Time for this month’s Dynasty Guru Roundtable.  We asked everyone what lessons they have learned so far this year, and the answers were varied and informative.  Please sit back, dive in, and find us on Bluesky or leave a comment below to share your thoughts!

Brandon Ring (ringb39@bsky.social)

In medium depth and deeper leagues, an elite hitting prospect has peak value at two points: The day they’re called up to the majors for the first time, and immediately after they’ve established themselves as elite players and fulfilled their promise. The lesson I’ve learned in the past 3-4 seasons is that buying a player as they’re about to debut is absolutely the wrong time to try to buy.

The lesson seems simple, but the gap in talent between the upper minor leagues and the Majors seems to get larger every season. The advanced scouting that Major League teams employ exacerbates that gap. There haven’t been many elite hitting prospects this decade that have debuted and dominated consistently without prolonged struggles.

Even hot starts are often met with adjustments from the league. Teams are also beginning to anticipate a top prospect who will get called up and work up a way to effectively approach that player. The most recent example is Roman Anthony of the Red Sox. He mashed fastballs in the minors but really struggled to make contact with everything else. Though he only has 19 plate appearances in his MLB career as I write this, a pattern is already emerging. Thus far, under 40% of the pitches that Anthony has seen are fastballs. True to the report, he’s not missing them (7.7% whiff), and his exit velocities have been solid for a small sample. On pitches classified as breaking balls and off-speed, his whiff rates are 33% and 25% respectively, and when he makes contact, it’s weak.

What do I think is the lesson here? It’s not that Anthony is a bad hitter. He is merely a recent example I’m using. Major Leaguers will develop strategies to get hitters out. The ability to adjust to how pitchers are approaching you as a hitter often determines future success. Recent trends seem to be early struggles, a demotion with a focus on fixing issues that were exposed by MLB pitching, then a return to the majors with varying degrees of success afterwards.

Find an opportunity to acquire a top prospect right after they’ve failed to make an immediate impact. His price will still present some risk; however I have found those prices on good young players to be much more palatable than at any other point.

Drew Klein (@drewgotigers.bsky.social)

In the category of “Do as I say, not as I do,” trust that major league teams will find a place for good hitters in their lineups. This preseason, I either wrote on the site or talked on the pod about Ben Rice, Agustin Ramirez, Drake Baldwin, and Alejandro Osuna (and likely others) as quality bats who will have fantasy impact someday, but look blocked in their organization for the near future. That would have made them good players to invest in for later, but in my “win now” teams, I shied away from them, looking for more immediate impact players. These four are all now in the majors, as are some others I didn’t mention, like Houston’s Cam Smith. Lesson 1: roster quality players and rest easy knowing that you won’t have to wait as long as you think you will.

In the category of “he’s a professional and this is a hobby for me,” Harry Ford knows more about hitting than I do and might turn out to be a pretty good major leaguer. This preseason, armed only with Double-A statistics, I was pretty strong in my conviction that Ford needs to swing the bat more. He does, but my conviction is waning. Now that we can see more details in his Triple-A stats, even though he’s still only swinging 41.6% of the time, his chase rate on pitches out of the zone is a very low 17%.  He’s swinging at 67% of pitches in the zone, and has an 85% contact rate on those pitches, and his slash line has gone from .249/.377/.367 in Double-A to .315/.427/495 in Triple-A. Keep swinging at strikes Harry, and don’t worry about Big Dumper – read the previous paragraph, they’ll make room somewhere.

In the category of “things weren’t always better in the past,” this year’s FYPD class wasn’t as bad as some of us thought. As Chris and I talked about in the last JTR30 update, there are a few second rounders who are making a good first impression as professionals and are likely on waiver wires in shallower dynasty leagues. You may not be able to get Gage Jump (ATH) anymore; he’s been trending up, but take a look at Khal Stephen (TOR) and David Shields (KCR). All three are pitchers, and we know the inherent risk, but if you’re like me and prefer to stockpile, hoping that even a 25% hit rate will net a future starter or two, these guys are worth a look.

David Gofman (@dgofman.bsky.social)

Jump on pitching breakouts early in the season.

Baseball fans have a funny relationship with sample sizes. Sometimes small sample sizes are touted as reasons not to adjust a player’s long-term outlook, while other times those sample sizes are clear indicators that a player has made a meaningful change or adjustment.

