Introduction

Back in March I wrote about 11 pitching prospects I thought were worth watching in deep leagues heading into the 2025 season. As we are officially in the off-season, it’s past-time to check in to see how each of these pitchers did, and to give a few thoughts about their outlook for 2026. There was one clear winner in the bunch, but there is still plenty of intrigue in this group!

American League Prospects

Steven Zobac – Kansas City Royals

The 2024 Royals minor league pitcher of the year struggled out of the gates in his first two starts in 2025 before battling the IL for the rest of the season as he struggled with right patella tendinitis. If you aren’t familiar, tendinitis is an injury that tends to be nagging with highly variable return timelines, and Zobac appears to have struggled to put the injury behind him fully in-season. Zobac returned in mid-June and made 11 starts at Double-A Northwest Arkansas, but his season ended on August 7th when he left his start after just two batters. Truthfully, I’d pay no attention to Zobac’s stats in 2025, and instead I’d hope the tendinitis is fully behind him going into 2026. If Zobac is healthy I would expect him to join Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek at Triple-A Omaha as guys who could back-fill open rotation spots throughout the 2026 season.

A.J. Blubaugh – Houston Astros

As we hoped, A.J. Blubaugh finally got his chance in the big leagues in 2025, and he made it count! In 32 innings, Blubaugh compiled a 1.69 ERA and a stellar 0.88 WHIP. He continues to be a three-pitch pitcher, mixing in a sweeper and a changeup to go along with his fastball. A 19.4% K-BB and a swinging strike rate over 14% for all three pitches is promising, and Astros General Manager Dana Brown has said that Blubaugh will be considered as a rotation option for 2026. If all goes well, Blubaugh could settle in as a middle-rotation starter for the Astros, which would be a great outcome for the 25-year-old righty.

Will Dion – Cleveland Guardians

Will Dion spent all of the 2025 season in Triple-A Columbus for the second consecutive year. As expected, his HR/FB rate dropped back down to a more reasonable 9.5%, resulting in a respectable 4.09 ERA over 99 innings. Notably, Dion spent the season alternating between starting and pitching in relief, which suggests the Guardians may be viewing him as more of a true depth piece at this point. It’s still possible Dion finds some success in the majors in the years to come, but with a fastball that hardly touches 90 MPH and not yet being on the 40-man roster, it’s tough to see Dion’s path to consistent opportunities at the big league level at this stage. If there is one silver lining for the 5’10” lefty, it’s his 33.8% chase rate in 2025, which puts him in the 90th percentile at Triple-A.

Michael Forret – Baltimore Orioles

I labeled Michael Forret as a potential pop-up pitching prospect heading into 2025, and while he didn’t rise in the way that the next young man on this list did, there was plenty to like about what we saw from Forret this past season. While he missed all of May with lower back discomfort, he returned without issue in early June and was exceptional at both High-A Aberdeen and Double-A Chesapeake in 2025. All told, Forret notched a 32.3% strikeout rate to go along with just a 7.3% walk rate. Given that he only threw 14.1 innings at Double-A, I’d expect Forret to return to the Baysox to begin 2026. A quick promotion would be in order if he recreates the 1.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP he had there last year, and it’s possible the 6’3” righty knocks on the door in Baltimore before the 2026 season comes to a close.

Connelly Early – Boston Red Sox

Connelly Early was far and away the biggest hit in this group of pitchers. The 6’3” lefty dominated hitters at Double-A Portland and Triple-A Worcester, but it’s what Early did when he got called up to the majors for four starts in September that really has me excited. Early has five legitimately good pitches that he mixes well. He threw each at least 10% of the time with the Red Sox, and generated an above-average or better swinging strike rate on all five pitches. His 31.6% K-BB rate was elite, and the Red Sox showed a willingness to give him the ball in some of their most consequential games of the season. The biggest question for Early heading into 2026 is if he will have a rotation spot coming out of Spring Training, but as of now, I expect him to be given the chance. Early will be a core starting pitcher for the Red Sox for years to come.

Jose Corniell – Texas Rangers

I mentioned Corniell as a pitcher who was expected to miss most of the season, but would be worth watching for what he did when he returned. Well, Corniell stepped back on the mound in July and it took just 38 minor league innings for the Rangers to give the 22-year-old a cup of coffee with the big club to close out the season. In the limited sample in the minors, Corniell was excellent, sporting a 21.9% K-BB to go with a 1.89 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP.

