles. With any luck the Rays won’t still be playing at Tropicana Field when de Brun is ready for his debut, as it is one of the worst places to hit in the Majors. A more rational expectation for his ceiling is as a solid bat at the top of the order who can get you 30+ steals and score runs in piles. Expecting an MVP-caliber bat as a ceiling is almost always setting up for disappointment. (Brandon Ring)

 

I love this tier and again it may actually contain some big value picks based on my personal rankings. Cam Leiter I think is a forgotten man in this draft, but he has elite stuff, was drafted by the Dodgers, and if healthy could see a huge jump in the consensus around the industry. He has multiple strikeout pitches, an elite fastball with good ride and carry to go with some good secondaries. If he was healthy, I think we would be seeing him consistently being valued over Jaime Arnold and maybe it is a reach, but I do value him in that regard despite the health concerns.

My favorite player in the draft might be Tim Piasentin. He has good size at 6-foot-3, very good bat speed with quick hands, and some stand out exit velocities. He appears to launch the ball very well from the left side of the plate and may have some of the best power in this class as an 18-year-old. Like many, his hit tool is the biggest question mark right now and I believe he will silence those concerns sooner rather than later. His bat speed gives him an edge to improve his contact skills and he is in an organization with the Toronto Blue Jays that have been one of the best at limiting strikeouts, so he could be a big riser from this group. (Daniel Labude)

 

This last tier is a large group of players, it shows that after around 35, most selections just fuse into the “lottery ticket” types. The three players I would try and shoot for in drafts are Miguel Sime Jr., Michael Oliveto, and Brady Ebel. Sime Jr. can be a monster breakout in 2026. He has a big time fastball (topping 100 mph), as well as some good looking secondaries. The knock that dropped him in the MLB draft and for dynasty purposes was his reliever risk due to poor command. It did look like he started to improve and squash those concerns in his senior year of high school, if so, the sky is the limit for him. I would be latching on and enjoying the wild ride he’s going to be on. Michael Oliveto has big power potential and reminds me of someone like Josué Briceño. The bat really isn’t as much of a worry with him, it’s the amount of work he will need to put in to improve his defense behind the plate. Ebel has a smooth looking lefty swing and at 6-foot-3, there is room to project with his power potential. If you are wanting a lottery ticket, he is one I would be trying for.

One last thought, Talon Haley has the best story of the first-year-player draft season and could rise the highest come this time next year. A growth plate in his elbow led to Tommy John surgery, then he fought for his life after being diagnosed with stage 3 cancer, and then he had to have the internal brace surgery when he got a tear in his elbow pitching through chemo treatments. His pitch arsenal looks legit and you just have to root for him. (Brian Labude)