Gauging whether a player’s jump in production or effectiveness is “real” early in the season is tricky. There are plenty of recent examples of players who have gotten off to white hot starts before inevitably crashing back down to earth (does anyone remember what Rece Hinds did last year with the Reds when he made his major league debut in July??). I have always fallen in the more patient bucket, where a player’s body of work carries much more weight than a 2-4 week sample size. This approach has worked well for me with prospects, where volatility reigns supreme and we are all chasing the next big thing, but it has consistently left me late to the party with one particular category of player: the breakout pitcher.

Pitcher development, to risk stating the obvious, works on a very different timeline than hitting development. Adding a new pitch, bumping up a few MPH in velocity, adjusting pitch mix, and improving command are concrete changes that pitchers can make in the off-season that can result in meaningful gains. In addition, these changes tend to be a lot more “sticky” when they show up early in the season than a hot couple of weeks for a hitter. This year’s breakout arms include Brandon Clarke of the Red Sox, Gage Jump of the Athletics, Carlos Lagrange of the Yankees, and Nolan McLean of the Mets, and all of them hit the ground running out of the gate this year and haven’t looked back. While I was able to grab a few of the breakout arms in a few leagues this year, I missed out on some opportunities because I wanted to see the success sustained a bit longer. Next year, I’ll be making a concerted effort to jump on pitchers that appear to be breaking out early, and my humble suggestion is that you do the same!

Joe Juliette (@joejuliette.bsky.social)

Don’t mess with the elbow.

I am young enough that the only thing I remember about watching the movie “Don’t Mess With the Zohan” is the title. Well, this year I figured out what ‘the Zohan’ is in fantasy baseball, that would of course be pitching injuries.

Following Strider-gate (I’m starting something here) in early 2024, I vowed I would never get burned so bad again. I committed even more heavily towards my prevailing pitching strategy of buying injury prone, or currently injured, pitchers. I scooped up all the Glasnow, McClanahan, DeGrom, and Grayson Rodriguez I could find. I started to become the fantasy baseball version of the Dodgers. Unfortunately, when you don’t have an unlimited checkbook, losing Snell and Glasnow is not such an easy obstacle to overcome, and can frankly sink a fantasy season. In one league, the combined loss of Glasnow, McClanahan, Sasaki, and now Jobe has obliterated any reasonable expectation of competing.

Now, I know I am not truly uncovering anything remarkably new here, nor does anybody want to read me crying about injuries like Uncle Rico. The elbow carousel is an age-old dance. So naturally, the question becomes, what is the next step?

I think the approach is two-pronged. First, I think we need to heavily consider moving off guys like Skenes, Skubal, Yamamoto, Gilbert, Crochet, and Ragans. Check out the top 5-10 of any dynasty pitching rankings over the last few years and you’ve got a new crew every time. Cole, Burnes, and Buehler are just a few of the elite pitchers of recent years past that have significantly diminished value today in dynasty circles. This is oftentimes accounted for within dynasty markets, however I feel that Skenes and Skubal are beginning to feel significantly safer than they historically should be considered. Corbin Burnes, the most consistent pitcher at the top of our rankings, serves as the prime example of how this value can fall from under pitchers in the blink of an eye. In a world where you can reasonably move Skenes or Skubal for Jackson Merrill, Oneil Cruz, and other young elite hitters, I think that move has to be made.

As much as I don’t want it to be, pitching is still a necessity to compete and win your leagues. So if I am suggesting that you sell the best pitchers in the game, where do we find the pitching we need? Well, instead of being the Dodgers like I once was, I think we should try to be the Rays. Now, not all of us have homemade Stuff+ models, but I am not suggesting that you need that sort of edge. What I recommend is targeting pitchers with flaws, ones that exist on the periphery of the prevailing discussion. Guys like Cristopher Sanchez, Ryan Pepiot, Carlos Rodon, and Nick Pivetta have given you 75-80% of the production of those elite arms, and at multiple times in the past 2-3 years were extremely gettable in dynasty leagues. You are going to take your lumps with this strategy, but the small misses, the occasional blow-ups, will hurt much less than the notification that your star pitcher has left their start early. Generally, I have been looking for former well-regarded prospects that have struggled with their initial taste of MLB play. Guys that currently have that blend of minimal-hype and decent upside right now that catch my eye are Chase Petty, Cade Povich, and Kumar Rocker.