Due to his late start to the 2025 season, the Rangers sent Corniell to the AFL this fall, where he logged 15.1 innings. For Corniell, the superficial stats are less relevant from the AFL than the fact that he was able to get some more innings under his belt, and I love that he used all five of his pitches at least 10% of the time. It’s no question that Corniell has the stuff to be an MLB starting pitcher, and while I’d be very surprised if he enters the season on the MLB roster in 2026, it’s likely that he will have the opportunity to hold down a rotation spot for the Rangers at some point in the season.

National League Prospects

Chen-Wei Lin – St. Louis Cardinals

Lin is an imposing figure on the mound. His 6’7” frame, 89th percentile extension, and mid-high 90’s fastball give plenty to dream on. Before 2025, Lin hadn’t pitched above Single-A, Palm Beach, but the 23-year-old spent 2025 between High-A Peoria and Double-A Springfield with very uneven results. While you’ve got to love the 31.4% K rate in the 2025 regular season, the 17.5% BB rate is very difficult to look past. Lin, like Corniell, went to the Arizona Fall League this year to get some extra innings under his belt, and it was more of the same there as he struck out 19 batters in 12 innings, while walking nine. Lin continues to be a deep league dart throw, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cardinals pivot to trying to develop him as a reliever in 2026 if the control issues don’t show signs of improvement.

Carlson Reed – Pittsburgh Pirates

Carlson Reed, like several others on this list, struggled with injuries in 2025. Reed missed several months with a back injury, and the 6’4” righty managed to compile 70 innings pitched this season, 63 of which were at High-A Greensboro. Control was the big bugaboo for Reed post-injury, and a 40.8% GB rate for a guy who has historically been a ground-ball pitcher tells me that he just wasn’t right all year. It was clear after the season that Reed needed more game action, so the Pirates sent him to the AFL where the ground ball rate is back up. Reed still isn’t a high strikeout arm, but he’s at his best when he’s keeping hitters off balance with his slider and his changeup. In the AFL he’s bumped his swinging strike rate from 10% in the regular season to 14.4%, putting him in the 72nd percentile in the league. I’m not totally out on Reed heading into 2026. There is a path to a mid-rotation arm here if he returns fully to form as a ground ball pitcher and he continues to refine the control of his pitches.

Humberto Cruz – San Diego Padres

The 18-year-old began the season at the complex, before moving up to Single-A Lake Elsinore on July 1st. The underlying stats at Single-A, especially when factoring in that he was just 18 years old, were pretty strong. He struck out 21.7% of batters, and walked 9.8%. His inflated 6.97 ERA in those 6 starts was largely driven by an astronomical 33.3% HR/FB rate, which should see a massive regression when we see Cruz again. Unfortunately, Cruz may not pitch at all in 2026 as he required an internal brace procedure to repair a torn UCL in September. Even if Cruz misses all of 2026, He will be just 20 years old for the whole 2027 season, and while I wouldn’t advocate holding him until then in all but the deepest leagues, there should be plenty of anticipation for the high-upside righty’s return when the time comes.

Joe Whitman – San Francisco Giants

While Joe Whitman’s 5.29 ERA over 117.1 innings at Double-A Richmond in 2025 leaves plenty to be desired, I actually think there was a lot to like in the 6’5” lefty’s season. His 24.2% K rate, 9.2% BB rate, and 3.60 xFIP are all strong marks, and it seems like Whitman was largely plagued by an unlucky .361 BABIP. I think Whitman showed enough in 2025 to warrant a promotion to Triple-A Sacramento to begin the 2026 season, setting himself up to join a crowded group vying for a rotation spot there and a potential look in the big leagues later in the season.

Zander Mueth – Pittsburgh Pirates

It was an uneven and injury-plagued season for Zander Mueth in 2025. Oddly enough, Mueth’s 2025 season mirrored Steven Zobac’s almost exactly. He made just two starts to begin the year before going on the IL, and came back in June before shutting down for the season in early August. All told, the righty made 10 starts at Single-A Bradenton, but pitched just 22 innings at the level. Mueth walked 21.6% of batters in his 22 Single-A innings, which — to state the obvious — needs to significantly improve if he is going to ascend through the minors.

Mueth might be an arm to pop back on the radar in the coming years. The Pirates have shown a very strong track record of success developing pitching in recent years, and they invested $1.8 million in Mueth in 2023, so I don’t expect them to give up on the 6’6” righty. But Mueth needs to cut his strikeout rate in half before I allow my interest to increase again.