Roundtable time, baby! Today, the Gurus discuss some hot starts that we’re buying. Dig in!

Drew Klein (@drewgotigers.bsky.social) 

Casey Mize

It shouldn’t be too surprising that anyone is buying a hot start from a former first overall pick in the draft, but Casey Mize’s injuries and early career performance have brought us to this point. In fact, looking at some surface stats might indicate that we shouldn’t buy this start. After all, his 19% K% is about his career average, his 7.4% BB% is good but is also in the range of his career average, so wouldn’t a regression be expected?

Maybe not.

First off, Mize is locating his pitches better within the zone. So far, he’s posted a hard hit percentage of a career low 34%, 10 points lower than last year. His in-zone contact rate has dropped from over 80% pre-injury to 76%. As a result, hitters aren’t laying off the slider and squaring up on the fastball as they once were, and his line drive percentage is down from 21% to 12%. The fly ball rate is up, which could be worrisome, but as long as the hard hit rate stays low, it won’t translate to home runs.

Since returning from injuries last year, he’s added 2 mph to his fastball and sinker, his splitter, which was his calling card in college, is much improved with an additional 2 mph and more vertical movement, and even his slider has added velocity but slider usage has dropped from over 20% to under 10%. His pitch mix has changed, and he’s throwing his best pitches (Fastball, Sinker, Splitter) more often.  What’s been especially effective is that all three of those pitches are coming from the same release point and are tunneling well, so the hitters are being fooled more often.

I think it’s important to note that the secret to his uptick in velocity is not just the health of his arm but a focus within the Tigers organization on improving pitchers’ leg strength. Mize and others on the staff have noted that by not skipping leg day, they’re able to add velocity without additional stress on their arms and backs. (Boomer note: it worked for Tom Seaver…)

Jonathan Aranda

As I sit down to write this, Jonathan Aranda has a slash line of .355/.438/.677, all of which are in the top five in the majors. While we haven’t seen this level of production from him in the majors before this, we have seen him put up similar numbers in Triple-A in 2023, and to a lesser degree, in 2022. After losing last year to injuries (finger, oblique), he’s poised to show he can hit major league pitching as well as he’s hit minor league pitching throughout his career.  

His chase rates are low, and his zone contact is about league average, which contributes to his batting average and on-base percentage. The big jump in his profile so far this year is his hard hit rate which is over 60%.  Admittedly, that’s not sustainable, but it is encouraging and it is accompanied by a 4 mph increase in his average exit velocity to 95 mph. Additionally, his ground ball rate is down from 50% last year to 39% this year, and his fly ball rate is up from 35% to 47%. More fly balls hit harder by a left-handed hitter playing in a home park with a short right field?  I’ll take the bet that the home runs will come.  As long as he can stop running into his own catcher, he’s on track to be a valuable fantasy player, and I’m buying this start. 

Brandon Ring (@ringb39.bsky.social)

Kyle Karros

Kyle Karros is not an electrifying athlete, he wasn’t a top draft pick (5th rounder in 2023), and he’s not highly ranked on any Rockies prospect list. In leagues with 15 or fewer teams, he is probably available for nothing, which is a price that I am always happy to pay. He may be rostered in deeper leagues, but given how little hype surrounds Karros, his price tag shouldn’t be too high.

Karros is currently sitting on a 207 OPS+ to start his Double-A season in Hartford after posting a 137 OPS+ in 2024. He has walked 15% of the time this year while striking out 21%.  His 6’-5” frame also has some room to fill out with good weight that will add power to his profile.

After streaming several Yard Goats games, I see a hitter with an excellent approach at the plate. He has an effortless, controlled, and quick swing despite his long levers.  Karros identifies pitches well, often taking 2-strike chase pitches that other hitters in Double-A would flail at. He works deep into counts and battles in each plate appearance that I watched. He lined off-speed pitches into the opposite field gaps and stung high 90’s fastballs.

I don’t think that Double-A has much to challenge Karros, and a promotion to Triple-A will shed a lot of light on him as a prospect. Right now, I feel a lot more confident in Karros’s bat than I do in a number of prospects in the 100-200 overall range. I don’t think he’s going to be very flashy, but I think he can be a very solid .260-.270 hitter who can hit 20-25 homers out of the 3B position.  I would also not be surprised if Karros makes his Major League debut sometime in 2026.

Brandon Clarke

The Red Sox might be at it again. Last year, it was Kristian Campbell; this year, they may have another late pick breakout in Brandon Clarke. He was selected out of the junior college ranks in the 5th round in the 2024 draft.

Clarke is currently overpowering hitters at Low-A Salem, but I don’t think he’ll be there for long. He features a high-90’s fastball that he throws out of a three-quarters arm slot. In the two starts I streamed, his preferred offspeed pitch was a mid-low 80’s sweeper that he was able to throw in the zone or use as a chase pitch to lefties. He mixed in a short slider and a firm 89-91 mph changeup as well.  