If there is one thing I know for certain, it is that I will never crack the code on pitching. The Zohan is not to be messed with for a reason. Still, we must try. While this approach is surely subject to change, I feel that a low-investment cost towards pitchers may be the only way to remain stable in such a high-risk environment.

Daniel Labude (orcabaseball.bsky.social)

The lessons I have learned so far this season have come in many ways. The most obvious one that stands out, has to be patience. Patience in many areas are key to having long term success in a league. You need to be patient when injuries occur, first and foremost. Do not panic early in the season and understand everyone will have injuries and especially pitching injuries. They are coming early and often nowadays. The best way to play out the season is to try and find a deal that will get you between the current time and when the injured player is coming back, don’t try and make a big splash to recover all of the value you have lost, unless it is a good deal. Absolutely do not force a deal, that is how things snowball and you make bad decisions. Also, you must have patience with relievers. I wrote about it earlier in the season and it continues to hold true. High end relievers usually figure it out again, so if you panic, you may do more harm than good.

On the prospect front, the biggest lesson I have learned, or more so was reaffirmed, has to be activity is key. If you are active in leagues that allow in-season adds, you can corner the market on many pop-up prospects and easily use that method to build a minor league system that can create a dynasty. This can allow you to use your draft capital and current prospects as valuable pieces in trades to make your major league roster better. Also, time is becoming more of a prospect’s friend. If they haven’t broken out in the major leagues by 23, it isn’t a death blow with the higher frequency in which prospects are blooming later in their 20s. It is a long season for the major leagues and the minors. The delicate balance of when to drop a prospect can be tough, but be sure you are ready to drop someone before you do.

Brian Labude (@polarbearbaseball.bsky.social)

This season has taught me a few lessons and some of them may not be so popular or agreed upon. The first one is related to roster development in dynasty leagues, specifically deeper leagues, but I will be applying it to all of my leagues. The lesson revolves around an acronym and its one that I have not liked for a while and this season has taught me to lean even further into my beliefs. TINSTAAPP, it stands for “There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.” I’ve been anti-TINSTAAPP for a while, I’m now probably the most anti-TINSTAAPP person there is. Pitching in most leagues, especially deep leagues, are not only the most valuable, but also the most expensive to try and trade for. It comes with a lot of pain at times when pitchers go down with a torn UCL, but you just have to weather the storm, because most of them come back just as good as they were. Pitching in deep leagues and certainly high-end pitching prospects are worth more than gold. Investing in the top-tier pitching prospects not only gives you currency to help your team by cashing them for more than they are worth to pitching needy teams, they can also help bolster your rotations when the inevitable injuries pop up. You just aren’t going to find worthy pitchers in deep league free agency. This actually brings me to another lesson, you need major depth in your rotation. Teams can’t really get by with a couple of starters, you need depth to keep you afloat and the type of depth is important. Look to fill your depth with pitchers that aren’t volatile, pitchers that have real-life rotation spots locked in and have good stat production. Pitchers like Lucas Giolito, Davis Martin, Adrian Houser, and Patrick Corbin can help keep your rotations alive and are not hot commodities (good changeup and splitter pitchers can be just as good as high-velocity pitchers).

The second lesson I have learned is to trust your gut with regards to prospects and tools. Teams like the Chicago White Sox and Toronto Blue Jays have shown to be really good in the off-season and in-season at altering young players’/prospects’ swings and pitch mechanics to get them back on track. They can be on the fly, like the White Sox changing Miguel Vargas’ swing over a couple of games and resulting in him becoming a potential all-star caliber hitter now. They can even be more gradual in changes, like George Wolkow’s stance and swing progression over the first two months of the season. It has slowly changed and now he is raking at Single-A with a slash line of .405/.490/.690 in June, to go along with four home runs in just 12 games. The big eye-popping stat he has during that span is his vast improvement with his strikeout rate, down to 12.2%.

This brings me to my last big lesson I have learned. Do not rely solely on strikeout and contact rates. Know what they are driven by or try to find out, it’s not always easy to do so. Just like with pitching prospects, tweaks and changes can really alter a prospect’s trajectory. Looking at just their snapshot zoomed out could leave you missing vital improvements that could help you snag a prospect before the community finally catches on.