Aside from the normal pitching prospect caveats and warnings, Clarke is one of the few low-minors pitchers that I am trying hard to acquire in my deeper leagues. Clarke ticks a number of boxes that I value in a pitching prospect. He throws strikes with his pitches, he throws hard, and his delivery is athletic and repeatable. Like any pitcher, he needs to continue refining his arsenal, but it’s not hard to envision him becoming at least a high-leverage reliever. In shallower leagues it would be better to wait until it’s easier to forecast him into at least a high strikeout mid-rotation arm, but that outcome is not difficult to envision even after only six professional innings.

Brian Labude (@polarbearbaseball.bsky.social)

Fernando Tatís Jr.

We are just over three weeks into the 2025 Major League Baseball season, and we have a ton of hot starts to dissect. For me, I’m buying Fernando Tatís Jr. and his blazing hot start to this year. Tatís Jr. is slashing .358/.436/.691 with eight home runs, and seven stolen bases. His barrel rates are close to his 2021 season, 20% compared to 21.3%. His average exit velocity has also improved and even surpassed his 2021 numbers, 94.4 mph versus 93.9 mph. He has increased his in-zone contact rate to a career high of 86.8%, and his swing rate on meatball pitches has seen a similar increase coming in at 95%. He has 10 multi-hit games out of the 21 on the season, showing he has been consistent across the first month and didn’t just have a hot series. 

Logan Henderson 

It’s been just one start in the majors for Logan Henderson, but I’m all in on this guy and his fastball/changeup combo on the mound. He laid waste to a hot Athletics lineup across six innings, striking out nine, and only giving up one run. He used predominantly just the fastball and changeup, but it was enough to keep hitters off balance and struggling. He gets really good induced vertical break on his fastball, he averaged 17.5 inches on Sunday versus the Athletics. This plays well up in the zone and allows him to tunnel the changeup off of that. Mixing in a little more of his cutter/slider will boost his play even more and may give him an upside of someone like Lucas Giolito (during his good years), or better. 

Daniel Labude (@orcabaseball.bsky.social)

Trevor Story

The hitter I am buying into after their hot start is Trevor Story. He looks like his old self at the start of the season and is making an early statement as one of the best shortstops in baseball again. He has hit .337/.366/.528, with five home runs and six stolen bases. This is back in line with his Colorado days, where he routinely put up a batting average close to .300 and hit 30 or more home runs, while making a run at 30 stolen bases. His hard hit rates, barrel rates, exit velocities, and bat speed are all up. To help sustain his success, he is striking out at a lower rate this year. He was at 31.1% in 2024 and is currently down to 28.1%. 

Kris Bubic

The pitcher I am buying based on their early season hot start would have to be Kris Bubic. The reason I am buying his hot start is that he is pitching even better than he did at the start of 2023. Bubic came out hot that year, but Tommy John surgery after only three starts cut his season short. This year, he has a higher strikeout rate, a higher whiff rate, and is allowing less hard contact with more ground balls. This has led to a great start,  with him pitching to the tune of a 1.88 ERA and three quality starts. The walks are a little high, but the rest of his profile appears very sustainable and only a few ticks down compared to his stellar relief pitching numbers from 2024. It really does look like he can be an above-average starting pitcher. 

Donovan Miller (@spittingseedsbb.bsky.social)

Wilyer Abreu

Though this may be a player for deeper formats only, I am bought in on Wilyer Abreu versus right-handed pitching. Facing righties this season, Wilyer has a .306/.419/.581 slash line with four home runs, 14 RBI, 13 runs. More impressive may be his above-average 11.8% barrel percentage and 91.7 MPH average exit velocity for 2025. All of these are consistent with his career numbers. Sporting a 16.7% walk percentage, Wilyer is seeing the ball very well this season while raising his walk rate and lowering his K% during his past two seasons, he is in the top 10 percentage for Weighted On Base Average this season at .393. Given his poor track record versus left-handed pitching, he will likely not be an everyday player, but I am buying his success against righties. He can be a consistent supplier of platoon power and pitch in 10 stolen bases along the way.

Max Meyer

Okay, you can point out several pitchers who are off to a hotter start, but for me, Max Meyer is more of a validation pick. I have acquired Max in multiple dynasty and redraft formats over the past three seasons, always hoping this was the year, and I believe this IS the year. Meyer is not the perfect pitcher and will have his ups and downs. Injured for his 2023 campaign, Meyer started 2024 flashing some nice stuff, holding a 2.12 ERA through his first three starts. Meyer would end up slowly slipping, however, finishing the year with a 5.68 ERA and 1.421 WHIP. Pitching from a new arm angle this season, 2025 looks much more promising. Meyer has a 2.63 ERA,  1.125 WHIP, and 27:7 strikeouts to walks over 24 innings. Meyer has added speed to all of his offerings this season, but it is his slider that has been virtually unhittable. Some regression will likely occur in 2025, but Meyer’s slider has produced 22 of his 27 strikeouts with a .091 batting average and .145 expected batting average so far on the year. The Marlins team will hold Meyer back from his true potential, and he must keep his fastball out of the heart of the plate. But I think this season is a turning point for Meyer, and who knows, maybe a trade is in his future?